Modelare Cap 12

75
CAPITOLUL 12 POLITICI FINANCIAR - MONETARE ÎN MODELUL IS - LM Modelul IS - /0 HVWH GH LQVSLUD LH NH\QHVLVW GH]YROWkQG FRQGL LLOH GH SLD SUHVXSXVH GH .H\QHV vQ PRGHOXO V X 0RGHOXO IS-LM a fost elaborat în varianta economiei închise la finele anilor ´ GH F WUH - +LFNV œL % +DQVHQ LDU vQ YDULDQWD HFRQRPLHL deschise în anii ´GHF WUH5$0XQGHO ’HRVHELUHD HVHQ LDO ID GH PRGHOXO OXL .H\QHV HVWH F modelul IS - /0 LD vQ FRQVLGHUDUH œL SLD D PRQHWDU DVWIHO F vQ GHWHUPLQDUHD FRQGL LLORU de echilibru macroeconomic devin activi IDFWRUL PRQHWDUL œL GUHSW XUPDUH FRPSRQHQWD UHDO œL QX FHD QRPLQDO D IDFWRULORU FX H[SULPDUH E QHDVF ’HWHUPLQDUHD SH termen scurt, a nivelului de activitate se face, la fel ca în modelul lui Keynes, exclusiv pe baza factorilor de cerere, iar oferta este SUHVXSXV GHDVHPHQHDFDSHUIHFWHODVWLF Obiectivul modelului IS - /0 U PkQH FD œL OD .H\QHV SUHFL]DUHD FRQGL LLORU GH HFKLOLEUX PDFURHFRQRPLF œL D HIHFWHORU SH

Transcript of Modelare Cap 12

Page 1: Modelare Cap 12

CAPITOLUL 12

POLITICI FINANCIAR - MONETARE

ÎN MODELUL IS - LM

Modelul IS -� /0� HVWH� GH� LQVSLUD LH� NH\QHVLVW �� GH]YROWkQG�

FRQGL LLOH� GH� SLD � SUHVXSXVH� GH�.H\QHV� vQ�PRGHOXO� V X��0RGHOXO�

IS-LM a fost elaborat în varianta economiei închise la finele anilor

´���� GH� F WUH� -�� +LFNV� úL� %�� +DQVHQ�� LDU� vQ� YDULDQWD� HFRQRPLHL�

deschise în anii ´����GH�F WUH�5��$��0XQGHO�

'HRVHELUHD� HVHQ LDO � ID � GH� PRGHOXO� OXL� .H\QHV� HVWH� F �

modelul IS -� /0� LD� vQ� FRQVLGHUDUH� úL� SLD D�PRQHWDU �� DVWIHO� F � vQ�

GHWHUPLQDUHD� FRQGL LLORU� de echilibru macroeconomic devin activi

IDFWRUL� PRQHWDUL� úL�� GUHSW� XUPDUH�� FRPSRQHQWD� UHDO � úL� QX� FHD�

QRPLQDO � D� IDFWRULORU� FX� H[SULPDUH� E QHDVF �� 'HWHUPLQDUHD�� SH�

termen scurt, a nivelului de activitate se face, la fel ca în modelul

lui Keynes, exclusiv pe baza factorilor de cerere, iar oferta este

SUHVXSXV ��GH�DVHPHQHD��FD�SHUIHFW�HODVWLF �

Obiectivul modelului IS -� /0� U PkQH�� � FD� úL� OD� .H\QHV��

SUHFL]DUHD�FRQGL LLORU�GH�HFKLOLEUX�PDFURHFRQRPLF�úL�D�HIHFWHORU�SH�

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FDUH� OH� SRW�JHQHUD�SROLWLFLOH� HFRQRPLFH� �úi mai ales componentele

lor financiar - monetare) asupra acestui echilibru.

12.1. Modelul IS -�/0�vQ�HFRQRPLD�vQFKLV

0RGHOXO�LQFOXGH�GRX �FRPSRQHQWH�GH�SLD ��SLD D�EXQXULORU�

úL�VHUYLFLLORU��FRPSRQHQWD�,6��úL�SLD D�PRQHWDU ��FRPSRQHQWD�/0���

&RQGL LLOH�de echilibru sunt exprimate prin nivelul de echilibru al

YHQLWXOXL�úL�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��

��������(FKLOLEUXO�SH�SLD D�EXQXULORU

(FKLOLEUXO� SH� SLD D� EXQXULORU� SUHVXSXQH� HFKLOLEUXO� vQWUH�

SURGXVXO� JOREDO� úL� FHUHUHD� JOREDO � GH� EXQXUL� úL� VHUYLFLL�� $FHVW�

echilibrX�HVWH�FRQVLGHUDW�D�IL�H[SULPDW�SULQ�FHO�GLQWUH�LQYHVWL LL��,��úL�

HFRQRPLL� �6��� FDUH� HVWH� PRGHODW� SULQ� FXUED� ,6�� $FHDVW � FXUE �

UHSUH]LQW �PXO LPHD� GXEOHWHORU� �YHQLW� �<��� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� �U���� FDUH�

DVLJXU �HJDOLWDWHD� vQWUH�HFRQRPLL� úL� LQYHVWL LL� úL�HVWH� LQWURGXV �SULQ�

IXQF LD�GH�FRQVXP�úL�IXQF LD�GH�LQYHVWL LL�

)XQF LD� GH� FRQVXP� este cea prin care sunt reprezentate

economiile S, care apar ca fiind dependente de venit printr-o

OHJ WXU �GLUHFW ��)XQF LD�GH�FRQVXP�HVWH��FD�XUPDUH��R�IXQF LH�WRW�GH�

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GHSHQGHQ � GLUHFW �� vQ� FDUH� IDFWRUXO� GH� LQIOXHQ � HVWH� YHQLWXO� QHW�

(disponibil). Venitul net este definit similar modelului lui Keynes

�YH]L�UHOD LLOH������������������úL�������GLQ�FDSLWROXO�����

C = c (Y - Tn) + C0 (1)

)XQF LD� GH� LQYHVWL LL� HVWH� R� IXQF LH� FX� GXEO � GHSHQGHQ ��

IDFWRULL�GH�LQIOXHQ �ILLQG�YHQLWXO�úL�UDWD�GREkQ]LL��

/HJ WXUD� LQYHVWL LL-YHQLW� HVWH� GH� WLS� GLUHFW� úL� HVWH�

FDUDFWHUL]DW � GH� FRHILFLHQWXO� ″a″�� H[SULPkQG� HILFLHQ D�PDUJLQDO � D�

LQYHVWL LLORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� YHQLWXO�� FX� FkWH� XQLW L� FUHúWH� YROXPXO�

LQYHVWL LLORU�GDF �YHQLWXO�FUHúWH�FX�R�XQLWDWH�

/HJ WXUD� YHQLW-UDWD� GREkQ]LL� HVWH� GH� WLS� LQYHUV� úL� HVWH�

FDUDFWHUL]DW � GH� FRHILFLHQWXO� ″b″�� H[SULPkQG� HILFLHQ D�PDUJLQDO � D�

LQYHVWL LLORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL�� FX� FkWH� XQLW L� FUHúWH�

YROXPXO� LQYHVWL LLORU�� GDF � UDWD� GREkQ]LL� FUHúWH� FX� XQ� SXQFW�

SURFHQWXDO�� $FHDVW � OHJ WXU � H[SULP �� SH� GH� DOW � SDUWH�� FRUHOD LD�

LQYHUV �GLQWUH�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�úL�HILFLHQ D�PDUJLQDO ��GHVFUHVFkQG ��D�

capitalului).

)RUPD�IXQF LHL�GH�LQYHVWL LL�HVWH:

( ), E U D < ,= − ∗ + ∗ + ∈0 0 1� ���D � úL� E > 0 (2)

)XQF LD� GH� HFKLOLEUX� a modelului IS -� /0� HVWH� VLPLODU �

FHOHL�GLQ�PRGHOXO�OXL�.H\QHV��YH]L�UHOD LD�������GLQ�FDSLWROXO�����

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Y = C + I + G (3)

9DULDELOHOH� ILQDQFLDUH� VXQW�� FKHOWXLHOLOH� JXYHUQDPHQWDOH� úL�

LPSR]LWHOH� QHWH� �YH]L� UHOD LD� �������� GLQ� FDSLWROXO� ����� DPEHOH�

considerate exogene:

G = G0, Tn = T0�����������������������������������úL������

3ULQ�VXEVWLWX LD�����������������úL�������vQ�UHOD LD�GH�HFKLOLEUX�

se poate separa expresia venitului:

( )< F D & , * F 7 E U1 0 0 0 0− − = + + − ∗ − ∗ , (5)

din care se deduce valoarea ratei dobânzii:

UF D

E<

& , * F 7

E= −

− −∗ +

+ + − ∗1 0 0 0 0 (6)

5HOD LD�����HVWH�XQD�GLQWUH�IRUPHOH�FXUEHL�,6��SH�ED]D�DFHVWHL�

IRUPH� VH� FRQVWUXLHúWH� OHJ WXUD� FX� FHD� GH-D� GRXD� FRPSRQHQW � D�

PRGHOXOXL�� FXUED� /0�� SUHFXP� úL� UD LRQDPHQWHOH� SULYLQG� HIHFWHOH�

XQRU�SROLWLFL�HFRQRPLFH��GH�LQYHVWL LL��ILQDQFLDUH��PRQHWDUH�HWF��

&XUED�,6�SXQH�vQ�HYLGHQ �R�OHJ WXU �GH�WLS�LQYHUV��UH]XOWDW �

din forma curbelor de conVXP�úL�LQYHVWL LL��([SOLFD LD�DFHVWXL�JHQ�GH�

OHJ WXU �R�FRQVWLWXLH�IDSWXO�F ��SULQ�FUHúWHUHD�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��VXUVHOH�

GH� FDSLWDO� VH� VFXPSHVF�� LQYHVWL LLOH� VXQW� WHPSRUL]DWH� VDX� FKLDU� vQ�

UHFXO��DVWIHO�vQFkW�QLYHOXO�DFWLYLW LL�QX�PDL�FUHúWH�VDX�FKLDU�VFDGH�úL,

LPSOLFLW��VFDG�YHQLWXULOH�DJHQ LORU�HFRQRPLFL�

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,QWHQVLWDWHD�DFHVWHL� OHJ WXUL�GH�WLS�LQYHUV�HVWH�GDW �GH�SDQWD�

curbei: coeficientul (1-c-a)/b. Dimensiunea acestui coeficient este

GDW �GH�SDUDPHWULL�IXQF LLORU�GH�FRQVXP�úL�GH�LQYHVWL LL��FRPSRQHQWD�

determLQDQW �HVWH�HILFLHQ D�PDUJLQDO �D�LQYHVWL LLORU�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�

GREkQ]LL�� 3H� ED]D� XQHL� OHJ WXUL� IDFWRULDOH� GH� WLSXO� FHOHL� vQWUH�

HILFLHQ D� PDUJLQDO �� HILFLHQ D� PHGLH� úL� HODVWLFLWDWHD� LPSRUWXULORU�

�YH]L� UHOD LLOH� �������� úL� �������� GLQ�FDSLWROXO������QH�YRm referi în

FRQWLQXDUH� OD� HODVWLFLWDWHD� LQYHVWL LLORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL��

GDF � HODVWLFLWDWHD� DFHDVWD� FUHúWH�� DWXQFL� úL� HILFLHQ D� PDUJLQDO � D�

LQYHVWL LLORU�FUHúWH�úL��UHVSHFWLY��VFDGH�GDF �VFDGH��3DQWD�FXUEHL�YD�IL�

cu atât mai mare cu cât elasticitaWHD� LQYHVWL LLORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD�

GREkQ]LL� HVWH� PDL� PLF �� UHVSHFWLY� FX� DWkW� PDL� PLF � FX� FkW�

HODVWLFLWDWHD�YD�IL�PDL�PDUH��6H�GLVWLQJ�GRX �FD]XUL�OLPLW �

(i) GDF � LQYHVWL LLOH� VXQW�SHUIHFW� LQHODVWLFH�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�

dobânzii (EI/r = 0), atunci curba IS este�YHUWLFDO �

(ii) GDF � LQYHVWL LLOH� VXQW� SHUIHFW� HODVWLFH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD�

dobânzii (EI/r = ∞���DWXQFL�FXUED�,6�HVWH�RUL]RQWDO �

EI/r� �HODVWLFLWDWHD�LQYHVWL LLORU�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

3R]L LD�FXUEHL�vQWU-XQ�SODQ��<�U��HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW �QX�QXPDL�

dH�SDQW ��FL�úL�GH�P ULPHD�YDULDELOHORU�H[RJHQH�

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− R�FUHúWHUH��GLPLQXDUH��D�FKHOWXLHOLORU�SXEOLFH�VDX�D�LQYHVWL LLORU�

DXWRQRPH� GHSODVHD] � FXUED� VSUH� GUHDSWD� �VWkQJD��� ILH� ,01>I0� úL�

G01>G0, respectiv I0

2<I0�úL�*02<G0��vQ�ILJXUD����VXQW�HYLGHQ LDWH�

astfel de deSODV UL�DOH�FXUEHL�,6�

− �R� GLPLQXDUH� �FUHúWHUH�� D� ILVFDOLW LL� GHSODVHD] � FXUED� VSUH�

dreapta (stânga); fie T01>T0� úL� 70

2<T0; în figura 55 sunt

HYLGHQ LDWH� GHSODV ULOH� FXUEHL� ,6� UH]XOWDWH� GLQ� DVWIHO� GH�

PRGLILF UL�

ÌQ�ILJXUD����DP�H[SULPDW�GHSHQGHQ D�����SULQ�IXQF LD�I()⋅ .

��������(FKLOLEUXO�SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU

(FKLOLEUXO� SH� SLD D� PRQHWDU � SUHVXSXQH� HFKLOLEUXO� vQWUH�

FHUHUHD� úL� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL��$FHVW� HFKLOLEUX� HVWH�PRGHODW� SULQ� FXUED�

/0�FDUH�H[SULP �OHJ WXUD�vQWUH�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL��/��úL�RIHUWD�de bani

�0��� $FHDVW � FXUE � UHSUH]LQW � PXO LPHD� GXEOHWHORU� �YHQLW�� UDWD�

GREkQ]LL��FH�DVLJXU �HJDOLWDWHD�vQWUH�RIHUWD�úL�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL�

Oferta de bani HVWH� FRQVLGHUDW � H[RJHQ �� vQ� VHQVXO� XQHL�

YDULDELOH�FDUH�HVWH�PDQHYUDW �GH�%DQFD�1D LRQDO �

M = M0 (7)

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r r

r1 r2

r2 r r1 r

Y Y

Fig. 55 Deplasarea curbei IS vQ� IXQF LH� GH� PRGLILFDUHD� P ULPLL���������������

autonome a unora dintre factori Cererea de bani HVWH� LQWURGXV � vQWU-R� PDQLHU � NH\QHVLVW ��

GLIHULW �GH�FRQFHS LD�FODVLF ��DGLF �SULQ�SUHIHULQ D�SHQWUX�OLFKLGLW L�

�/���SHQWUX�FDUH�VH�DFFHSW �GRX �FRPSRQHQWH�aditive:

− FHUHUHD� GH� OLFKLGLW L� GHFXUJkQG� GLQ� WUDQ]DF LL� �/1), în care se

LQFOXGH�úL�FHUHUHD�GHFXUJkQG�GLQ�SUHFDX LH�

− FHUHUHD�GH�OLFKLGLW L�GHFXUJkQG�GLQ�VSHFXOD LL��/2)

L = L1 + L2 (8)

Cererea de banL�SHQWUX� WUDQ]DF LL�este o cerere decurgând

GLQ� GRULQ D� GH� vQFDV UL� DFWLYH� DOH� DJHQ LORU� HFRQRPLFL�� DGLF � GH� D�

a) deplasarea curbei IS pentru PRGLILF UL�DOH�LQYHVWL LLORU�úL�cheltuielilor guvernamentale

r1 = f(I1) sau f(G1) r2 = f(I2) sau f(G2)

b) deplasarea curbei IS pentru PRGLILF UL�DOH�ILVFDOLW LL r1 = f(T1) r2 = f(T2)

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DYHD�VXILFLHQWH�vQFDV UL�SHQWUX�D-úL�GHUXOD�vQ�PRG�QRUPDO�DFWLYLW LOH�

OXFUDWLYH�� FD� úL� EDQL� FD� UH]HUY � SHQWUX� D�SXWHD� IDFH� ID � VLWXD LLORU�

neprHY ]XWH��'H� DFHHD�� IXQF LD� HVWH�FRQVWUXLW �FD� ILLQG�FUHVF WRDUH�

în raport cu venitul:

L1 = O <1∗ , l1>0 (9)

&HUHUHD�GH�EDQL�SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL�este o cerere decurgând

GLQ�GRULQ D�DJHQ LORU�HFRQRPLFL�GH�D�GLVSXQH�GH�OLFKLGLW L�SHQWUX�D�

SXWHD�SURILWD�GH�HYHQWXDOHOH� LQIRUPD LL�SH�FDUH� OH-DU�GH LQH�SULYLQG�

HYROX LD�SLH HL��$YkQG�SRVLELOLWDWHD�GH�D�SODVD�EDQL�vQ�FRQIRUPLWDWH�

FX�DFHVWH�LQIRUPD LL��DJHQ LL�HFRQRPLFL�VSHU �vQ�VSRUXUL�GH�YDORDUH��

vQ� FkúWLJXUL� VXSOLPHQWDUH��PDL� UHPXQHUDWRULL� GHFkW�SRVLELOLW LOH�SH�

FDUH�OH�RIHU �SLD D�EDQFDU ��3LD D�YL]DW �vQ�SULPXO�UkQG�SHQWUX�DVWIHO�

GH� VSHFXOD LL� HVWH� SLD D� ILQDQFLDU �� vQ� VSH � YDULD LD� WLWOXULORU� GH�

valoare.

