12-13 Curs MTT Prognoza Tech 2604122010 Actualizat

8/12/2019 12-13 Curs MTT Prognoza Tech 2604122010 Actualizat

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MTT

Managementul transferului de

tehnologie

Masterat - Managementul afacerilor

prin proiecte, 20122013Semestrul I

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Cuprins

Technological forecasting

Modelling diffusion

Valori si cultura in Romaniamodelul HOFSTEDE ptr Romania

Cross impact analysisstudiu de caz - Knowledge society

GEM 2009-2011



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Prognoztehnologic(TechnologicalForecasting - TF)

toate ncercrile intenionatei sistematice pentru a anticipa ia nelegedireciapotenial, rata, caracteristicile iefectele schimbrilortehnologice, nspecial deinvenie, inovare, adoptare iutilizare

companiile mici depind de inovaiitehnologice pentru existenalor

marile companii au nevoie de TF, nmai multe forme pentru a:

Prioritiza C & D,

Planifica de dezvoltare de noi produse,

Asigura elaborarea deciziilor strategice privind acordarea de licene tehnologice,societimixte, etc.

guvernele folosesc studii prospective naionale pentru a evalua cursul i impactulschimbrii tehnologice cu scopul efecturii de politici publice. Aceasta includeceea ce este cunoscut sub numele de evaluare tehnologic (AT) sau analiz deimpact social, care examineaz efectele probabile pe termen lung ale dezvoltriitehnologice pe masurce impactul acesteia se extinde nntreagasocietate.

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Families of Technological ForecastingMethods

9 families: Expert Opinion, Trend Analysis,Monitoring & Intelligence, Modeling &Simulation, Scenarios, Statistical, Descriptive,Creativity, and Valuing/ Decision / EconomicsMethods.

1) Expert Opinion; Delphi (iterative survey); FocusGroups [panels, workshops]; Interviews;Participatory Techniques

2) Trend Analysis; Trend Extrapolation [GrowthCurve Fitting]; Trend Impact Analysis; PrecursorAnalysis; Long Wave Analysis

3) Monitoring and Intelligence Methods:Monitoring [environmental scanning, technology

watch]; Bibliometrics [research profiling; patentanalysis, text mining]

4) Statistical Methods: Correlation Analysis,Demographics, Cross Impact Analysis, RiskAnalysis, Bibliometrics [research profiling;patent analysis, text mining]

5) Scenarios: Scenarios [scenarios with consistencychecks; scenario management]; Scenario-simulation [gaming; interactive scenarios]; Field

Anomaly Relaxation Method [FAR]

6) Modeling and Simulation: Agent Modeling, Cross ImpactAnalysis, Sustainability Analysis [life cycle analysis],Causal Models, Diffusion Modeling, Complex AdaptiveSystem Modeling (CAS) [Chaos]; Systems Simulation[System Dynamics, KSIM]; Technological Substitution;Scenario-simulation [gaming; interactive scenarios];

Economic base modeling [input-output analysis];Technology Assessment

7) Valuing/Decision/Economics Methods: Relevance Trees[futures wheel], Action [options] Analysis; Cost-benefitanalysis, Decision anaysis [utility analyses]; Economicbase modeling [input-output analysis];

8) Descriptive and Matrices Methods: Analogies,Backcasting, Checklist for Impact Identification;Innovation System Modeling; Institutional Analysis,;

Mitigation Analysis; Morphological Analysis;Roadmapping [product-technology rodmapping]; SocialImpact Assessment; Multiple perspectives assessment;Organizational analysis; Requirements Analysis [needsanalysis]

9) Creativity; Brainstorming [brainwriting; nominal groupprocess (NGP)]; Creativity Workshops [futureworkshops]; TRIZ; Vision Generation; Science FictionAnalysis



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S-curve

(S-shaped curve)

is a graph commonly encountered when plotting various aspects of technologicaldevelopments. For example, growth of knowledge in a newly opened field(Isenson and Hartman models), adoption of a new technology are often very welldescribed by an S-curve.

The illustration shows how successive technologies for tire cords (cotton, rayon,nylon and polyester) outperformed older ones and replaced them in the

marketplace. After a certain point spending money on research in the old field issimply pointless and the old technology dies out.

Similar graphs can be made for generational changes in various areas, with newproducts starting small, gaining momentum, quickly winning the marketplace andthen slowly reaching the saturation.



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The envelope S-curve

"One adaptation of the S-curve is known as the envelope S-curve, which takes into consideration successive generationsof technologies that provide the same benefits. The term"envelope" refers to the curve that connects the tangents ofthe successive individual S-shaped curves.

A combination of successive S-curves can produce linearly orexponentially growing graph. For example, many successiveparadigms in computing, taken together produce exponentialgrowth in computational capacity over 100 years (Kurzweil,2001, 2003).



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Forbesmagazine - technology diffusion rates for various media andcommunications technologies since their year of inception

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/adam_thierer/3574787140/


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How long it took before various technologies reached 50% householdpenetration?

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The extent of household diffusion over time

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Modelling diffusion

S-Curve Example- shows the time of adoption of buyers for the

product. If the buyer is to the left of the

vertical line in their time of adoption theyare innovators, early adopters or part of

the early majority, if to the right they are

the late majority or the laggards.

Time of Adoption of

Innovation displays differenttypes of S curves developed from

alternative types of product salesforecasting models. They will be

discussed in detail in a latter section of

this investigation.

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S-Curves for the Diffusion of Innovations

The "S-curve" model is what is known as a"single purchase" model in that it forecastssales of products that are typically boughtjust once, or infrequently, such as consumerdurables or industrial products such asmainframe computers.

In addition, the model can be used to forecasttrial or first time purchases for repeatpurchase goods such as snack foods anddetergents, but it does not provide a forecastof repeat purchase levels.

In order to estimate repeat purchase sales anddifferentiate them from trial sales,businesses would typically need to carry outtest markets or simulated test markets andapply different forecasting methods thatwould provide a steady-state market shareestimate rather than a time-based

Adoption curve as is provided by diffusionmodels. However, all products, regardless ofhow often they are purchased, have a firstpurchase sales volume curve.

