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Cuprins

Transfer of technology

World BankWorld Development IndicatorsScience &

Technology

Difuzia tehnologicametode

Digital dividedefinitie, descriere, prezent, rapoarteinternationale

Atenuarea decalajului digitalCazul Romaniei

Alte decalajecompetente digitale

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Transferul de tehnologie si decalajele economice

Decalajele tehnologice ale rilor CEE pot fi diminuate prin activiti proprii de cercetare-dezvoltare i inovare (CDI) sau prin transferul de tehnologii din rile dezvoltate.

Ambele sunt la fel de importante pentru cretereaproductivitiifirmelor i,n consecin,convergenanivelurilor de dezvoltare ntre rileeuropene. n prezent, pentru statele cudezvoltare medie, majoritatea cunotinelor tehnologice (80-90%) provin din surse externe. Dinacest motiv, transferul de tehnologie este un element vital n ncercarea de reducere a decalajelor.

Dealtfel, mari organizaiieconomice precum UNCTAD iOECD au recunoscut n repetate rnduriaceastcauzalitate, n studiile lor.

Transfer tehnologic - introducerea sau achizitionarea in circuitul economic a tehnologiilor si utilajelorspecifice, echipamentelor si instalatiilor rezultate din cercetare, in vederea obtinerii unor procese,produse si servicii noi sau imbunatatite, cerute de piata sau prin care se adopta un comportamentinovativ, inclusiv activitatea de a disemina informatii, a explica, a transfera cunostinte, a acordaconsultanta si a comunica cu persoane care nu sunt experti in problema despre rezultatele

cercetarii fundamentale, aplicative si precompetitive intr-un asemenea mod incat sa creasca sansaaplicarii unor astfel de rezultate, cu conditia sa existe un proprietar al rezultatelor.

Transferul tehnologic se poate realiza pe diferite ci, principalele modaliti fiind investiiilestrine directe (ISD), importurile de componente, subansamble i bunuri de capital,contractele de liceniere,alianeleicolaborriledintre firme ialtele.

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Statelider n domeniul tehnologiilor de vrf

Clasamente - competitivitate

WEF World Competitiveness Report2014-2015: Switzerland, Singapore,United States, Finland, Germany, Japan,Hong Kong SAR, Netherlands, Sweden,United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark,Romania (59 din 144)

IMDGlobal Competitiveness yearbook2014: United States, Switzerland,Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, Sweden,Germany, Canada, UAE, Denmark,Norway,... Romania (55 din 60)

KAM Knowledge AssessmentMethodology: KEI Sweden, Finland,Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, NewZealand, Canada, Germany, Australia,Switzerland, Ireland, United States, Romania (44 din 146 in 2012)

Clasamente specializate:

Networked Readiness Index 2014: Finland, Singapore,

Sweden, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, UnitedStates, Hong Kong SAR, United Kingdom, Korea,Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark, Romania (75din 144)

Global Innovation Index 2014 : Switzerland, UnitedKingdom, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, UnitedStates, Singapore, Denmark, Luxembourg Norway,Hong Kong Romania (55 din 143)

WIR World Investment Report 2014 (INVESTING IN THESustainable Development Goals (SDGs): AN ACTIONPLAN)

Human Development Report 2014 Sustaining HumanProgress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and BuildingResilience: Norway Australia SwitzerlandNetherlands United States Germany New ZealandCanada Singapore Denmark Romania (54 din

187)

La nivel european:

The Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report:Romania in pozitia 26 sau 27

Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS) 2014: Romania

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The competitiveness divide in Europe (2012 report) Mappingthe relationship between smart, inclusive and sustainable

Europe - Complementing rather than competing forces

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Romania in the EU competitiveness report 2012Romania ranks 26thoverall, with a relatively better performance in the area of sustainablegrowth(23rd) thanks to a comparatively acceptable level of renewable energy production (9th) and CO2intensity (16th).- it attains the lowest performance in the EU in the smartcategory (27th).- Romania trails almost all EU economies in most of the pillars, with only a few relatively betterresults in the labour market and employment pillar where it ranks 20 th. Romaniaslabour market isflexible (ranking 10th in terms of hiring and firing practices), with a relatively strong relationshipbetween pay and productivity (14th) and an above average participation of women in the private

sector (12th).-In terms of smart growth, the performance of Romania shows that the country still needs toconcentrate on developing sound institutions and market structures before it will become ascompetitive as the most advanced economies.Romania ranks only 26th in the enterprise environment pillar, and 27th in the digital agenda andinnovation pillars.Despite a positive entrepreneurial attitude (6th), improvements need to be made on the competition

front (25th

), the development of clusters (27th

) and availability of finance (19th) in order to generatea more conducive business environment.Also, performance on the digital agenda and the innovative Europe pillars needs to be reinforced.Romaniasranking is 27thon both, with few specific indicators ranking above the 20thposition.

Taking a holistic approach to building up different areas of development is necessary to enableRomania to close the gap between its competitiveness and European targets.

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IUS Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014EU Member States innovation performance

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RIS Regional Innovation Scoreboard 2014

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IUS Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014

EU Member States growth performance

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Progress since the launch of the Europe 2020 strategy

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The grey coloured columns show performance in 2010 as measured using the IUS 2013 set of indicators.

The change in innovation performance between 2010 and 2012 is equal to the percentage change between the innovation indexes

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The Global Information

Technology Report 2014

The 13th edition of The Global Information Technology Report is released at atime when economies need to solidify the recovery of the past year andleave the worst financial and economic crisis of the past 80 years behind.Developed economies need to sustain their incipient economic recoveryand find new areas of growth and employment creation; emerging anddeveloping economies need to build their resilience against turbulence inthe markets and foster their innovation potential in order to sustain therapid economic growth they experienced in the past decade.

Against this backdrop, information and communication technologies (ICTs) - intheir role as key enablers of innovation and new employmentopportunitiesare drawing more attention than ever before. As thebenefits of ICTs increasingly materialize into tangible assets, building andstrengthening digital ecosystems becomes increasingly important.

The Global Information Technology Report 2014 features the latest results of theNRI, offering an overview of the current state of ICT readiness in the world.This years coverage includes a record number of 148 economies,accounting for over 98 percent of global GDP. In addition, it features anumber of essays that inquire into the rewards and risks accruing from bigdata, an unprecedented phenomenon in terms of the volume, velocity, andvariety of sources of the creation of new data. These essays also advise onthe changes that organizations, both public and private, will need to adoptin order to manage, make sense of, and obtain economic and social valuefrom this vast quantity of newly generated data.

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The Global Information Technology Report 2014

Overall, developedeconomies are striving to return to higher levels of competitiveness while fightingthe stubbornly high levels of unemployment, especially among youth; at the same time, developingand emerging economies are focusing on innovation as a prerequisite to sustain the high economicgrowth rates they have experienced in the past decade and leapfrog toward higher levels of economicand social prosperity.