ÌQ� FD]XO� vQ� FDUH� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� HVWH� VF ]XW �� H[LVW � R�

SRVLELOLWDWH� UHODWLY�PDUH�FD�HYROX LD�YLLWRDUH�D� UDWHL�GREkQ]LL� V � VH�

SURGXF � vQ� VHQVXO� FUHúWHULL� HL�� 'DF � DFHDVW � SUHYL]LXQH� VH�

DGHYHUHúWH�� DWXQFL� VH� YD� SURGXFH� VF GHUHD� FXUVXULORU� WLWOXULORU� GH�

valoare. Acest lucru le face atractive pentru eventXDOLL�FXPS U WRUL��

DVWIHO�vQFkW�DJHQ LL�HFRQRPLFL�YRU�vQFHUFD�V �RE LQ �OLFKLGLW L�SHQWUX�

D� SXWHD� FXPS UD�� YRU� YLQGH� S U L� GLQ� DYHUHD� ORU� VDX� YRU� VROLFLWD�

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vPSUXPXWXUL�OD�E QFL��GHWHUPLQkQG�SULQ�DFHDVWD�R�FUHúWHUH�D�FHUHULL�

GH�EDQL��3ULQ�DFHODúL�PHFDQLVP�Ve va ajunge la o diminuare a cererii

GH�EDQL�vQ�FD]XO�vQ�FDUH�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�VH�VLWXHD] �OD�XQ�QLYHO�ULGLFDW�

'HSHQGHQ D�DFHVWHL�FRPSRQHQWH�D�FHUHULL�GH�EDQL�ID �GH�UDWD�

GREkQ]LL�HVWH�GH�WLS�LQYHUV��LDU�IXQF LD�FDUDFWHULVWLF �HVWH�GH�IRUPD�

/ O U /2 2 0 2 0= − ∗ + >� ��O , (10)

unde L0�HVWH�FHUHUHD�DXWRQRP �GH�EDQL�SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL�

3H�ED]D�UHOD LLORU�����-������VH�SRDWH�FRQVWUXL�IXQF LD�FHUHULL�

totale de bani:

/ O < O U /= ∗ − ∗ +1 2 0 � (11)

în care cei doi parametrii , l1�úL�O2��UHSUH]LQW �VHQVLWLYLWDWHD�FHUHULL

�WRWDOH� GH� EDQL� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� YHQLWXO� úL�� UHVSHFWLY�� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL��

(VWH� GH� UHPDUFDW� F � vQ� FRPSRQHQWD� /1 (cererea de bani pentru

WUDQ]DF LL��� SDUDPHWUXO� O1 are sensul unei cereri medii de bani:

ceUHUHD� GH� EDQL� SHQWUX� XQLWDWHD� GH� DFWLYLWDWH� �GH� WUDQ]DF LL��� &XP�

∂ ∂/ < O1 1= � � UH]XOW �F �IXQF LD�/1�HVWH�FRQVWDQW ��DFFHSWkQG�FD]XO�

SDUWLFXODU� DO� HJDOLW LL� FHUHULL� PHGLL� �XQLWDUH�� GH� EDQL� SHQWUX�

WUDQ]DF LL�FX�VHQVLWLYLWDWHD�FHUHULL�GH�EDQL�SHQWUX�WUDQ]DF LL��vQ�UDSRUW�

cu volumul acestora.

0RGHOXO� SLH HL�PRQHWDUH� LQFOXGH� UHOD LLOH� ����� úL� ���� úL�� vQ�

SOXV��HFXD LD�GH�HFKLOLEUX�

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L = M (12)

3ULQ� VXEVWLWXLUHD� UHOD LLORU� ���� úL� ����� vQ� UHOD ia (12) se

RE LQH�

0 O < O U /0 1 2 0= ∗ − ∗ + (12.1)

úL�DSRL�H[SUHVLD�FXUEHL�/0�

UO <

O

0 /

O=

∗−

−1

2

0 0

2

. (13)

3DQWD�FXUEHL�/0�HVWH�GDW �GH� UDSRUWXO� VHQVLWLYLW LORU�FHORU�

GRX � FRPSRQHQWH� DOH� FHUHrii de bani, respectiv de raportul

VHQVLWLYLW LORU��FHUHULL�WRWDOH�GH�EDQL�vQ�IXQF LH�GH�FHL�GRL�IDFWRUL�GH�

LQIOXHQ ��<�úL�U���ÌQ�PRG�RELúQXLW��DFHDVW �SDQW �HVWH�SR]LWLY ��O1>0

úL� O2>���� ÌQ� LSRWH]D� XQHL� PDVH� PRQHWDUH� FRQVWDQWH�� GDF � UDWD�

GREkQ]LL�FUHúWH��DWXQFL�VH�SURGXFH�GRDU�R�PRGLILFDUH�VWUXFWXUDO ��VH�

UHGXFH�PDVD�PRQHWDU �SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL��GHRDUHFH�VH�UHGXFH�FHUHUHD�

GH�EDQL�SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL��úL�FUHúWH�PDVD�PRQHWDU �SHQWUX�WUDQ]DF LL�

�GHRDUHFH�FUHúWH�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL�SHQWUX�WUDQ]DF LL���3H�ED]D�DFHOHLDúL�

GHSHQGHQ H� vQWUH� VHQVLWLYLWDWH� � úL� HODVWLFLWDWH�� PHQ LRQDW � úL� vQ�

SDUDJUDIXO�SUHFHGHQW��YH]L�úL�UHOD LLOH���������úL���������GLQ�FDSLWROXO�

�����YRP�REVHUYD�F �SDQWD�FXUEHL�HVWH�FX�DWkW�PDL�SURQXQ DW �FX�FkW�

elasticitatea cererii de bani în raport cu rata dobânzii este mai

ULGLFDW �úL�LQYHUV��'LVWLQJHP�úL�DLFL�GRX �FD]XUL�OLPLW �

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(i) GDF � FHUHUHD� GH� EDQL� HVWH� SHUIHFW� HODVWLF � vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD�

dobânzii (EL/r=∞��� DWXQFL� FXUED� /0� HVWH� RUL]RQWDO �� GH� UHJXO �

DFHVW� OXFUX� VH� vQWkPSO � FkQG� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� HVWH� IRDUWH� PLF ��

IHQRPHQXO�JHQHUDW�GH�DFHDVW �vPSUHMXUDUH�VH�QXPHúWH�″capcana

OLFKLGLW LL″;

(ii) GDF � FHUHUHD� GH� EDQL� HVWH� SHUIHFW� LQHODVWLF � vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD�

dobânzii (EL/r ���� DWXQFL� FXUED� /0� HVWH� YHUWLFDO �� DFHDVW �

împrejurare corespunde ipotezei clasice a lipsei cererii de bani

SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL�

3R]L LD�FXUEHL�vQWU-XQ�SODQ��<�U��HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW �QX�QXPDL

�GH�SDQW ��FL�úL�GH�P ULPHD�YDULDELOHL�H[RJHQH�00��RIHUWD�GH�EDQL��úL�

de cuantumul cererii autonome de bani (L0):

− R�FUHúWHUH��GLPLQXDUH��D�RIHUWHL�GH�EDQL�GHSODVHD] �FXUED�/0�

spre dreapta (stânga); fie M01>M0� úL� 00

2<M0�� GHSODV ULOH�

FXUEHL� /0� vQ� IXQF LH� GH� DFHVWH�PRGLILF UL� VXQW� SUH]HQWDWH� vQ�

figura 56;

− R�GLPLQXDUH� �FUHúWHUH�� D� FHUHULL� DXWRQRPH�GH�EDQL�GHSODVHD] �

curba LM spre dreapta (stânga); fie L01<L0� úL� /0

2>L0;

GHSODV ULOH� FXUEHL� /0� vQ� IXQF LH� GH� DFHVWH� PRGLILF UL� VXQW�

prezentate în figura 56.

ÌQ�ILJXUD����DP�H[SULPDW�GHSHQGHQ D������SULQ�IXQF LD� ( )I ⋅ �

Page 12: Modelare Cap 12

12.1.3. Echilibrul concomitent

3HQWUX� ILHFDUH� GLQ� FHOH�GRX �SLH H� V-D�FRQVWUXLW� R� FXUE �GH�

eFKLOLEUX��,6�SHQWUX�SLD D�EXQXULORU�úL�VHUYLFLLORU��UHOD LD������úL�/0��

SHQWUX�SLD D�PRQHWDU ��UHOD LD��������(FKLOLEUXO�VLPXOWDQ�SH�DPEHOH�

SLH H�HVWH�GDW�GH� LQWHUVHF LD�FHORU�GRX �FXUEH�úL�HVWH�H[SULPDW�SULQ�

YDORULOH�GH�HFKLOLEUX�D�GRX �YDULDELOH��QLYHOXO�YHQLWXULORU��< �úL�UDWD�

GREkQ]LL�� U ��9RP�VXEVWLWXL�YDORDUHD� OXL� U�GLQ�UHOD LD������ vQ�����úL�

YRP�VHSDUD�SH�<��RE LQHP�

( )<

& , * F 7 E 0 / O

F D E O O

�=

+ + − ∗ + −− − + ∗

0 0 0 0 0 0 2

1 21 (14.1)

( ) ( )( )

( )UO & , * F 7 F D 0 /

O F D E O O

�=

+ + − ∗ − − − −− − + ∗

1 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 1 2

1

1 (14.2)

1LYHOXO�GH�HFKLOLEUX�DO�YHQLWXOXL�úL�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�GHSLQG�GH�

variabilele exogene (cheltuieli guvernamentale, impozite), de

P ULPHD� DXWRQRP � D� FHUHULL� GH� EDQL� úL� D� LQYHVWL LLORU�� FD� úL� GH�

SDUDPHWULL� IXQF LLORU� SUHVXSXVH� GH�PRGHO� �IXQF LLOH�GH�FRQVXP��GH�

LQYHVWL LL�� GH� FHUHUH� GH� EDQL� SHQWUX� WUDQ]DF LL� úL� GH� FHUHUH� GH�bani

SHQWUX�VSHFXOD LL���

Page 13: Modelare Cap 12

r r2 r r2

r r

r1 r1

Y Y

Fig. 56 Deplasarea curbei LM vQ� IXQF LH� GH� PRGLILFDUHD� P ULPLL���������������

exogene sau autonome a unora dintre factori 3HQWUX�R�SLD �D�PXQFLL�IXQF LRQkQG�vQ�DIDUD�PRGHOXOXL��XQ�DQXPLW�

QLYHO�GH�HFKLOLEUX�DO�YHQLWXOXL�úL��LPSOLFLW��DO�DFWLYLW LORU�HFRQRPLFH�

ar putea fi insuficient VDX�H[DJHUDW�� ,QVXILFLHQ D��GH�SLOG ��SRDWH�IL�

UH]XOWDWXO� XQXL� QLYHO� SUHD� VF ]XW� DO� LQYHVWL LLORU� DXWRQRPH� VDX� DO�

FKHOWXLHOLORU� JXYHUQDPHQWDOH� GDWH� H[RJHQ� VDX� DO� XQHL� ILVFDOLW L�

H[FHVLYH� �GDW �� GH� DVHPHQHD�� H[RJHQ�� VDX� DO� XQHL� LQVXILFLHQ H� D�

ofertei de baQL� GHWHUPLQDW �� WRW� H[RJHQ�� GH� %DQFD� 1D LRQDO �� 'H�

DVHPHQHD�� LQVXILFLHQ D� VDX� FDUDFWHUXO� H[DJHUDW� DO� QLYHOXOXL� GH�

HFKLOLEUX� UH]XOWDW� GLQ� PRGHO� vúL� SRDWH� DYHD� VXUVD� vQ� YDORULOH� SUHD�

PLFL�DOH� vQFOLQD LHL�PDUJLQDOH�VSUH�FRQVXP�VDX�VSUH�LQYHVWL LL� �F�úL�

a) deplasarea curbei LM pentru PRGLILF UL�DOH�RIHUWHL�GH�EDQL

r1 = f(M01)

r2 = f(M02)

b) deplasarea curbei LM �SHQWUX�PRGLILF UL�DOH�FHUHULL autonome de bani r1 = f(L0

1) r2 = f (L0

2)

Page 14: Modelare Cap 12

a), saX� vQ� YDORULOH� LPSURSULL� DOH� FRHILFLHQ LORU� IXQF LHL� FHUHULL� GH�

bani (l1� úL� O2), sau ale coeficientului b, exprimând sensitivitatea

LQYHVWL LHL�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

r IS1 LM2

IS0 H LM0

IS2 F B LM1

G A D

E C

I

Y

Fig. 57 Deplasarea punctului de echilibru potrivit diferitelor politici economice 5HSUH]HQWDUHD� FXUEHORU� ,6� úL� /0� DP� I FXW-o distinct în

ILJXUD����úL�����FRQVLGHUkQG�SR]L LLOH�UHVSHFWLYH�FD�ILLQG�″LQL LDOH″,

identificate prin simbolurile IS0�úL�/00�� OQWHUVHF LD�ORU��ILH�SXQFWXO�

A, este punctul de echilibru de coordonate Y* (conform (14�����úL�

r* (conform (14.2)). Reprezentarea acestui punct apare în figura 57,

vQ� FDUH� WUDV P�FHOH�GRX �FXUEH� vQ� DFHODúL�XQLF� SODQ� �<�U���)D �GH�

DFHDVW � VLWXD LH� LQL LDO � SRW� IL� SXVH� vQ� GLVFX LH� GLIHULWH� SROLWLFL� �GH�

LQYHVWL LL�� ILVFDO �� EXJHWDU �� PRQHWDU �� FDUH� PRGLILF � HFKLOLEUXO� úL�

GHWHUPLQ �GLIHULWH�HIHFWH�vQ�FHHD�FH�SULYHúWH�YHQLWXO�úL�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

7LSXULOH�GH�SROLWLFL�úL�HIHFWHOH�ORU�VXQW�FDUDFWHUL]DWH�DVWIHO�

Page 15: Modelare Cap 12

1° UHODQVDUH�EXJHWDU ��� I01> I0�úL�VDX�*0

1> G0�úL�VDX�701< T0;

curba IS0 trece în IS1, iar echilibrul din A

în B;

����������������������������������������HIHFWH��FUHVF�<�úL�U�

2° UHODQVDUH�PRQHWDU ��M01> M0�úL�VDX�/0

1< L0;

curba LM0 trece în LM1, iar echilibrul din

A în C;

���������������������������������������HIHFWH��FUHúWH�<��VH�UHGXFH�U�

3° UHODQVDUH�EXJHWDU

�����úL�PRQHWDU ������������ I01> I0�úL�VDX�*0

1> G0�úL�VDX�701< T0�úL�VDX�

M01> M0�úL�VDX�/0

1< L0;

curba IS0 trece în IS1� úL�/00 în LM1, iar

echilibrul din A în D;

���������������������������������������HIHFWH��FUHúWH�<��U�HVWH�FRQVWDQW�

4° IUkQ �EXJHWDU ����������I02< I0�úL�VDX�*0

2< G0�úL�VDX�702> T0;

curba IS0 trece în IS2, iar echilibrul din A

în E;

����������������������������������������HIHFWH��VH�UHGXF�<�úL�U�

5° IUkQD�PRQHWDU ����� M02< M0�úL�VDX�/0

2> L0;

curba LM0 trece în LM2, iar echilibrul din

A în F;

Page 16: Modelare Cap 12

���������������������HIHFWH��VH�UHGXFH�<��FUHúWH�U�

6° IUkQD�EXJHWDU

���úL�PRQHWDU ������� I02< I0�úL�VDX�*0

2< G0�úL�VDX�702> T0�úL�VDX�

M02< M0�úL�VDX�/0

2> L0;

curba IS0 trece în IS2� úL�/00 în LM2, iar

echilibrul din A în G;

efecte: se reduce puternic Y, iar r este

constant.