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The diffusion of an innovation is a complex processinvolving large numbers of individual decisions

Van den Bulte and Stremersch (2004) performed a meta-analysis on the use of the Bass modelapplied to new product diffusion. The study involved 746 different Bass estimations spreadover 75 consumer durables and 77 countries. The international comparison enabled them totest several sets of hypotheses, relating the diffusion to both the national culture and thenature of the product. The contagion-based hypotheses for which they found support are that(q/p) ratios are:

negatively associated with individualism (individualism means more immunity to socialcontagion) or positively associated with collectivism;

positively associated with power-distance (a measure of the hierarchical nature of theculture). The assumption here is that classestend to adopt a new product at a similartime;

positively associated with masculinity (cultures where there is a clear distinction betweengender roles).

Contrary to their expectations, they found a negative association with uncertainty avoidance (ameasure of how threatened people feel when faced with a novel opportunity).A positiveassociation is found between q/pand the Gini coefficient of income inequality, supporting theincome heterogeneity hypothesis.

In cases where the products concerned had competing standards e.g. VCRs (Betamax versus VHS),PCs (DOS/Windows versus Apple), they found that this technological issue dominated thesocial or income effects.

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Dimesiuni culturale - modelul G. Hosftede (2012)

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90

30

42

90

40

85

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

PD

IND

MAS

UA

Romania Bulgaria


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Valorile si comportamentul romanescn anii '60-70, profesorul Geert Hofstede de la Universitatea din Maastricht a realizat o cercetare asupra

diferentelor de valori ntreangajatii firmei IBM din peste 40 de tari si a ajuns la concluzia ca fiecare natiunepoate fi descrisa din perspectiva locului pe care locupa pe o scala de la 0 la 100 fata de:

Indexul distantei fata de putere - PDI- (Modul de perceptie al inegalitatii sociale, al puterii si al autoritatii simodul de relationare cu autoritatea);

Individualism - IDV- (Modul de relationare ntreindivizi si grupuri); Masculinitate - MAS - (Implicatiile sociale si emotionale ale faptului de a fi nascut de sex masculin sau

feminin);

Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii - UAI - (Modalitati de a face fata incertitudinilor si situatiilor ambigue,controlul agresiunii si exprimarea emotiilor);

Orientare pe termen lung - LTO - (Orientarea catre viitor, spre deosebire de orientarea catre trecut siprezent).

Intentia initiala a lui Hofstede a fost de a ntelegede ce unele organizatii IBM din tari diferite erau mai productivedecat altele, desi aveau o cultura organizationala similara si foloseau aceleasi tehnici de recrutare, care ar fiputut induce comportamente similare. Concluzia lui Hofstede a fost ca angajatii din organizatii sivor nsusipracticilelocale sau straine pe care le indica organizatia, dar sivor pastra valorileculturii din care provinsi care icaracterizeaza.

- implicatiile acestor dimensiuni asupra comportamentului de la locul de munca si, nconsecinta, cele mai aplicabile teorii de management simanagement al resurselor umane ndiferite culturi.

PDI poate functiona ca un barometru al nivelului de coruptie pe care lfavorizeaza o anumita cultura.IDV este direct proportional cu PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor: cu cat PIB-ul creste, cu atat creste nivelul de individualism.

UAI semnalizeaza gradul de toleranta fata de minoritati, deschiderea spre noile tehnologii si cantitatea de timp petrecuta pentru planificarestrategica norganizatii.

LTO pot indica nivelul de economii al oamenilor din cultura respectiva si nivelul de investitii nvalori imobiliare.

Sursa: Autor Adina LUCA, revista Cariere: 19 mai 2005; Studiul a fost realizat de organizatia Gallup Romania, cu sprijinul lui Geert Jan Hofstede; proiect ce reprezinta o noua etapa nncercareade a

ntelegediferentele si similitudinile dintre valorile si comportamentul romanesc si cel al altor natiuni si o modalitate de a oferi explicatii pentru comportamentul si preferintele romanilor.

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Valorile si comportamentul romanesc -Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe

scurt

Implicatii ale dimensiunilor culturale - Pozitia relativa a unei tari pe scala de la 0 (scazut) la 100 (nalt)din cele cinci puncte de vedere este un bun predictor al comportamentului si normelor sociale, defamilie si educatie, comportamentului la locul de munca, organizarea statala, culoarea politica siideile. Datele unei astfel de cercetari sunt interpretabile astfel, din punctul de vedere al scalei de la0 la 100: ntre0 si 40 - nivel scazut, ntre40 si 60 - nivel mediu, peste 60 - nivel ridicat.

Cercetarea a demonstrat ca Romania are valori similare cu alte tari balcanice, si anume: distanta marefata de autoritate, colectivism ridicat, feminitate, grad ridicat de evitare a incertitudinilor siorientare pe termen scurt. Putem concluziona ca Romania, asemenea celorlalte tari din Balcani(Bulgaria, Grecia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania), se afla la polul opus tarilor anglo-saxone, din caremprumutatoate practicile manageriale si de management al resurselor umane.

Geert Hofstede a estimat pentru Romania niveluri foarte ridicate pentru indicii reprezentanddistanta fata de putere (90) si evitare a incertitudinii (61), nivel scazut pentru indicelereprezentand individualismul, adica un grad ridicat de colectivism (30) si un grad moderat

de masculinitate (42). Desi nu a oferit o estimare pentru orientarea pe termen lung, putemprespune ca si Romania are, ca si toate tarile din Europa, o orientare pe termen scurt.

Complexul puterii - Indexul distantei fata de putere a rezultat surprinzator de scazut. Specialistii de laInteract considera ca nivelul PDI este n realitate foarte nalt, cel putin 70. Romanii, ngeneral,prefera sa nu intervina n exercitiul autoritatii si sa se supuna ordinelor date de sus. Prin acestcomportament, romanii semnalizeaza nevoia de centralizare nluarea deciziilor, nevoia de a avealideri autoritari si dorinta de a urma regulile stabilite de astfel de lideri.

