Resursele Energetice Mondiale Si Geopolitica

8/3/2019 Resursele Energetice Mondiale Si Geopolitica

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1.Resursele energetice mondiale i geopolitica.

A scruta viitorul nseamn a cuta rspuns la nite ntrebri actuale nc de pe

acum.Extinderea la scar global a revoluiei industriale n a doua jumtate a secoluluiXIX a impus i acutizarea cursei narmarilor,declaat din necesitatea asigurrii

resurselor energetice care s susin noul tip de industrie.Astfel att primul ct i cu att

mai mult cel de al doilea rzboi mondial s-au distins prin cursa pentru asigurarea

resurselor energetice,de aici rezultnd i importante rsturnri geopolitice .

Pe msur ce rzboiul rece devenea o eviden , s-a impus n contextul controlrii

sub pretext ideologice ,necesitatea ca Marile Puteri ale momentului s-i asigure nu doar

controlul asupra unor zone n care se afl state deintore de resurse petroliere importante

darr mai ales rutele de transport necesare trasportului acestuia.Tot acum se nregistreaz

mai multe ocuri petroliere generate n principal de crizele politice ale Orientului

Mijlociu.

Impunerea SUA ca singura hiperputere la finalul Rzboiului Rece nu i-a adus i

automat ,sigurana n domeniul controlrii resurselor energetice, cel de al doilea Rzboi

din Golf al crui motiv primordial l-a constituit deinerea de ctre SUA a resurselor

petroliere irakiene , evidentiind din plin acest lucru. Rusia deintoare a unui important

potenial energetic i-a permis s-i relanseze politica extern, impunndu-i punctul devedere cu prilejul unor reuniuni internationale de amploare cum a fost de pild recentul

ncheiat Summit NATO de la Bucureti.

Referindu-ne la epoca contemporan,vom analiza att situaia actul a resurselor

energetice n lume la nivelul marilor exportatori, al marilor consumatori ct i

principalele evoluii preconizate a se derula n viitorul nu prea indeprtat.Nu va fi trecut

cu vederea nici rolul Romniei n tot acest proces.

Importana petrolului ca principala resurs energetic nu este dat doar de

utilizarea sa pe scar larg ci i de faptul c este cel mai comercializat produs la nivel

mondial cptnd i o importan strategic1.Fr doar i poate c un asemenea statut

influenez ntr-o masur semnificati i deciziile liderilor lumii,politicul trebuind s

1Enciclopedie de istorie Universal,.De Agostini,Editura All Educaional,Bucureti,2003,p.1015.

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aib o grij deosebit vis-a vis de influena benefic sau malefic a efectelor economice.2

Crize economico-energetice au mai existat i vor mai exista, contracararea

acestor impunnd ntr-un fel agenda economic i politic a lumii3Situaia acesta se

repercuteaz nu doar asupra preului petrolului dar i asupra preului celorlalte produse

economice ,lovind n plin cele mai srace ri ale lumii,motiv pentru care liderii a 7 state

africane au propus G8 la reuniunea din iulie 2008 din Japonia s dubleze ajutorul acordat

anual Africii n raport cu nivelul din 2004, de 25 de miliarde $.4

Creterea dramatic a preului petrolului din ultimii ani, n special dup 2003 a

avut importante influene n plan geopolitic. Rusia a ieit din marasmul economic i i-a

relansat propria politic extern utiliznd veniturile suplimentare obinute din petrol i

gaze. China crete economic i ptrunde n Africa n for. Proiectele de punere n

exploatare a zcmintelor de hidrocarburi din Marea Chinei de S vor adnci, poate ,disputele cu Taiwanul sau Japonia5, legtura dintre geopolitica regiunii i activitile

economice fiind indisolubil, mai ales pentru nite state care nu depind de resurse

energetice proprii.

Relaia dintre iportatori i exporatatori se circumscrie raporturilor dintre diferitele

arii geopolitice i economice,n acast ecuaie intrnd nu doar statele lumii ci i marile

companii internaionale sau organizatii ce reunesc aceste state. Totui vorbind despre

state , unele dintre acesta i articuleaz politica extern pe relatia cu utilizatorii.Dominaia de necontestat din anii 20-60 a marilor companii

internationale( cele ,,apte surori ) :Texaco, Gulf, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Soconi

Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Co. of California-companii americane; British Petroleum-Marea

Britanie i Royal Dutch Shell- companie anglo-olandez-este ntrerupt de constituirea

O.P.E.C. n 1960. Ca o consecin , statele arabe au nceput s impun rilor occidentale

care concesionaser extracia iteiului creteri considerabile de preuri i limitri precise6.

2 Acad.Mircea Malia,Kissingern Cadran Politic,An VI,Nr.54,martie 2008, p.67.3 Vlatko Mileta,Les exportateurs de petrolen Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apud EugenPreda,Miza petrolului n vltoarea rzboiului,Ed.Militar,Bucureti ,1983.4 Elena Stnescu,Liderii lumii vorbesc despre petrol i hran, n Adevrul,Mari ,8 iulie 2008,p.48.5 Drago Tbran,Petrolul :semnele crizei? ,p.29 n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008.6Enciclopedie de istorie Universalp.1015.

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Energiile marine nu prezint prea mare interes, uzinele mareomotrice din anii 60

din Frana i Rusia fiind nc n faz experimental.Energiile ,,fosile- acele resurse ce

nu se mai renoiesc : huila i hidrocarburile sunt intens cutate deci epuizabile, cu toate

c aceast cretere a valorii lor face previzibil prospectarea acestora nu doar la nivelul

platformei continentale ci i n profunzime dar tot spre platforma continental7, toate

aceste necesitnd cheltuieli substantiale, exploatarea lor fiind uneori nerentabil. Pentru

Europa occidental ,a perioadei Rzboiului Rece, organizat economic n C.E.C.O.

(Comunitatea European a Crbunelui i Oelului) ,crbunele devenea mai puin

important n competii mondial pentru energie dect petrolul,gazele naturale i energia

atomic.8

Ca urmare a crizelor energetice din anii 70 i mai ales de la ncputul anilor 80

(1973,1978-1981),incluznd rzboiul de Yom Kippur i revoluia iranian,preul bariluluide petrol va crete de la 13$ pn la 35$,determinnd o reorientare spre sursle alternative

de energie :crbune,centrale energetice nucleare i gaze naturale. Totusi un lucru era

clar,petrolul devenea un instrument de presiune politic, eventualele lui creteri de pre

producnd dezechilibre important n balana de pli a rilor importatoare,majoritata

state susintoare ale Israelului. 9

Msurile guvernamentale adoptate atunci au vizat fie creterea cheltuielilor de

achiziie a petrolului ,fie reducerea importurilor petroliere i a activitilor industrialedependente. Pe fondul regresului economic nregistrat de CEE , regres manifestat prin

conflicte vamale, instabilitate monetar i creterea ratei omajului, Frana refuz s

accepte o ntelegere nchiat ntre partenrii europeni i Statele Unite pentru mprirea

petrolului n cazul unei crize cum a fost cea din 1973 cnd sporind preul petrolului l

facuse greu de obtinut.10

Statele Unite au nvtat o lecie demn de inut minte n viitor ; este mai bine

cnd deinnd monopolul exploatrri resurselor petroliere in ct mai multe locuri , vei

fixa tu pretul , iar n eventuallitatea mpuinrii resurselor controlate de tine ei mai

dispune totui de un capital financiar ce va fi inestit n surse alternative de energie.