The Report has accompanied and monitored ICT advances over the last decade as well as raisingawareness of the importance of ICT diffusion and usage for long-term competitiveness and societal

well-being.The role that ICT can play to support economic growth and the creation of high quality jobs has neverdrawn so much attention and research. There had been some initial concerns about the risk, in somedeveloped economies, that ICTs could accelerate the delocalization of certain economic activitiestoward developing countries. But the benefits of ICTs are now widely recognized everywhere as animportant source of efficiency gains for companies that will allow them to optimize their production

function and liberalize resources toward other productive investments. Moreover, ICTs are alsoincreasingly recognized as a key source of innovation that can generate increased economic growthand new sources of high-value-added jobs. This ability to innovate is essential in the currentinformation revolution that is transforming economic and social transactions in our societies.

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EXTRACTING VALUE FROM BIG DATA

Data have always had strategic value, but with the magnitude ofdata available today - and our capability to process them - they

have become a new form of asset class. In a very real sense, dataare now the equivalent of oil or gold. And today we are seeing adata boom rivaling the Texas oil boom of the 20th century andthe San Francisco gold rush of the 1800s. It has spawned anentire support industry and has attracted a great deal of businesspress in recent years.

This new asset class of big data is commonly described by whatwe call the threeVs.Big data is high volume, high velocity, andincludes a high variety of sources of information. Next to those

traditional three Vs we could add a fourth: value. This is whateveryone is looking for, and this is why big data today gets somuch attention. In the quest for value, the challenge facing us ishow to reduce the complexity and unwieldiness of big data sothat it becomes truly valuable.

Big data can take the form of structured data such as financialtransactions or unstructured data such as photographs or blogposts.

It can be crowd-sourced or obtained from proprietary datasources. Big data has been fueled by both technological advances(such as the spread of radio-frequency identification, or RFID,chips) and social trends (such as the widespread adoption ofsocial media).

Our collective discussions, comments, likes, dislikes, andnetworks of social connections are now all data, and their scale ismassive. What did we search for? What did we read? Where didwe go? With whom do we associate? What do we eat? What do

we purchase?

In short, almost any imaginable human interaction can be capturedand studied within the realm of big data. Big data has arrived. It is

changing our lives and changing the way we do business. Butsucceeding with big data requires more than just data. Data-basedvalue creation requires the identification of patterns from whichpredictions can be inferred and decisions made. Businesses need todecide which data to use. The data each business owns might be asdifferent as the businesses themselves; these data range from logfiles and GPS data to customer- or machine-to-machine data. Eachbusiness will need to select the data source it will use to createvalue. Moreover, creating this value will require the right way of

dissecting and then analyzing those data with the right analytics. Itwill require knowing how to separate valuable information fromhype. This world of big data has also become a source of concern.The consequences of big data for issues of privacy and other areasof society are not yet fully understood. Some prominent critics,such as Jaron Lanier call on us to be cautious about readily believingany result created by the wisdom of the crowd. Moreover,applications of big data in military intelligence have created agrowing concern for privacy around the world. Indeed, we are now

living in a world where anything and everything can be measured.Datacould become a new ideology. We are just at the beginningof a long journey where, with the proper principles and guidelines,we should be able to collect, measure, and analyze more and moreinformation about everyone and everything in order to make betterdecisions, individually and collectively.

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Managing the Risks and Rewards of Big Data

Organizations are awakening to the reality that an overwhelming amount of high-volume, wide-variety, and high-velocity data creates three key trends: Big data leverages previously untapped data sources to liberate information from

places where it was previously hidden.Big data management requires automation wherever possible, because volume and

complexity eliminate the ability of humans to intervene and reprogram processesin real time.

Big data forces us to create adaptable, less fragile data systems because the sheervariety of structured and unstructured data breaks the old computational andtransactional ways of writing logic.

These trends create two main challenges:Big data holds unseen patterns, which need to be visualized using analytics tools and

techniques. Insights gained must be used at the right time, in the right context,

and with the right approach.The challenge of systematically discovering, capturing, governing, and securing ever-larger amounts of data is much more complicated than the relatively simpleproblem of marshaling storage and computational resources.

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Networked Readiness Index (NRI)

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Sketching the new digital divide

The Networked Readiness Index (NRI) aims tomeasure the ability of countries to leverageinformation and communication technologies (ICTs)for improved competitiveness and well being. Thisability depends on multiple factors, as detailed in thischapter and reflected in the comprehensiveframework underpinning the NRI.

The NRI results confirm the presence of the digitaldivide between advanced economies on the one handand emerging and developing economies on theother.

- an intensity map of the world, with economies color-coded based on their NRI overall score measured on a1-to-7 scale, with best- and worst-performingeconomies appearing in dark green and red,respectively. The contrast between advancedeconomies and the rest of the world is stark andbetrays the inability or limited capacity of a vastmajority of countries to fully reap the benefits of ICTs.

The digital divide in the 10 pillars of the NRI. Of the

10 pillars, infrastructure and digital content andindividual usage are the two where the scoredifferentials between advanced economies and

the rest of the world are the biggest (2.7).

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Penetration of various technologies, 2011

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Environment subindex and pillars

Readiness subindex and pillars

Usage subindex and pillars

Impact subindex and pillars

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Romania

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The Technology Gap between Rich and Poor

countries

While the level of technology used in all countries hasincreased rapidly, it has done so quicker indeveloping countries and quickest in low-incomecountries. (ATTN: the initial level of technology inlower-income countries was much lower to beginwith). There is strong evidence of catch-up

between middle-income and high-incomecountries.

Despite the rapid pace of technological progress, thetechnology gap between high-income anddeveloping countries remains wide, withdeveloping countries employing only a quarter ofthe level of technology in developed countries.

Levels of technological achievement in high-income countries are more than twice those inupper-middle income countries. This group, inturn, has levels of achievement that are morethan double those in low-income countries.

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Technological achievementdigital divide- developing countries are scarcely active at the global technological frontier. This is mainly because

many developing countries lack the critical mass of technological competencies necessary to

participate at the global technology frontier. This does not mean that top-level scientists do notexist in these countries. Many people from developing countries perform cutting-edge researchin developed countries. In the United States, 2.5 of the 21.6 million working scientists andengineers were born in developing countries.

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How have various pre-existing technologies spread in

developing countries? The picture is somewhat different for oldertechnologies than it is for newer ones.

The major innovations of the past 200 years - such as steam power, electricity, and telephones -exist to some degree in virtually every country. But access to these older technologiesvarieswidely between countries, depending on both the technological absorptive capacity of thecountry and the affordability of the technology.