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Valorile si comportamentul romanesc -Rezultatele studiului din 2005 pentru Romania, pe scurt

O alta interpretare a unui index ridicat indica preferinta angajatilor pentru o relatie apropiata cu unsingur sef, pentru a obtine protectia acestuia si pentru a evita asumarea responsabilitatii unorpareri contrare.

Personalul din organizatii cu astfel de culturi nu exprima pareri contrare fata de superior si primeste ordine pecare le executa fara sa discute. nconcluzie,ntimp ce comportamentul populatiei demonstreaza o distantamare fata de autoritate, preferinta sendreaptaspre un stil de conducere participativ si cooperant. Diferentaobservabila dintre nivelul dorit si nivelul demonstrat prin comportament ne-a dus la concluzia existentei unuicomplex de autoritate, care poate explica refuzul cu obstinatie si nedeclarat al majoritatii romanilor de a respectalegile si autoritatea si, n acelasi timp, cererea expresa de legi si reguli. Aceasta diferenta poate explica si alte

paradoxuri, cum ar fi preferinta pentru a lucra ntr-un mediu anglo-american, cu stil de conducere participativ, prindistanta mica fata de autoritate, precum si comportamentul pro-american al generatiilor trecute.Indexul de evitare a incertitudinii n Romania - Romania a nregistrat un nivel ridicat de evitare a

incertitudinii - 61 - care demonstreaza ca populatia are un grad ridicat de anxietate n privintaviitorului si prefera siguranta zilei de astazi incertitudinii zilei de maine : Nuda vrabia din manape cioara de pe gard. O astfel de societate nu poate planifica strategic pe termen mai lung, pentruca privireanviitorideclanseaza mecanisme defensive.

Unii romani au dificultati na face fata unor situatii ambigue si opiniilor contrare ale altora. Daca luam n

consideratie si gradul scazut de individualism, membrii societatii nu pot tolera opinii minoritare. ngeneral, oamenii din astfel de culturi se simt mai confortabil nsituatii de consens general. ntimpuricare genereaza anxietate, cum sunt alegerile, amenintari contra securitatii si sigurantei, sau n fatanecesitatii de a accepta ceva nou, strain, cum este tehnologia avansata sau existenta unui partidminoritar, populatia reactioneaza negativ si emotional si se opune acceptarii. Nivelul ridicat deanxietate are impact si asupra structurii organizationale. Actiunile preferate sunt cele care rezolvasituatia ambigua de astazi, quick fixes, fara a avea n vedere impactul lor asupra zilei demaine.Nivelul de anxietate favorizeaza impulsul de moment, graba si exprimarea emotiei negative

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Trend-impact analysis (TIA)

Trend-impact analysis is a technique developed by the Futures Group, Inc., a consulting firm, for

projecting future trends from information gathered on past behavior. The uniqueness of this method lies

in its combination of statistical methods and human judgment. If the future is predicted on quantitative

data alone, it fails to take into account the impact of unprecedented future events. On the other hand,

human judgment provides only subjective insights into the future. Therefore, since both humanjudgment and statistical extrapolation have their shortcomings, they should both be taken into

consideration when predicting future trends.

In trend-impact analysis (TIA), past history is first extrapolated with the help of a computer. Then the

judgment of experts is used (usually by means of the Delphi technique) to specify a set of unique future

events which may have a bearing on the phenomenon under study and to indicate how the trend

extrapolation would be affected by the occurrence of each of these events. The computer then uses these

judgments to modify the trend extrapolation. Finally, the experts review the adjusted extrapolation andmodify the inputs in those cases in which the input appears unreasonable.

TIA can be used not only to improve forecasts of time series variables, but also to study the sensitivity

of these forecasts to policy. Of course, any policy considered should attempt to influence as many

events as possible, rather than one as in this example. Realistically, corporate actions often have both

beneficial and detrimental possibilities since they may increase both desirable and undesirable

possibilities. The use of TIA can make such uncertainties more clearly visible than is possible with

traditional methods.

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Cross-impact analysis (CIA)

Cross-impact analysis is planned to study the impact of an event on other events. The cross-impact

analysis provides the time probability of occurrence of an event and indicates other key events which

may be monitored to keep track of the first event.

With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of

occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies

positively or negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is

present. Thus, using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event

will have an enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected.

With the cross-impact matrix the effects of potential interactions among items in a forecast set of

occurrences can be investigated. If the behavior of an individual item is probable, (i.e., if it varies

positively or negatively with the occurrence or nonoccurrence of other items), the cross-impact effect is

present. Thus, using the cross-impact matrix method, it can be determined whether the predicted event

will have an enhancing or inhibiting influence upon each of the other events affected. Cross-impact analysis is a technique used for examining the impacts of potential future events upon

each other. It indicates the relative importance of specific events, identifies groups of reinforcing or

inhibiting events, and unfolds relationships between events which appear unrelated. In brief, cross-

impact analysis provides a future forecast, making due allowance for interacting forces having a bearing

on the shape of things to come.

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Metoda CIA - Cross-Impact Analysis