Agenia International de Energie apreciaz c numai cu unele investitii substaniale n7Resursele oceanului mondial ameninate n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19.8 Peter Calvocoressi, Europa de la Bismark la Gorbaciov,Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2003, p.178.9Enciclopedie de istorie Universal, p.1015.10 Peter Calvocoressi,op.cit.

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noile capacitai resursele totale de energie vor suficiente pentru a acoperii cererea

global.11

Totui n cursul anilor 80 Europa avea s rsufle uurat datorit scderii preului

la produsele petroliere provenite din Marea Nordului,unde s-au hotrt s investeasc mai

muli oameni de afaceri britanici, dei acest reducere a impozitelor asupra produselor

petroliere nu aducea beneficii pe termen lung.12 Astfel,neaderarea Norvegiei la C.E.E. ,

s-a petrecut datorit convingerii c resursle petroliere sunt nerelevante n ansamblu, o

reprofilare pe scar larg a economiei naionale nspre acest sector ar distruge, n opinia

norvegienilor economia micului pescar13 .

Orientul Mijlociu zona de importan geostrategica deosebit pentru orice mare

putere, dublata valoric i de importantele sale resurse petrolifere, a fost privit,imediat

dup primul rzboi mondial de ctre europeni n primul rnd drept centru de profit.Acestia erau prezeni n regiune nca dinaintea primei conflagraii ,ins francezii i

englezii au venit n calitate de puteri coloniale n fostle teritorii otomane :Siria, Irak,

Palestina i Transiordania,n calitate de teritorii sub mandat. Sigur britanicii si-au luat cea

mai mare parte din aceste teritorii, bogate n resuse energetice. Pentru Churchil,pe atunci

lord amiral aceast regiune cuprindea o arie mai vast ,el fiind membru in guvernul ce

iniiase prima campanie britanic ce s-a ocupat de exploatarea petrolului iranian-un pas la

fel de important ca i cea prin care n perioda n care s-au inlocuit vapoarele cu aburi cucele cu combustibil petrolier , el nscriindu-se n lista primilor iniiai n politica

petrolului.14

O dat cu sfritul celui de al doilea rzboi mondial, britanicii la rndul lor vor

pierde preponderena economic n regiune dup ce veniser pe urmele germanilor

prezeni nc de la sfritul secolului XIX ntr-o regiune aflat n centrul preocuprilor

pangermanismului ncadrnd un spaiu geopolitic vast, petru expansiunea economic

german-Axa Berlin-Bagdad.15 Dei Statele Unite invadaser spaiile economice

rezerate de britanici, precum i cmpurile petroliere iraniene, CEE a cutat n anii 60 s-

11Lumea n 2020.O schi a viitorului global prezentat de consiliul Naional de Informatii a SUA,Ed.Cartier,bucuresti,p.79.12Peter Calvocoressi op. cit.,pp,169-171.13ibidem, p.180.14 Peter Calvocoressi, Rupei rndurile! Al doilea rzboi mondial i configurarea Europei postbelice,Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2001 ,p.83.15 Paul Dobrescu, Geopolitica, Editura comunicare.ro,Bucureti 2003, p.81.

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i sincronizeze politicile externe n relaia cu Orientul Mijlociu, al crui petrol era extrem

de important pentru toi . Aceast regiune care a combinat vreme de secole ispitele

datorate misterului cu tentaiile bogtiei, exigenele contemporane erau accentuate de

importana crucial a petrolului ntr-o perioad situat n epoca crbunelui i cea a

energiei nucleare16, cea din urm utilizat ns pe scar mai redus, mai puin rentabil i

oricum mai costisitoare.

Prezena tot mai profund a Statelor Unite n regiune, precum i cele dou

rzboaie cu Irakul , au impus una din prioritile geostrategice ale americanilor n

Orientul Mijlociu- asigurarea securitii transportului petrolului.17n acest sens,

necesitatea declanrii ostilitilor n timpul Primului Rzboiului din Golf , era dictat

de protejarea statelor aliate SUA i detintoare de mari resurse petroliere,Emiratele

Arabe Unite, i Arabia Saudit18, nemaipomenind de Kuweit direct afectat de interveniairakian din anii 90.

Departe de a fi pacificat pe deplin, ba din contr, n aceast zon ncadrat ntre

state-pivot19, mai exist state,precum Iranul dornice de a deine hegemonia politico-

militar i economic a Orientului de Mijloc.Dei se arat sfidtor la adresa Occidentului

in spcial la adresa Statelor Unite, provocnd ngrijorare prin repetatele sale manevre

militare si iritnd puternic Israelul prin declaraiile sale ameninttoare20,rmne un actor

imortant n regiune att din punct de vedere al stabilitii ct i n ceea ce privete rolulsu de principal furnizor petrolier pentru statele Uniunii Europene.

Dei exploatarea resurselor petroliere iraniene impune un cost intern crescut, i

este fcut cu o tehnologie nvechit, Iranul deine totui locul trei din punct de vedere al

rezervelor petroliere21.Acest stat dovedete deasemenea o extre m de abil folosire a

petrolului ca arm n politica sa internaional,n contextul n care Statele Unite vor s

mpiedice cu orice pre eforturile Iranului de a produce arme nucleare ,sprijinind n acest

sens negocierile Marii Britanii,Frantei i Germaniei cu guvernul iranian pentru ca acesta

s renune la programul de mbogire a uraniului n scopuri militare,n schimbul

16 Peter Calvocoressi, Europa...,p. 182.17SUA i dilemele de securitate ale Orientului Mijlociun Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie2008,p.26.18 Zbigniew Brzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. in Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27.19 Paul Dobrescu, op.cit. p.34220 Viorica Marin,Iranul sfideaz Occidentul, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie 2008, p.9.21 Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.