While countries of the former Soviet bloc enjoy near-universal access to electricity, in Sub-SaharanAfrica, only 8 percent of the rural population has access to electricity, and just over half the

urban population. Moreover, the quality and regularity of the service is low.Some newer technologies such as mobile phones and broadband Internet have penetrated

developing countries much faster than older technologies. The near-doubling of mobile phoneownership in low-income countries between 2000 and 2004 may be of great value too poorpeople in rural areas constrained by poor infrastructure. For example, Teba Bank in South Africahas developed a smart card that uses mobile phone technology to provide low-cost electronic

banking services to low-income customers.Internet bandwidth consumption and the number of broadband subscribers have more than

doubled from 1999 to 2004 in both middle- and low-income countries. But personalcomputers - more expensive than a shared Internet connection such as through an Internetcaf - have spread more slowly. Three-quarters of low-income countries have 15 or fewerpersonal computers per 1,000 people, and a quarter have fewer than five.

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Constraints on developing countries capacity to absorb

technology

Successful adoption and adaptation of foreign technologies depends on each

developing countryscapacity to absorb these technologies.

Overall, technological absorptive capacity in the developing world is still weak, and

needs to be strengthened.

According to a World Bank report, Global Economic Prospects 2008: TechnologyDiffusion in the Developing World, there has been considerable progress in themacroeconomic environment and financial structure and intermediation indeveloping countries - both critical for healthy technological absorption. But thecapacity of developing countries to absorb technologies has been largely limited by:

low technical literacy

the uneven spread of older technologiessuch as electricity and telephones low penetration of technologies in rural areas.

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The quality of education

There has been significant progress in developing countries in literacy rates over the past 15 years. But toooften, the quality of educationbeing delivered in developing countries remains low.

Large proportions of students officially classified as literate in middle-income countries fail to meet OECDliteracy standards.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, despite enrollment rates of close to 100 percent, fewer than half of grade sixstudents in some countries are deemed literate.

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Capacity to absorb technology

For example: in India, telephone penetrationrates in urban centers are 8 times those inrural regions.

Within sectors, the mostproductive firms tend to haveproductivity levels that are five

times those of the average firm.This suggests that if theirtechnologies were adopted byother firms (and their work forcehad adequate skills), GDP couldbe increased by between fourand five times.

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Capacity to absorb technology

While many countries have improvedtechnological achievement,relatively few countries have

improved their technological

absorptive capacity by more than 10percent between 1990 and 2000.

The most negative score was by Zimbabwe, mainlyreflecting the recent deterioration in

macroeconomic and governance conditions.

Weak domestic absorptive capacity willprobably hinder future technologicalprogress in developing countries.

Unless steps are taken to raise basic

competencies and invest in localtechnology dissemination networks,many developing countries may notbe able to master anything but thesimplest of future technologies.

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Total factor productivity (TFP)TFP was derived as the residual after accounting for the contribution of labor

and capital to aggregate output.It is well accepted in the economics literature that total factor productivity

depends on the availability of knowledge.

Romer (1986, 1990) and Lucas (1988) argued that TFP levels depend on thestock of knowledge or human capital.

Grossman and Helpman (1991) postulated that imported goods embodiedforeign technology and hence imports would lead to increases in TFP

Coe and Helpman (1995) found that for a sample of developed countries bothdomestic and foreign R&D had significant impact on TFP.

TFP is the main driver of long run productivity growth

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In advanced economies especially, productivity growth will

moderate in 2011http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

The world economy returned to solid productivity growth in 2010 as GDP in mostcountries recovered strongly from the 2008/09 financial and economic crisis, whileemployment lagged behind. Advanced regions left recession firmly in the rearviewmirror. Emerging economies continue to drive both global growth and globalproductivity growth.

The U.S. economy remained on a higher productivity growth path than Europe in 2010, but theirproductivity growth rates may converge, at least temporarily, in 2011 as U.S. employment picksup momentum. Global productivity growth will moderate slightly in 2011 as cyclical effectsabate.

Advanced economies saw solid labor-productivity growth in 2010 as they left recession firmlybehind. GDP bounced back strongly (from -3.3 percent in 2009 to 2.9 percent in 2010). The labormarket also recovered (employment growth was -2.2 percent in 2009, -0.1 percent in 2010) but

lagged behind GDP growth. The combination of these two factors produced an above trendrecovery in labor productivity growth, which reached 3.0 percent in 2010.

In 2011, labor productivity growth in advanced countries is projected to decelerate to 1.6 percent, asthe result of a slowdown in output growth to 2.3 percent while employment growth begins to

build momentum, growing at 0.7 percent.

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Emerging economies continue to drive global

productivity growth

Productivity growth also recovered significantly in emerging economies in 2010,especially in those regions that suffered most from the global crisis such asdeveloping Asia (excluding China and India), Latin America, Central and EasternEurope, and Russia and other countries of the Commonwealth of IndependentStates.

o China and India are the largest and most dynamic economies in productivity terms, at 8.7 % and5.4 % in 2010, respectively.

o Turkeysproductivity growth jumped to 2.2% in 2010 from -5.2 % in 2009, mostly due to a strongGDP bounce-back; employment also kept growing.

o Brazil continued to strengthen its productivity performance at 4% growth in 2010, outperforming

the Latin American region as a whole, which saw an increase of 3.2% in 2010.o Russiasproductivity growth has recovered remarkably from a low of -6% in 2009 to 3.1 % in 2010.But its underlying output and employment performance remains below the average of otherlarge emerging economies.

In 2011, growth in labor productivity in emerging economies is likely to remain just below 5.0%,similar to 2010.

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Productivitys Contribution to Global Growthhttp://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe

and the Former Soviet Union (Declansarea/startul prosperitii- cretereaproductivitiin Europade Est ifosta Uniune Sovietic) 2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development - The World Bank( 2008Banca Internaionalpentru ReconstrucieiDezvoltare / Banca Mondial); autori: Asad Alam, Paloma Ans Casero, Faruk Khan,

Charles Udomsaph

Creterea productivitii este cel mai important

indicator unic al economiei sustenabile pe

termen lung.

Creterilede productivitate au sporit profitabilitateacompaniei. Cu profituri mai mari, ntreprinderile

sunt n msursinvesteascn noile tehnologii,dezvoltarea de noi produse, extinderea pieelor,angajand mai muli lucrtori, salarii mai mari,simbunatatirea condiiilor de munc, precum icreterea nivelului de trai. n acelai timp,profituri mai mari, atunci cnd apar ntr-o piacompetitiv, ajuta la atragerea de noi

ntreprinderi i s impulsioneze inovaii

tehnologice, care puse in vigoare, ajutantreprinderile existente sdevinmai eficiente.

Acest ciclu virtuos ridic eficiena economic

global i sporete creterea economic i

nivelul de trai.

Msurarea creterii productivitii. Msura cea maifrecvent utilizata este productivitatea muncii, pentruceste uors calculeze is interpreteze. Surprindect de multe ieirisunt produse, n medie, de ctre

fiecare unitate de fora de munc angajat n

produciade creterea productivitiimuncii.

