Proiect Simulari de Marketing

7/21/2019 Proiect Simulari de Marketing

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Universitatea Valahia Targoviste

Proiect la Simulari de marketing

Studenti:

Specializarea: MarketingAnul: III

Facultatea de Stiinte Economice


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Pe piata de teleonie mo!ila din "omania sunt prezente # mari

companii : $range% Vodaone si Telekom& Se urmareste previziunea

raporturilor dintre ele% respectiv a ponderii pe care o vor o!tine in cadrul

pietei& In acest scop se poate recurge la un model matematic pro!a!ilistic%numit 'anturile Markov&

(upa ultimele rapoarte% $range este liderul acestui segment economic

din "omania cu o cota de piata de )#*% concurentul principal Vodaone

avand o cota de piata de +,%+* % in timp ce Telekom detine ++%-* din clienti

.restul de / procente 0ind impartite intre ceilalti operatori1% potrivit

hotne2s&ro&

In momentul de inceput a procesului de previziune considerat

momentul 3 % cota de piata a 0ecarui operator de teleonie mo!ila esteurmatoarea : ))&44* $range% #3&-5* Vodaone si +)&)5* Telekom&

Sonda6ul anterior a sta!ilit un coe0cient de 0delitate constant pe o

perioada de timp de o luna% de ,3* la 0rma $range% -3* la 0rma Vodaone

si 53* la 0rma Telekom& 7ei 83* care parasesc 0rma $range se indreapta

5* catre Vodaone si #* catre Telekom% cei +3* care parasesc 0rma

Vodaone se indreapta 8+* catre $range si -* catre Telekom si cei #3* care

parasesc Telekom se indreapta +3* catre $range si 83* catre Vodaone&

Pornind de la aceste date% se cere:a1 Sa se previzioneze modi0carea cotelor de piata ale celor # companiiconcurente in urmatoarele 8+ luni&!1 Sa se evalueze aza din in care 0rmele se a9a in momentul zero si in lunileurmatoarec1 Sa se determine ce cote de piata detin $range% Vodaone si Telekom lamomentul T/ si T8+


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a1

Orange Vodafone TelekomOrange p11= 0,90 p12= 0,07 p13= 0,03

Vodafone p21= 0,12 p22= 0,80 p23= 0,08

Telekom p31= 0,20 p32= 0,10 p33= 0,70

T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5

Orange 44,66% 49.02% 51.9% 54.08% 55.48% 56.18%

Vodafone 30.87% 30.35% 29.53% 28.74% 28.68% 28.65%

Telekom 24.47% 20.63% 18.57% 17.18% 15.48% 15.17%

T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

Orange 56.88% 57.66% 58.16% 58.45% 58.73% 58.95% 59.02%

Vodafone 28.62% 27.86% 27.73% 27.71% 27.64% 27.56% 27.55%

Telekom 14.50% 14.45% 14.10% 13.84% 13.63% 13.49% 13.43%

T1

P Orange = 0.45*0.90+0.31*0.12+0.24*0.20=0.405+0.0372+0.048= 49.02%

P Vodafone = 0.45*0.07+0.31*0.80+0.24*0.10= 0.0315+0.248+0.024= 30.35%

P Teleo! = 0.45*0.03+0.31*0.08+0.24*0.70=0.0135+0.0248+0.168=20.63%

T2

P Orange = 0.49*0.90+0.30*0.12+0.21*0.20= 51.9%

P Vodafone = 0.49*0.07+0.30*0.80+0.21*0.10= 29.53%

P Teleo!= 0.49*0.03+0.30*0.08+0.21*0.70=18.57%

T3

P Orange = 0.52*0.90+0.29*0.12+0.19*0.20=54.08%

P Vodafone = 0.52*0.07+0.29*0.80+0.19*0.10= 28.74%

P Teleo! = 0.52*0.03+0.29*0.08+0.19*0.70= 17.18%


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T4

P Orange = 0.54*0.90+0.29*0.12+0.17*0.20=55.48%

P Vodafone = 0.54*0.07+0.29*0.80+0.17*0.10=28.68%

P Teleo! = 0.54*0.03+0.29*0.08+0.17*0.70 = 15.84%

T5

P Orange = 0.55*0.90+0.29*0.12+0.16*0.20=56.18%

P Vodafone = 0.55*0.07+0.29*0.80+0.16*0.10=28.65%

P Teleo! = 0.55*0.03+0.29*0.08+0.16*0.70 = 15.17%

T6

P Orange = 0.56*0.90+0.29*0.12+0.15*0.20=56.88%

P Vodafone = 0.56*0.07+0.29*0.80+0.15*0.10=28.62%P Teleo! = 0.56*0.03+0.29*0.08+0.15*0.70=14.5%