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stimulentelor comerciale europene . n septembrie 2004,Ahmedinajad ,preedintele

Iranului susinea n mod categoric de la tribuna O.N.U. , dreptul acestui stat de folosire

panic a energiei nucleare. Dac Consiliul de Securitate s-ar pronuna pentru sanciuni

atunci potrivit presei occidentale Iranul ar refuza livrrile de petrol ctre acestea ,

provocnd grave derapaje economice i o cretere alarmant a petrolului pe piaa

european.22

n peinsajul energetic al planetei energia nuclear joac un rol modest,iar

problemele ridicate de problema deeurilor nu ntrevd o cretere a importanei acestui

tip de energie. n viitor unele state chiar vor abandona aceast surs de energie datorit

riscurilor i cheltuielilor ridicate la care se expun.23

Dei din puncct de vedere al politicii externe statul iranian se afl n relaii

dificile cu Occidentul,totui acesta caut susinerea ct mai multor state ale lumii .Astfeli largete cercul relaiilor internationale cu state din Africa si din America de sud, n

slujba ntreinerii acestora punnd desigur resursele sale petroliere. Intresul Iranului n

Africa este dictat de gsirea a ct mai multor adepi pentru susinerea programului su

nuclear .n Senegal preedintele acestei tri a anunat n urma intrevederii cu liderul

iranian c acest stst asiatic urmaz s construiasc o rafinrie , un combinat chimic i o

unitate de asamblare de maini n valore de 80 de milione de $. Statul Zimbabwe al

preedintelui Mugabe izolat de comunitatea international datorit regimului d dictatur,este ajutat in schimb de Teheran prin contribuia la resuscitarea rafinriei din Zimbabwe

i a politicii sale agricole, n trecut nfloritoare. Deasemenea ntreine relatii cu Africa de

sud i Uganda folosind tot aceast politic a petrolului.24

n Venezuela n timp ce Chavez trecea la nationalizara companiilor petroliere

occidentale firma petrolier PDVSA anuna lansarea unui proiect comun iraniano-

venezuelean n domeniul produciei de petrol n valoare de 4 miliarde de $.

22 Silviu Brucan,Secolul XXI.Viitorul Uniunii Europene.Rzboaiele secolului XXI, Editura Polirom,Iai,2005,p.139.23Energia nuclear ntre scop civil i militar, n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21.24 Virginia Mircea,Ambiia de putere global a Iranului, n Cadran Politic,Anul V,Nr.55,aprilie 2008,

p.22.

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Astfel Iranul urmrete o strategie de tip Soft power25.Statele Unite , i-au pierdut

influena n acest stat o dat cu nationalizarea industriei petroliere, care constituiau pn

n acel moment sursa principal de pe continntul sud american.26

Venezuela , alturi de Nigeria i Mexic, ri exportatoare de petrol au fost grav

afectate n anii 80 cnd bncile occidentale au reuit s absoarb surplusul de petrol de

la majoritatea trilor OPEC i cu ajutorul schimbului neechivalent faorabil exportului de

echipamnt industrial i al ratei bancare nalte fixate de SUA , s transforme aceste ri n

debitori cu datorii nfiortoare.27 Situaia geopolitic a acestui stat sud-american era

destul de dificil, nainte de naionalizare i pe plan politic intern , scderea veniturilor

rezultate din petrol ducnd la lansarea n planuri de exploatare a resurselor petroliere din

Marea Caraibilor, abandonate ulterior datorit situaiei geopolitice dificile i pe plan

extern , cu Columbia28 . Ce-i drept tensiunile la grania cu Columbia continu i astzi,grupurile de insurgeni columbienii provocnd dispute la grania dintre cele dou state.29

Acest nou val al naionalismului petrolier a ajuns si n Ecuador,unde Occidental

Petroleum a fost expropriat, precum i n Peru n Bolivia, unde naionalizarea

resurselor de gaz a fost adoptat fr dificulti, de ctre companiile strine , dintre care

cea mai important era cea Brazilian Pertobras.30

Alte state asiatice,precum China i India datorit lipsei de resurse energetice vor

trebui s asigure accesul continuu furnizorilor externi.Aceast necesitate constituie unfactor major n modelarea politicilor externe, a acestor state a politiciilor de aprare i n

sensul creterii puterii navale. Deasemenea , pentru a menine a rat stabil a creterii

puterii lor economice se preconizeaz c acestea trebuie s-i sporeasc consumul

energetic cu 150% pentru China i cu dublul consumului actual pentru India, staT care

nregistrez un ritm mai accelerat al cresterii economice dect China. 31Acest lucru a

25ibidem.26 Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.27 Silviu Brucan, op. cit. ,p. 135.28 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual,Dicionar de geopolitic, Grupul editorial Corint,Bucureti,2003,

p.260-261.29 Arina Avram,Insurgenii FARC vor s-i ia revana n Adevrul,Luni 7 iulie 2008,p.16.30 Jean-Pierre Sereni,Revenirea n for a statelor pe piaa petrolier, n Le Monde Diplomatique, ediiaromn, ,Martie , 2007, An II-Nr. 12, p.19.31 Yasheng Huang, Urmtorul miracol asiatic , n Foreign Policy, Iulie/August, 2008, p. 49.

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afectat fr doar i poate cererea mondial de energie i a avut un impact substantial

asupra relaiilor geopolitice,cu alte state ale lumii32.

Influena geoeconomic i politic a Chinei se face simit i mai mult n cadrul

Organizaiei Mondiale de la Shanghai-SCO (din care mai face parte Rusia, China,

Kazahstan, Krghistan,Tadjikistan i Uzbekistan ;India, Pakistan , Iran i Mongolia avnd

statut att de observatori ct i de viitori membrii) care se constituie ntr-o alternativ la

extinderea U.E. i N.A.T.O., contracarnd intresele americane din Asia33, prin aplicarea

unei politici de ngradire. Ptrundera Chinei n Asia central este justificat de cererea sa

mare de energie, intergrarea regional fiind o soluie i pentru statele din regiune cu rol

de tampon ntre Rusia i China 34, descentrarea acestora putndu-se face doar astfel. n

luna august a anului 2005 o important companie chinez a achiziionat Petro-Kazahstan

contra sumei de 4,2 miliarde de $. Acast prezena tot mai accentuat a Chinei pe planeconomic mondial a contribuit la mrirea potenialului global de cretere economic, la

inerea sub control a inflatiei i la declansarea de schimbri pozitie n domeniul muncii ,

al bunurilor i actiunilor.35

Pentru a-i face recunoscut i simit acest statut de mare putere economic China

i-a extins aria de interes mai departe de continentul asiatic, ptrunznd pe piata

petrolier i de pe alte continente ca Africa sau America de sud. Datorit acestei prezene

chineze pe continentul negru rile exportatoare au de profitat. Astfel datorit ChineiSudanul poate s exporte petrol iar economia sudanez dei afectat de rzboiul civil

progreseaz mbucurtor. Deasemenea din acesta motiv China este interesat s susin

conflictul civil sudanez meninnd un risc politic ridicat astfel nct companii precum

Chevron, Total sau Shell plecate n anii 80 s nu se mai ntoarc dei dorete a convinge

regimul c ar fi mai bine s nceteze ostilitile pentru a nu si pta reputaia de putere

panic36.

Mai bogat n resurse pe coasta vestic, continentul african, ntmpin totui

dificulti n exportarea propriilor resurse , datorit problemelor politice i sociale

32Lumea n 2020, p.79-80.33 Vasile Simileanu, Geopolitica resurselor energetice, n GeoPolitica,Anul V-Nr.23,Editura TOPFORM .Asociatia de geopolitic ,,ION CONEA,Bucureti, p.7.34 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual,op. cit. , p.19535 Silviu Brucan, op. cit. p.136.36 Serge Michel,Cnd China ntlneste Africa, n Foreign Policy, Iunie/Iulie 2008 ,p.70.