O altmsureste productivitatea totala factorilor (PTF)de cretere,care se referla o creterea producieicenu poate fi atribuita la o creterea foreide munc

sau intrri de capital. Creterea PTF releva crestereaeficieneigenerate de progresul tehnologic ncorporat

n mbuntiri la nivel de firm, cum ar fi metodelede producie, o mai bun gestionare, o mai bun

asisten pentru clieni, i canale de distribuie maibune pentru livrarea de bunuri iservicii. Att forta demunc i PTF pot fi estimate pentru economie nansamblul su, pentru un sector al economiei, saupentru o firmindividual.

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in EasternEurope and the Former Soviet Union

The Region shows great diversity inproductivity performance andprogress in reform. Two broadgroups of countries emerge fromthe analysis: the more productive,

early reformers (the EU10 andTurkey) and the less productive, latereformers (most of the CIS and theSEE).

The main challenge in the EU10 andTurkey is to boost innovation to

compete successfully in globalmarkets, while the primarychallenge in the CIS and SEE is toaccelerate reallocation to addressthe legacy of the transition.

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in EasternEurope and the Former Soviet Union

The countries of Eastern Europe and the Former SovietUnion (the Region, hereafter) experienced aproductivity surge over 19992005 that drove upliving standards and reduced poverty.Part of the productivity gains also derived frommajorstructural changes in the economies of the Region, as

resources were progressively shifted to higher-

productivity uses in response to changed economic

and institutional incentives. The transition to a

market economy involved a substantial reallocation offactors (labor and capital) across sectors. Manyworkers moved out of manufacturing and into services,a sector that had been underdeveloped under centralplanning.But most of the productivity surge was driven by firmdynamics. From a microeconomic perspective,productivity growth may be decomposed into threemain sources: productivity gains within existing firms,the reallocation of resources across existing firms, andfirm turnover (the entry of new, more-productive firmsand the exit of obsolete firms).

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe

and the Former Soviet Union

Labor supply and demand factors explain the small contribution of labor input to totaloutput growth. A shrinking working-age population, out-migration, declines in laborparticipation, and high unemployment rates stifled labor supply, thereby contributingto disappointing labor outcomes. Indeed, the employment rate has continued to fall inmany countries since 1998. While the employment rate is generally higher in the CIS(relative to the EU10, where the rate is short of the Lisbon target of 70%), many jobs inthe CIS are in low-productivity occupations. These constraints are compounded bydeficiencies in the higher education system, which worsen skill mismatches, andrigidities in labor market regulations, which make it difficult for firms to hire workersand slow the pace of the reallocation of workers.

The small role of capital accumulation in the Regionsgrowth partly reflects inefficienciesand low investments in new vintages of capital. In the context of a declining laborforce, sustaining per capita income growth will depend on capital deepening(increasing the physical capital per worker) and on additional productivity gains. Thesmall impact of capital accumulation on output growth, particularly in the CIS, alsoreflects adjustments in the corporate sector that have delayed new investments andled to the disposal of old capital stock.

In the EU10, investment rates have not been low, but depreciation rates are high, andinfrastructure provision still lags considerably relative to the EU15. Even more criticalthan the quantity of capital investments is the quality of the investments. The EU10countries have invested the most in ICT. The use and production of ICT have propelledlabor productivity growth.

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Unleashing Prosperity - Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe andthe Former Soviet Union

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Rapid integration brought many benefits for growth but also

created vulnerabilities for some of the EU10. The catching-up

process has relied on significant capital deepening, productivity

gains, and better education of the labor forceWorld Bank. 2014. Strengthening recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 regular economic report. EU11 regular economic

report. Washington, DC : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europe

Rapid integration brought many benefits for growth but also created vulnerabilities for some of the EU10. Thecatching-up process has relied on significant capital deepening, productivity gains, and better education ofthe labor force

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11 European Union (EU) member states that joined after 2004 (excluding Cyprus and Malta)Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (North); the Czech Republic,

Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic, (Continental); and Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia (South). The term New Member States (NMS) or

alternatively the EU10 refers to the eight countries that joined the European in 2004 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia,

Slovenia) and the two that joined in 2006 (Bulgaria and Romania).
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europe


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Tema de discutie - The HDI 2001 Report Making New

Technologies Work for Human Development

It is about how people can create and use technology to improve their lives. It is also

about forging new public policies to lead the revolutions in information andcommunications technology and biotechnology in the direction of human development.-it looks specifically at how new technologies will affect developing countries and poor people. Manypeople fear that these technologies may be of little use to the developing world - or that they mightactually widen the already savage inequalities between North and South, rich and poor. Withoutinnovative public policy, these technologies could become a source of exclusion, not a tool of

progress. The needs of poor people could remain neglected, new global risks left unmanaged. Butmanaged well, the rewards could be greater than the risks.

The technology divide does not have to follow the income divide. Throughout history,technology has been a powerful tool for human development and poverty reduction. The2001 Report demonstrates that:People all over the world have high hopes that new technologies will lead to healthier lives, greater

social freedoms, increased knowledge and more productive livelihoods;The 20th centurysunprecedented gains in advancing human development and eradicating povertycame largely from technological breakthroughs;In the network age, every country needs the capacity to understand and adapt global technologies forlocal needs; andPolicy, not charity, will determine whether new technologies become a tool for human developmenteverywhere.29/10/2014 MAPP MTT 2014-2015 48


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Todays Technological Transformations Combine With Globalization

to Create the Network Age

29/10/2014 MAPP MTT 2014-2015 49

Todays technological advances are faster (Moores law) and more fundamental (breakthroughs in

genetics). They are driving down costs (computing and communications) at a pace never before seen.Leading these transformations are the accelerated developments in information and communicationstechnology, biotechnology and just-emerging nanotechnology.


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The uneven diffusion of technology is nothing newthere have long

been huge differences among countries

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The uneven diffusion of information and communications technologythe digital dividehas caught the attention of world

leaders. Bridging this divide is now a global objective. But the uneven diffusion of technology is nothing new. There have long been

huge differences among countries.