7° UHODQVDUH�EXJHWDU

�����úL�IUkQ �PRQHWDU I01> I0�úL�VDX�*0

1> G0�úL�VDX�701< T0,

simultan cu M02< M0�úL�VDX�/0

2> L0;

curba IS0 trece în IS1� úL�/00 în LM2, iar

echilibrul din A în H;

����������������������������������������HIHFWH��<�HVWH�FRQVWDQW��FUHúWH�SXWHUQLF�U�

8° IUkQ �EXJHWDU �úL

�UHODQVDUH� PRQHWDU I02< I0� úL�VDX� *0

2< G0� úL�VDX� 702> T0,

simultan cu M01> M0�úL�VDX�/0

1< L0;

curba IS0 trece în IS2� úL�/00 în LM1, iar

echilibrul, din A în I;

efecte: Y este constant, scade puternic r.

Page 17: Modelare Cap 12

În întreaga prezentare a modelului IS - LM, atât în cazul

HFRQRPLHL� vQFKLVH� �DQDOL] � HIHFWXDW � vQ� FDSLWROXO� ������� FkW� úL� vQ�

FD]XO� HFRQRPLHL� GHVFKLVH� �DQDOL] � FH� YD� IL� HIHFWXDW � vQ� FDSLWROXO�

������� IRORVLP�QR LXQLOH� GH� FXUE � ,6� úL� FXUE �/0�� UHVSHFWLY� FXUE �

XB (vezi capitolul 12.2) într-XQ�PRG�LPSURSULX��vQV �nu eronat. În

prezentarea modelului IS - LM am considerat liniare OHJ WXULOH�

GLQWUH�YDULDELOH�úL��GH�DFHHD��″curba″�DSDUH�vQ�IRUPD�HL�SDUWLFXODU �GH�

GUHDSW �� ÌQ� FD]XO� JHQHUDO�� FkQG� UHOD LLOH� GLQWUH� Yariabile nu sunt

OLQLDUH�� OHJ WXULOH� �<�U�� DSDU� VXE� IRUPD� XQRU� FXUEH� �ILJXUD� ����

DVLPSWRWLFH� OD� D[HOH� GH� FRRUGRQDWH�� &D]XO� JHQHUDO� LQGLF � XQHOH�

SUREOHPH�VSHFLDOH�JHQHUDWH�GH�FRPSOH[LWDWHD�PRGHOXOXL��úL�DQXPH��

WLSXO�GH�QHOLQLDULWDWH��PHWRGD�GH�VROX LRQDUH�D�XQHL�HFXD LL�QHOLQLDUH��

$FHVWH�GLILFXOW L�DX�FRQGXV�OD�QHFHVLWDWHD�SUH]HQW ULL�PRGHOXOXL�vQ�

IRUPD� VD�FHD�PDL� OHVQH�DERUGDELO �SHQWUX�GHVFLIUDUHD�FRQH[LXQLORU�

OD� QLYHO�PDFURHFRQRPLF�� D� IDFWRULORU�GH�GHSHQGHQ ��D�PRGXOXL� vQ�

FDUH�vúL�H[WHULRUL]HD] �LQIOXHQ D�SDUDPHWULL�úL�FRHILFLHQ LL�PRGHOXOXL�

ÌQ� SUH]HQWDUHD�PRGHOXOXL� DX� IRVW� HYLGHQ LDWH� FD� VLWXD LL� GH�

H[FHS LH� �OLPLW �� FD]XULOH� SHUIHFWHL� VDX� LPSHUIHFWHL� HODVWLFLW L� D�

LQYHVWL LLORU�� UHVSHFWLY� FHUHULL� GH� EDQL�� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL��

Aceste cazuri conduc, în raport cu diferite politici, la efecte de

″curgere″ sau la efecte nule.

Page 18: Modelare Cap 12

� � �� � �� � �

�� ��� ��� �

����

)LJ�����5HSUH]HQWDUHD�YDULD LHL�SXQFWXOXL GH�HFKLOLEUX�vQ�FRQGL LL�GH�QHOLQLDULWDWH�D

modelului IS - LM 'HVLJXU��HVWH�SX LQ�SUREDELO�FD�LSRWH]HOH�UHIHULWRDUH�OD�HODVWLFLWDWH�V �

VH� SURGXF � vQ� SUDFWLF �� 6WXGLXO� ORU� QH� SHUPLWH� vQV � vQ HOHJHUHD�

PHFDQLVPXOXL� vQ� VLWXD LL� vQ� FDUH� P ULPHD� UHDO � D� HODVWLFLW LL� DU�

JHQHUD�HIHFWH�PLQRUH�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�DúWHSW ULOH��3UDFWLFLDQXO��GHFLGHQW�

vQ�SULYLQ D�SROLWLFLL�HFRQRPLFH�GRULW �D� VH�DGRSWD��YD�SXWHD�DYHD�R�

P VXU � D� HILFLHQ HL� UHVSHFWLYHL� SROLWLFL� vQ� DYDQV� ID � GH� DSOLFDUHD�

HIHFWLY � D� DFHVWHLD�� DGLF � DQWH-factum în sensul procedeului

VLPXO ULL�� $FHVWH� VLWXD LL� OLPLW � VXQW� SUH]HQWDWH� vQ� ILJXUD� ���� LDU�

efectele lor sunt caracterizate astfel:

9° &DSFDQD�OLFKLGLW LL : FXUED�/0�HVWH�RUL]RQWDO ��DGLF �FHUHUHD�

GH�EDQL�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�HVWH�SHUIHFW�HODVWLF �

Page 19: Modelare Cap 12

��������������������������������������������VXV LQHUHD�EXJHWDU �SULQ�FUHúWHUHD

cheltuielilor guvernamentDOH� VDX� UHGXFHUHD� ILVFDOLW LL� FRQGXFH� OD�

WUHFHUHD�FXUEHL�,6�GLQ�SR]L LD�,61�vQ�SR]L LD�,61′�úL�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL�GLQ�

A din în B;

��������������������������������������������HIHFWH��<�FUHúWH�SXWHUQLF��U�HVWH�FRQVWDQW��

DVWIHO�vQFkW�SROLWLFD�VXV LQHULL�EXJHWDUH�DUH�R�HILFDFLWDWH�WRWDO �

10° Capcana costului

banilor ����������������FXUED�/0�HVWH�YHUWLFDO ��DGLF �FHUHUHD�GH�

EDQL�HVWH�SHUIHFW�LQHODVWLF �vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

�����������������������������������������VXV LQHUHD� EXJHWDU � �vQ� IRUPHOH� GHMD

DPLQWLWH��FRQGXFH�OD�WUHFHUHD�FXUEHL�,6�GLQ�SR]L LD�,62�vQ�SR]L LD�,62′

úL�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL�GLQ�&�vQ�'�

�����������������������������������������HIHFWH��<�HVWH� FRQVWDQW�� U� FUHúWH�SXWHUQLF��

DVWIHO�vQFkW�HILFDFLWDWHD�SROLWLFLL�GH�VXV LQHUH�EXJHWDU �HVWH�QXO �

11° &UHúWHUHD�GH�WLS

scurgeres ���FXUED�,6�HVWH�RUL]RQWDO ��DGLF �LQYHVWL LLOH�

sunt perfect elastice în raport cu rata dobânzii;

������������������������������������������VXV LQHUHD�PRQHWDU �SULQ�FUHúWHUHD�RIHUWHL�

de bani sau diminuarea ofertei de bani conduce la trecerea curbei

/0�GLQ�SR]L LD�/01�vQ�SR]L LD�/01′�úL�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL�GLQ�(�vQ�)�

Page 20: Modelare Cap 12

������������������������������������������HIHFWH��<�FUHúWH�SXWHUQLF��U�HVWH�FRQVWDQW��

DVWIHO�vQFkW�SROLWLFD�VXV LQHULL�PRQHWDUH�DUH�R�HILFDFLWDWH�WRWDO �

� �� �� � � � �

� ��� ��� �� �

�� � ��� �

� ��

��

� !

"

)LJ�����3XQFWXO�GH�HFKLOLEUX�úL�GLQDPLFD�OXL�vQ�FkWHYD�VLWXD LL�OLPLW �

DOH�FXUEHORU�,6�úL�/0

12° Insensibilitatea

�������LQYHVWL LLORU� � � � � � � � � � �� FXUED� ,6�HVWH�YHUWLFDO ��DGLF � LQYHVWL LLOH�

sunt perfect inelastice în raport cu rata dobânzii;

������������������������������������������VXV LQHUHD� PRQHWDU � �vQ� IRUPHOH� GHMD�

DPLQWLWH��FRQGXFH�OD�WUHFHUHD�FXUEHL�/0�GLQ�SR]L LD�/01�vQ�SR]L LD�

LM1′�úL�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL�GLQ�SXQFWXO�*�vQ�SXQFWXO�+�

�����HIHFWH��<�HVWH�FRQVWDQW��U�FUHúWH�SXWHUQLF��

DVWIHO�vQFkW�HILFDFLWDWHD�SROLWLFLL�GH�VXV LQHUH�PRQHWDU �HVWH�QXO �

Page 21: Modelare Cap 12

12.1.4. Caracteristicile politicilor financiar - monetare

în modelul IS - LM

(FKLOLEUXO� úL� FUHúWHUHD� HFRQRPLF � UHIOHFWDWH� SULQ� PRGHOXO�

IS-LM sunt�FDUDFWHUL]DWH�SULQ�Fk LYD�PXOWLSOLFDWRUL�GH�WLSXO�FHORU�GLQ�

PRGHOXO� UHGXV� DO� OXL� .H\QHV�� $FHúWL� PXOWLSOLFDWRUL� LQWHJUHD] �

IDFWRULL� ILQDQFLDUL� DL� FUHúWHULL� HFRQRPLFH� úL� SDUDPHWULL� VSHFLILFL�

LQWURGXúL�SULQ�IXQF LLOH�FH�GHILQHVF�LQYHVWL LD��HFRQRPLLOH��LPSRUtul,

FRQVXPXO�HWF��0XOWLSOLFDWRULL�LQGLFDWRULORU�FH�VH�UHJ VHVF�vQ�DPEHOH�

PRGHOH��]LúL�″comuni″, au puteri multiplicative mai mici în modelul

IS-/0�GDWRULW �IHQRPHQXOXL�QXPLW�″frâna″�ILQDQFLDU ��GHWHUPLQDW�GH�

YDULD LLOH� UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�� SHUFHSXWH� vQ�SURFHVXO� FUHúWHULL�HFRQRPLFH�

FD� SHUWXUED LL� FX� HIHFWH� GH� vQFHWLQLUH�� 3H� OkQJ � DFHúWLD�� DSDUH� XQ�

multiplicator specific numai modelului IS-LM, legat de oferta de

bani.

12.1.4.1. &DUDFWHULVWLFLOH�UHODQV ULL�SULQ�LQYHVWL LL

5HODQVDUHD� SULQ� LQYHVWL LL� HVWH� UHOHYDW � SULQ� FUHúterea

LQYHVWL LLORU�DXWRQRPH��DFHDVWD�JHQHUHD] �R�DPSOLILFDUH�D�DFWLYLW LL�

HFRQRPLFH� FDUH� DUH� FD� HIHFW� FUHúWHUHD� YHQLWXULORU� DJHQ LORU�

HFRQRPLFL��FD�XUPDUH�FUHúWH�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL��ÌQ�LSRWH]D�F �RIHUWD�GH�

EDQL� HVWH� FRQVWDQW �� VH� SURGXFH� XQ� GH]HFKLOLEUX� vQWUH� FHUHUHD� úL�

Page 22: Modelare Cap 12

RIHUWD�GH�EDQL�FDUH�GHWHUPLQ �R�VFXPSLUH�D�EDQLORU��DGLF �R�FUHúWHUH�

D� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� 'LQ� DFHVW� PRWLY� VH� DWHQXHD] � SURFHVXO�

LQYHVWL LRQDO��SH�GH�R�SDUWH�FRVWXO�FDSLWDOXOXL�SHQWUX�LQYHVWL LL�FUHúWH��

SH� GH� DOW � SDUWH� VH� PRGLILF � UDSRUWXO� FkúWLg-risc în favoarea

SODVDPHQWHORU�vQ�GHSR]LWH�úL�vQ�GHWULPHQWXO�FHORU�vQ�HFRQRPLD�UHDO ��

'H� DLFL�� WHPSRUL]DUHD� DFWLYLW LL� HFRQRPLFH� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� D� FUHúWHULL�

YHQLWXULORU�DJHQ LORU�HFRQRPLFL�

,QWHQVLWDWHD� FUHúWHULL� HFRQRPLFH� SH� VHDPD� LQYHVWL LLORU� HVWH�

cuaQWLILFDW � SULQWU-un multiplicator, PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO� LQYHVWL LLORU, a

F UXL� H[SUHVLH� VH� RE LQH� GLQ� UHOD LD� �������� F UHLD� vL� DSOLF P�

RSHUDWRUXO� GH� YDULD LH� ∆� úL� LQHP� VHDPD� F � HVWH� YDULDELO� GRDU�

LQGLFDWRUXO� LQYHVWL LL�� FHLODO L� �FRQVXP�� FKHOWXLHOL� JXYHUQDPHQtale,

LPSR]LWH��RIHUW �GH�EDQL��FHUHUH�GH�EDQL��ILLQG�FRQVWDQ L��2E LQHP�

( )∆∆<

,F D E O O

01 21 1= − − + ∗ (15)

ÌQ�PRGHOXO� UHGXV�DO� OXL�.H\QHV�PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO� LQYHVWL LLORU�

este:

( ) ( )∆∆<

,F D F D E O O

01 21 1 1 1= − − > − − + ∗ ,

UHOD LD�GH�RUGLQH�H[SULPDW �ILLQG�UH]XOWDW�DO� IDSWXOXL�F � vQ�PRGHOXO�

IS-/0� QXPLWRUXO� PXOWLSOLFDWRUXOXL� VH� PDMRUHD] � FX� R� YDORDUH�

Page 23: Modelare Cap 12

SR]LWLY ��$FHDVW �YDORDUH�FXDQWLILF �impactul ″frânei″ financiare:

E O O∗ >1 2 0 (16)

'LQ� FRQVWUXF LD� DFHVWHL� H[SUHVLL� VH� REVHUY � F � ″frâna″

ILQDQFLDU �HVWH�FX�DWkW�PDL�SXWHUQLF �FX�FkW�

− VHQVLWLYLWDWHD�LQYHVWL LLORU�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL��E��HVWH�PDL�

PDUH��DGLF �SDQWD�FXUEHL�,6�HVWH�PDL�PLF �

− sensitivitatea cererii de bani în raport cu venitul (l1) este mai

mare;

− sensitivitatea cererii de bani în raport cu rata dobânzii (l2) este

PDL�PLF �

− sensitivitatea ratei dobânzii în raport cu venitul (l1/l2) este mai

PDUH��DGLF �SDQWD�FXUEHL�/0�HVWH�PDL�PDUH�

Cea de-D�SDWUD�FRQGL LH� OH�VLQWHWL]HD] �SH�D�GRXD�úL a treia.

'DF � VXQW� UHXQLWH�SULPD� úL� D�SDWUD� FRQGL LH��DWXQFL� UHODQVDUHD�SULQ�

LQYHVWL LL� GHWHUPLQ � R� FUHúWHUH� SXWHUQLF � D� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� FHHD� FH�

GLPLQXHD] �HIHFWXO�GH�FUHúWHUH�D�YHQLWXULORU�DJHQ LORU�HFRQRPLFL�

Pentru ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � SRW� IL� SXVH� vQ� HYLGHQ � GRX �

VLWXD LL�OLPLW ��″frâna″�WRWDO �úL�″frâna″�QXO ��&HD�GH-D�GRXD�VLWXD LH�

DUDW � F � PRGHOXO� UHGXV� DO� OXL� .H\QHV� HVWH� XQ� FD]� SDUWLFXODU� DO�

modelului IS-LM. Astfel, în cazul politicii de relansare prin

LQYHVWL LL��GDF �″frâna″�ILQDQFLDU �HVWH�QXO ��DGLF �

Page 24: Modelare Cap 12

E O O∗ =1 2 0�

PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO�DFHVWRUD�UHYLQH�OD�FHO�GLQ�PRGHOXO�UHGXV��3H�GH�DOW �

SDUWH��vQ�SULPD�VLWXD LH�YDORDUHD�PXOWLSOLFDWRUXOXL�GHYLQH�]HUR��FHHD�

FH� DUDW � F � PRGHOXO� FODVLF� GH� FUHúWHUH� HVWH� XQ� FD]� SDUWLFXODU� DO�

modelului IS-LM, deoareFH�vQ�PRGHOXO�FODVLF�QX�H[LVW �QR LXQHD�GH�

multiplicator.