O limitare de baza metodelor clasice de previziune ia metodei Delphi este cacestea realizeaznumai prognoze oarecum izolate;mai exact, evenimentele itendintele (trendurile) sunt proiectate pe rnd,fro referire explicita posibilei influenereciproce.Totui,majoritatea evenimentelor ia evoluiilorsunt dependente ntreele. Interdependenelentreaceste evenimente ievoluii

pot fi luate n considerare prin anali za cross-impact - o modalitate sistematic de a examina posibile evoluiile viitoare iinteraciunilelor; metoda care ncearcsindice probabilitatea condiionata unui eveniment, inndcont de faptul canumiteevenimente s-au produs sau nu. Paiimajori nutilizarea analizei cross-impact pentru evaluarea situaiilorviitoare sunt descriide

ctreHelmer (1977) iFowles (1978) ca fiind: definirea evenimentelor ia trendurilor ce vor fi incluse nstudiu;

definirea intervalului de planificare ia subintervalelor (secvene/ scene);

realizarea matricelor cross-impactpentru definirea interdependenelordintre evenimente itrenduri;

estimarea intrrilorpentru matricea cross-impact, spre exemplu, informaiicu privire la modul ncare ar afecta apariiaunui evenimentE saudeviaiaunui trend T, de la valorile ateptatencadrul unei secvenedate,probabilitilealtui eveniment ivalorile trendurilor nsecveneleulterioare;

estimareaprobabilitiloriniialede manifestare ale fiecruieveniment in fiecare scen; estimarea valorii fiecruitrend la nceputulfiecreisecvene; realizarea unui test de calibrare;

definirea politicilor, aciunilorsau a testelor de senzitivitate ce vor fi utilizate cu matricea;

realizarea calculelor cross-impact; evaluarea rezultatelor.

Conceptul cross-impact (impactncruciat)a fost propus de O. Helmer iT. Gordon, avndlegturcu proiectarea unui exerciiudepreviziune pentru Kaiser-Aluminum (Helmer, 1977). In aceastabordare, evenimentele erau nregistratentr-o matrice ortogonal(dreptunghiular)ila fiecare interseciede linii/coloane se punea ntrebarea:Dacse va ntmplaevenimentul de pe linie, cumar afecta probabilitatea de apariie(manifestare) a evenimentului din coloana?Aprecierile erau nregistratein celulele matricei.Allen (1977) afirma c majoritatea metodelor de forecasting nu pot lua in considerare multe inter- reacii intre evenimentele

prognozate.

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Metoda de Prognoza - M atri cea Cross Impact (I mpact I ncrucisat)

Probabilitile iniiale de manifestare a evenimentelor, valorile trendurilor i magnitudinea impactului dintrevariabile pot fi estimate de ctreexperiindividuali. In general, acestea sunt estimate de ctregrupuri ce coninexperi din cadrul diferitelor discipline acoperite de evenimente (Fowles, 1978). Pentru a colecta acesteaprecieri, pot fi folosite, de asemenea, chestionarele sau interviurile de tip Delphi. Echipa Gordon - Hayward

(1968) definete trei moduri de legtur ntrevariabile. Se presupune cevenimentul E1se manifest; un al

doilea evenimentE2ar putea fi complet neafectatde ctreE1; ar putea fi exacerbat/intensificatde manifestarealuiE1; sau poate fi inhibatde manifestarea luiE1. Intensificarea legturilor,acolo unde probabilitatea celui deal doilea eveniment este mbuntitde manifestarea primului, rezultdin diferite mecanisme, incluznd:

Manifestarea luiE1 facefezabilsaupracticposibilmanifestarea luiE2. O astfel de relaieeste desemnatcao relaiece faciliteaz/permite(favorizeaza).

Manifestarea lui E1 oblig manifestarea lui E2pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E1. O astfel de relaie deintensificare este desemnatca relaiece provoac.

Inhibarea legturilor, acolo unde probabilitatea celui de al doilea eveniment este diminuat de manifestareaprimului, rezultdin mecanisme incluznd:

Manifestarea luiE1face caE2sfie nefezabil sau nepractic. Acest tip de relaiede inhibare este desemnat a fide denigrare.

Manifestarea lui E1 oblig nemanifestarea lui E2pentru utilizarea eficient a lui E1. O astfel de relaie deinhibare este desemnata fi o relaieantagonist.

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Matr icea Cross Impact (I mpactIncrucisat) (2)

Odatce modelul de impact ncruciata fost realizat, ar trebui sfie utilizat in mod iterativ, Helmer (1977) adescris un proces complet astfel: n etapa 1, se decide asupra evenimentelor ce se vor manifesta (prinintermediul unei simulriMonte Carlo, de extragere a unor numere aleatorii); se ajusteazprobabilitileevenimentelor ivalorile trendurilor pentru etapa 2, nconcordancu matricea cross-impact;

se trece la etapa 2, ajustndncontinuare valorile trendurilor, adugnddeviaiialeatorii ce au fost extrase

din distribuiaexogende incertitudine adecvat. Se decide din nou ce evenimente se manifest, se ajusteazprobabilitile evenimentelor i valorile

trendurilor pentru etapa 3, in concordancu impactul ncruciatpentru evenimentul respectiv; se observadeviaiileT ale valorilor trendurilor de la valorile ateptateale acestora, ncadrul etapei 2, ise ajusteazincontinuareprobabilitileevenimentelor si valorile trendurilor pentru etapei 3, in concordancu impactulncruciatpentru trendul respectiv; se aplicreportul acolo unde este cazul.

se repetprocedura pentru etapele 3, 4 si aamai departe.

Rezultatul va fi un scenariu,care este o secvenade manifestriale evenimentelor, pe scene, si o secvenade ajustriale valorilor trendurilor. Diferite rundevor produce scenarii diferite din cauza elementeloraleatorii prezente. Abilitatea de a adugainformaii(de exemplu, schimbride politica) ce nu au fcutpartedin informaiile iniiale,face dintr-un model interactiv cross-impact, o tehnicce are final deschis pentruanalize exploratorii (Enzer si Alter, 1978).

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Identificarea variabilelor cheie

- indicator de influen msoarintensitatea cu care o variabilacioneaz asupra celorlalte(corespunde rndurilordin matrice)

- indicator de dependent msoarintensitatea cu care o variabil esteinfluenat (este asociat coloanelordin matrice)

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http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_structural-analysis.htm


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Metoda CIA a incercat sa reprezinte principalele relatii dintre factori cheieale SocietatiiCunoasterii si principalele lor forme de impact asupra factorilor asociati conditii lor deviata la nivel european (LC), relatiil or industriale (I R) si conditi il or de munca (WC).