As a result the worlds 200 or so countries face the challenges of human development in the network age starting from very di fferent

points. The technology achievement index introduced in this Report presents a snapshot of each countrys average achievements in

creating and diffusing technology and in building human skills to master new innovations.
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http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161
http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/401/341/5531/7908584/184/internetpopulation2011-hexcartogram-v6-2-ld.pnghttp://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/business-magazin-va-prezinta-infograficul-saptamanii-slideshow7908584/slide-161


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Internet users (per 100 people)

8,9

15

21,524,66

28,3

32,42

36,639,93

44,02

50

75,28

35,57

96

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Internet users (per 100 people)

ROU EUU WLD Iceland

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Date statistice - EUROSTAT

22

48

42 42

37 36 35 3432

30 29 28 27 2624

19 19 18 18 1715 15 15

107 6 6 6 5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Internet use: Never in 2012 - Percentage of individuals from All Individuals

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Date statistice - Internet use Individuals NEVER

39,66 41,4842,18

46,66 47,6351,57 53,17

53,54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Individuals - Internet use NEVER

Percentage of individuals from all

individuals - Coefficient of variation (2005-2012)

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GEO/TIME 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012EU28 37 33 30 27 24 22

EU27 43 42 37 33 30 27 24 22Euro area 44 42 36 32 30 26 24 22

Belgium 39 34 29 26 20 18 14 15

Bulgaria 71 65 57 53 51 46 42

Czech Republic 63 49 46 33 33 28 24 19

Denmark 14 10 12 12 11 9 7 6

Germany 29 26 23 20 19 17 16 15

Estonia 36 34 32 26 26 22 20 19

Ireland 55 42 35 32 30 27 21 18

Greece 73 65 62 56 53 52 45 42

Spain 50 47 43 38 36 32 29 27France 46 34 26 25 20 18 15

Croatia 56 54 47 42 39 35

Italy 62 59 54 50 45 41 39 37

Cyprus 64 62 56 54 48 45 41 36

Latvia 51 45 39 34 31 29 27 24

Lithuania 61 54 49 43 38 35 33 30

Luxembourg 29 27 20 16 11 8 8 6

Hungary 60 52 46 37 36 32 28 26

Malta 57 58 51 49 40 36 30 29

Netherlands 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 6Austria 40 34 28 25 25 23 18 17

Poland 58 52 48 44 39 35 33 32

Portugal 63 60 56 54 50 46 41 34

Romania 74 69 64 62 57 54 48

Slovenia 48 43 39 40 33 28 29 28

Slovakia 42 41 35 25 22 17 20 18

Finland 23 18 17 13 15 11 9 7

Sweden 12 10 15 9 7 7 5 5

UK 28 29 22 19 15 13 11 10


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Romania in 2007-2012 and projections Internet use

once a week

69

64 62

5754

48

EU28: y = 40,919e-0,105x

R = 0,9988

RO: y = 74,544e-0,069x

R = 0,9759

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Frequency of Internet access: "never" in RO

EU28 Romania

Expon. (EU28) Expon. (Romania)

74

69

6462

5754

48

47,12

40,57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%o

findividuals

Romania projections

actual logistic

constant growth rate exponential

29/10/2014 MAPP MTT 2014-2015 57


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50

78

94

21

49

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Individuals with no orlow formal education

Individuals withmedium formal

education

Individuals with highformal education

Last Internet use: in last 3 months - Percentage of

individuals 2012

European Union (28 countries) Romania

50

61

75

85

17

32

49

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Individual livingin a householdwith income in

first quartile

Individual livingin a householdwith income insecond quartile

Individual livingin a householdwith income inthird quartile

Individual livingin a householdwith income infourth quartile


individuals 2012


29/10/2014 MAPP MTT 2014-2015 58


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74

83

43

85

98

6846 53

15

54

95

49

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Individuals - Internet use in 2012 - Last Internet

use: in last 3 months - % of individuals


9590

84

74

56

34

77

63

51

39

20

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16 to 24years old

25 to 34years old

35 to 44years old

45 to 54years old

55 to 64years old

65 to 74years old


individuals 2012


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Defining a 21stcentury educationBy Craig D. Jerald for the Center for Public Education, 2009

schools must provide studentswith a broader set of 21stcentury skills to thrive in arapidly evolving, technology-saturated world

21st century skills movement:

soft skills, life skills, key skills,inter-personal skills, workforceskills, non-cognitive skills

it is possible to examine trendsthat have change the demands ofwork and life in the recent pastand continue to do so today. Themost important are automation,globalization, workplace change,and policies increasing personalresponsibility, demography

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Between 1969 and 1999, the mix of jobs in the economy changed

dramatically, with large increases in jobs that require better skills

and more education.

The economists Frank Levy and Richard Murnane examined tasks performed on the job


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The economists Frank Levy and Richard Murnane examined tasks performed on the job

by all workers over several decades. Over time, workers are performing fewer routine

tasks that can be better performed by computers while being called on to do more

complex thinking tasks like solving unfamiliar problems and interacting with others.

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Far more Americans say their jobs are intellectually challenging and meaningful than

they did several decades ago.

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Changes in the workplace, the larger economy, and society as a whole are

increasing the complexity of the environment people live in and demanding

greater skills of them. At the same time, people are being asked to shoulder a

greater burden of personal risk and responsibility for navigating thatenvironment, both on the job and in personal spheres like health care and

financial planning.

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Three out of four employers predict that broad competencies like critical thinking,


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f f p y p p g

collaboration, and creativity will become even more important for job success in the

near future.

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Communication skills -Speak so others can

understand, listen actively,

read with understanding,

observe critically;

Interpersonal skills -

Cooperate with others,

resolve conflict and

negotiate;

Decision making skills -

Solve problems and make

decisions, use math to solve

problems and

communicate;

Lifelong learning skills:

Take responsibility for

learning, use information

and communications

technology.

The Revised Blooms Taxonomy Some argue that 21st century skills are closely


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The Revised Blooms Taxonomy. Some argue that 21st century skills are closely

related to the Blooms Taxonomy often used by teachers to plan lessons. The

figure below summarizes the 2001 revised version.

29/10/2014 MAPP MTT 2014-2015 65

Thi h i l kill di i h f


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This chart compares interpersonal skills on two dimensions, the percentage of

employers who say the skill is very important and the percentage who say that

recent high school graduates are deficient in it. Written and oral

communications are the only two skills to score over 50 percent on both

dimensions.

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Romania, restul Europei si calculatorul(http://storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro/media/401/341/5531/7908584/80/34-35-poster.jpg)

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Enterprise use of information technology, January 2011 (% of enterprises)

Computer skills of individuals, 2011 (% of individuals)

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Tema de discutie - Teoria controlului total, al lucrurilor i oamenilor- Dac aiposibilitatea de a prezice, este aproape evident c i seofer n acelai timp i posibilitatea de a

cotrola.

Experimentele lui Albert-Lszl Barabsiaratcorice reea, de la cele de socializare, cele 5 bilioane de websiteuri, lanultrofic, afacerile icomerul,evoluiaaezrilorurbane, comportamentul uman, metabolismul proteinelor intracelulare, toate pot fi descrise prin aceleailegi matematice. Oricereeaeste organizatn noduri-elementele sistemului imuchii sau linii- care reprezintinteraciiledintre aceste elemente.