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specifice acestui continent. Aceast situaie mpiedic accesul marilor companii petroliere

la resursele energetice care se presupune c ofer n aceast zon un volum din ce n ce

mai mare37Acutizarea unor astfel de dificultti aduce un stat cum este Nigeria n pragul

unei crize petroliere,datorit atacurilor insurgentilor islamiti asupra instalatiilor

petroliere din delta Nigerului38,dei n anii 90 resursele petroliere ale acestui stat l

faceau o important putere n V Africii posednd o industrie foarte agresiv i foarte

dinamic.39 Deasemenea potrivit OPEC Nigeria i-a pierdut acest statut de cel mai mare

productor petrolier al Africii n momentul in care a fost devansat de Angola 40.

Dependena energetic a Europei de Federaia Rus , aduce totui n discuie i

unele proiecte alternative care dac nu pot elimina definitiv aceast dependent ncearc

mcar s o reduc. Un astfel de proiect intitulat Priectul NABUCO este n faza de proiect

i are n edere constituirea unei rute alternatie car sa ocoleasc Rusia pe direciaAzerbaidjan-Georgia Turcia Marea Neagr-bulgaria-Romnia Ungaria-Austria. In

acest fel se doedeste cum politica extern a unui stat depinde de importana geopolic a

acestuia , incluznd i elaborarea unei strategii economice aferente (geoeconomie).41

Influena energetic rus se simte puternic i n centrul Europei,cooperarea

Gazprom-OMVstrnind numerose temeri n Uniunea att datorit dorinei celor dou

companii de a mpiedica proiectul sus mentionat42, ct i dorintei companiei austriece de

a prelua compania maghiar MOL.

43

Acest fapt era cosiderat de oficialii Uniunii drept un potenial precedent periculos datorit eventualului monopol pe care l-ar exercita

compania austriac n colaborare cu Gazprom n Centrul Europei,acest ajungndu-se n

cele din urm la abandonarea ofertei OMV pt.MOL44

Cu toate acestea, astzi cea mai importnt arm a Rusiei este potentialul su

economic ( o crestere economic de 8% la nivelul anului 2007 i rezerve valutare n

valoare de 506 miliarde$).Dei resursele energetice nu sunt totul rusia reprezint totusi

37Lumea n 2020, p.79.38 Drago Tbran , op. cit, p.29.39 Michael Maren, Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26.40 AFP,Nigerian presidential panel calls for reform of state oil firm.41 Laureniu Constantiniu,Proiectul Nabuco i necunoscutle sale , n Cadran Politic, V,Nr.55,apr.2008,p.12.42 Vladimir Socor, OMV se asociaza cu Gazprom pentru a submina proiectiul NABUCO, n PulsulGeostrategic,Nr.22/5 Februarie 2008, p.4.43 Elena Stnescu,UE critic preluarea Mol de ctre OMV, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie , 2008, p48.44OMV renun la oferta pentru MOL, pe www.pulsulzilei.ro tirea1174403,o7.o8.2008.

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cel mai mare exportator de gaze naturale i se preconizeaz c va devenii a Va putere

economic mondial n jurul anului 2020.45Rusia prezint deasemenea o serie de proiecte

alternative la NABUCO intitulate South Stream i Blue Stream(proiect Gazprom n

colaborare cu compania italian ENI la care dorete s se afilieze Serbia i Ungaria), la

acste adaugndu-se i priectul White Stream de concepie ucrainian, care complic

oarecum lucrurile avnd n edere climatul politic instabil din regiune.46Depinde numai de

liderii statelor din regiune , printre care si romnia optiunea pentru una ariantle de

transport oferite.

Deasemenea ,Compania rus Gazprtom -i lrgete cmpul de afaceri i n alte

direcii precum Orientul Mijlociu sau Marea Neagr-Insula erpilor,ntr-o zon

considerat strategic i din alte puncte de vedere, fiind esenial pentru o delimitare

platoului continental dintre Romnia i Ucraina. De altfel n Marea Neagr, Turcia estecel mai important pivot american la grania masei continentale si culturale rusesti.Ct

priveste Ucraina aceasta este o pies important n puzzel-ul occidental al traselor

energetice, reglnd fluxul petrolier dintre Caspica i Orintul Mijlociu spre Europa.47

n condiiile preconizatei impuinri a actualelor resurse energetice(resursele

petroliere din Marea Nordului au trecut deja de pragul maxim,urmnad actualmnte o

curb descendent), statele lumii riverane la Oceanul Arctic se arat tot mai interesate de

exploatarea resurslor existente n zon , n condiiile topirii tot mai acentuate a caloteiglaciare . Un avans semnificativ n aceast curs de revendicare a unui teritoriu ct mai

mare l-a luat tot Rusia, care n luna august a anului 2007 a plasat pe fundul Ocenului

Arctic, la Polul Nord un steag al Federatiei Ruse din titan inoxidabil.

Conform USGeological Survey 25% din rezerele mondiale de hidrocarburi ar exista la

Polul Nord 48.Aceast topire accelerat a calotei polare duce i la conturarea unei noi

geopolitici ntruct state desprtite de distante de mii de kilometrii aici sunt vecine 49, iar

45 Alexandra Diaconescu,Noile tancuri ale Rusiein Foreign Policy,iunie/iulie, 2008, p.33.46 Laureniu Constantini,op.cit.47Costin Ionescu,Marea Neagr un pivot geopolitic n disput? n Geopolitica,Nr.1(5),anIV, p.44.48 Dominique Kapp,nceput de rzboi rece pe banchiz, nLe Monde diplomatique, editia romn,septembrie 2007, An,II. Nr.18.49 Stan Petrescu,Goana dup resursele energtice.inta fierbinte Polul Nord, n GeoPolitica,An V,

Nr.23,p.46.

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altele precum China ,Japonia sau Coreea de Sud dei nu sunt nconjurate de banchize se

arat interesate de ptrunderea n regiune50.

Pe de alta parte chestiuni precum cresterea demografica si inclzirea global vor

da startul unei lupte acerbe pentru asigurarea resurselor vitale :apa, suprafeele de uscat

si sursele de energie.51In acest sens, la Washington s-a desfaurat la nceputul lunii august

2008 Joint Economic Committee( ?)sub egida Energia=combinatia dintre eficin i

conservare,n cadrul cruia fostul presedinte american Jimmy Carter vorbind despre criza

energetic din 1977 a afirmat :,,Cu excepia prevenirii rzboiului , acasta este cea mai

mare provocare creia rile noastre vor trebui s-i fac fa , iar preedintele Joint

Economic Committee-Sen Chuck Schumer a precizat :,,Unul dintre lucrurile bune care au

rezultat dup ocul petrolului din anii 70 a fost ndemnul dramatic spre conservare

energiei52.n viitorul nu prea ndeprtat att marii exportatori de petrol ct i marii

importatori vor trebui s se gndeasc la un consum mai raional , ntruct o utilizare

nechibzuit ar duce la efcte dezastruase att asupra mediului nconjurtor ct i asupra

climatului politic mondial cu repercursiuni grave asupra relaiilor dintre statele lumii, fie

ele mari sau mici.