″Frâna″�ILQDQFLDU �WRWDO �VH�SURGXFH�GDF �HVWH�vQGHSOLQLW �FHO�

SX LQ�XQD�GLQ�XUP WRDUHOH�GRX �FRQGL LL�

− FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL�HVWH�WRWDO�LQVHQVLELO �vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL��

DGLF �O2 = 0, ceea ce înseDPQ �F �DYHP�R�FXUE �/0�YHUWLFDO �

− LQYHVWL LLOH� VXQW� DEVROXW� VHQVLELOH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL��

DGLF � E → ∞� �FHHD�FH�vQVHDPQ �F �DYHP�R�FXUE �,6�RUL]RQWDO �

″Frâna″�ILQDQFLDU �QXO �VH�SURGXFH�GDF �HVWH�vQGHSOLQLW �FHO�

SX LQ�XQD�GLQ�XUP WRDUHOH�GRX �FRQGL LL�

− LQYHVWL LLOH� VXQW� WRWDO� LQVHQVLELOH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� GREkQ]LL��

DGLF �E� ����FHHD�FH�vQVHDPQ �F �DYHP�R�FXUE �,6�YHUWLFDO �

− FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL�HVWH�DEVROXW�VHQVLELO �vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL��

DGLF � O2 → ∞� � FHHD� FH� vQVHDPQ � F � DYHP� R� FXUE � /0�

RUL]RQWDO �

Page 25: Modelare Cap 12

����������&DUDFWHUL]DUHD�UHODQV ULL�SULQ�SROLWLFL�EXJHWDUH

5HODQVDUHD� SULQ� SROLWLFL� EXJHWDUH� SUHVXSXQH� ILH� FUHúWHUHD�

FKHOWXLHOLORU� SXEOLFH�� ILH� GLPLQXDUHD� ILVFDOLW LL�� $FHVW� JHQ� GH�

UHODQVDUH� HVWH� vQVR LW� GH� HIHFWXO� GH� HYLF LXQH� ILQDQFLDU �� (IHFWXO�

DSDUH� vQ�P VXUD� vQ� FDUH� UHODQVDUHD� HVWH� vQVR LW � GH� FUHúWHUHD� UDWHL�

dobânzii.

Ambele componente ale politicii bugetare au ca efect

FUHúWHUHD� YHQLWXOXL� DJHQ LORU� HFRQRPLFL�� $FHDVW � FUHúWHUH� GXFH� OD�

P ULUHD� FHUHULL� GH� EDQL�� FDUH�� vQ� FRQGL LLOH� XQHL� RIHUWH� GH� EDQL�

FRQVWDQWH��JHQHUHD] �R�FUHúWHUH�D�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��,QYHVWL LLOH�VXIHU �

un impact negativ care conduce la diminuarea venitului social.

$VWIHO�� IHQRPHQXO� HYLF LXQLL� ILQDQFLDUH� WHPSRUL]HD] � HIHFWXO� GH�

FUHúWHUH�LQGXV�SULQ�SROLWLFD�EXJHWDU ��'DF �HYLF LXQHD�HVWH�VXILFLHQW�

GH�SXWHUQLF ��SRDWH�DQXOD�HIHFWXO�GH�FUHúWHUH�VDX�GHWHUPLQ �FKLDU�XQ�

recul economic.

,QWHQVLWDWHD� FUHúWHULL� SULQ� FRPSRQHQWD� FKHOWXLHOLORU� SXEOLFH�

HVWH�GH�DFHHDúL�P ULPH�FX�FHD�GHWHUPLQDW �GH�SROLWLFD�LQYHVWL LLlor

�YH]L� ������ úL� HVWH� H[SULPDW � SULQ� multiplicatorul cheltuielilor

publice:

∆∆

∆∆

<

*

<

,0 0

= (16)

Page 26: Modelare Cap 12

,QWHQVLWDWHD� FUHúWHULL� SULQ� FRPSRQHQWD� ILVFDOLW LL� HVWH� PDL�

UHGXV �GHFkW�D�FKHOWXLHOLORU�SXEOLFH��FRPSDUD LD�VH�IDFH�vQ�YDORDUH�

DEVROXW ��YH]L�������

( )∆∆<

7F F D E O O

01 21= − − − + ∗ (17)

0XOWLSOLFDWRUXO� ILVFDOLW LL� din modelul IS-LM este, în

YDORDUHD� DEVROXW �� PDL� PLF� GHFkW� FHO� GLQ� PRGHOXO� UHGXV� DO� OXL�

Keynes:

( ) ( )F F D E O O F F D1 11 2− − + ∗ < − − �

deoarece include ″frâna″�ILQDQFLDU ��'H�DFHHD��FUHúWHUHD�ILVFDOLW LL�

JHQHUHD] �SULQ�DFHVW�PRGHO�GLPLQX UL�DOH�YHQLWXOXL�PDL�PLFL�GHFkW�

vQ� FD]XO� PRGHOXOXL� UHGXV�� LDU� GLPLQXDUHD� ILVFDOLW LL� JHQHUHD] �

FUHúWHUL�PDL�PLFL��(IHFWXO�SkUJKLHL�ILVFDOH�HVWH�úL�HO�PDL�Dtenuat, la

IHO� FD� úL� vQ� FD]XO� SkUJKLHL� LQYHVWL LLORU� VDX� D� FHOHL� D� FKHOWXLHOLORU�

bugetare.

(IHFWHOH�SROLWLFLL�EXJHWDUH��GH�UHODQVDUH�VDX�GH�IUkQ ��DX�IRVW�

SUH]HQWDWH�VLQWHWLF�úL� vQ�FDSLWROXO���������YH]L�úL� UHSUH]HQWDUHD�GLQ�

figura 57). Efectul maxim apare când ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � HVWH�

PLQLP �� LDU� HIHFWXO� PLQLP� FkQG� ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � HVWH� PD[LP ��

&RQGL LLOH�″frânei″ financiare nule sau totale au fost prezentate în

capitolul 12.1.4.1.

Page 27: Modelare Cap 12

12.1.4.3. &DUDFWHUL]DUHD�UHODQV ULL�SULQ�SROLWLFL�PRQHWDUH

Relansarea prin politicL� PRQHWDUH� SUHVXSXQH� FUHúWHUHD�

ofertei de bani sau diminuarea cererii de bani. Modelul IS-LM

HYLGHQ LD] � FDUDFWHUXO� DFWLY� SH� FDUH� PRQHGD� vO� DUH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX�

HFRQRPLD� UHDO � úL� UHSUH]LQW � XQ� HOHPHQW� WHRUHWLF� úL� SUDFWLF� FX�

FDUDFWHU�GH�QRXWDWH�ID �GH�SR]L LD�úFROLL�FODVLFH�FDUH�SXQHD�LSRWH]D�

QHXWUDOLW LL�PRQHWDUH�

3ROLWLFD�PRQHWDU �DF LRQHD] �SULQ�LQWHUPHGLXO�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��

&UHúWHUHD� PDVHL� PRQHWDUH�� vQ� FRQGL LLOH� XQHL� FHUHUL� FRQVWDQWH� GH�

PRQHG ��GHWHUPLQ �UHGXFHUHD�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��$VWIHO�LQYHVWL LLOH�VXQW�

îQFXUDMDWH�� LDU� FUHúWHUHD� ORU� GXFH� OD� FUHúWHUHD� YHQLWXOXL� VRFLDO��

,QWHQVLWDWHD� HIHFWXOXL� DFHVWHL� SROLWLFL� HVWH� FRQFUHWL]DW � SULQ�

multiplicatorul monetar (vezi 14.1):

( )( )∆∆<

0E O F D E O O

02 1 21= − − + ∗ (18)

)D � GH� FHLODO L� PXOWLSOLFDWRUL�� VH� FRQVWDW � o similitudine

SULYLQG�LQIOXHQ D�SH�FDUH�R�H[HUFLW �SDUDPHWULL�OHJD L�GH�YHQLW��F��D��

úL�E��� FD� úL�R�GLIHUHQ LHUH�SULYLQGX-l pe cel legat de rata dobânzii,

FDUH� QX� PDL� LQWHUYLQH� úL� SULQ� QXP U WRUXO� úL� SULQ� QXPLWRUXO�

multiplicatorului, ci numai prin numitor�� (VWH� HYLGHQW� F �

PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO� PRQHWDU� HVWH� LQYHUV� SURSRU LRQDO� FX� VHQVLWLYLWDWHD��

cererii de bani în raport cu rata dobânzii (în cazul echilibrului

Page 28: Modelare Cap 12

PRQHWDU�� FRQIRUP� UHOD LHL� �������� DFHDVW � VHQVLWLYLWDWH� SRDWH� IL�

FRQVLGHUDW �úL�UHODWLY�OD�RIHUWD�GH�EDQL���5H]XOWDWXO�HVWH�FRQVHFLQ D�

PRGXOXL�vQ�FDUH�D�IRVW�LQWURGXV �GHSHQGHQ D�IDFWRULDO �D�FHUHULL�GH�

EDQL��YH]L�UHOD LD��������

&RPSDUDWLY� FX�SROLWLFD�EXJHWDU �� FDUH� DUH� HIHFWH�GH�DFHODúL�

VHQV�� VLPXOWDQ�SHQWUX�YHQLW�úL� UDWD�GREkQ]LL��SROLWLFD�PRQHWDU �DUH�

efecte de sens contrar pentru cei doi indicatori (vezi capitolul

���������'H�DFHHD��SHQWUX�VLWXD LD�vQ�FDUH�VH�GRUHúWH�″PLúFDUHD″ fie

QXPDL� D� YHQLWXOXL�� ILH� QXPDL� D� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� VH� UHFRPDQG �

XWLOL]DUHD�VLPXOWDQ �D�FHORU�GRX �SROLWLFL��FDUH�vúL�SRW�DQXOD�reciproc

HIHFWHOH� vQ� FH� SULYHúWH� LQGLFDWRUXO� D� F UXL� FRQVWDQ � VH� GRUHúWH��

amplificând ″PLúFDUHD″ celuilalt.

(IHFWHOH� SROLWLFLL� PRQHWDUH� �GH� UHODQVDUH� VDX� GH� IUkQ �� DX�

IRVW�SUH]HQWDWH�VLQWHWLF�úL�vQ�FDSLWROXO���������YH]L�úL�UHSUH]HQWDUHD�

din figura 57). Efectul maxim apare când ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � HVWH�

PLQLP �� LDU� HIHFWXO� PLQLP� FkQG� ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � HVWH� PD[LP ��

&RQGL LLOH�″frânei″ financiare nule sau totale au fost prezentate în

capitolul 12.1.4.1.

12.1.4.4. Caracterizarea efectelor mixului de politici

Mixul de�SROLWLFL�SUHVXSXQH�XWLOL]DUHD�VLPXOWDQ �D�SROLWLFLL�

Page 29: Modelare Cap 12

EXJHWDUH� úL� PRQHWDUH�� &HOH� GRX � WLSXUL� GH� SROLWLFL� VXQW� SDU LDO�

FRQYHUJHQWH��SDU LDO�FRPSHQVDWRULL��$VWIHO�

− UHODQVDUHD�EXJHWDU �DUH�FD�HIHFW�DWkW�FUHúWHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��FkW�úL�D�

ratei dobânzii;

− relansarea�PRQHWDU �DUH�FD�HIHFW�DWkW�FUHúWHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��FkW�úL�

reducerea ratei dobânzii;

− IUkQD�EXJHWDU �DUH�FD�HIHFW�DWkW�UHGXFHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��FkW�úL�D�UDWHL�

dobânzii;

− IUkQD�PRQHWDU �DUH�FD�HIHFW�UHGXFHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��FkW�úL�FUHúWHUHD�

ratei dobânzii.

&RQYHUJHQ D� FHORU� GRX � SROLWLFL� ID � GH� YHQLW� SRDWH� IL�

XWLOL]DW �SHQWUX�FXSODUHD�ORU�vQ�YHGHUHD�RE LQHULL�ILH�D�XQHL�UHODQV UL�

SXWHUQLFH�D�DFHVWXLD��ILH�D�XQHL�IUkQ UL�SXWHUQLFH�D�OXL�

'LYHUJHQ D�ORU�ID �GH�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�SRDWH�IL�XWLOL]DW �SHQWUX�

cuplarea lor în vedHUHD� RE LQHULL� ILH� D� XQHL� FUHúWHUL� SXWHUQLFH� D�

DFHVWHLD��ILH�D�XQHL�IUkQ UL�SXWHUQLFH�D�HL�

3HQWUX� VLWXD LD� vQ� FDUH� VH� GRUHúWH� ″PLúFDUHD″ numai a

venitului, se pot utiliza simultan politici de relansare, respectiv de

″IUkQ ″��GHRDUHFH�FHOH�GRX �SROLWLFL�vúL�DQXOHD] �HIHFWHOH�vQ�FHHD�FH�

SULYHúWH� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� úL� OH� DPSOLILF � SH� FHOH� SULYLQG� YHQLWXO��

&RPELQD LD�HVWH�WHQWDQW �GHRDUHFH�QX�LQGXFH�HIHFWH�LQIOD LRQLVWH�

Page 30: Modelare Cap 12

prin rata dobânzii.

3HQWUX� VLWXD LD� vQ� FDUH� VH�GRUHúWH� ″PLúFDUHD″ numai a ratei

dobânzii, se�SRW�XWLOL]D� VLPXOWDQ�R�SROLWLF �GH� UHODQVDUH� úL�XQD�GH�

IUkQ ��GHRDUHFH��vQ�DFHVW�FD]��FHOH�GRX �SROLWLFL�vúL�DQXOHD] �HIHFWHOH�

vQ� FHHD� FH� SULYHúWH� YHQLWXO� úL� OH� DPSOLILF � SH� FHOH� SULYLQG� UDWD�

dobânzii.

0L[XO� GH� SROLWLFL� GH� UHODQVDUH� GHWHUPLQ � R� FUHúWHUH� mai

SXWHUQLF � D� YHQLWXOXL� GHFkW� vQ� FD]XO� XWLOL] ULL� VHSDUDWH� D� ILHF UHLD�

GLQ� FHOH� GRX �� ÌQ� FRPSDUD LH� QXPDL� FX� UHODQVDUHD� EXJHWDU �� DFHVW�

PL[� HYLW � FUHúWHUHD� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL� úL� HIHFWXO� GH� HYLF LXQH� FDUH� R�

vQVR HúWH�� JHQHUkQG� VLPXOWDQ� HIHFWXO�� GH� UHJXO � GRULW�� DO� FUHúWHULL�

venitului.

0L[XO�GH�SROLWLFL�GH�UHODQVDUH�úL�IUkQ �GHWHUPLQ �HIHFWH�PDL�

SXWHUQLFH�DVXSUD�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�GHFkW�XWLOL]DUHD�VHSDUDW �D�ILHF UHLD�

GLQ�FHOH�GRX ��$FHVW�HIHFW�PDL�SXWHUQLF�HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW�GH�IDSWXO�F �

VH� H[HUFLW � LQIOXHQ H� LQYHUVe, dar simultane, atât asupra cererii de

EDQL��FkW�úL�DVXSUD�RIHUWHL�GH�EDQL��ÌQ�FD]XO�UHODQVDUH�EXJHWDU �SOXV�

IUkQ �PRQHWDU ��SULPD�FRPSRQHQW �P UHúWH�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL��LDU�FHD�

de-D� GRXD� PLFúRUHD] � RIHUWD� GH� EDQL�� UH]XOWDWXO� HVWH� FUHúWHUHD�

SXWHUQLF � D� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� ÌQ� FD]XO� IUkQ � EXJHWDU � SOXV� UHODQVDUH�

PRQHWDU �� SULPD� FRPSRQHQW �GLPLQXHD] �FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL�� LDU�FHD�

Page 31: Modelare Cap 12

de-D� GRXD� P UHúWH� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL�� UH]XOWDWXO� HVWH� UHGXFHUHD�

SXWHUQLF �D�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�

12.2. Modelul IS -�/0�vQ�HFRQRPLD�GHVFKLV

Modelul LQFOXGH�� SH� OkQJ � FHOH� GRX � SLH H� SUHVXSXVH� GH�

HFRQRPLD�vQFKLV ��SLD D�EXQXULORU�úL�VHUYLFLLORU�úL�SLD D�PRQHWDU ���

úL� FRPSRQHQWD� H[WHUQ � D� SLH HL�� YL]kQG� VFKLPEXULOH� GH�

EXQXUL�VHUYLFLL� úL� IOX[XULOH�GH�FDSLWDO�� ÌQ�DFHVW� VHQV��DSDUH� vQ�PRG�

H[SOLFLW�EDODQ D�GH�SO L��ÌQ�DFHVW�PRGHO�VH�X]HD] �GH�LSRWH]D�OXL�-��

Lecaillon privind abordarea ″restului lumii″� vQ�PRG� JOREDO�� FD� úL�

FkQG� DU� IL� R� DOW � ″HFRQRPLH� QD LRQDO ″, cu care cea pe care o

VWXGLHP� GH LQH� OHJ WXUL� FRPHUFLDOH� �YH]L� FDSLWROXO� ���������

Economia mondiaO � DSDUH� DVWIHO� IRUPDW � GLQ� GRX � ″economii″:

HFRQRPLD�QD LRQDO �D� ULL�SHQWUX�FDUH�VH�IDFH�VWXGLXO�úL�″economia

QD LRQDO �D�UHVWXOXL�OXPLL″.