Totul a nceput n 1998, cnd Barabsi a avut ideea de a apela la site-ul Web al UniversitiiNotre Dame, unde era profesor ia putut experimenta peun numr de peste 300 000 de pagini web. Rezultatul sua fost surprinztor. Existapnatunci o imagine democratica reelelor,adicdeidistribuia link-urilor era aleatorie, majoritatea nodurilor aveau aproximativ acelai numr de link-uri. Aa cum n societatea uman indivizii sauorganizaiile reprezenta nodurile reelei, iar interaciunile sociale reprezenta muchiile sistemului, tot aa n WWW, nodurile ar fi reprezentate dedocumentele HTML, iar muchiile ar fi reprezentate de link-uri. Fizicianul i colegii siau descoperit c erau sisteme n care doar cteva noduridominau. Site-uri ca Yahoo sau Google confiscaumajoritatea link-urilor. Descoperiserexistenaa ceea ce au numit sistemeindependente descal. Nu conta natura sistemului: celulele vii, Internetul, relaiilesexuale n Suedia, legturileactorilor de la Hollywood, toate se supununei legi-putere. Un numr mic de noduri hotrte totul: hub-urile. Teoria huburilor a lui Barabsi a fost folosit apoi de oncologi n

cercetrilepentru tratarea cancerului -pentru a nelegemodul n care proteinele ajung ssuprime o tumor,biologii au folosit-o pentru a determinainteleantibioticelor n reelelemetabolice ale unor bacterii reszistente la medicamente, iar serviciile secrete pentru a identifica reeleleteoriste.Ce era imai interesant nsavea surmeze. n 2006 lui Barabsi i se oferposibilitatea de a-itesta teoria pe asemilioane de abonai telefonici.Echipa lui reuetesconstruiascun algoritm prin care sidentifice cu precizie utilizatorii care urmau s-ischimbe operatorul i,maimult, au obinutilocalizarea apelantului!Deci, pe lngdesc rierea sistemulu i , avem n plus predicie. Mai rmneceva? Controlu l . Pentru c,dacai po sibi l i tatea de a prezice, esteaproape evident cise ofern acelait imp ipos ibi l i tatea de a con trola. Oprere general este c primele aplicaii vor fi n medicin.Barabsi, de altfel, spune cunele boli sunt determinate exclusiv de lipsa controlului Daceti capabil sexercii control la livel celular sauneuronal, atunci ar fi posibil svindeci boala,ne explicfizicianul Andrei Dorobanu.Ideea c cineva ar putea controla i monitoriza n permanenmicrile umane ar putea fi nsnfricotoare.Din aceast perspectiv,fizicianul Barabsi spune: Controluleste un p rogres natural al procesului de nelegere. Dar con trolul este o problemde voin,iar voinapoate f i controlatprin legi . Trebuie sne strngem la un loc ca o s ocietate isdec idem ct de dep arte l pu tem mp ing e.

Albert-Lszl Barabsi: Fiecareavans tiinificare aplicaiibenefice importante, dar poate fi, de asemenea, utilizat n mod abuziv. Acest lucru nueste nou ne-am confruntat cu asta de la descoperirea energiei nucleare, la ingineria genetic. Aaeste i aici: responsabilitatea omului detiin este de a comunica n mod clar impactul descoperirii sale societatea este cea care trebuie siexercite controlul. De aceea amscris o carte exact despre acest subiect, Bursts, dedicnd un capitol ntreg problemei vieiiprivate imodului de aplicare a acestor descoperiri.

http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/

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Prognoz tehnologic (Technological
http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/http://www.razbointrucuvant.ro/recomandari/2011/12/04/teoria-controlului-total-al-lucrurilor-si-oamenilor-creata-de-un-%E2%80%9Droman%E2%80%9D/


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Prognoztehnologic(Technological

Forecasting - TF)

toatencercrileintenionateisistematice pentru a anticipa ianelegedireciapotenial, rata, caracteristicile iefectele schimbrilor tehnologice, n special deinvenie, inovare, adoptare iutilizare

companiile mici depind de inovaiitehnologice pentru existenalor

marile companii au nevoie de TF, n mai multe forme pentru a:Prioritiza C&D,

Planifica de dezvoltare de noi produse,

Asigura elaborarea deciziilor strategice privind acordarea de licene tehnologice,societimixte, etc.

guvernele folosesc studii prospective naionale pentru a evalua cursul i impactulschimbrii tehnologice cu scopul efecturii de politici publice. Aceasta includeceea ce este cunoscut sub numele de evaluare tehnologic (AT) sau analiz deimpact social, care examineaz efectele probabile pe termen lung ale dezvoltriitehnologice pe masurce impactul acesteia se extinde n ntreaga societate.

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The envelope S-curve

Curbele infasuratoare

"One adaptation of the S-curve is known as the envelope S-curve,which takes into consideration successive generations oftechnologies that provide the same benefits. The term"envelope" refers to the curve that connects the tangents ofthe successive individual S-shaped curves.

A combination of successive S-curves can produce linearly orexponentially growing graph. For example, many successiveparadigms in computing, taken together produce exponentialgrowth in computational capacity over 100 years (Kurzweil,2001, 2003).

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Forbesmagazine - technology diffusion rates for various media and

communications technologies since their year of inception

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/adam_thierer/3574787140/


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How long it took before various technologies reached 50% household penetration?

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The extent of household diffusion over time


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The extent of household diffusion over time

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Modelling diffusion

S-Curve Example- shows the time of adoption of buyers for the

product. If the buyer is to the left of thevertical line in their time of adoption they areinnovators, early adopters or part of the earlymajority, if to the right they are the late

majority or the laggards.

Time of Adoption ofInnovation displays differenttypes of S curves developed fromalternative types of product salesforecasting models. They will bediscussed in detail in a latter section of

this investigation.

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S-Curves for the Diffusion of Innovations

The "S-curve" model is what is known as a"single purchase" model in that it forecastssales of products that are typically bought

just once, or infrequently, such as consumerdurables or industrial products such asmainframe computers.

In addition, the model can be used to forecast

trial or first time purchases for repeatpurchase goods such as snack foods anddetergents, but it does not provide aforecast of repeat purchase levels.

In order to estimate repeat purchase sales anddifferentiate them from trial sales,businesses would typically need to carry outtest markets or simulated test markets andapply different forecasting methods thatwould provide a steady-state market shareestimate rather than a time-based

Adoption curve as is provided by diffusionmodels. However, all products, regardless ofhow often they are purchased, have a firstpurchase sales volume curve.

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Internet Adaptation Curve


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Internet Adaptation Curve

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Rogers, EM, 2003. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th edition, Free Press, New York


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The diffusion of an innovation is a complex process involving large

numbers of individual decisions

Van den Bulte and Stremersch (2004) performed a meta-analysis on the use of the Bass modelapplied to new product diffusion. The study involved 746 different Bass estimations spreadover 75 consumer durables and 77 countries. The international comparison enabled them totest several sets of hypotheses, relating the diffusion to both the national culture and thenature of the product. The contagion-based hypotheses for which they found support are that(q/p) ratios are:

negatively associated with individualism (individualism means more immunity to socialcontagion) or positively associated with collectivism;

positively associated with power-distance (a measure of the hierarchical nature of the culture).The assumption here is that classestend to adopt a new product at a similar time;

positively associated with masculinity (cultures where there is a clear distinction betweengender roles).