50 Dominique Kapp,op.cit51 Paul Hirst,Rzboi i putere n secolul 21,Editura Antet,,Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87.52 Bob Herhert,The Winning Hand in the Energy game,n Der Spiegel,August.05.1008-www.spiegel.de/international

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1. The energetic resources and the geopolitics

To scan into the future means to search for answers to some contemporary

questions starting from now. The global expansion of the industrial revolution in the

second half of the 19th century imposed also the ingravescence of the arming race

launched from de necessity to assure the energetic resources sustaining the new type of

industry. In this way the First World War as well as the Second World War were

distinguished by the race to assure the energetic resources, process that led to important

geopolitics overturns.

While the Cold War became obvious, in the context of control and under

ideological cover, the necessity that the moments Great Powers assure not only the

control over some areas in which there are countries that have important oil resources but

also the transport routes necessary for the transportation of the oil was imposed. And

also, more and more oil shocks generated mainly by the political crisis of the Middle

Orient are registered too.

Imposing USA as the only superpower at the end of the Cold War didnt bring her

automatically the certitude in the domain of control over the energetic resources, the

Second World War which had as primary cause the possession of the Iraqi oil resources

by USA, emphasize this fact. Russia, possessor of a great energetic potential alloweditself to raise the bid of its external politics by imposing its point of view during the

international reunions of great extent such as the recent ended NATO Summit from

Bucharest.

Making reference to the contemporary era, we will analyze the present situation

of the energetic resources in the world at the level of the great exporters, of the great

consumers, as well as the main evolutions predicted to happen in the near future. It wont

be omitted the part Romania has in all this process.

The importance of the oil as main energetic resource is not given only by its large

scale use at but also by the fact that it is the most commercialized product at

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global level receiving in this way a strategic importance too53. Undoubtedly this kind of

statute influences in an important manner the decisions of the world leaders too, the

politic being obliged to take special care of the benefic or malefic influence of the

economical effects54.

The economic - energetic crisis existed forever and will still exist, counteracting

these crisis impose in a way the economic and political agenda of the world 55. This

situation has en effect not only over the price of the oil but also over the price of the other

economical products having also a strong impact over the poorest countries of the world

reason for which the leaders of 7 African states proposed G8 at the meeting had in July

2008 in Japan, that is to double the annually help offered to Africa reported to the help

given in 2004 of 25 billion $56.

The dramatically rise of the price of the oil in the past few years especially after2003 had important influences on the area of geopolitics. Russia outran from the

economical depression and raised the bid of its own foreign politics using the subsidiary

incomes obtained from oil and gas. China has an economical expansion and enters in

Africa by force. The projects that have as main purpose the use of the exploitation of the

hydrocarbon resources from the Sea of South China will increase the extent of the

problems had with Taiwan or Japan57, the connection between the geopolitics of the

region and the economical activities being indestructible especially for some states thatdo not depend on their own energetic resources.

The relation between importers and exporters is bounded to the relations between

different geopolitics and economical areas, here being also included not only the states of

the world but also the great international enterprises or organizations that reunite all these

53The Universal History Encyclopedia,De Agostini, All Educaional PrintingHouse,Bucharest,2003,p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universal,.De Agostini,Editura AllEducaional,Bucureti,2003,p.1015.)54 Acad.Mircea Malia,Kissingerin Political Quadrant, Year VI,No.54,march 2008, p.67. (Acad.Mircea

Malia,Kissingern Cadran Politic,An VI,Nr.54,martie 2008, p.67.)55 Vlatko Mileta,Les exportateurs de petrolein Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apudEugen Preda,TheOil Stake in the Vortex of the War, Militar Printing House,Bucureti ,1983. (VlatkoMileta,Les exportateurs de petrolen Revue de politique,Belgrade,No.748,1,VI,1981 apud EugenPreda,Miza petrolului n vltoarea rzboiului,Ed.Militar,Bucureti ,1983.)56 Elena Stnescu, The leaders of the world speak about oil and food, in Adevrul,Tuesday ,8 July2008,p.48. (Elena Stnescu,Liderii lumii vorbesc despre petrol i hran, n Adevrul,Mari ,8 iulie2008,p.48.)57 Drago Tbran, Oil: the signs of the crisis? p.29 in Cadran Politic,Year VI, nr.57-58, June-July 2008.(Drago Tbran,Petrolul :semnele crizei? ,p.29 n Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008.)

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states. However, speaking about states, some of them base their foreign politics on the

relation with the users.

The unquestionable supremacy of the 20s-60s of the great international

enterprises (the seven sisters) : Texaco, Gulf, Standard Oil of New Jersey, Soconi

Mobil Oil, Standard Oil Co. of California-American enterprises; British Oil-Great

Britain and Royal Dutch Shell, English-Dutch enterprise, is interrupted by the

constitution of O.P.E.C (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) in 1960. As

a consequence, the Arabic states began to impose to the occidental countries that patented

the extraction of the oil, important increases of the prices and precise restrictions 58.

The marine resources do not represent an important interest, the tide driven plants

of the 60s, from France and Russia, still being in an experimental phase. The fossil

resources - those resources that are not renewable that is: pit coal and hydrocarbon arehighly searched so exhaustible, although this growth of their value determines their

predictable prospecting not only at the level of the continental platform but also in depth

but also towards the continental platform59, all these facts requiring substantial expenses,

their exploitation being sometimes without any profit. For occidental Europe, the Europe

of the Cold War, organized economically in C.E.C.O (The European Coal and Steel

Community - ECSC), the coal began to be less important than the oil, the natural gases

and the atomic energy in the world competition for energy

60

.As a result of the energy crisis of the 70s and especially the ones from the

beginning of the 80s (1973, 1978-1981), including the Yom Kippur War and the Iranian

revolution, the price of the petroleum barrel will increase from 13$ to 35$, determining a

reorientation towards the alternative energy resources that is: coal, atomic energy stations

and natural gases. However a thing was obvious, the oil became a political pressure

instrument, its eventual price increases leading to important imbalances in the payment

balance of the importer countries, most of them sustaining Israel61.

58 The Universal History Encyclopedia p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universalp.1015.)59The Resources of the World Ocean threatenedin Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19. (Resurseleoceanului mondial ameninate n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.18-19.)60 Peter Calvocoressi, Europe from Bismark to Gorbaciov,Polirom Printing House Iasi ,2003, p.178. (PeterCalvocoressi, Europa de la Bismark la Gorbaciov,Ed.Polirom,Iasi ,2003, p.178)61The Universal History Encyclopedia p.1015. (Enciclopedie de istorie Universal, p.1015.)

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The governmental measures adopted then had as purpose the increase of the

acquisition expenses of the oil, or the reduction of the oil imports and of the dependent

industrial activities. On the basis of the economic regress registered by CEE, regress

demonstrated by customs conflicts, monetary imbalance and the growth of the

unemployment rate, France refuses to accept an agreement between Europeans and the

United States to share the oil in the case of a crisis like the one from 1973 when the

growth in the price of the oil made it difficult to obtain62.