��������%DODQ D�GH�SO L

%DODQ D�GH�SO L�%�VH�FRPSXQH�GLQ�

− EDODQ D�GH�SO L�FXUHQWH�VDX�EDODQ D�FRPHUFLDO ��%F� în care se

Page 32: Modelare Cap 12

LQFOXG� WUDQ]DF LLOH� FXUHQWH� GH� EXQXUL� úL� VHUYLFLL� FX� H[WHULRUXO��

H[SRUWXO��;��úL�LPSRUWXO��0���GDF �H[SRUWXO�GHS úHúWH�LPSRUWXO��

UH]XOW �F �EDODQ D�FXUHQW �GH�SO L�HVWH�DFWLY ��H[FHGHQWDU ��

X > M ⇒ Bc > 0, (19.1)

LDU�vQ�FD]�FRQWUDU�HVWH�SDVLY ��GHILFLWDU ��

X < M ⇒ Bc < 0. (19.2)

− EDODQ D�GH�FDSLWDO�%N�� vQ�FDUH�VH� LQFOXG�PLúF ULOH�GH�FDSLWDOXUL�

nemonetare: afluxul de capital (AK), reprezentând iQWU ULOH�GH�

FDSLWDO� vQ� DU �úL� UHIOX[XO�GH�FDSLWDO� �5.���UHSUH]HQWkQG�LHúLULOH�

GH�FDSLWDO�GLQ� DU ��GDF �DIOX[XO�GH�FDSLWDO�HVWH�PDL�PDUH�GHFkW�

UHIOX[XO��UH]XOW �F �EDODQ D�GH�FDSLWDO�HVWH�DFWLY ��H[FHGHQWDU ��

AK > RK ⇒ Bk > 0, (20.1)

LDU��vQ�FD]�FRQWUDU��HVWH�SDVLY ��GHILFLWDU ��

AK < RK ⇒ Bk < 0. (20.2)

6ROGXULOH� FHORU� GRX �EDODQ H�SRW� IL� GH� DFHODúL� VHPQ�VDX�GH�

VHPQ�FRQWUDU��LDU�VXPD�ORU�GHWHUPLQ �VROGXO�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�

B = Bc + Bk (21)

6ROGXO� EDODQ HL� GH� SO L� FRUHVSXQGH� YDULD LHL� UH]HUYHORU� GH�

VFKLPE��5��DOH�VLVWHPXOXL�PRQHWDU�QD LRQDO�

− H[FHGHQWXO� EDODQ HL� GHWHUPLQ � FUHúWHUHD� UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH�

QD LRQDOH;

Page 33: Modelare Cap 12

− GHILFLWXO� EDODQ HL� GHWHUPLQ � GLPLQXDUHD� UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH�

QD LRQDOH�

12.2.1.1. (FXD LD�EDODQ HL�FRPHUFLDOH

&RQVWUXLUHD� HFXD LHL� EDODQ HL� FRPHUFLDOH� QHFHVLW � GHILQLUHD�

IXQF LLORU�GH�H[SRUW��;��úL�GH�LPSRUW��0��DOH�HFRQRPLHL�GH�UHIHULQ ��

cea pe care o studiem.

)XQF LD�GH�H[SRUW�HVWH�GHILQLW �FD�R�IXQF LH�GH�GRL�IDFWRUL�

− produsul final al ″restului lumii″ sau al ″exteriorului″, Ye, care

GHWHUPLQ � GLUHFW� SURSRU LRQDO� H[SRUWXO� ULL� vQ� FDX] �� OHJ WXU �

PRWLYDW �SULQ�IDSWXO�F �R�EXQ �FRQMXQFWXU �PRQGLDO �DFWLYHD] �

tHQGLQ D� DJHQ LORU� QD LRQDOL� GH� D� H[SRUWD� GDWRULW � GHEXúHHORU�

IDYRUDELOH�� FHUHUH� PDL� PDUH� GH� SURGXVH�� FDSDFLWDWH� GH� SODW �

VSRULW �D�DJHQ LORU�H[WHUQL�HWF�

− FXUVXO�UHDO�GH�VFKLPE�DO�GHYL]HORU�vQ�PRQHG �QD LRQDO ��FVU��FDUH�

GHWHUPLQ �� GH� DVHPHQHD�� GLUHFW� SURSRU LRQDO� H[SRUWXO� ULL� vQ�

FDX] �� OHJ WXU � PRWLYDW � SULQ� IDSWXO� F � P ULPHD� DFHVWXL� FXUV�

DGXFH� SULQ� H[SRUW� PDL� PXOWH� GHYL]H� OD� R� XQLWDWH� GH� PRQHG �

QD LRQDO �

$VWIHO��IXQF LD�GH�H[SRUW�HVWH�

X = X (Ye, crs), X′Ye>��úL�;′csr>0 (22.1)

Page 34: Modelare Cap 12

Cursul real de schimb este un indicator nu numai al

raportului monetar ″intereconomic″�� GDU� úL� R� P VXU � D�

FRPSHWLWLYLW LL� SURGXVHORU� QD LRQDOH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� FHOH� VWU LQH�� 8Q�

FXUV� UHDO�GH�VFKLPE� vQ�FUHúWHUH� IDFH�FD��SHQWUX�R�XQLWDWH�PRQHWDU �

QD LRQDO � GH� SURGXVH� H[SRUWDWH�� V � VH� vQFDVH]H�PDL�PXOWH� GHYL]H��

FUHkQG� SRVLELOLWDWHD� FRQVROLG ULL� UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH� QD LRQDOH��

&XUVXO�UHDO�GH�VFKLPE�VH�FDOFXOHD] �GXS �UHOD LD�

FVU FVSH

SL= ∗ , (22.2)

unde: cs - este FXUVXO� GH� VFKLPE� FXUHQW� H[SULPDW� FD� QXP U� GH�

XQLW L� PRQHWDUH� VWU LQH� FX� FDUH� VH� FXPS U � R� XQLWDWH� PRQHWDU �

QD LRQDO ��

pe -�HVWH�QLYHOXO�SUH XULORU�H[WHUQH�

pi -�HVWH�QLYHOXO�SUH XULORU�LQWHUQH�

)XQF LD�GH� LPSRUW�HVWH�GHILQLW ��GH�DVHPHQHD��FD�R�IXQF LH�

de doi factori:

− SURGXVXO� ILQDO� LQWHUQ�� <�� FDUH� GHWHUPLQ � LQYHUV� SURSRU LRQDO�

QLYHOXO� LPSRUWXOXL� ULL� VWXGLDWH�� GHRDUHFH� GLPLQXDUHD� VD�

FUHHD] � XQ� JRO� vQ� DFRSHULUHD� FHUHULL� SH� SLD D� LQWHUQ �� SH� FDUH�

DJHQ LL� HFRQRPLFL� QD LRQDOL� YRU� vQFHUFD� V -l acopere prin

DFKL]L LD�GH�SURGXVH�GLQ�″restul lumii″;

Page 35: Modelare Cap 12

− FXUVXO� UHDO� GH� VFKLPE� DO� GHYL]HORU� vQ�PRQHGD� QD LRQDO �� FDUH�

GHWHUPLQ ��GH�DVHPHQHD��LQYHUV�SURSRU LRQDO�LPSRUWXO��GHRDUHFH�

HO� H[SULP � FRPSHWLWLYLWDWHD� SURGXVHORU� QD LRQDOH�� FDUH�� FX� FkW�

este mai� ULGLFDW ��FX�DWkW�YD�JHQHUD�R�QHYRLH�PDL�PLF �GH�D�IL�

I FXWH� DFKL]L LL� GH� SURGXVH� VWU LQH�� LPSOLFLW� - un import mai

mic.

$VWIHO��IXQF LD�GH�LPSRUW�HVWH�

M = M (Y, csr), M′Y<��úL�0′csr<0 (22.3)

ÌQ�DFHVWH�FRQGL LL��HFXD LD�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�FXUHQWH�HVWH�

Bc = X-M = X(Ye,csr) - M(Y,csr) = Bc(Y,Ye,csr), (22.4)

FHHD�FH� UHYLQH� OD� IDSWXO�F � HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW �GH� WUHL� IDFWRUL�GH�FDUH�

HVWH�OHJDW �SULQWU-XQ�UDSRUW�GLUHFW�SURSRU LRQDO�

− produsul final intern, Bc′Y>0

− produsul final al ″restului lumii″, Bc′Ye>0

− cursul real de schimb, Bc′csr>0

���������(FXD LD�EDODQ HL�GH�FDSLWDO

3RVHVRULL� GH� OLFKLGLW L� DX� WHQGLQ D� GH� D� OH� YDORULILFD� SULQ�

SODVDPHQWH�SH�SLD D�GH�FDSLWDO��$FHVWHD�SRW�IL�SODVDPHQWH�SH�SLD D�

QD LRQDO � úL� SODVDPHQWH� vQ� VWU LQ WDWH�� $OHJHUHD� SLH HL� GH� SODVDUH�

FRQVWLWXLH� SHQWUX� DVWIHO� GH� DJHQ L� HFRQRPLFL� GH� WLS� 8&(� úL� 8&6�

Page 36: Modelare Cap 12

�YH]L�FDSLWROXO������R�SUREOHP �GH�DUELWUDM�SULYLQG�SODVDPHQWHOH��DO�

F UHL�FULWHULX�GH�DOHJHUH� vO� UHSUH]LQW �FkúWLJXULOH�SH�FDUH� OH�FRQIHU �

fiecare din aceste SODVDPHQWH��$JHQ LL�HFRQRPLFL�vQ�FDX] �GHILQHVF�

UHVSHFWLYXO� FkúWLJ� SULQ� VXPD� D� GRX � FRPSRQHQWH�� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� úL�

VSRUXO�GH�YDORDUH�DO�FDSLWDOXOXL�SH�GXUDWD�GH LQHULL�SODVDPHQWXOXL�vQ�

FDX] �

3ODVDPHQWXO� vQ� PRQHG � QD LRQDO � DUH� GUHSW� P VXU � úL�

WRWRGDW �OLPLW �PLQLP �GH�DFFHSWDUH�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU �

QD LRQDO ��vQ�PRQHG �QD LRQDO ��ILH�U�

3HQWUX�SODVDPHQWXO�vQ�PRQHG �VWU LQ �VH�GHILQHúWH�XQ�FkúWLJ�

ce cuprinde:

− UDWD�GREkQ]LL�SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU �SHQWUX�PRQHGD�VWU LQ �vQ�FDUH�VH�

va face plasamentul, fie re;

− PRGLILFDUHD�YDORULL�FDSLWDOXOXL�GHWHUPLQDW �GH�YDULD LD�DQWLFLSDW �

D�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE�DO�GHYL]HORU�vQ�FDX] ��ILH�∆cs.

'LIHUHQ D�GH�UHQWDELOLWDWH�vQWUH�FHOH�GRX �SODVDPHQWH�HVWH�

drp = r - re - ∆cs , (23.1)

úL� HD� GHWHUPLQ �PRGLILFDUHD� DIOX[XULORU� úL� UHIOX[XULORU� GH� FDSLWDO��

DGLF �VROGXO�EDODQ HL�GH�FDSLWDO�D�F UXL�H[SUHVLH�HVWH�

Bk = Bk (r - re -∆cs). (23.2)

Page 37: Modelare Cap 12

)DFWRUXO� GH� LQIOXHQ � DO� VROGXOXL� EDODQ Hi de capital are o

VWUXFWXU � FH� JHQHUHD] � YDULD LL� DOH� DFHVWXL� VROG� SH� VHDPD� YDULD LHL�

chiar numai a uneia din componentele lui.

'DF � VH� DQWLFLSHD] � XQ� FXUV� GH� VFKLPE� FRQVWDQW� vQWUH�

PRQHGD� QD LRQDO � úL� FHD� SHQWUX� FDUH� V-DU� RSWD� SODVDPHQWXO�� DGLF �

∆cs = 0,� DWXQFL� VROGXO� EDODQ HL� GH� FDSLWDO� GHSLQGH� GH� UDSRUWXO� GH�

RUGLQH�GLQWUH�FHOH�GRX �UDWH�GH�GREkQG �

− GDF � U� >� UH�� DWXQFL� VROGXO� VH� DPHOLRUHD] �� GHRDUHFH� PRQHGD�

QD LRQDO �U PkQH�vQ� DU ��″KU QLQG″�FHUHUHD�GH�LQYHVWL LL��vQ�SOXV��

VXQW�DWUDVH�FDSLWDOXUL�VWU LQH��DGLF �VH�P UHúWH�DIOX[XO�GH�FDSLWDO�

F WUH�″intern″;

− GDF � U� <� UH�� DWXQFL� VROGXO� VH� GHWHULRUHD] � GDWRULW � XQXL�

FRPSRUWDPHQW�GH�IDFWXU �RSXV ��SURYHQLQG�vQV �GLQWU-R�DFHHDúL�

QDWXU �� UD LRQDOLWDWHD� FRPSRUWDPHQWXOXL� HFRQRPLF�� DGLF �

alegerea acelui plasament cH�DGXFH�YDORULILFDUHD�FHD�PDL�EXQ �D�

GLVSRQLELOLW LORU�GH�UHVXUVH��vQ�VSH �GH� OLFKLGLW L��D�DJHQWXOXL�

vQ�FDX] �

'DF �VH�DQWLFLSHD] �HJDOLWDWHD�UDWHORU�GH�GREkQG �SH�SLH HOH�

PRQHWDUH��DGLF �U� �UH��DWXQFL�VROGXO�EDODQ HL�GH�FDSLWDO�GHSLQGH�GH�

YDULD LD�DQWLFLSDW �D�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE�

Page 38: Modelare Cap 12

− GDF �VH�DQWLFLSHD] �R�FUHúWHUH�D�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE�DO�PRQHGHL�

QD LRQDOH�� DGLF � UHGXFHUHD� FXUVXOXL� GH� VFKLPE� DO� PRQHGHL�

VWU LQH� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� FHD� QD LRQDO �� FHHD� FH� vQVHDPQ �∆cs > 0,

DWXQFL�VROGXO�VH�DPHOLRUHD] �

− GDF � VH� DQWLFLSHD] � R� GLPLQXDUH� D� FXUVXOXL� GH� VFKLPE� DO�

PRQHGHL� QD LRQDOH�� DGLF � R� FUHúWHUH� D� FXUVXOXL� GH� VFKLPE� DO�

PRQHGHL� VWU LQH�� FHHD� FH� UHYLQH� OD� ∆cs < 0, atunci soldul se

GHWHULRUHD] �

/HJ WXUD� vQWUH� VROGXO� EDODQ HL� GH� FDSLWDO� úL� GLIHUHQ D� GH�

rentabilitate între� SODVDPHQWH�� SH� GH� R� SDUWH�� úL� vQWUH� DFHVW� VROG� úL�

IDFWRULL�FRPSR]L L�DL�UHVSHFWLYHL�GLIHUHQ H�HVWH�GH�WLSXO�

Bk′drp > 0, Bk′r > 0, Bk′re < 0, Bk′∆cs < 0.