Contrary to their expectations, they found a negative association with uncertainty avoidance (ameasure of how threatened people feel when faced with a novel opportunity). A positiveassociation is found between q/pand the Gini coefficient of income inequality, supporting the

income heterogeneity hypothesis.In cases where the products concerned had competing standards e.g. VCRs (Betamax versus VHS),

PCs (DOS/Windows versus Apple), they found that this technological issue dominated the socialor income effects.

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Cum dispare un mit: Sony renunta la casetofoanele Walkman


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2010 Sony a anuntat ca opreste productia de Walkman, motivul principal fiind scaderile dramatice ale vanzarilordispozitivului. Potrivit companiei, ultimele Walkman-uri au fost produse in Japonia in luna aprilie 2010, iar inmomentul in care stocul de dispozitive se va epuiza, Walkman-ul va deveni "istorie.

Sony a inceput sa produca Walkman-ul in anul 1979. Cu toate ca nu a avut succes la inceput, in anii 1980 acesta areprezentat cel mai important instrument portabil pentru a asculta muzica. Numele Walkman, Pressman,Watchman, Scoopman, Discman si Talkman sunt denumiri date de catre Sony pentru o plaja mai larga de produseportabile create de catre companie. Denumirea Walkman provine de la cea a predecesorului sau, Pressman, careeste casetofonul. Prima reclama pentru Walkman a aparut in anul 1979, avea ca motto " Sa vedem diferenta!" siintroducea pe piata ideea de miniatura si tehnologie avansata. Initial lansat in Japonia, Walkman-ul a fostintrodus ulterior si in Asia, Orientul Mijlociu si America Latina. De asemenea, Walkman-ul a fost unul din primele

trei dispozitive portabile pentru a asculta muzica, iar in cei 30 de ani in care a fost prezent pe piata, la nivelmondial s-au vandut peste 220 de milioane de dispozitive. In prezent, MP3 playerele sunt dispozitivele standardpentru a asculta muzica. Walkman-ul a fost inlocuit de catre CD-playere, care, la randul lor, au fost inlocuite decatre MP3 playere. Cu toate ca in 2010 a renuntat la productia de Walkman-uri, Sony pastreaza in continuaredenumirea pentru alte produse ale sale. Spre exemplu, in august a lansat seria de MP3 playere, numita WalkmanNWZ- E350. Sony a anuntat ca va continua sa produca CD-playere in ciuda scaderii popularitatii acestora.

Sursa: http://www.businessmagazin.ro/actualitate/cum-dispare-un-mit-sony-renunta-la-casetofoanele-walkman-7555596

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Valorile si comportamentul romanesc
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n anii '60-70, profesorulGeert Hofstedede la Universitatea din Maastricht a realizat o cercetare asupra diferentelorde valori ntre angajatii firmei IBM din peste 40 de tari si a ajuns la concluzia ca fiecare natiune poate fi descrisadin perspectiva locului pe care l ocupa pe o scala de la 0 la 100 fata de:

Indexul distantei fata de putere - PDI- (Modul de perceptie al inegalitatii sociale, al puterii si al autoritatii simodul de relationare cu autoritatea);

Individualism - IDV- (Modul de relationare ntre indivizi si grupuri); Masculinitate - MAS- (Implicatiile sociale si emotionale ale faptului de a fi nascut de sex masculin sau feminin); Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii - UAI - (Modalitati de a face fata incertitudinilor si situatiilor ambigue,

controlul agresiunii si exprimarea emotiilor); Orientare pe termen lung - LTO- (Orientarea catre viitor, spre deosebire de orientarea catre trecut si prezent).

Intentia initiala a lui Hofstede a fost de a ntelege de ce unele organizatii IBM din tari diferite erau mai productivedecat altele, desi aveau o cultura organizationala similara si foloseau aceleasi tehnici de recrutare, care ar fiputut induce comportamente similare. Concluzia lui Hofstede a fost ca angajatii din organizatii si vor nsusipracticilelocale sau straine pe care le indica organizatia, dar si vor pastra valorileculturii din care provin sicare i caracterizeaza.

- implicatiile acestor dimensiuni asupra comportamentului de la locul de munca si, n consecinta, cele mai aplicabile teorii de management simanagement al resurselor umane n diferite culturi.

PDI poate functiona ca un barometru al nivelului de coruptie pe care l favorizeaza o anumita cultura.IDV este direct proportional cu PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor: cu cat PIB-ul creste, cu atat creste nivelul de individualism.UAI semnalizeaza gradul de toleranta fata de minoritati, deschiderea spre noile tehnologii si cantitatea de timp petrecuta pentru planificare

strategica n organizatii.LTO pot indica nivelul de economii al oamenilor din cultura respectiva si nivelul de investitii n valori imobiliare.

Sursa: Autor Adina LUCA, revista Cariere: 19 mai 2005; Studiul a fost realizat de organizatia Gallup Romania, cu sprijinul lui Geert Jan Hofstede; proiect ce reprezinta o noua etapa n ncercarea de antelege diferentele si similitudinile dintre valorile si comportamentul romanesc si cel al altor natiuni si o modalitate de a oferi explicatii pentru comportamentul si preferintele romanilor.

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Dimesiuni culturale - modelul G. Hosftede (2012)

90

30

42

90

40

85

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

PD

IND

MAS

UA

Romania Bulgaria

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Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt

Implicatii ale dimensiunilor culturale - Pozitia relativa a unei tari pe scala de la 0 (scazut) la 100 (nalt)din cele cinci puncte de vedere este un bun predictor al comportamentului si normelor sociale, defamilie si educatie, comportamentului la locul de munca, organizarea statala, culoarea politica siideile. Datele unei astfel de cercetari sunt interpretabile astfel, din punctul de vedere al scalei dela 0 la 100: ntre 0 si 40 - nivel scazut, ntre 40 si 60 - nivel mediu, peste 60 - nivel ridicat.

Cercetarea a demonstrat ca Romania are valori similare cu alte tari balcanice, si anume: distanta marefata de autoritate, colectivism ridicat, feminitate, grad ridicat de evitare a incertitudinilor siorientare pe termen scurt. Putem concluziona ca Romania, asemenea celorlalte tari din Balcani

(Bulgaria, Grecia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania), se afla la polul opus tarilor anglo-saxone, din caremprumuta toate practicile manageriale si de management al resurselor umane.Geert Hofstede a estimat pentru Romania niveluri foarte ridicate pentru indicii reprezentand

distanta fata de putere (90) si evitare a incertitudinii (61), nivel scazut pentru indicelereprezentand individualismul, adica un grad ridicat de colectivism (30) si un grad moderat demasculinitate (42). Desi nu a oferit o estimare pentru orientarea pe termen lung, putem prespuneca si Romania are, ca si toate tarile din Europa, o orientare pe termen scurt.