Sursa: Xtreme EUFORIA: Combining Foresight Methods, EU-US SEMINAR: NEW TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT, FORECASTING &ASSESSMENT METHODS-Seville 13-14 May 2004

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Analiza CIAKnowledge society

Analiza cross-impact este o tehnica utilizata pentru a identifica si intelege

corelatia dintre variabile. A fost implementata mai ales in exercitiile de

foresight din Franta si America Latina, ca un instrument de identificare a

modului in care evolutiile social-economice si tehnologie dintr-o arie arputea influenta alte arii. Beneficiul major al utilizarii analizei cross-

impact este abilitatea de a releva relatiile dintre variabilele unui

sistem.

Exercitiul CIA a contribuit la (1) identificarea influentei variabilelor

Societatii Cunoasterii asupra impactelor de trend ale conditiilor de viata,conditiilor de munca si relatiilor industriale; (2) identificarea celor mai

puternice si celor mai inhibate impacte de trend; (3) identificareavariabilelor consistente pentru Societatea Cunoasterii; si (4) identificarea

celor mai puternice impacte si a celor mai fragile.

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Analiza Influenei Critice (AIC)

Metoda AIC/CIA include numeroase elemente utilizate de cele mai multe ori in conferinele despre Foresight(exercitiu de prospectiva/previziune) i,mai ales, in cadrul analizei impactului incruciat, inclusiv un proces ncare participanii identific i analizeaz elementele care conduc la schimbri i factorii importani care leinflueneaz(incearcsconfere prioritate acestora nfunciede importanetc). AIC este o tehnicutilizatpentru a identifica i nelege corelaia dintre variabile. Cel mai mare beneficiu al utilizrii acestei analize

reziddin abilitatea metodei de a dezvluirelaiileexistente ntrevariabilele unui sistem. Metoda CIA foloseteo matrice 15x10 - attsetul de 15 factori de influenctisetul de 10 tendineprevizionate nceea ceprivetecondiiilede via(LC) , relaiileindustriale (IR) icondiiilede munc(WC).

Structura a fost conceput prin sesiuni de brainstorming asociate cu un proces de prioritizare al crui scop eraselectarea celor 15 factori cheie ia celor 10 efecte. Relaiileau fost reprezentate ntr-o matrice ale crei150de celule au fost completate prin prismajudecilorexperilor. Acetiaau fost rugaisatribuie valori utilizndurmtoareascal:.

-3 daca un anumit factor ar avea un efect de inhibare puternic asupra impactului tendinei;-2 pentru o influennegativmoderat;

-1 pentru o influenuornegativ;

0 pentru un efect neutru sau pentru o influenechilibrat;

+1 pentru un factor cu o influenuorpozitivsau un efect de ntrirea impactului;

+2 pentru un efect pozitiv moderat;

+3 pentru o influenpozitivfoarteputernic.

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Lista variabilelor Societatii Cunoasterii - Lista factorilordeterminani ai Societii Bazate pe Cunotine

Variabila 01. Scaderea increderii cu privire la (e-) tranzactii si la protectia datelor

Variabila 02. Cresterea cererii pentru serviciile necalificate (low skill services) si scaderea ofertei

Variabila 03. Extinderea UE la 25+ si chiar mai mult

Variabila 04. Cresterea ratei pentru schimbarile climatice si incalzirea globale

Variabila 05. Cresterea gradului preferinta ptr. medii artificiale preferinta de a petrece timpul liber, spreexemplu in parcuri tematice.

Variabila 06. Cresterea importantei educatiei cu privire la mediu natural

Variabila 07. Globalizarea: Dezvoltarea Guvernarii Globale si aparitia cresterii complexitatii in interactiunile

intereselor locale

Variabila 08. Schimbarea prioritatilor politice, spre exemplu catre durabilitate

Variabila 09. Evolutia democratiei intr-un mediu E-Government

Variabila 10. Imbtrnireasocietatii (ageing society) intensificata in special de largirea UE Variabila 11. Cresterea eterogenitatii in ceea ce priveste formele de familie

Variabila 12. Noi provocari pentru asistenta sociala si pentru sistemul de sanatate publica

Variabila 13. Larga aplicare a noilor tehnologii in cadrul serviciilor publice, cu largi implicatii pentrusanatate, pentru educatie (dar si preocupari private).

Variabila 14. Ampla dezvoltare si raspandire a noilor metode de producere, localizare, distributie si

management pentru informatii destinate indivizilor si organizatiilor

Variabila 15. Cresterea continua a tuturor aspectelor performantelor ICT (spre exemplu conectare wireless,stocare, dimensiune) 28MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013


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Lista formelor de impact al Societatii Cunoasteriiasupra conditiilor de viata, relatiilor industriale siconditiilor de viata

Impactul 01. Presiunea asupra muncii constrnge/tensioneazabalana/echilibrul muncvia

Impactul 02. Aparitia unor noi forme de ingrijire a copiilor si de asistenta a celor in varsta

Impactul 03. Apariia unei societi dualiste care i vede pe cei nstrii trecnd la sistemulprivat de prestare a serviciilor, ntimp ce cel public rmnecelor sraci

Impactul 04. Incertitudinea iconstrngerile de la locul de munccreeaz stres imai multeprobleme de sntateasociate

Impactul 05. mbtrnireaforeide munceste incompatibilcu programul de lucru prelungit

Impactul 06. Creterea nivelului de (cyber)securitate n cadrul firmelor duce la cretereagradului de supraveghere a angajailor

Impactul 07. Mai multmuncmulti-locaie

Impactul 08. Tendine divergente n ceea ce privete contractele individuale i condiiile demuncneo-Taylor-iste

Impactul 09. Sindicatele devin tot mai inovatoare nrecrutarea ipstrareadiverselor segmenteale foreide munc(de exemplu, contracte temporare de munc)

Impactul 10. Ocuparea locurilor de muncde ctre imigraninecalificai conduce la friciunintremuncitorii striniicei autohtoni.