����������,PSDFWXO�GHSUHFLHULL�PRQHGHL�QD LRQDOH

%DODQ D� GH� SO L� D� XQHL� UL� VDX� PRQHGD� HL� QD LRQDO � SRW�

VXIHUL�� vQ� DQXPLWH� vPSUHMXU UL�� GLILFXOW L� PDMRUH�� (VWH� FD]XO� XQRU�

GHILFLWH�H[WHUQH� LPSRUWDQWH�úL�VDX�SUHOXQJLWH��SUHVLXQLORU�SH�SLH HOH�

YDOXWDUH��FRPSHWLWLYLW LL�VF ]XWH�D�SURGXVHORU�QD LRQDOH��GHFDODMXOXL�

QHIDYRUDELO� DO� UDWHORU� GH� GREkQG �SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU � ú�� D��P��G�� ÌQ�

DVWIHO� GH� vPSUHMXU UL� VROX LD� LPHGLDW � D� UHGUHV ULL� PRQHWDUH� HVWH�

GHSUHFLHUHD� PRQHGHL� QD LRQDOH�� 6ROX LD� DUH� XQ� FDUDFWHU� GH�

Page 39: Modelare Cap 12

quasigeneralitate, dar efectele ei sunt numai temporare, punctuale,

GDF �QX�HVWH�GXEODW �GH�UHIRUP UL�GH�IRQG��FXP�VXQW�FHOH�JHQHUDWH�

GH� SURJUHVXO� WHKQLF�� UHVWUXFWXUDUHD� HFRQRPLF � HWF�� (VWH� GH� DOWIHO�

FD]XO�PRQHGHL� URPkQHúWL� � FDUH��SH�SDUFXUVXO�DQLORU� ′90, a suportat

GHSUHFLHUL� UHSHWDWH�� FRQVHFLQ � D� SURGXFHULi multora din

vPSUHMXU ULOH� QHIDYRUDELOH� DPLQWLWH� PDL� VXV�� ([SHULHQ D� PRQGLDO �

SXQH�vQ�OXPLQ �FkWHYD�WLSXUL�GH�DSHO�OD�GHSUHFLHUHD�PRQHWDU �

− VLVWHPXO� GH� FRQYHUVLH� IL[ �� vQ� FDUH� %DQFD� &HQWUDO �1D LRQDO �

VWDELOHúWH� FXUVXULOH� GH� VFKLPE� IL[H� SH� LQWHUYDOH�� VXV inând

PHQ LQHUHD�ORU��FD]XO�WLSLF�HVWH�DO�68$�vQ�DQLL�′���VDX�DO�)UDQ HL�

vQ�SULPD�MXP WDWH�D�DQLORU�′80;

− VLVWHPXO� GHSUHFLHULL� FRQWLQXH�� vQ� FDUH� FXUVXO� HVWH� O VDW� V � VH�

VWDELOHDVF � vQ�PRG� OLEHU� SH�SLD �� I U � LQWHUYHQ LL�GH� VXV LQHUH��

cazul recent al AnglieL�úL� ,WDOLHL��FDUH��SURFHGkQG�DVWIHO�vQ�DQXO�

������ DX� UHQXQ DW� OD� FRQGL LLOH� úL� UHJOHPHQW ULOH� VWDWXDWH� vQ�

sistemul monetar european, pe care l-DX� úL� S U VLW� �,WDOLD� GRDU�

WHPSRUDU�� GXS � FDUH� D� UHYHQLW��� GH� DVHPHQHD�� FD]XO� 5RPkQLHL�

GXS � DQXO� ������ FkQG� V-a liberalizat, în limite relativ largi,

VFKLPEXO�PRQHGHL�QD LRQDOH�SH�GHYL]H�

− sistemul cursurilor de schimb flotante, practicat de SUA în anii

1994-������ R� YDULDQW � D� DFHVWXL� VLVWHP� HVWH� DFFHSWDW � vQ�

Page 40: Modelare Cap 12

sistemul monetar european prin flotabilitatea între limite date,

FX�REOLJD LD� VWDWXOXL� �% QFLL�&HQWUDOH�1D LRQDOH��GH�D� LQWHUYHQL�

în caz de ″GHIHF LXQL″.

'HSUHFLHUHD� PRQHGHL� QD LRQDOH� SRDWH� FRQWULEXL� OD�

DPHOLRUDUHD� HILFLHQ HL� VFKLPEXULORU� FRPHUFLDOH� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� D�

VROGXOXL�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L��'HSUHFLHUHD�P UHúWH�SUH XO�GH� LPSRUW� vQ�

PRQHG �QD LRQDO �úL�PLFúRUHD] �SUH XO�GH�H[SRUW�vQ�PRQHG �VWU LQ ��

FRQWULEXLQG� OD� FUHúWHUHD� FRPSHWLWLYLW LL� FRPHUFLDOH� D� SURGXVHORU�

QD LRQDOH�� $FHVW� SURFHGHX� JHQHUHD] � GRX � HIHFWH� DVXSUD� EDODQ HL�

FRPHUFLDOH�úL��LPSOLFLW��DVXSUD�FHOHL�GH�SO L�

(i) FUHúWHUHD�SUH XOXL�UHODWLY�DO�LPSRUWXULORU�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�H[SRUWXULOH�

LPSOLF � XQ� ″HIHFW� SUH ″ negativ; este vorba de un efect de

vânzare-vQFDVDUH�úL�FXPS UDUH-SODW ��FDUH�vQU XW HúWH�VROGXO��vQ�

H[SUHVLH� E QHDVF �� DO� EDODQ HORU� H[WHUQH� GH� SO L� úL� vQFDV UL��

GDF � YROXPXO� IL]LF� DO� VFKLPEXULORU� VH� S VWUHD] � FRQVWDQW�� vQ�

DFHVW�FD]�HVWH�HYLGHQW�F �SO LOH�SUHVXSXVH�GH�LPSRUW�FUHVF�PDL�

UHSHGH� GHFkW� vQFDV ULOH� GLQ� H[SRUW�� DVWIHO� F � VROGXO� EDODQ HL�

FRPHUFLDOH�GH�SO L�VH�GHJUDGHD] ��HIHFWXO�DU�IL�IDYRUDELO�numai

în cazul în care importurile s-DU� GLPLQXD� IL]LF�� DGLF � GDF �

HODVWLFLWDWHD�ORU�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�SUH XO�DU�IL�PDUH�

Page 41: Modelare Cap 12

(ii) FUHúWHUHD� SUH XOXL� UHODWLY� DO� LPSRUWXULORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� SUH XULOH�

SURGXVHORU�QD LRQDOH�úL�UHGXFHUHD�SUH XOXL�UHODWLY�DO�H[SRUWXULORU�

în rapoUW� FX� SUH XULOH� SURGXVHORU� VWU LQH� LPSOLF � XQ� ″efect de

volum″ pozitiv; este vorba de un efect de substituire a

SURGXVHORU�� FDUH�� SH� GH� R� SDUWH�� vQVHDPQ �GLPLQXDUHD� SH� SLD D�

LQWHUQ � D� FHUHULL� GH� SURGXVH� GH� LPSRUW� vQ� IDYRDUHD� FHORU�

QD LRQDOH� GDWRULW � HYROX LHL� QHIDYRUDELOH� D� SUH XULORU� SHQWUX�

SULPHOH�� LDU�� SH� GH� DOW � SDUWH�� vQVHDPQ � FUHúWHUHD� SH� SLD D�

H[WHUQ � D� FHUHULL� GH� SURGXVH� GH� LPSRUW� �DGLF � GH� SURGXVH�

IDEULFDWH� GH� HFRQRPLD� FH� D� SUDFWLFDW� GHSUHFLHUHD�PRQHWDU �� vQ�

IDYRDUHD� FHORU� GH� DOW � SURYHQLHQ �� GDWRULW � HYROX LHL�

QHIDYRUDELOH� D� SUH XULORU� SHQWUX� DFHDVWD� GLQ� XUP �� HODVWLFLWDWHD�

H[SRUWXOXL�úL�LPSRUWXOXL�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�SUH XO�VW ��úL�vQ�DFHVW�FD]��OD�

baza mecanismului descris mai sus.

6HQVXO� PRGLILF ULL� EDODQ HL� �FRPHUFLDOH� VDX� GH� SO L���

rezultat prin însumarea ″HIHFWXOXL�SUH ″ cu ″efectul de volum″ este

GDW� GH� UDSRUWXO� GH� RUGLQH� vQWUH� YDORULOH� DEVROXWH�� DOH� FHORU� GRX �

efecte:

− VROGXO� EDODQ HL� VH� vPEXQ W HúWH� GDF �� vQ� YDORDUH� DEVROXW ��

″efectul de volum″ este mai mare decât ″HIHFWXO�SUH ″;

− VROGXO�EDODQ HL�VH�vQU XW HúWH�vQ�VLWXD LD�LQYHUV �

Page 42: Modelare Cap 12

(YROX LD� VROGXOXL� EDODQ HL� VXE� LPSDFWXO� FHORU� GRX � HIHFWH�

PDUFKHD] �GRX �PRPHQWH�

− la momentul UNU apare o deteriorare ca rezultat al ″efectului

GH�SUH ″�FDUH�VH�LQVWDOHD] �PDL�UHSHGH�GHFkW�″efectul de volum″,

DGLF �Dre un caracter ″imediat″;

− la momentul DOI apare o ameliorare, ca rezultat al ″efectului de

volum″��FDUH�DUH�XQ�HIHFW�GH�GHUXODUH�SURJUHVLY �

Grafic ″vorbind″��HVWH�R�HYROX LH�GH�WLSXO�FXUEHL�8�

2�HYROX LH�IDYRUDELO �HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW �GH�HODVWLFLWDWHD-SUH a

H[SRUWXULORU�úL�LPSRUWXULORU��FX�FkW�DFHVWHD�VXQW�PDL�HODVWLFH��FX�DWkW�

HIHFWXO� IDYRUDELO�VH� LQVWDOHD] �PDL�UHSHGH��FX�FkW�DFHVWHD�VXQW�PDL�

LQHODVWLFH�� FX� DWkW� HIHFWXO� QHIDYRUDELO� GXUHD] � PDL� PXOW��

3UHVXSXQkQG�XQ�HFKLOLEUX�LQL LDO�FDUDFWHUL]DW�SULQWU-o RIHUW �SHUIHFW�

HODVWLF ��FRQGL LD�OLPLW �SHQWUX�FD�EDODQ D�FRPHUFLDO �V �VH�UHGUHVH]H�

HVWH�FD�VXPD�FHORU�GRX �HODVWLFLW L�V �ILH�VXSUDXQLWDU �

PXPX

XXEcu ,1EE XMX ∆

∆=>+ �úL� (0 0

30 30

# = ∆∆

unde:

EX = elasticitatea-SUH �D�H[SRUWXOXL

EM = elasticitatea-SUH a importului

∆� �RSHUDWRU�GH�YDULD LH

Page 43: Modelare Cap 12

3;� �QLYHOXO�SUH XULORU�GH�H[SRUW

30� �QLYHOXO�SUH XULORU�GH�LPSRUW

3UDFWLFD� GHSUHFLHULL� PRQHWDUH�� DúD� FXP� DPLQWHDP�� HVWH� R�

P VXU � FX� FDUDFWHU� SXQFWXDO� SHQWUX� ″vQV Q WRúLUHD″ efectelor

VFKLPEXULORU� FRPHUFLDOH� FX� VWU LQ WDWHD�� 5HXúLWD� HL� GH� GXUDW �

SUHVXSXQH� OLPLWDUHD� FHUHULL� LQWHUQH� SHQWUX� SURGXVHOH� DORJHQH� úL�

FRQWUROXO� HYHQWXDOHORU� SXVHXUL� LQIOD LRQLVWH�� DGLF � R� SROLWLF �

FRPSOHPHQWDU �GH�VWDELOLWDWH�vQ�HFRQRPLD�UHDO �

12.2.2. Modelul IS-LM-ExIm

Modelul IS-LM-ExIm este un model al unei economii

″deschise″�� DGLF � vQWUH LQkQG� UHOD LL� FRPHUFLDOH� FX� UHVWXO� ″lumii″.

″Deschiderea″�HVWH�LQWURGXV �SULQ�FXUED�H[SRUW-import (ExIm).

12.2.2.1. Curba export-import

Curba export-LPSRUW� HVWH� UHSUH]HQWDUHD� PXO LPLL� GH�

FRPELQD LL�SHUHFKL�GXEOHWH� GH� Iorma (venit, rata dobânzii), cu

SURSULHWDWHD�F �SHUPLW�HFKLOLEUDUHD�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�

( ) ( ){([ < W ; 0 %N ; <H FVU,P � � � � �= − + = =0 ��; �

( ) ( )}0 0 < FVU= � � �%N %N U � UH � FV∆ .

Page 44: Modelare Cap 12

)RUPDOL]DUHD� GHILQL LHL� FXUEHL� ([,P� HVWH� UHOHYDQW �� GDU�

LQFRPSOHW � GHRDUHFH� QX� VH� UHIHU � H[SOLFLW� OD� FHLODO L� LQdicatori ai

PRGHOXOXL� �YHQLW�� FRQVXP�� LQYHVWL LL� HWF�� FDUH� YRU� IL� LQWURGXúL�

similar modelului economiei închise.

3HQWUX� D� IL� RSHUD LRQDO�� PRGHOXO� SUHVXSXQH� H[SOLFLWDUHD�

formelor generale ale indicatorilor ″deschiderii″� �YH]L� ������� úL�

(22.3)):

)XQF LD�GH�export VH�LQWURGXFH�vQ�IRUPD�OLQLDU �

; [ <H ] FVU= ∗ + ∗ , (24.1)

unde x = coeficientul marginal al exportului în raport cu produsul

final al ″restului lumii″;

z = coeficientul marginal al exportului în raport cu cursul real

de schimb.

)XQF LD�GH�LPSRUW�VH�LQWURGXFH�vQ�IRUPD�OLQLDU �

0 P < Q FVU= ∗ − ∗ , (24.2)

unde m = coeficientul marginal al importului în raport cu produsul

ILQDO�QD LRQDO�

n = coeficientul marginal al importului în raport cu cursul real

de schimb.

%DODQ D�GH�FDSLWDO�VH�LQWURGXFH�vQ�IRUPD�OLQLDU �

( )%N I U UH FV= ∗ − − ∆ , (24.3)

Page 45: Modelare Cap 12

XQGH�I� �FRHILFLHQWXO�EDODQ HL�GH�FDSLWDO�

%DODQ D�GH�SO L�se introduce conform (21):

% ; 0 %N= − + , (24.4.1)

SHQWUX�FDUH�VH�SUHVXSXQH�PHQ LQHUHD�vQ�HFKLOLEUX��DGLF

B = 0. (24.4.2)

6ROX LD� GH� HFKLOLEUX� VH� RE LQH� SULQ� VXEVWLWXLUHD� UHOD LLORU�

�������� ������� úL� ������� vQ� ���������� LQkQG� VHDPD� GH� FRQGL LD� GH�

HFKLOLEUX� ��������� úL� VH� H[SOLFLWHD] � vQ� YDULDELOD� UHSUH]HQWkQG� UDWD�

GREkQ]LL�SHQWUX�SODVDPHQWHOH�vQ�PRQHG �QD LRQDO ��VH�RE LQH�

( )

UP

I<

[ <H ] Q FVU I UH I FV

I= ∗ −

∗ + + ∗ − ∗ − ∗ ∆ (25)

Panta curbei ExIm este m/f>���0RWLYD LD�YDORULL�SR]LWLYH�D�

DFHVWHL� SDQWH� HVWH� GDW � GH� PHFDQLVPXO� PHQ LQHULL� HFKLOLEUXOXL�

EDODQ HL� GH� SO L�� DVXSUD� F UHLD� FHL� GRL� IDFWRUL� -� YHQLWXO� úL� UDWD�

GREkQ]LL� OD� SODVDPHQWHOH� vQ� PRQHG � QD LRQDO � -� DX� LQIOXHQ H�

contrarii. AstfeO�� FUHúWHUHD� YHQLWXOXL� GHSUHFLD] � VROGXO� EDODQ HL� GH�

SO L� �SULQ� LQWHUPHGLXO� FHOHL� FRPHUFLDOH��� SHQWUX� D� R� UHDGXFH� SH�

DFHDVWD�OD�HFKLOLEUX��WUHEXLH�P ULW �UDWD�GREkQ]LL�OD�SODVDPHQWHOH�vQ�

PRQHG �QD LRQDO �� UDW � FDUH�R� LQIOXHQ HD] �SULQWU-R� OHJ WXU �GH� WLS�

GLUHFW�� &HL� GRL� IDFWRUL� DSDU� vQ� DFHVW� PHFDQLVP� FX� YDULD LL� GH� WLS�

FUHúWHUH�� FHHD� FH� vQVHDPQ � F � OHJ WXUD� GLQWUH� HL� HVWH� GLUHFW �� ÌQ�

VWUXFWXUD� SDQWHL� LQWU � DWkW� FRHILFLHQWXO� PDUJLQDO� DO� LPSRUWXOXL� vQ�

Page 46: Modelare Cap 12

UDSRUW� FX� SURGXVXO� ILQDO� QD LRQDO� �P�� - despre care am afLUPDW� F �

este negativ (vezi (22.3)) -�FkW�úL�FRHILFLHQWXO�EDODQ HL�GH�FDSLWDO��I���

F UXLD� QX� L-DP�SUHFL]DW� VHPQXO� �YH]L� ��������� UH]XOW �� GLQ�FRQGL LD�

GH�QHQHJDWLYLWDWH�D�SDQWHL��F �I�< 0.