Complexul puterii - Indexul distantei fata de putere a rezultat surprinzator de scazut. Specialistii de la

Interact considera ca nivelul PDI este n realitate foarte nalt, cel putin 70. Romanii, n general,prefera sa nu intervina n exercitiul autoritatii si sa se supuna ordinelor date de sus. Prin acestcomportament, romanii semnalizeaza nevoia de centralizare n luarea deciziilor, nevoia de a avealideri autoritari si dorinta de a urma regulile stabilite de astfel de lideri.

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Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt

O alta interpretare a unui index ridicat indica preferinta angajatilor pentru o relatie apropiata cu un

singur sef, pentru a obtine protectia acestuia si pentru a evita asumarea responsabilitatii unorpareri contrare.Personalul din organizatii cu astfel de culturi nu exprima pareri contrare fata de superior si primeste ordine pe care le

executa fara sa discute. n concluzie,n timp ce comportamentul populatiei demonstreaza o distanta mare fatade autoritate, preferinta se ndreapta spre un stil de conducere participativ si cooperant. Diferenta observabiladintre nivelul dorit si nivelul demonstrat prin comportament ne-a dus la concluzia existentei unui complex deautoritate, care poate explica refuzul cu obstinatie si nedeclarat al majoritatii romanilor de a respecta legile siautoritatea si, n acelasi timp, cererea expresa de legi si reguli. Aceasta diferenta poate explica si alte paradoxuri,cum ar fi preferinta pentru a lucra ntr-un mediu anglo-american, cu stil de conducere participativ, prin distanta

mica fata de autoritate, precum si comportamentul pro-american al generatiilor trecute.Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii n Romania - Romania a nregistrat un nivel ridicat de evitare a

incertitudinii - 61 - care demonstreaza ca populatia are un grad ridicat de anxietate n privintaviitorului si prefera siguranta zilei de astazi incertitudinii zilei de maine: Nuda vrabia din mana pecioara de pe gard. O astfel de societate nu poate planifica strategic pe termen mai lung, pentru caprivirea n viitor i declanseaza mecanisme defensive.

Unii romani au dificultati n a face fata unor situatii ambigue si opiniilor contrare ale altora. Daca luam nconsideratie si gradul scazut de individualism, membrii societatii nu pot tolera opinii minoritare. n

general, oamenii din astfel de culturi se simt mai confortabil n situatii de consens general. n timpuricare genereaza anxietate, cum sunt alegerile, amenintari contra securitatii si sigurantei, sau n fatanecesitatii de a accepta ceva nou, strain,cum este tehnologia avansata sau existenta unui partidminoritar, populatia reactioneaza negativ si emotional si se opune acceptarii. Nivelul ridicat deanxietate are impact si asupra structurii organizationale. Actiunile preferate sunt cele care rezolvasituatia ambigua de astazi, quickfixes, fara a avea n vedere impactul lor asupra zilei de maine.Nivelul de anxietate favorizeaza impulsul de moment, graba si exprimarea emotiei negative faracontrol.

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S i l t h l i l i


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Social, technological, economic,

environmental, political analysis (STEEP)

The method uses the social, technological, economic, environmental, political framework, whichprovides a convenient way of orienting attention across the range of possible factors.

Social:Trends concerning people and their everyday social relationships:

demographics, lifestyles, families, health, crime, and education.

Technological: Trends concerning the development and application of new knowledge about theworld: scientific and technological developments.

Economic: Trends concerning market relations: conditions in international, national, regional, andlocal economies, including developments in the labour force, income, and the infrastructure.

Environmental: Trends concerning natural and physical environments and human impacts on:energy, resources, pollution, reuse and recycling, biodiversity, protecting ecological bases,food protection, and air and water quality.

Political: Trends concerning political relations between social groups, states and governments atall levels: political conflict and modes of governance, political participation, governmentpolicies, regulation, and court decisions.

Sursa: Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT,FORECASTING & ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004

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Prioritisationis a method that involves: (1) the construction of a list of issues to be

i iti d (2) tti th it i (i i t t i t d i bilit t ) d


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prioritised; (2) setting the criteria (i.e. importance, uncertainty, desirability, etc.) and

weighting scale with clear meanings for each value (i.e. using Likert scale); (3)

setting up a group to make assessments and score issues based on data or judgments;

(4) processing scores and presenting ranked results; and (5) identifying top issues (i.e.

drivers, trends, strategies, policies, etc.). The prioritisation methods is generally

carried out by experts in a given area, however it is also common to see cross-panel

prioritisation processes with the intention of better understanding cross-cutting issues.

Analiza SWOT


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Trend-impact analysis (TIA)

Trend-impact analysis is a technique developed by the Futures Group, Inc., a consulting firm, for projectingfuture trends from information gathered on past behavior. The uniqueness of this method lies in itscombination of statistical methods and human judgment. If the future is predicted on quantitative data alone,it fails to take into account the impact of unprecedented future events. On the other hand, human judgmentprovides only subjective insights into the future. Therefore, since both human judgment and statisticalextrapolation have their shortcomings, they should both be taken into consideration when predicting futuretrends.

In trend-impact analysis (TIA), past history is first extrapolated with the help of a computer. Then the judgment ofexperts is used (usually by means of the Delphi technique) to specify a set of unique future events which mayhave a bearing on the phenomenon under study and to indicate how the trend extrapolation would be affectedby the occurrence of each of these events. The computer then uses these judgments to modify the trendextrapolation. Finally, the experts review the adjusted extrapolation and modify the inputs in those cases inwhich the input appears unreasonable.

TIA can be used not only to improve forecasts of time series variables, but also to study the sensitivity of theseforecasts to policy. Of course, any policy considered should attempt to influence as many events as possible,rather than one as in this example. Realistically, corporate actions often have both beneficial and detrimentalpossibilities since they may increase both desirable and undesirable possibilities. The use of TIA can make suchuncertainties more clearly visible than is possible with traditional methods.

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Cross-impact analysis (CIA)Cross-impact analysis is planned to study the impact of an event on other events. The cross-impact analysis

provides the time probability of occurrence of an event and indicates other key events which may bemonitored to keep track of the first event.

With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set ofoccurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies positively ornegatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is present. Thus,using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event will have an

enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected. With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of

occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies positively ornegatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is present. Thus,using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event will have anenhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.

Cross-impact analysis is a technique used for examining the impacts of potential future events upon each other. Itindicates the relative importance of specific events, identifies groups of reinforcing or inhibiting events, andunfolds relationships between events which appear unrelated. In brief, cross-impact analysis provides afuture forecast, making due allowance for interacting forces having a bearing on the shape of things to come.

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M t d CIA C I t A l i


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Metoda CIA - Cross-Impact Analysis

O limitare de baza metodelor clasice de previziune ia metodei Delphi este cacestea realizeaznumai prognoze oarecum izolate;mai exa

14-15 MTT Transfer Technology 28102014

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