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GEM 2011, 2011 Extended Report:Entrepreneurs and Entrepreneur ial Employees Acrossthe Globe, Niels Bosma, Sander Wennekers and Jos Ernesto Amors

Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2011 byDonna J. Kelley, Slavica Singer and Mike Herrington

The GEM 2011 Global Report focuses onentrepreneurs and entrepreneurial employees

across the globe. More than 140,000 adults

(1864 years of age) in 54 economies,spanning diverse geographies and a range of

development levels were surveyed. Based on

this survey, GEM estimated that 388 millionentrepreneurs were actively engaged in

starting and running new businesses in 2011.

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GEM - definitions, objectives

GEM operationalizes entrepreneurship as: any attempt at new business ornew venture creation, such as selfemployment, a new business

organization, or the expansion of an existing business, by an individual, a

team of individuals, or an established business.

- focuses on three main objectives:To measure differences in the level of entrepreneurial activity among countriesTo uncover factors determining national levels of entrepreneurial activityTo identify policies that may enhance the national level of entrepreneurial activity.

Traditional analyses of economic growth and competitiveness have tended toneglect the role played by new and small firms in national economies.

GEM takes a comprehensive approach and considers the degree ofinvolvement in entrepreneurial activity within a country, identifyingdifferent types and phases of entrepreneurship.

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2011 GEM Global ReportAll three types of entrepreneurship, i.e.

ambitious entrepreneurship in the sense of medium/high job growth expectation

early - stage entrepreneurial activity (MHEA),

lessambitiousentrepreneurship In the sense of solo/ low job expectation early -

stage entrepreneurial activity (SLEA) and

entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA), in order to give a morecomprehensive profile of entrepreneurship for each of the 52 countries that have

participated in both the regular 2011 GEM Cycle.

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The importance of entrepreneurship foreconomic development

Business entrepreneursdrive and shape innovation, they speed up structuralchanges in the economy, and they introduce new competition, therebycontributing to productivity.

Social entrepreneursperform a similar function in the social economy, fillinggaps in social needs that are left unfilled or poorly addressed by both

business and governments.

As an economy develops, the level of necessity-driven entrepreneurialactivity gradually declines as productive sectors grow and supply moreemployment opportunities.

At the same time, opportunity-driven entrepreneurial activity tends to pickup with improvements in wealth and infrastructure, introducing aqualitative change in overall entrepreneurial activity.

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Global Entrepreneurship Monitor

Dedicated to understanding the relationship between entrepreneurship and nationaleconomic development

54 countries; 13th report in the GEM series focuses on the impact of the recession on

entrepreneurship and the extent to which entrepreneurship can help reverse a

downward economic trend.

2011 GEM data show that: entrepreneurial activity declined in most GEM countries in

2011; the global economic downturn reduced the number of people who thought therewere good opportunities to start a business in many parts of the world.

the proportion of necessity-driven entrepreneurs-people starting businesses because

they felt they had no other choice-increased and attitudes towards entrepreneurship

as a career choice improved in half of the wealthier countries in GEM.

- is framed around a model, that includes a distinction among phases of economic

development, in line with Porters typology of factor driven economies,efficiency-driven economiesand innovation-driven economies

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The GEM model

entrepreneurship is a complex phenomenon which spans a variety of contexts . In line withits objectives, GEM takes a broad view of entrepreneurship and focuses on the role playedby individuals in the entrepreneurial process.

entrepreneurship is a process.

GEM observes the actions of entrepreneurs who are at different stages of the process of creating

and sustaining a business.For GEM, the payment of any wages for more than three months to anybody, including theowners, is considered to be the birth event of actual businesses. Individuals who areactively committing resources to start a business that they expect to own themselves, butwho have not reached this birtheventare labeled nascent entrepreneurs.

Individuals who currently own and manage a new business that has paid salaries for more thanthree months but not more than 42 months are known as new business owner-managers. Thecut-off point of 42 months has been made on a combination of theoretical and operational

grounds.The prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs and new business owner-managers taken together

may be viewed as an indicator of early-stage entrepreneurial activity in a country. Itrepresents dynamic new firm activitythe extent of experimentation in new business modelsby a national population. Established business owners own and manage an establishedbusiness that has been in operation for more than 42 months. Their businesses have survivedthe liability of newness. High rates of established business ownership may indicate positiveconditions for firm survival. However, this is not necessarily the case. If a country exhibits a

high degree of established entrepreneurship combined with low degree of early stageentrepreneurial activity, this indicates a low level of dynamism in entrepreneurial activity.36MAPP sem I MTT - 2012-2013


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The Entrepreneurial Process and GEM

operational definitions

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The countries

- are grouped into three stages of economic development as defined by theWorld Economic Forums Global Competitiveness Report: factor-driven, efficiency-driven and innovation-driven.

This classification in phases of economic development is based on the levelof GDP per capitaand the extent to which countries are factor driven interms of the shares of exports of primary goods in total exports.

Factor-driven economiesare primarily extractive in nature, while efficiency-driven economiesexhibit scale-intensity as a major driver of development.

At the innovation-driven stage of development, economies are characterizedby their production of new and unique goods and services that are createdvia sophisticated, and often pioneering, methods.

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Entrepreneurship in Innovation-Driven Economies

As an economy matures and its wealth increases, one may expect the emphasis inindustrial activity to gradually shift toward an expanding service sector that catersto the needs of an increasingly affluent population and supplies the servicesnormally expected of a high-income society.

The industrial sector evolves and experiences improvements in variety and

sophistication. Such a development would be typically associated with increasingresearch & development and knowledge intensity, as knowledge-generatinginstitutions in the economy gain momentum.

This development opens the way for the development of innovative, opportunity-seeking entrepreneurial activity that is not afraid to challenge establishedincumbents in the economy. Often, small and innovative entrepreneurial firmsenjoy an innovation productivity advantage over large incumbents, enabling them

to operate as agentsof creative destruction.To the extent that the economic and financial institutions created during the scale-

intensive phase of the economy are able to accommodate and support opportunity-seeking entrepreneurial activity, innovative entrepreneurial firms may emerge assignificant drivers of economic growth and wealth creation.