3DQWD� FXUEHL� ([,P� GHSLQGH� GH� VHQVLWLYLWDWHD�PLúF ULORU� GH�

capital (f). Valorile extreme ale pantei sunt date de valorile extreme

DOH�HODVWLFLW LL�FDSLWDOXOXL�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

− în cazul unui capital perfect elastic în raport cu rata dobânzii

OD� SODVDPHQWHOH� vQ� PRQHGD� QD LRQDO � �I→∞�� vQVHDPQ � F �

H[LVW �R�ILQDQ DUH�H[WHUQ �DEXQGHQW ��FDUH�SHUPLWH�VWDELOL]DUHD�

UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��FXUED�([,P�HVWH�RUL]RQWDO ��

− în cazul unui capital perfect inelastic în raport cu rata

GREkQ]LL�OD�SODVDPHQWHOH�vQ�PRQHGD�QD LRQDO ��I ���vQVHDPQ �

F � ILQDQ DUHD� H[WHUQ � HVWH� LQH[LVWHQW �� FXUED ExIm este

YHUWLFDO �

&XUED� ([,P� vPSDUWH� SODQXO� GH� FRRUGRQDWH� �<�U�� vQ� GRX �

zone:

− OD�GUHDSWD�FXUEHL�R�]RQ �GH�GHILFLW�H[WHUQ�vQ�FDUH��SHQWUX�R�UDW �

GDW � D� GREkQ]LL�� YHQLWXO� HVWH� SUHD� ULGLFDW� SHQWUX� D� SHUPLWH�

VROGXOXL�EDODQ HL�FRPHUFLDOH�V �FRPSHQVH]H�VROGXO�EDODQ HL�GH�

capital;

Page 47: Modelare Cap 12

− OD�VWkQJD�FXUEHL�R�]RQ �GH�H[FHGHQW�vQ�FDUH��SHQWUX�R�UDW �GDW �

D� GREkQ]LL�� YHQLWXO� HVWH� VXILFLHQW� GH� VF ]XW�� FHHD� FH� IDFH� FD�

VROGXO�EDODQ HL�FRPHUFLDOH�V �SRDW �FRPSHQVD�VROGXO�EDODQ HL�

capitalurilor.

Curba în sine este o ″]RQ ″ dH� GHPDUFD LH� DO� F UHL� ILHFDUH�

SXQFW�VHPQLILF �HFKLOLEUXO�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�

3R]L LRQDUHD�FXUEHL�([,P�vQ�SODQXO��<�U��HVWH�GHWHUPLQDW �GH�

factori externi, precum: rata dobânzii, cursul de schimb,

SUHGLF LLOH�DVXSUD�DFHVWXLD�GLQ�XUP ��FRQMXQFWXUD�H[WHUQ �ú� a. m.

d. Deplasarea curbei spre stânga, respectiv spre dreapta este

GHWHUPLQDW �GH�vQ VSULUHD��UHVSHFWLY�UHOD[DUHD�UHVWULF LLORU�H[WHUQH�

(i) VF GHUHD� SURGXVXOXL� ILQDO� DO� ″restului lumii″� �<H�� GHWHUPLQ �

reducerea exporturilor, ceea ce face ca deplasarea curbeL�V �VH�

IDF � VSUH� VWkQJD�� GXS � FXP� FUHúWHUHD� UHVSHFWLYXOXL� SURGXV�

duce la deplasarea curbei spre dreapta;

(ii) UHYDORUL]DUHD�PRQHGHL�QD LRQDOH��DGLF �VF GHUHD�FXUVXOXL� UHDO�

GH� VFKLPE� �FVU��� GXFH� OD� vQU XW LUHD� FRQGL LLORU� vQ� FDUH� VH�

GHUXOHD] � FRPHU XO� H[WHULRU�� GLPLQXkQG� VROGXO� EDODQ HL�

FRPHUFLDOH� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� DO� FHOHL� GH� SO L�� FHHD� FH� IDFH� FD�

GHSODVDUHD� FXUEHL� V � VH� IDF � VSUH� VWkQJD�� GXS � FXP�

GHYDORUL]DUHD�PRQHGHL�QD LRQDOH�GXFH�OD�GHSODVDUHD�FXUEHL

Page 48: Modelare Cap 12

spre dreapta;

(iii) FUHúWHUHD� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL� OD� SODVDPHQWHOH� vQ� PRQHGH� VWU LQH�

�UH�� GHWHUPLQ � XQ� UHIOX[� GH� FDSLWDOXUL�� DGLF � R� vQU XW LUH� D�

EDODQ HL�GH�SO L��FHHD�FH�IDFH�FD�GHSODVDUHD�FXUEHL�V �VH�IDF �

VSUH� VWkQJD�� GXS � FXP� UHGXFHUHD� UHVSHFWLYHL� UDWH� GXFH� OD�

deplasarea curbei spre dreapta;

(iv) VSHFXOD LLOH� ″a la baisse″� DVXSUD�PRQHGHL� QD LRQDOH�� DGLF � R�

YDULD LH� SR]LWLY � D� FXUVXOXL� GH� VFKLPE� DQWLFLSDW� DO� XQHL�

PRQHGH� VWU LQH� �∆cs>��� vQU XW HúWH� EDODQ D� GH� FDSLWDO� úL��

LPSOLFLW��SH�FHD�GH�SO L��FHHD�FH�IDFH�FD�GHSODVDUHD�FXUEHL�V �

VH�IDF �VSUH�VWkQJD��GXS �FXP�VSHFXOD LLOH�″a la hausse″ duc la

deplasarea curbei spre dreapta.

12.2.2.2. &XUED�LQYHVWL LL-economii

Modulul IS al modelului economiei ″deschise″ include

SDWUX� IXQF LL� GH� FRPSRUWDPHQW� �FRQVXP�� LQYHVWL LL�� LPSRUW� úL�

H[SRUW��úL�R�HFXD LH�GH�EDODQ ��XWLOL]DUHD�SURGXVXOXi final).

)XQF LD� GH� FRQVXP� se introduce similar modelului

HFRQRPLHL�vQFKLVH��YH]L�FDSLWROXO���������UHOD LD������

( )& F < 7Q &= ∗ − + 0 (26.1)

Page 49: Modelare Cap 12

)XQF LD� GH� LQYHVWL LL� se introduce similar modelului

economiei închise (YH]L�FDSLWROXO���������UHOD LD������

, D < E U ,= ∗ − ∗ + 0 (26.2)

)XQF LD�GH�LPSRUW�HVWH�FHD�SUHFL]DW �SULQ�UHOD LD��������

)XQF LD�GH�H[SRUW��HVWH�FHD�SUHFL]DW �SULQ�UHOD LD��������

(FXD LD�GH�EDODQ �a produsului ILQDO�HVWH�LQWURGXV �VLPLODU�

PRGHOXOXL� UHGXV� DO� OXL� .H\QHV� SHQWUX� HFRQRPLD� GHVFKLV � �YH]L�

FDSLWROXO������������UHOD LLOH�������úL��������

< & , * ; 0= + + + − (26.3)

ÌQ�SOXV��SHQWUX�FKHOWXLHOLOH�JXYHUQDPHQWDOH��*��úL�LPSR]LWele

QHWH��7Q��VH�DVXP �

G = G0��úL��7Q� �70 (26.4)

6ROX LD� GH� HFKLOLEUX� VH� GHWHUPLQ � SULQ� VXSOLQLUHD� UHOD LLORU�

�������������������������������úL��������vQ�HFXD LD�GH�EDODQ ��������

úL� H[SOLFLWDUHD� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD� dobânzii la plasamentele în

PRQHGD�QD LRQDO ��6H�RE LQH�H[SUHVLD�FXUEHL�,6��úL�DQXPH�

( )U

F D P

E<

& , * F 7 [ <H ] Q FVU

E= −

− − +∗ +

+ + − ∗ + ∗ + + ∗1 0 0 0 0

(27)

3DQWD�FXUEHL�,6�HVWH�QHJDWLY ��GDU�� vQ�YDORDUH�DEVROXW ��HVWe

PDL�PLF �GHFkW�vQ�FD]XO�HFRQRPLHL�vQFKLVH�

Page 50: Modelare Cap 12

1 1− − +

<− −F D P

E

F D

E

GDWRULW � FRHILFLHQWXOXL� PDUJLQDO� DO� LPSRUWXULORU� vQ� UDSRUW� FX�

venitul (m<0). De aceea, impactul venitului asupra ratei dobânzii

este negativ, dDU�GLPLQXDW�ID �GH�FD]XO�HFRQRPLHL�vQFKLVH��OXFUX�

H[SOLFDELO� SULQ� FRQWULEX LD� DGXV � GH� UHOD LLOH� FRPHUFLDOH� FX�

H[WHULRUXO�� $FHVW� PHFDQLVP� GH� DWHQXDUH� D� HIHFWXOXL� PRGLILF ULL�

YHQLWXOXL� GLQ� FDX]D� HIHFWXOXL� FRQWUDU� DO� UHOD LLORU� FRPHUFLDOH� FX�

exteriorul este denumit ″fuga″ în importuri.

3R]L LRQDUHD� FXUEHL� ,6� HVWH� GHWHUPLQDW � GH� H[SRUWXUL��

importuri, produsul final al restului lumii, cursul monedei

QD LRQDOH� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� DO� FHORU� VWU LQH�� 'HSODVDUHD� FXUEHL� VSUH�

VWkQJD�� UHVSHFWLY� GUHDSWD�� HVWH� GHWHUPLQDW � GH� VHQVXO�PRGLILF ULL�

acestor factori:

(i) GDF � H[SRUWXULOH� FUHVF�� DWXQFL� SURGXVXO� QD LRQDO� FUHúWH�� LDU�

GDF � UDWD� GREkQ]LL� QX� VH� PRGLILF �� UH]XOW � R� GHSODVDUH� VSUH�

GUHDSWD� D� FXUEHL�� GXS � FXP� GLPLQXDUHD� H[SRUWXULORU�

GHSODVHD] �FXUED�VSUH�VWkQJD�

(ii) GDF � LPSRUWXULOH� VFDG�� DWXQFL� SURGXVXO� QD LRQDO� FUHúWH� úL��

S VWUkQG� FRQVWDQ D� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� FXUED� VH� GHSODVHD] � VSUH�

GUHDSWD�� GXS � FXP� FUHúWHUHD� LPSRUWXULORU� GHSODVHD] � FXUED�

spre stânga;

Page 51: Modelare Cap 12

(iii) GDF � SURGXVXO� ILQDO� DO� ″restului lumii″� FUHúWH�� DWXQFL�

H[SRUWXULOH� FUHVF� úL�� FRQIRrm (i), deplasarea curbei se face

VSUH�GUHDSWD��GXS �FXP��GDF �UHVSHFWLYXO�SURGXV�VFDGH��FXUED�

VH�GHSODVHD] �VSUH�VWkQJD�

(iv) GDF � PRQHGD� QD LRQDO � VH� GHYDORUL]HD] �� DWXQFL� VH� SURGXFH�

FUHúWHUHD�FXUVXOXL�UHDO�GH�VFKLPE�FDUH�PLFúRUHD] �LPSRUWXULOH�

úL��FRQIRUP� �LL��� FXUED�VH�GHSODVHD] �VSUH�GUHDSWD��GXS �FXP�

UHYDORUL]DUHD� PRQHGHL� QD LRQDOH� GHWHUPLQ � R� GHSODVDUH� D�

curbei spre stânga.

12.2.2.3. Curba cerere-RIHUW �GH�EDQL

Modelul LM al economiei ″deschise″� LQFOXGH�R� IXQF LH� GH�

FRPSRUWDPHQW��FHUHUH�GH�EDQL���R�HFXD LH�GH�FRPSR]L LH��RIHUWD�GH�

EDQL��úL�R�HFXD LH�GH�EDODQ ��HFKLOLEUXO�SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU ���

)XQF LD� FHUHULL� GH� EDQL� se introduce similar modelului

HFRQRPLHL�vQFKLVH��YH]L�FDSLWROXO����������UHOD LD�������

0G O < O U /= ∗ − ∗ +1 2 0 , (28.1)

XQGH�0G�HVWH�FHUHUHD�GH�EDQL��UHVWXO�QRWD LLORU�S VWUkQGX-se.

(FXD LD�GH�FRPSR]L LH�D�RIHUWHL�GH�EDQL�S VWUHD] �FDUDFWHUXO�

H[RJHQ� DO� DFHVWHLD�� GDU� vL� DGDXJ � FRPSRQHQWD� UH]XOWDW � GLQ�

UHOD LLOH�HFRQRPLFH�FX�H[WHULRUXO� �FRPHU XO�H[WHUQ�úL�SDUWLFLSDUHD�

Page 52: Modelare Cap 12

la piD D�FDSLWDOXULORU���úL�DQXPH�UH]HUYHOH�YDOXWDUH�QD LRQDOH�QRWDWH�

FX�5��UH]XOW �

Ms = M0 + R, (28.2)

unde Ms este oferta de bani.

(FXD LD�GH�HFKLOLEUX�SH�SLD D�PRQHWDU �HVWH�

Md = Ms . (28.3)

6XEVWLWXLQG� UHOD LLOH� ������� -� ������� vQ� �������� VH� RE LQH�

HFXD LD�FXUEHL�/0�

UO

O<

0 5 /

O= ∗ −

+ −1

2

0 0

2

. (29)

3DQWD� FXUEHL� HVWH� VLPLODU � FHOHL� GLQ� PRGHOXO� HFRQRPLHL�

închise (vezi capitoluO� ��������� UHOD LD� ������� ÌQ� FD]XO� vQ� FDUH�

YROXPXO� VFKLPEXULORU� FRPHUFLDOH� HVWH� IL[�� SR]L LD� FXUEHL�� FD� úL�

PRGLILFDUHD� SR]L LHL� VDOH� GHSLQGH� GH� YDULD LD� UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH�

QD LRQDOH�

(i) GDF �UH]HUYHOH�FUHVF��FXUED�VH�GHSODVHD] �VSUH�GUHDSWD�

(ii) GDF �UH]HUYHOH�VFDG��FXUED�VH�GHSODVHD] �VSUH�VWkQJD�

12.2.3. (FKLOLEUXO�VLPXOWDQ�úL�YDULD LD�VD

Modelul economiei deschise IS-LM-ExIm pune în

FRQH[LXQH�WUHL�SLH H�

Page 53: Modelare Cap 12

− SLD D�LQWHUQ ��D�EXQXULORU�úL�VHUYLFLLORU�

− SLD D�PRQHWDU �

− SLD D� H[WHUQ �� vQJOREkQG� VFKLPEXULOH� FRPHUFLDOH� H[WHUQH� úL�

SLD D�GH�FDSLWDO�

(FKLOLEUXO�FRQFRPLWHQW�SH�FHOH�WUHL�SLH H�HVWH�GDW�GH�SXQFWXO�

GH� LQWHUVHF LH� D� FHORU� WUHL� FXUEH�� FDUDFWHUL]DW� SULQ� QLYHOXO� GH�

HFKLOLEUX� DO� YHQLWXOXL� úL� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL�� 2� vQVHPQ WDWH� DSDUWH�

pentru aceste nivele de echilibru o are raportul de ordine între

SDQWHOH� FXUEHORU� /0� úL� ([,P�� GHWHUPLQDW� GH� VHQVLWLYLWDWHD� UDWHL�

dobânzii în raport cu cererea de bani (l2��úL�vQ�UDSRUW�FX�IOX[XO�GH�

capitaluri (f).

6WDUHD� VFKLPEXULORU� H[WHUQH� GHWHUPLQ �� OD� UkQGXO� HL�� VHQVXO�

de deplasare a punctului de echilibru.

3HQWUX� VLWXD LD� vQ� FDUH� YROXPXO� VFKLPEXULORU� HVWH� IL[��

DMXVWDUHD� SXQFWXOXL� GH� HFKLOLEUX� VH� SRDWH� HIHFWXD� SULQ� YDULD LD�

UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH� QD LRQDOH�� 'DF � VFKLPEXULOH� H[WHUQH� VH�

VROGHD] � FX� XQ� H[FHGHQW�� DFHDVWD� vQVHDPQ � FUHúWHUHD� UH]HUYHORU

YDOXWDUH�� FDUH� LPSOLF � R� FUHúWHUH� D� RIHUWHL� GH� EDQL�� DGLF � R�

GHSODVDUH� D� FXUEHL� /0� VSUH� GUHDSWD�� FHHD� FH� vQVHDPQ �FUHúWHUHD�

YHQLWXULORU�� 'DF � VFKLPEXULOH� H[WHUQH� VH� VROGHD] � FX� XQ� GHILFLW��

atunci se ajunge la reducerea venitului.