USA learned a lesson hardly to forget; it is better detaining the monopole over the

exploitation of the oil resources in more places, one can set the price, and if the resources

controlled diminish, one would still dispose of a financial capital that would be invested

in alternative energy resources. The International Energy Agency estimates that just with

a few substantial investments in the new energetic capabilities, all the energetic resourceswill be enough to cover the global demand63.

However, during the 80s, Europe was to breathe disburdened because of the

reduction of the price of the oil products coming from the North Sea where more British

business people decided to invest even though this reduction of the taxes over the oil

products wouldnt bring long term benefits64. In this way the no adhering to C.E.E of

Norway happened because of the belief that the oil resources are irrelevant as a whole, a

readjustment on a large scale of the national economy towards this branch would destroy,in the Norwegians opinion, the economy of the small fisherman65.

The Middle Orient, the special geostrategic importance area for every great

power, with a doubled value because of the important oil resources was seen by the

Europeans, immediately after the First World War, as an interest center. They were

represented in the region even before the first conflagration but the French and the

English in quality of great colonial powers came in the former Ottoman territories that

are: Syria, Iraq, Palestine and Transjordan and considered them territories under mandate.

Surely, the majority of these regions, regions rich in energetic resources were taken by

62 Peter Calvocoressi, Quoted work. (Peter Calvocoressi,op.cit).63The World in 2020.A profile of the global future presented by the National Council of Information of theUSA. Cartier Printing House, Bucharest, p.79. (Lumea n 2020.O schi a viitorului global prezentat deconsiliul Naional de Informatii a SUA, Ed.Cartier, Bucuresti, p.79.)64 Peter Calvocoressi, Quoted work, pp,169-171. (Peter Calvocoressi, cited work, pp,169-171.)65ibidem, p.180. (ibidem, p.180.)

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the British. For Churchill, then admiral lord, this region was a more vast area, he was

member in the govern initiating the first British campaign dealing with the exploitation of

the Iranian oil, important step as the period of time when the steamships were replaced

with the ones using oil as fuel, he was also one of the first people initiated in the politics

of oil66.

At the end of the Second World War the British at their turn, will loose the

economic preponderance in the region after they came, following the Germans present

even from the end of the 19th century in a region found in the center of the concerns of

pangermanism and a region enframing a vast geopolitics space for the German expansion

of the Berlin-Baghdad Axis67. Even though the United States invaded the economic

spaces reserved by the British, as well as the Iranian oil fields, CEE tried, in the 60s, to

synchronize its foreign politics in the relation with the Middle Orient because the oil ithad was extremely important for all. In this region which combined for centuries the

temptations determined by the mystery and the temptation of richness, the contemporary

exigencies were accentuated by the crucial importance of the oil in the coal and atomic

energy68 era, the last one being used at a reduced scale less profitable and more

expensive.

The more and more serious presence of the United States in this region imposed

one of the geostrategic priorities of the Americans in Middle Orient that is to assure thesecurity of the transportation of the oil69. In this sense the necessity to begin the hostilities

during the First War of the Golf was dictated by the protection of the allied states of USA

also states having great oil resources that is United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia 70, not

mentioning Kuwait who was directly affected by the Iraqi intervention from the 90s.

Far from being fully pacified, on the contrary, in this area enframed between pivot

66 Peter Calvocoressi,Breakthe lines! The Second World War and the configuration of pos-war Europe,

Polirom Printing House, Iasi, 2001, p.83. (Peter Calvocoressi,Rupei rndurile! Al doilea rzboi mondiali configurarea Europei postbelice, , Ed.Polirom,Iasi, 2001, p.83.)67 Paul Dobrescu, Geopolitics, Comunicare.ro Printing House,Bucharest, 2003, p.81. (Paul Dobrescu,Geopolitica, Editura Comunicare.ro,Bucureti 2003, p.81.)68 Peter Calvocoressi,Europe...p.182. (Peter Calvocoressi,Europa...p.182.)69USA and the security dilemmas of the Middle Orientin Cadran Politic, Year VI, no.57-58, June-July 2008,p.26. (SUA i dilemele de securitate ale Orientului Mijlociun Cadran Politic,Anul VI, nr.57-58, iunie-iulie 2008,p.26.)70 Zbigniew Brzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. in Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27. (ZbigniewBrzezinski, Why to Fight-And why not to. n Newesweek, August,27,1990, p.27.)

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states71 there still are states like Iran willing to detain the politic-military and economical

hegemony of the Middle Orient. Even though this thing seems to be defiant towards the

Occident especially towards The United States provoking anxieties by the repeated

military maneuvers and irritating strongly Israel by its threatening messages72, it still

remains an important actor in the region from both the point of view of the stability and

from the role it has as leading oil supplier for the states of the European Union.

Even though the exploitation of the Iranian oil resources imposes a high intern

cost and it is made using an old technology, Iran is on the 3rd place from the point of

view of the oil supplies73. This state also proves that an extremely skilful use of the oil as

weapon in its international politics in the context in which the United States want to

prevent with any cost the efforts of Iran to produce atomic weapons, for this purpose

sustaining the negotiations of Great Britain, France and Germany with the Iraniangovernment that this one renounce at the enrichment program of uranium in military

purposes in exchange of the commercial European stimulants. In September 2004

Ahmedinajad, president of Iran was sustaining absolutely, from the UN tribune, the right

of this state to use peacefully the atomic energy. If the Security Council would pronounce

for sanctions then according the occidental press Iran would refuse to deliver the oil to

these countries provoking serious economical sideslips and an alarming growth of the

petroleum on the European market

74

.In the planets energetic scenery the atomic energy plays a modest role but the

problems of the waste do not predict any growth of the importance of this type of energy.

In the future some states would abandon this source of energy because of the risks and of

the prodigalities to which they are exposed75.

Even though from the point of view of the foreign politics the Iranian state has a

difficult relationship with the Occident however it searches the sustaining of more of the

worlds states. Hereby it enlarges the circle of international relations with states from

71 Paul Dobrescu, Quoted work,p.342 (Paul Dobrescu, op.cit. p.342)72 Viorica Marin,Iran Challenges the Occident, in Adevrul, Friday 11 July 2008, p.9. (Viorica Marin,Iranul sfideaz Occidentul, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie 2008, p.9.)73 Drago Tbran , Quoted work. p. 29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.)74 Silviu Brucan, XXI Century. The future of the European Union. The wars of the XXI century. ,PoliromPrinting House,Iai, 2005,p.139. (Silviu Brucan,Secolul XXI.Viitorul Uniunii Europene.Rzboaiele

secolului XXI, Editura Polirom,Iai, 2005,p.139.)75 Atomic Energy between civil and military purpose, in Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21.(Energia nuclear ntre scop civil i militar, n Atlas-Le Monde Diplomatique,pp.20-21.)

