Polonia - Dinamica macroeconomica inainte si dupa criza financiara si economica

Indicatori macroeconomici:

Anunţarea ratelor dobânzilor

PIB

Indicele preturilor de consum

Indicatorii ocupării forţei de muncă

Vânzarea cu amănuntul

Balanţa de plăţi

Politica guvernamentală fiscală şi monetară

OverviewPolonia a reusit cu success sa se integreze in Uniunea Europeana de la aderarea sa in 2004, si a fost singura atara membra care in perioada crizei financiare mondiale din 2008-2009 a prezentat o crestere. Polonia este o țară cu venituri ridicate, cu o economie de piața internă mare și diversificată.

Patru moduri prin care Banca de stat a Polonia a ajuta la evitarea recesiuniiFigure 1. Schimbarea PIB-ului real a unor tari Europene, 2007-2014 (%)

Source: author’s calculations based on Eurostat. – calculatiile autorului bazate pe Eurostat

Această performanță remarcabilă rezultat dintr-o serie de factori, inclusiv stimularea fiscală și monetară în timp util, o depreciere mare a monedei și o economie internă relativ mare, ceea ce a limitat expunerea țării la influentele negative ale comerțului internațional. În plus, creșterea a fost susținută de cresterea intrărilor de fonduri de la Uniunea Europeană, o structură diversificată de export, și de încrederea sustinuta din partea consumatorilor si a antreprenorilor polonezi.

Performanta impresionanta a Poloniei a fost, de asemenea, determinată de un sector bancar sănătos. Băncile poloneze rămân profitabile, lichide, și bine capitalizate, de-a lungul crizei.Acestea nu au nevoie de sprijin public nici macar pentru un dolar. Spre deosebire de majoritatea celorlalte țări din UE, băncile din Polonia au reușit să crească creditarea sectorului privat în timpul crizei, sprijinind creșterea țării.

Un factor trecut cu vederea a fost rolul anticiclic al PKO BP - o bancă publică comerciala și cel mai mare jucator pe piata din Polonia, cu o cotă de piață de aproape 20 la sută – care a ajutat in timpul crizei.

În timp ce băncile cu capital străin, care controlau aproape 75 la sută din activele sectorului bancar, tăiau de creditare în panică, PKO BP extindea împrumuturile în același timp. Portofoliul de credite a crescut cu 1,2 la sută din PIB în 2009 și a reprezentat 40 la suta din totalul împrumuturilor bancare noi în acel an. Creditele băncii a crescut pentru toate segmentele de piață, inclusiv în sectorule esențiale a întreprinderilor mici și mijlocii.

Conclusion:

Poland has become a major actor within the European Union (EU).  With a population of about 38million, and a

Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $13,360 (2014, Atlas method), Poland has the largest economy in

Central Europe. Since joining the EU in 2004, the country’s ambitions have been marked by the desire to fully catch

up with the core of the EU in terms of economic development and living standards (Gross Domestic Product per

capita currently stands at only 67% of the EU average) and to become one of the key participants in European

debates.

Poland’s economic growth remains robust. In the first half of 2015, the economy expanded by 3.4 percent year on

year, the same rate as in 2014 and up from 1.7 percent in 2013. Domestic demand increased by 3 percent and

remained the main growth driver. Private consumption continued to benefit from higher real disposable incomes as a

result of improved labor market conditions, relatively strong credit growth to households, and a boost from

persistent consumer price declines. Investment was supported by solid corporate profits, growing confidence, record

low interest rates, and final disbursements from the European Union’s (EU) previous financial perspective (budget).

The NBP’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) maintains a relaxed monetary policy stance. The main policy

interest rate was cut in October 2014 and in March 2015 by 100 basis points altogether, and the reference rate

remains at a record low of 1.5 percent. Inflation remains well below the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) 1.5–3.5

percent target range, affected by strong declines in food and energy prices. The headline inflation rate has been

negative since July 2014, and in August 2015, consumer prices fell by 0.6 percent compared to one year earlier.

Negative inflation in Poland is driven by low imported inflation from Eurozone trading partners and declining global

food and energy prices. Poland’s real effective exchange rate appears to be broadly consistent with economic

fundamentals.

The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with stable credit growth. Capital adequacy is

strong (at 14.9 percent in March 2015, 90 percent of which is Core Tier 1 capital) and liquidity is high. In 2014, the

net profit of the banking sector exceeded PLN 16.2 billion (US$4.2 billion), a historical record. However, in the first

half of 2015, net profit declined by 8.2 percent in comparison with the first half of 2014. The deleveraging of

Eurozone banks has stabilized and the fall in foreign funding was offset by rising domestic deposits. Private sector

credit grew by 7 percent in 2014, including a welcome pickup in credit to the corporate sector. In the first half of

2015, the year-on-year growth of bank credit oscillated around 7 percent.

Despite remarkable economic performance, Poland faces a number of challenges going forward. In the

medium-term, Poland needs to improve the efficiency of public finances and do more to ensure that economic

growth includes better those at the lower end of the income distribution. The country also needs to strike a balance

between labor market flexibility and worker protection, and mitigate the existing duality of the labor market. Doing

business reforms to encourage productivity and innovation remains another important reform area, especially in light

of the changing demographics and aging society. Lastly, the country needs to manage the transition towards a low-

emissions economy as it faces some potentially costly policy actions.