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TYPOLOGY OF ECONOMIES BASED ON THREEDIMENSIONS OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Type A: high prevalence of three types of entrepreneurial

activity (SLEA, MHEA and EEA)

Type B: high prevalence of medium/high job expectation

entrepreneurship (MHEA) and high prevalence of

entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA)

Type C: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation

entrepreneurship (SLEA) and high prevalence of

medium/high job expectation entrepreneurship (MHEA)

Type D: high prevalence of medium/high job expectation

entrepreneurship (MHEA) only

Type E: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation

entrepreneurship (SLEA) and high prevalence of

Entrepreneurial employee activity (EEA)

Type F: high prevalence of entrepreneurial employee

activity (EEA) Only

Type G: high prevalence of solo/low job expectation

entrepreneurship (SLEA) only Type H: low prevalence of

three types of entrepreneurial activity (SLEA, MHEA and

EEA)

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2011 GEM report

Entrepreneurial attitudes and perceptions reflect the degree to which individuals

in economies tend to appreciate entrepreneurship, both in terms of general

attitudes and in terms of self-perceptions: how many individuals recognize

business opportunities, how many believe they have the skills and knowledge to

exploit such opportunities and how many would refrain from exploiting suchopportunities through fear of failure?

Entrepreneurial activity measures the observed involvement of Individuals in

different phases of entrepreneurial activity. It also tracks the degree to which

entrepreneurial activities are driven By opportunity and/or necessity.

Discontinuations of entrepreneurial activity (and the reasons for doing so) are

also estimated from GEM adult population surveys. Entrepreneurial aspirations are of key importance in addressing the (socio)

economic impact of entrepreneurial behavior. Entrepreneurs that expect to create

jobs, to be involved in international trade and/or to contribute to society by

offering new products and services are of particular interest.

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ENTREPRENEURIAL ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS IN THE GEM COUNTRIESIN 2011 BY PHASE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (% OF POPULATION AGED 18- 64)

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Entrepreneurial Perceptions, Intentions and SocietalAttitudes in 54 Economies, 2011some efficiency

driven countries

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Entrepreneurial attitudes

Entrepreneurial attitudes are important because they express the general feelings of the population towardentrepreneurs and entrepreneurship. Countries need people who can recognize valuable business opportunities,and who perceive they have the required skills to exploit these opportunities. Moreover, if national attitudestoward entrepreneurship are positive, this will generate cultural support, help, financial resources, and networkingbenefits to those who are already entrepreneurs or want to start a business.

For example, the extent to which people think there are good opportunities for starting a business , or the degreeto which they attach high status to entrepreneurs, might be termed entrepreneurial attitudes.

Other relevant attitudes might include the level of risk that individuals might be willing to bearand individualsperception of their own skills, knowledge, and experience in business creation.

Entrepreneurial attitudes can influence entrepreneurial activity but can also be influenced by entrepreneurial activity.For example, the legitimacy of entrepreneurship in a society, as expressed in positive entrepreneurial attitudes,can be influenced by whether people know anyone who has started a business recently. This can be a function ofboth levels of entrepreneurial activity and social networking activity in the society. Individuals who know otherindividuals who recently started a business may, through familiarity with the process, be more likely to see it aslegitimate.

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Entrepreneurial activity

- is best seen as a process rather than an event. That is why GEM measuresentrepreneurial intentions, nascent, new, and established business activity, andbusiness discontinuation activity. Examining multiple components of entrepreneurialactivity also allows us to explore differences among the entrepreneurial processesacross the three major phases of national economic development.

- can take on many forms, but one important aspect is the extent to which people in apopulation are creating new business activity, both in absoluteterms and relativeto other economic activities, such as business closure. Within the realm of newbusiness activity, different types of entrepreneurial activity can be distinguished.

For example, business creation may vary by industry sector, by the size of the founding

team, and by whether the new venture is legally independent of other businesses, andin terms of founder demographics, such as gender, age, or education.

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Entrepreneurial Activity in 54 Economies by Phase of EconomicDevelopment, 2011

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Entrepreneurial aspiration- reflects the qualitative nature of entrepreneurial activity. For example,

entrepreneurs differ in their aspirations to introduce new products, new productionprocesses, to engage with foreign markets, to develop a significant organization,and to fund growth with external capital. These aspirations, if they are realized,can significantly affect the economic impact of these entrepreneurial activities.

- Product and process innovation, internationalization, and ambition for high growth

are regarded as hallmarks of ambitious or high-aspiration entrepreneurship.

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Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions The GEM model maintains that, at the national level, different

framework conditions apply to established business activity and to newbusiness activity.

The relevant national conditions for factor-driven economic activity andefficiency-driven economic activity are adopted from the GlobalCompetitiveness Report (GCR).

With respect to innovation-driven economic activity, the GEM modelcontributes to the GCR perspective on economic development byidentifying framework conditions that are specific to innovation andentrepreneurship.

- it is the entrepreneurial mechanism that turns innovation into economicoutput. A lack of entrepreneurship can therefore be seen as a bottleneckfor innovation-driven countries in achieving their growth ambitions.

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Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI) combining three sub-indicatorsdealing with entrepreneurial

attitudes, activity and aspiration results in an overall indexfor entrepreneurship

For national and regional policy makers it is possible totrack which components score relatively poorly, and whichcomponents appear relatively healthy. To this end, a policytool has been developed which provides an at a glance

picture of the state of entrepreneurship in a country or region

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Entrepreneurial attitudes and perceptions

As people see more and more successful entrepreneurs in their area or in the media, this may enhance

their perception of their own capabilities without enhancing actual capabilities. This effect maybe stronger when the economic climateis favorable. Furthermore, there may be demographicdifferences in (perceived) entrepreneurial capabilities for historical socio-economic or culturalreasons.

Policy programs may explicitly target groups exhibiting low shares of perceived capabilities as wellas low shares of actual capabilities. Thus, several distinct national conditions may affectperceived capabilitiesdirectlyand indirectly.

