macroeconomie (1)

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Perioada PIB 2000-T.1 13538.4 1948.4 10690.8 2000-T.2 17519.8 3279.1 13774.4 2000-T.3 23105.4 4664.9 16958.8 2000-T.4 26821 5352.8 20978.4 2001-T.1 20395.3 3240.1 17096 2001-T.2 26399.4 5454.8 21265.7 2001-T.3 32939.9 7406.3 22818.5 2001-T.4 38211.2 8070.2 30997.1 2002-T.1 26231.7 4202.7 22820.6 2002-T.2 34741.4 7050.9 27472.5 2002-T.3 41944.3 10018.2 28611.8 2002-T.4 49099.6 11094.7 37990.8 2003-T.1 34396.9 5350.9 28428.8 2003-T.2 44395.1 9301.2 35054.1 2003-T.3 54354.5 13231.5 38100.9 2003-T.4 64281.1 14613 47812 2004-T.1 43259.4 6787.3 37020.1 2004-T.2 55258.4 12164.7 44962.1 2004-T.3 68367.5 17441.2 47613.3 2004-T.4 80482.7 17457.1 61903.5 2005-T.1 52290.3 8146.7 45531.3 2005-T.2 65037.4 14988.8 54335.6 2005-T.3 78777.4 21427.3 56144.9 2005-T.4 92849.5 23963.8 70916.9 2006-T.1 61828.7 10512.2 54615.8 2006-T.2 77102.2 18102.7 61653.3 2006-T.3 92818.4 28001.2 65569 2006-T.4 112901.3 31655.9 86603.2 2007-T.1 74162.8 14820.3 64108.9 2007-T.2 92519.5 25095.6 72122.4 2007-T.3 112222.9 40302.7 75084.8 2007-T.4 137101.6 45426.7 101907.2 2008-T.1 93862.8 20859.4 80870.8 2008-T.2 116467.3 36208.2 89733.5 2008-T.3 142490.7 57312.3 96762.8 2008-T.4 161833.2 49884.5 113695.9 2009-T.1 96616.7 22995.3 78393.1 2008-T.2 112073 26564.3 83082.4 2009-T.3 130288.7 41321 86339.5 2009-T.4 152295.3 34945 109254.3 FBCF (formare bruta capital fix) Consumul efectiv al gospodariilor populatiei(Consum)

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studiu de caz macroeconomie ase cibernetica

Transcript of macroeconomie (1)

Page 1: macroeconomie (1)

Perioada PIB 2000-T.1 13538.4 1948.4 10690.82000-T.2 17519.8 3279.1 13774.42000-T.3 23105.4 4664.9 16958.82000-T.4 26821 5352.8 20978.42001-T.1 20395.3 3240.1 170962001-T.2 26399.4 5454.8 21265.72001-T.3 32939.9 7406.3 22818.52001-T.4 38211.2 8070.2 30997.12002-T.1 26231.7 4202.7 22820.62002-T.2 34741.4 7050.9 27472.52002-T.3 41944.3 10018.2 28611.82002-T.4 49099.6 11094.7 37990.82003-T.1 34396.9 5350.9 28428.82003-T.2 44395.1 9301.2 35054.12003-T.3 54354.5 13231.5 38100.92003-T.4 64281.1 14613 478122004-T.1 43259.4 6787.3 37020.12004-T.2 55258.4 12164.7 44962.12004-T.3 68367.5 17441.2 47613.32004-T.4 80482.7 17457.1 61903.52005-T.1 52290.3 8146.7 45531.32005-T.2 65037.4 14988.8 54335.62005-T.3 78777.4 21427.3 56144.92005-T.4 92849.5 23963.8 70916.92006-T.1 61828.7 10512.2 54615.8

2006-T.2 77102.2 18102.7 61653.32006-T.3 92818.4 28001.2 655692006-T.4 112901.3 31655.9 86603.22007-T.1 74162.8 14820.3 64108.92007-T.2 92519.5 25095.6 72122.42007-T.3 112222.9 40302.7 75084.82007-T.4 137101.6 45426.7 101907.22008-T.1 93862.8 20859.4 80870.82008-T.2 116467.3 36208.2 89733.52008-T.3 142490.7 57312.3 96762.82008-T.4 161833.2 49884.5 113695.92009-T.1 96616.7 22995.3 78393.12008-T.2 112073 26564.3 83082.42009-T.3 130288.7 41321 86339.52009-T.4 152295.3 34945 109254.3

FBCF (formare bruta capital fix)

Consumul efectiv al gospodariilorpopulatiei(Consum)

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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.9883197074R Square 0.9767758441Adjusted R Square 0.9761646821Standard Error 6246.4356379Observations 40

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 62359569513 62359569513 1598.22739 1.2E-032Residual 38 1482682411 39017958.18Total 39 63842251924

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Intercept -4110.661436 2128.832742 -1.93094617 0.06097528 -8420.258 198.9351

1.3967463405 0.034938017 39.97783625 1.1665E-032 1.326018 1.467475

Aceste rezultate sunt interpretate in documentul WORD.

tabelul de mai sus ofera informatii despre influenta Consumului efectiv al gospodariilor pop, asupra PIB.

analog, se face modelul pentru PIB si FCBF , unde : x range : $D$2:$D$41 si y range : $B$2:$B$41

rezultatul ptr modelul PIB-FBCF , este :

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.9571542954R Square 0.9161443452Adjusted R Square 0.9139376175

Consumul efectiv al gospodariilor populatiei(Consum)

A. Bonitatea Modelului

B. Descompunerea variatiei totale, TESTUL F

C.Estimatii pentru - coeficienti;- erorile standard;- Testul t ;- intervale de incredere

Tabelul de mai jos este determinat astfel :Tools-Data Analysis-Regression si se trec :in x range : $D$2:$D$41(Variabila independenta )in y range : $B$2:$B$41(Variabila dependenta)output range : orice celule libere din foaie .de exemplu in acest caz $G$10:$H$15 - sunt suficiente- nu trebuie specificata toata zona celulelor pentru tabelul de mai jos,pentru ca automat , rezultatul de mai jos va fi asezat astfel;- in perioada avem : anii 2000-2009 cu trimestrele : T1,T2,T3,T4-pt fiecare an ;-datele -de pe INSS.ro-milioane RON.

A. Bonitatea Modelului

B. Descompunerea variatiei totale, TESTUL F

C.Estimatii pentru - coeficienti;- erorile standard;- Testul t ;- intervale de incredere

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Standard Error 11869.3921247Observations 40

ANOVAdf SS

Regression 1 58488718086 58488718086 415.15966 4.7E-022Residual 38 5353533838 140882469.4Total 39 63842251924

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Intercept 20824.5389412 3107.177348 6.702076067 6.2391E-008 14534.39 27114.69X Variable 1 2.7249892189 0.133738736 20.37546711 4.7243E-022 2.454249 2.995729

B. Descompunerea variatiei totale, TESTUL F

C.Estimatii pentru - coeficienti;- erorile standard;- Testul t ;- intervale de incredere

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Upper 95%

tabelul de mai sus ofera informatii despre influenta Consumului efectiv al gospodariilor pop, asupra PIB.

C.Estimatii pentru - coeficienti;- erorile standard;- Testul t ;- intervale de incredere

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Upper 95%

C.Estimatii pentru - coeficienti;- erorile standard;- Testul t ;- intervale de incredere