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Africa and South America offering them of course, its oil resources. The interest of Iran

in Africa is to find as many supporters as possible to sustain its atomic program. In

Senegal the president of this country announced, after a meeting had with the Iranian

leader, that this Asian state is to build a refinery, an atomic combine and a car assembling

unit of 80 million $. The Zimbabwe state, the state of the president Mugabe, isolated by

the international community because of its dictatorial form of government is helped by

Teheran contributing at the resuscitation of the refinery from Zimbabwe and at the

resuscitation of its agricultural politics, a flourishing one in the past. He also has relations

with South Africa and Uganda using the same politics, the politics of the oil76.

In Venezuela while Chavez was passing at the nationalization of the occidental oil

enterprises the oil enterprise PDVSA announced the launching of a new common project

Iranian-Venezuelan in the domain of oil production worth 4 billion $.In this way Iran follows a Soft Power77 type strategy. The United States lost its

influence in this state along with the nationalization of the oil industry which represented

until that moment the major source of the South American continent78.

Venezuela, together with Nigeria and Mexico, countries exporting oil, were

severely affected in the 80s when the occidental banks managed to occlude the oil surplus

from the majority of the OPEC countries and with the help of the non-equivalent

exchange favorable to the industrial equipment export and with the help of the highbanking rate established by USA, to transform these countries in debtors with terrible

debts79. The geopolitics situation of this South American state was difficult enough,

before the nationalization and on intranational political plan, the decrease of the incomes

issued from the oil, leading to the launching of the exploitation plans of the oil resources

from the Caribbean Sea, abandoned subsequently because of the difficult geopolitics

situation, and on foreign plan, with Colombia80. The truth is that the tensions at the76 Virginia Mircea, The ambition to global power of Iran, in Cadran Politic,YearV,No55,april2008, p.22.

(Virginia Mircea,Ambiia de putere global a Iranului, n Cadran Politic,Anul V,Nr.55,aprilie 2008,p.22.)77ibidem. (ibidem.)78 Drago Tbran , Quoted work. p. 29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit. p. 29.)79 Silviu Brucan, Quoted work. ,p. 135. ( Silviu Brucan, op. cit. ,p. 135.)80 Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual, Geopolitics dictionary, Corint Printing Group,Bucharest,2003,

p.260-261.(Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual, Dicionar de geopolitic, Grupul editorialCorint,Bucureti,2003, p.260-261.)29 Arina Avram, The FARC rebels want to take their revenge inAdevrul,Monday7 July 2008,p.16.(Arina Avram,Insurgenii FARC vor s-i ia revana n Adevrul,Luni 7 iulie 2008,p.16.)

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Colombian border still exist, the groups of rebels provoking controversies at the border of

the two states81.

This new wave of the oil nationalism reached Ecuador too, where the

nationalization of the gas resources was adopted by the foreign enterprises without any

difficulties, the most important of all being Brazilian Pertobras82.

Other Asian states like China and India because of the lack of energetic resources

will have to assure their continuous access of the foreign suppliers. This necessity is a

major agent in the adaptation of the foreign politics of these states, the defense politics

and in the sense of the growth of the naval power too. As well, to maintain a stable rate of

the growth of their economical power, its foreseen that China has to increase with 150%

its energetic consumption and India has to double its present consumption, state that

registers an accelerated rhythm of the economical growth more accelerated than Chinasrhythm83. This thing affected surely the world demand for energy and it had a substantial

impact on the geopolitics relations with other states of the world84.

The geoeconomical and political influence of China makes itself felt more, within

the World Organization from Shanghai (which has as members Russia, China,

Kazakhstan, Kirzikistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia

being observers and future members) which is constituted in an alternative at the

expansion of EU and NATO counteracting the American interests from Asia

85

, bypracticing an enclosing politic. The entrance of China in Central Asia is justified by its

30 Jean-Pierre Sereni, The return in force of the states on the oil market, in Le Monde Diplomatique,romanian edition, March , 2007, Year II-Nr. 12, p.19. (Jean-Pierre Sereni,Revenirea n for a statelor pepiaa petrolier, n Le Monde Diplomatique, ediia romn, ,Martie , 2007, An II-Nr. 12, p.19.)31 Yasheng Huang, The next Asian miracle, in Foreign Policy, July/August, 2008, p. 49. (Yasheng Huang,Urmtorul miracol asiatic , n Foreign Policy, Iulie/August, 2008, p. 49.)32 The world in 2020, p.79-80.(Lumea n 2020, p.79-80.)

81

82

83

84

85 Vasile Simileanu, The energetic resources geopolitics, in GeoPolitica,Year V-No.23,TOP FORMPrinting House.,,ION CONEA Geopolitics association, Bucharest, p.7. (Vasile Simileanu, Geopoliticaresurselor energetice, n GeoPolitica,Anul V-Nr.23,Editura TOP FORM .Asociatia de geopolitic ,,IONCONEA,Bucureti, p.7.)34 Aymeric Chaupraby,Franois Thual, Quoted work, p.195 (Aymeric Chauprade,Franois Thual,op. cit. ,

p.195)

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great energy demand, the regional integration being a solution for the states from the

region that are tampon states between Russia and China 86, their decentration being made

just in this way. In august 2005 an important Chinese enterprise bought Petro-Kazahstan

for 4, 2 billion $. This more and more accentuated presence of China on the worlds

economical plan, contributed to the growth of the potential global economic growth, to

the control of inflation and to the realizing of some positive changes in the domain of

work, of the goods and of the shares87.

To acknowledge this statute of great economical power China expanded its

interest area further the Asian continent entering the oil market of the other continents

like Africa or South America. Thanks to this Chinese presence on the black continent the

exporting countries can profit. In this way, thanks to China, Sudan can export oil and the

Sudanian economy even though affected by the Sudanian civil war has a joyful progress.From this reason too, China is interested to sustain the Sudanian civil conflict

maintaining a high political risk so that enterprises like Chevron, Total or Shell gone in

the 80s never come back even though it wishes to convince the form of government that

it would be better to put an end to the hostilities to keep its reputation of peaceful

power88.

Richer in resources on the vest coast the African continent encounters difficulties

in exporting its own resources because of the particular social and political problems ofthis continent. This situation prevents the access of the great oil enterprises to the

energetic resources that are supposed to offer in this area a bigger volume 89. The

ingravescence of this type of difficulties bring a state like Nigeria on the verge of an oil

crisis because of the attacks of the Islamic rebels over the oil units found in the Nigerian

delta90, even though the oil resources of the 90s of this state made it an important power

8635

Silviu Brucan, Quoted work. p.136. (Silviu Brucan, op. cit. p.136.)8736 Serge Michel, When China meets Africa, in Foreign Policy, June/July 2008 , p.70. (SergeMichel,Cnd China ntlneste Africa, n Foreign Policy, Iunie/Iulie 2008 ,p.70.)88

89The world in 2020, p.79.( Lumea n 2020, p.79.)90 Drago Tbran , Quoted work, p.29. (Drago Tbran , op. cit, p.29.)

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of the Vest Africa with an aggressive and very dynamic industry91. As well, according to

OPEC Nigeria lost this statute of the greatest oil producer of Africa in the moment in

which it was out passed by Angola92.