If an individual exhibits positive perceptions toward entrepreneurship, it is by no means certain that

he or she will actually get involved in entrepreneurial activity. There are several assessments tobe made, which may or may not be conscious. First, there is the assessment of opportunitycosts, which involves comparing the expected returns of entrepreneurship to the expected returnsof an alternative occupationx. The most common alternative is being employed. Beingemployed may be a more attractive option to many, especially in countries where employmentopportunities are sparse and entrepreneurial activities are generally not very rewarding.

Then, there is a risk-reward assessment: Even if the expected returns from entrepreneurship areconsiderably higher than the best alternative, the (perceived) risks involved may be too high for a

person who is thinking about starting a business. An individualsrisk-avoidance preference maybe a significant factor in the transition from potential (or latent) entrepreneurship toentrepreneurial activity. At the same time, the individual may also be influenced by demographiccharacteristics such as age, gender, origin, or ethnicity and also by institutions. For instance,bankruptcy legislation may impact individuals attitudes. Older people might include theirhealth and the specifics of the health care system in the risk-reward assessment, whileimmigrants might perceive fewer alternative options for earning a living.

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Fear of failure Would Prevent you from Starting a business:Prevalence rates for those who Perceive new business opportunities andTotal Working age Population, GEM 2009

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3 indicators measuring national attitudes toentrepreneurship

The first one assesses the percentage of inhabitants who feel that in their country,starting a new business is considered a desirable career choice. As economies develop,more employment opportunities open up.

The second indicator describes how the inhabitants feel about entrepreneurs that aresuccessful:Do they receive a high status or are they generally not seen as role models withinthe society?On average, most people (close to three-quarters of working age adults) feel that

successful entrepreneurs have high status. Even though overall there is a mildly positivecorrelation between these two measures, they do not always match. In some countries,perception of new business creation as a good career choice is accompanied with low statusfor successful entrepreneurs. This is the case for Croatia and the Kingdom of Tonga. Finlanddisplays the reverse results: Here successful entrepreneurs receive high status but a minorityof people would agree that starting a new business is seen as a good career choice.

The third indicator relates to the popularity of entrepreneurshipand asks for respondentsopinions on the media coverage for new businesses in the country. In some countries,

deliberate media campaigns are underway to promote entrepreneurship, while in others, thereappears to be little media activity. Among innovation-driven countries, Belgium andDenmark scored low here in 2009, while Finland, Norway and the United Arab Emiratesscored high.

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Entrepreneurial activity

One of the principal measures is of early stage entrepreneurial activity, orTEA - the proportion ofpeople aged 18-64 who are involved in entrepreneurial activity as a nascent entrepreneur or as anowner-manager of a new business.

The average pattern for the three country groups is of a decline in overall levels of early-stage entrepreneurialactivity with increasing economic development, and relatively low levels of necessity entrepreneurship ininnovation-driven countries. However, there are large variations in entrepreneurial activity within thegroups, since each country has a unique set of economic and social conditions which can affectentrepreneurial activity.

Among efficiency-driven economies, Latin American countries have early-stage entrepreneurial activity rates

that are noticeably higher than countries from Eastern Europe. The ratio of TEA to established businessowners also decreases with increasing economic development. This reflects the reduction in the rate of newbusiness owners to discontinuances, which is particularly noticeable in innovation-driven economies.

Each respondent who had discontinued a business in the previous 12 months was asked to give the main reasonfor doing so.

Financial problemswere cited as the reason for quitting the business by no more than 55% of all respondents;they were cited more often by respondents in the factor and efficiency-driven economies (50% and 60%,respectively) than innovation-driven countries (about 40%).

The business itself not being profitablewas the most reported financial problem.

Problems with raising financewere considerably lower in innovation driven countries where the EntrepreneurialFramework Condition EntrepreneurialFinance is generally more developed. The opportunity to selland in particular retirement, were mentioned more often in innovation-driven countries as the mostimportant reason to discontinue the business. Personal reasons caused around 20 to 30% of alldiscontinuations.

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Expressed reasons behind discontinuing businesses, byCountry Group, GEM 2009

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Entrepreneurial activity in the 54 GEM Countries in 2009

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Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity (TEA) for 54 nations in 2011,by Phase of Economic development, Showing 95 % Confidence

intervals

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NECESSITY- AND OPPORTUNITYDRIVENMOTIVES

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Growth Expectations in 53 Economies,7Organized by Phase of Economic Development,2009

2011

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Percentage of Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurs (TEA)With Innovative Products in 54 Economies, 2011

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Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity rates and perCapita GDP, 2009

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Early-Stage Entrepreneurial activity rates and perCapita GDP, 2009

In countries with low levels of per Capita income the national economy is characterized by theprevalence of many very small businesses. As per capita income increases, industrialization andeconomies of scale allow larger and established firms to satisfy the increasing demand of growingmarkets and to increase their relative role in the economy. An important factor for achievinggrowth is the presence of macro economic and political stability, which is reflected by thedevelopment of strong institutions, from commonly accepted norms of behavior to transparent and

respected legal and regulatory systems. The increase in the role of large firms may beaccompanied by a reduction in the number of new businesses, as a growing number of people findstable employment in large industrial plants. Thus, for countries with low levels of per capitaincome, a decrease in prevalence rates of early stage entrepreneurial activity may be a good signof sustainability, especially if this is accompanied by economic growth and political stability.Toward the right-hand side of the figure, the role played by the entrepreneurial sector mayincrease because more individuals can access the resources necessary to start their own businessin knowledge-intensiveenvironments with abundant opportunities.

!!! entrepreneurship rates are not just a function of differences in economic development (orwelfare) but also other factors.

Examples of such factors might include population growth, which can stimulate demand, and the stockof existing business owner managers, who serve as role models and who are more likely to start abusiness than other individuals. Eastern European countries, with falling populations and a lowstock of business owner-managers as a legacy of communism, are clustered below the trend line,while Latin American countries, with healthy population growth rates and a larger stock ofbusiness owners, tend to appear above the trend line.

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GEM 2011 Romania

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GEM 2011 Romania

12-13 Curs MTT Prognoza Tech 2604122010 Actualizat

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