T7

P Orange = 0.57*0.90+0.28*0.12+0.15*0.20=57.66%

P Vodafone = 0.57*0.07+0.28*0.80+0.15*0.10=27.86%

P Teleo! = 0.57*0.03+0.28*0.08+0.15*0.70=14.45%

T8

P Orange = 0.577*0.90+0.278*0.12+0.145*0.20= 58.16%

P Vodafone = 0.577*0.07+0.278*0.80+0.145*0.10= 27.73%P Teleo! = 0.577*0.03+0.278*0.08+0.145*0.70= 14.10%

T9

P Orange = 0.581*0.90+0.278*0.12+0.141*0.20= 58.45%

P Vodafone = 0.581*0.07+0.278*0.80+0.141*0.10= 27.71%

P Teleo! = 0.581*0.03+0.278*0.08+0.141*0.70=13.84%

T10

P Orange = 0.585*0.90+0.277*0.12+0.138*0.20= 58.73%

P Vodafone = 0.585*0.07+0.277*0.80+0.138*0.10=27.64%

P Teleo! = 0.585*0.03+0.277*0.08+0.138*0.70=13.63%

T11

P Orange = 0.588*0.90+0.276*0.12+0.136*0.20= 58.95%

P Vodafone = 0.588*0.07+0.276*0.80+0.136*0.10= 27.56%

P Teleo! = 0.588*0.03+0.276*0.08+0.136*0.70= 13.49%


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T12

P Orange=0.589*0.90+0.276*0.12+0.135*0.20= 59.02%

P Vodafone = 0.589*0.07+0.276*0.80+0.135*0.10= 27.55%

P Teleo! = 0.589*0.03+0.276*0.08+0.135*0.70= 13.43%

"#

3 + ) 4 - 83 8+ 8)3

83

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#3&-5#3/+,&/#+-&5)+-&4-+-&4/+-&4++5&-4+5&5#+5&58+5&4)+5&/4+5&//

))&4

),&3+

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//&)-/4&8-/4&--/5&44

/-&8//-&)//-&5#/-&,//,&3+

$range Vodaone Telekom

$pa &! 'e o"'er(a )n graf)&l de !a) '', &o!pan)a &are de)ne !onopoll pe p)aa de

elefon)e !o")la d)n o!an)a e'e Orange &are )nreg)'reaa &oe de p)aa d)n &e )n &e !a) !ar)


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pe par&r'l anl), a-ngand de la 44,6% , a(and o &on)na &re'ere &are a-nge pana la pragl

de 59,02%.

Vodafone, 'pre deo'e")re de Orange, )nreg)'reaa o 'oara '&adere pe p)aa de elefon)e !o")la,

a-ngand repa de la 30,87% pana la pragl de 27,55%, dpa &! re)e'e d)n graf)&l de !a)

''.

$a&a &e) de la Vodafone a a( o 'oara '&adere, n a&ela') l&r )l pe! 'pne de'pre

Teleo!, &are '&ad d)n &e )n &e !a) !l ') !a) ())")l, a-ngand de la o &oa de p)aa de 24,47%

la pragl de 13,43%, a(and o '&adere a&&elerana.

T5

$range /4*Vodaone +,*

Telekom 8/*

$pa &! 'e o"'er(a )n graf)&l alara la !o!enl T5, re'pe&)( lna a &)n&ea de &al&l, &oa

&e !a) !are pe p)aa de elefon)e !o")la d)n o!an)a e'e de)na de Orange & 56%, f))nd

r!aa de Vodafone & 29% ') Teleo! & 15%.


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T12

$range /,*Vodaone +-*

Telekom 8#*

n l)!a lna de &al&l,re'pe&)( T12, o"'er(a! &a Orange ra!ane pe pr)!l lo& ') pe dea'pra

are o &re'ere & 3 pro&ene, Vodafone ra!ane pe lo&l do) )nreg)'rand o '&adere de 1 pro&en

)ar Teleo! o&pa o l)!l lo& ') )nreg)'reaa o '&adere de 2 pn&e pro&enale.

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