The Europes energetic dependency to the Russian Federation brings though in

discussion some alternative programs too, programs that if cannot eliminate definitively

this dependence at least try to reduce it. A program like this named NABUCO Project its

still in work and it has as purpose the establishment of an alternative route that by-passes

Russia on the Azerbaijan-Georgia Turkey Black Sea-Bulgaria-RomaniaHungary-

Austria. In this way it is marked out the fact that the foreign politics of a state depends on

its geopolitics importance including the elaboration of an afferent economical strategy

(geo-economics)93.

The Russian energetic influence is felt powerfully in the center of Europe too, thecooperation Gazprom-OMV provoking numerous fears in the Union because of the desire

of the two enterprises to discourage the above mentioned project94 but as well because of

the Austrian enterprise to take over the Hungarian enterprise MOL95. This fact was

considered by the Unions officials a potential dangerous foregoing because of the

eventual monopole that the Austrian enterprise would exert, in collaboration with

Gazprom, in the Center of the Europe this fact leading finally to the abandoning of the

OMV offer for MOL

96

.Nevertheless, nowadays, the most important weapon of Russia is its economical

potential (an economical growth of 8% in 2007 and rates stock 506 billion $ worth). Even

though the energetic resources are not everything Russia represents however the greatest

natural gases exporter and it is foreseen that itll become the 5 th world economy power

91Michael Maren, Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26. (Michael Maren,Energizing the Nation, in Newesweek, August,27,1990,p.26.)92AFP, Nigerian presidential panel calls for reform of state oil firm. (AFP, Nigerian presidential panelcalls for reform of state oil firm.)93

Laureniu Constantiniu, NABUCO Project and its obscurities, in Cadran Politic, V,No.55,apr.2008,p.12. (Laureniu Constantiniu, Proiectul Nabuco i necunoscutle sale , n Cadran Politic,V,Nr.55, apr.2008,p.12.)94 Vladimir Socor, OMV associates with Gazprom to undermine the NABUCO project, in PulsulGeostrategic,No.22/5 February 2008, p.4. (Vladimir Socor, OMV se asociaza cu Gazprom pentru asubmina proiectiul NABUCO, n Pulsul Geostrategic,Nr.22/5 Februarie 2008, p.4.)95 Elena Stnescu,EU criticizes the taking over of MOL by OMV, in Adevrul,Friday 11 July , 2008, p48.(Elena Stnescu, UE critic preluarea Mol de ctre OMV, n Adevrul,Vineri 11 iulie , 2008, p48.)96OMV renounces at the offer for MOL, on www.pulsulzilei.ro news 1174403, o7.o8.2008. (OMVrenun la oferta pentru MOL, pe www.pulsulzilei.ro tirea 1174403,o7.o8.2008.)

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around year 202097. Russia also presents a series of alternative projects to NABUCO

named South Stream and Blue Stream (Gazprom project in collaboration with the Italian

enterprise ENI to which Serbia and Hungary want to affiliate) to these projects is added

the White Stream project of Ukrainian concept which in a way complicates the things,

having in mind the fact that the political climate in the area is instable 98. The option for

one of the means of transport offered depends only on the leaders of the region including

Romania.

However, the Russian enterprise Gazprom enlarges its business field in other

directions too like the Middle Orient or the Black Sea-The Island of Snakes, in an area

considered strategic from other points of view too, being essential for a delimitation of

the continental plateau between Romania and Ukraine. Besides, in the Black Sea, Turkey

is the most important American pivot at the border of the Russian continental and culturalmass. Regarding Ukraine, it represents an important piece in the occidental puzzle of the

energetic routes adjusting the oil flux between Caspian Sea and Middle Orient towards

Europe99.

In the conditions of the planed decrease of the present energetic resources (the oil

resources from the North Sea have already passed the maximum threshold following for

the moment a descendent curve) the riverside resident states at the Arctic Ocean are more

and more interested in the exploitation of the resources found in the area in the conditionsof more and more accentuated melting of the glacial calotte. An important advance in this

pretension race for a bigger territory was also taken by Russia which in August 2007

placed at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean at North Pole, a flag of the Russian Federation

made from stainless titanium. According to USGeological Survey 25% of the world

hydrocarbon reserves are at the North Pole100. This accelerated melting of the glacial

calotte leads also to the delineation of a new geopolitics since states separated by miles

97 Alexandra Diaconescu, The new Tanks of Russia, in Foreign Policy, June/July, 2008, p.33. (AlexandraDiaconescu,Noile tancuri ale Rusiein Foreign Policy,iunie/iulie, 2008, p.33.)98 Laureniu Constantini, Quoted work .(Laureniu Constantini,op.cit.)99 Costin Ionescu, The Black Sea a geopolitics pivot in dispute? in Geopolitics,No.1(5),Year IV, p.44.(Costin Ionescu,Marea Neagr un pivot geopolitic n disput? n Geopolitica,Nr.1(5),anIV, p.44.)100 Dominique Kapp, Beginning of a cold war on the ice bank, in Le Monde diplomatique, romanianedition, September 2007, Year,II. No.18. (Dominique Kapp,nceput de rzboi rece pe banchiz, n LeMonde diplomatique, editia romn, septembrie 2007, An,II. Nr.18.)

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and miles of kilometers are now neighbors101, and other states like China, Japan and

South Korea even though are surrounded by ice banks appear to be interested in the

entrance in the area102.

On the other hand problems like the demographic growth and the global warming

will start a severe fight for the assurance of the vital resources: water, dry land and energy

sources103. For this purpose at Washington, at the beginning of August 2008, has

displayed a Joint Economic Committee under the aegis Energy=the combination between

efficiency and conservation, during which the American president Jimmy Carter speaking

about the energetic crisis form 1977 said: Excepting the war prevention, this is the

greatest challenge our countries have to deal with and the president of the Joint

Economic Committee-Sen Chuck Schumer said : One of the good things resulting after

the oil shock of the 70s was the dramatic impulse towards the conservation of theenergy104.

In the near future the great oil exporters as well as the great importers will have to

think over a more rational input because a thoughtless use would bring disastrous effects

over the environment as well as over the world political climate with serious

consequences on the relations between states, either big or small.

101

Stan Petrescu, The rush over the energetic resources. The hot goal North Pole, in GeoPolitics, YearV, No.23,p.46. (Stan Petrescu,Goana dup resursele energtice.inta fierbinte Polul Nord, nGeoPolitica,An V, Nr.23,p.46.)102 Dominique Kapp, Quoted work(Dominique Kapp, op.cit.)103 Paul Hirst, War and power in the 21 century, Antet Printing House, Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87.(Paul Hirst,Rzboi i putere n secolul 21,Editura Antet,,Filipesti de Trg, Prahova ,p.87.)104 Bob Herhert, The Winning Hand in the Energy game,in Der Spiegel,August.05.1008-www.spiegel.de/international (Bob Herhert,The Winning Hand in the Energy game,n DerSpiegel,August.05.1008-www.spiegel.de/international)

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Resursele Energetice Mondiale Si Geopolitica

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