Page 54: Modelare Cap 12

3HQWUX� VLWXD LD� vQ� FDUH� volumul schimburilor externe este

variabil, ajustarea punctului de echilibru se poate efectua prin

YDULD LD�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE��'DF �VFKLPEXULOH�H[WHUQH�VH�VROGHD] �

FX� XQ� H[FHGHQW�� DFHDVWD� vQVHDPQ � FUHúWHUHD� FXUVXOXL� GH� VFKLPE��

FDUH�GHSODVHD] �FXUEHOH�,6�úi ExIm spre stânga ″evitând″�FUHúWHUHD�

YHQLWXOXL�� 'DF � VFKLPEXULOH� H[WHUQH� VH� VROGHD] � FX� XQ� GHILFLW��

atunci se poate evita reducerea venitului.

9DULD LD�SXQFWXOXL�GH�HFKLOLEUX�VH�SRDWH�RE LQH�SULQ�SROLWLFL�

monetare sau prin politici bugetare.

12.2.3.1. Politici monetare de echilibrul

3ROLWLFLOH� PRQHWDUH� GH� VXV LQHUH� D� FUHúWHULL� HFRQRPLFH�

SUHVXSXQ�DF LRQDUHD�SULQ�RIHUWD�GH�EDQL��ILJXUD�����

6LWXD LD�LQL LDO �HVWH�UHSUH]HQWDW �SULQ�FXUEH�FX�LQGLFH����FDUH�

GHWHUPLQ �FD�HFKLOLEUX�LQL LDO�SXQFWXO�$��DOH�F UXL�FRRUGRQate sunt

(Y0,r0). Trecerea întru-XQ�DOW�SXQFW�GH�HFKLOLEUX�HVWH�UHSUH]HQWDW �

SULQ�PRGLILF UL� DOH� FXUEHORU� LQL LDOH��PDUFDWH�FX� LQGLFHOH���� úL� VH�

poate realiza în cazul în care schimburile comerciale sunt fixe sau

variabile.

În cazul volumului fix al schimburilor comerciale (ExIm =

IL[��� HILFLHQ D� UH]XOWDW � HVWH� UHGXV � GHRDUHFH� UH]HUYHOH� YDOXWDUH�

Page 55: Modelare Cap 12

VFDG�� 3XQFWXO� GH� HFKLOLEUX� VH� GHSODVHD] � GLQ� $� VSUH� &�� DSRL�

revine.

3ROLWLFD� PRQHWDU � HVWH� LQHILFLHQW �� vQ� VHQVXO� FUHúWHULL�

HFRQRPLFH��GDWRULW �YDULD LLORU�LQWHUYHQLWH� vQ�H[SUHVLD�E QHDVF �D�

VFKLPEXULORU� FX� H[WHULRUXO�� YDULD LL� FDUH� FRPSHQVHD] � VWLPXOLL�

interni.

3ROLWLFD�GH�VXV LQHUH�PRQHWDU �vQVHDPQ �FUHúWHUHD�RIHUWHL�GH�

EDQL�� DGLF � GHSODVDUHD� VSUH� GUHDSWD� D� FXUEHL� /0� �ILJXUD� �����

2IHUWD� VSRULW � GH� EDQL� GLPLQXHD] � UDWD� GREkQ]LL� FDUH� JHQHUHD] �

GRX �HIHFWH�

− ″fuga″� FDSLWDOXULORU� vQ� H[WHULRU�� VSUH� SLH H� XQGH� UHPXQHUDUHD�

este mai mare;

− FUHúWHUHD�LQYHVWL LLORU�úL�D�YHQLWXOXL�QD LRQDO�

3ULPXO� HIHFW� vQVHDPQ � XQ� UHIOX[� GH� FDSLWDOXUL�� DO� GRLOHD� R�

GHWHULRUDUH�D�EDODQ HL�FRPHUFLDOH��DGLF ��SULQ�FXPXO��GHWHULRUDUHD�

EDODQ HL�GH�SO L��1RXO�HFKLOLEUX�HVWH� UHSUH]HQWDW�SULQ�SXQFWXO�&��

LQWHUVHF LD�FXUEHORU�,61�úL�/01 pe curba ExIm. Noul echilibru ar fi

SRVLELO�GDF �YROXPXO�VFKLPEXULORU�H[WHUQH�QX�DU�IL�IL[��ÌQ�DFHDVW �

VLWXD LH� XQD� GLQ� FRQVHFLQ HOH� DFHVWXL� QRX� HFKLOLEUX� DU� IL�

GLPLQXDUHD�UH]HUYHORU�YDOXWDUH�QD LRQDOH��FD�UH]XOWDW�DO�GHILFLWXOXL�

comercial. De aceea noul echilibru nu este fezabil. Deficitul

Page 56: Modelare Cap 12

FRPHUFLDO� GXFH� OD� GLPLQXDUHD�PDVHL�PRQHWDUH� �DGLF � GHSODVDUHD�

spre stânga a curbei LM), ceea ce are ca efect diminuarea

YHQLWXOXL�SkQ �OD�QLYHOXO�HFKLOLEUXOXL�LQL LDO�

$XVWHULWDWHD� PRQHWDU � SURGXFH� GHSODV UL� RSXVH�� vQFKHLDWH�

vQV �FX�UHYHQLUHD�OD�SXQFWXO�LQL LDO�GH�HFKLOLEUX��GLPLQXDUHD�RIHUWHL�

de bani (cu deplasarea lui LM spre stângD��� FUHúWHUHD� UDWHL�

GREkQ]LL�úL�UHGXFHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��DPHOLRUDUHD�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�

În cazul volumului variabil al schimburilor comerciale

�([,P� � YDULDELO��� HILFLHQ D� UH]XOWDW � HVWH� PD[LP �� GHWHUPLQDW �

fiind de deprecierea cursului de schimb. Astfel, curba ExIm0 se

GHSODVHD] �vQ�SR]L LD�([,P1, iar curba IS0�vQ�SR]L LD�,61. Echilibrul

WUHFH� GLQ�$� vQ�&� úL� DSRL� vQ�%�� GH� FRRUGRQDWH� �<1,r1), reflectând

FUHúWHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��<1>Y0.

r IS0 IS1 LM0 LM1

A ExIm0

r0 ExIm1

r1 B C

Y0 Y1 Y

)LJ�����3ROLWLFL�PRQHWDUH�GH�VXV LQHUH�D echilibrului

Page 57: Modelare Cap 12

3ROLWLFD� PRQHWDU � HVWH� HILFLHQW �� vQ� VHQVXO� FUHúWHULL�

HFRQRPLFH��GDWRULW �IOH[LELOLW LL�VFKLPEXULORU�H[WHUQH�

3ROLWLFD�GH�VXV LQHUH�PRQHWDU �vQVHDPQ �FUHúWHUHD�RIHUWHL�GH�

bani (deplasarea curbei LM spre dreapta, figura 60). Potrivit

mecaniVPXOXL�GHVFULV�PDL�VXV��VH�SURGXFH�XQ�GHILFLW�DO�EDODQ HL�GH�

SO L� FDUH� JHQHUHD] � GHSUHFLHUHD� PRQHWDU �� &D� UH]XOWDW��

H[SRUWXULOH�WLQG�V �FUHDVF ��LDU�LPSRUWXULOH�V �VFDG ��FX�FRQGL LD�FD�

HODVWLFLW LOH� -� SUH � DIHUHQWH� V � ILH� DGHFYDWH�� $FHDVWD� P UHúWH�

cererHD�GH�SURGXVH�QD LRQDOH��GHSODVDUHD�FXUEHL�,6�VSUH�GUHDSWD��úL�

DPHOLRUHD] �FRQGL LLOH�GH�HFKLOLEUX�H[WHUQ��DGLF �GHSODVHD] �FXUED�

ExIm spre stânga). Noul punct de echilibru, B, este caracterizat

nu numai printr-XQ�YHQLW�PDL�PDUH��GDU�úL�SULQWU-o rata de doEkQG �

PDL�PLF �úL�SULQWU-un sold extern favorabil.

$XVWHULWDWHD� PRQHWDU � �GHSODVDUHD� OXL� /0� VSUH� VWkQJD��

IDYRUL]HD] � R� UHYDORUL]DUH� PRQHWDU �� FDUH� GHWHULRUHD] � VROGXO�

FRPHUFLDO�úL�FHUHUHD�GH�SURGXVH�QD LRQDOH��GHSODVDUHD�VSUH�VWkQJD�

D�FXUEHORU�([,P�úL�,6�, generând un echilibru caracterizat printr-o

SURGXF LH�PDL�PLF �

0RWLYD LD� HILFLHQ HL� SROLWLFLL� PRQHWDUH� vQ� FD]XO� YROXPXOXL�

YDULDELO�DO�VFKLPEXULORU�H[WHUQH�UH]LG �vQ�

Page 58: Modelare Cap 12

− UHJ VLUHD�VXUSOXVXOXL�GH�PDV �PRQHWDU �vQ�UH]HUYHOH�YDOXWDUH��

ceea ce exclude fenomenul de compensare între componentele

structurale ale acesteia;

− HYROX LD� SURGXF LHL� vQ� DFHODúL� VHQV� FX� PDVD� PRQHWDU �� VXE�

LQIOXHQ D�YDULD LHL�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE��úL�� LPSOLFLW��D�VROGXOXL�

EDODQ HL� GH� SO L��� HIHFW� FH� VH� SURGXFH� FX� FHUWLWXGLQH� GDF �

elasticitatea -� SUH � D� FRPHU XOXL� H[WHUQ� HVWH� VXILFLHQW� GH�

ULGLFDW � �H[SRUWXO�LPSRUWXO� VXQW� HODVWLFH� OD� PRGLILF ULOH� GH�

SUH ��

12.2.3.2. Politici bugetare de echilibru

3ROLWLFLOH� EXJHWDUH� GH� VXV LQHUH� D� FUHúWHULL� HFRQRPLFH�

SUHVXSXQ� DF LRQDUHD� SULQ� FKHOWXLHOLOH� JXYHUQDPHQWDOH sau prin

LPSR]LWH�úL�VH�SRW�UHDOL]D�ILH�vQ�FD]XO�XQRU�FDSLWDOXUL�SX LQ�PRELOH�

(figura 61), fie în cazul unor capitaluri mobile (figura 62), iar

ILHFDUH�GLQ�FD]XUL�SRDWH�SUHVXSXQH�ILH�FRQVWDQ D��ILH�YDULDELOLWDWHD�

VFKLPEXULORU� H[WHUQH�� 3R]L LD� LQL LDO � D� FXUEHORU� HVWH�PDUFDW � FX�

LQGLFHOH����LDU�SR]L LLOH�XOWHULRDUH��FX�LQGLFLL���úL���

,QFLGHQ D� SROLWLFLL� EXJHWDUH� DVXSUD� YHQLWXOXL� GHSLQGH� GH�

JUDGXO� GH� PRELOLWDWH� D� FDSLWDOXULORU� �I��� 6XV LQHUHD� FUHúWHULL�

HFRQRPLFH�SULQ�SROLWLFL�EXJHWDUH� vQVHDPQ �FUHúWHUHD�FKeltuielilor

Page 59: Modelare Cap 12

JXYHUQDPHQWDOH� VDX�úL� UHGXFHUHD� ILVFDOLW LL�� FHHD� FH� GHSODVHD] �

spre dreapta curba IS.

&D]XO� FDSLWDOXULORU� SX LQ� PRELOH este caracterizat prin

DFHHD� F � SDQWD� FXUEHL� ([,P� HVWH� PDL�PDUH� GHFkW� D� FXUEHL� /0��

DGLF �I�HVWH�PLF�

'DF �YROXPXO�VFKLPEXrilor este fix (ExIm = fix), iar oferta

GH�EDQL�YDULD] ��/0� �YDULDELO���HILFLHQ D�UH]XOWDW �HVWH�UHGXV �GLQ�

FDX]D�UHGXFHULL�UH]HUYHORU�YDOXWDUH��(FKLOLEUXO�WUHFH�GLQ�$�vQ�&�úL�

VH� IL[HD] � vQ� %� �GDWRULW � WUHFHULL� FXUEHL� /0� GLQ� /00 în LM1),

UH]XOWkQG� R� FUHúWHUH� UHODWLY� PLF � D� YHQLWXOXL�� GDU� úL� D� UDWHL�

dobânzii.

r IS0 IS1 IS2 ExIm0 ExIm1

LM1

r1 B LM0

r2 D

r0 C

A

Y0 Y1 Y2 Y

)LJ�����3ROLWLFD�EXJHWDU �GH�VXV LQHUH�D�HFKLOLEUXOXi vQ�FD]XO�FDSLWDOXULORU�SX LQ�PRELOH

Page 60: Modelare Cap 12

6XV LQHUHD�EXJHWDU �vQ�DFHVW�FD]�LPSOLF �R�GHWHULRUDUH�UHODWLY�

SXWHUQLF � D� VROGXOXL� EDODQ HL� GH� SO L�� ,HúLULOH� GH� GHYL]H�DIHUHQWH�

UHGXF� PDVD� PRQHWDU � �/0� VH� GHSODVHD] � VSUH� VWkQJD��� FHHD� FH�

contribuie la limitarea crHúWHULL�YHQLWXOXL�VDX�FKLDU� OD�GLPLQXDUHD�

VD��/D� OLPLW �� FkQG� I� � �� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� FXUED�([,P�HVWH�YHUWLFDO ��

SROLWLFD� EXJHWDU � HVWH� WRWDO� LQHILFLHQW � GLQ� FDX]D� GLPHQVLXQLL�

SLHUGHULORU� GH� GHYL]H�� FDUH� UHGXF� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL� SkQ � OD� QLYHOXO�

LQL LDO�DO�YHQLWXOXL��vQVR LW �vQV �GH�PDMRUDUHD�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�

'DF �YROXPXO�VFKLPEXULORU�HVWH�YDULDELO��([,P� �YDULDELO���

LDU� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL� HVWH� IL[ � �/0� � IL[��� HILFLHQ D� UH]XOWDW � HVWH�

PD[LP ��GDWRULW �GHSUHFLHULL�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE��(FKLOLEUXO�WUHFH�

GLQ�$� vQ�&� úL� VH� IL[HD] � vQ�'� �GDWRULW � WUHFHULL� FXUEHL�([,P�GLQ�

ExIm0 în ExIm1� úL� D� FXUEHL� ,6� GLQ� ,60 în IS1� úL� DSRL� vQ� ,62),

UH]XOWkQG�R�FUHúWHUH�PDL�PDUH�D�YHQLWXOXL�GHFkW�vQ�FD]XO�SUHFHGHQW�

OD�R�FUHúWHUH�PDL�PLF �D�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL�

6XV LQHUHD�EXJHWDU � vQ� DFHVW� FD]� �GHSOasarea spre dreapta a

FXUEHL� ,6�� GHWHUPLQ � PDL� vQWkL� R� FUHúWHUH� D� YHQLWXOXL� úL� D� UDWHL�

GREkQ]LL�� FDUH� DQWUHQHD] � R� GHSUHFLHUH� PRQHWDU �� FHHD� FH�

DPHOLRUHD] �FRQGL LLOH�VROGXOXL�H[WHUQ��GHSODVDUHD�VSUH�GUHDSWD�D

�FXUEHORU�([,P�úL�,6��úL�FRQWULEXLH�OD�FUHúWHUea venitului.

Page 61: Modelare Cap 12

Cazul capitalurilor mobile� HVWH� FDUDFWHUL]DW� SULQ� DFHHD� F �

SDQWD�FXUEHL�([,P�HVWH�PDL�PLF �GHFkW�D�FXUEHL�/0��DGLF �I�HVWH�

mare.

'DF � YROXPXO� IOX[XULORU� FRPHUFLDOH� HVWH� IL[� �([,P� � IL[���

LDU� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL� HVWH� YDULDELO � �/0� � YDULDELO��� HILFLHQ D�

UH]XOWDW � HVWH� PD[LP � GLQ� FDX]D� FUHúWHULL� UH]HUYHORU� YDOXWDUH��

(FKLOLEUXO� WUHFH� GLQ�$� vQ� %� úL� VH� IL[HD] � vQ� &� �GDWRULW � WUHFHULL�

curbei LM din LM0 în LM1��� UH]XOWkQG�R�FUHúWHUH�UHODWLY�PDUH�D�

YHQLWXOXL�ID �GH�R�FUHúWHUH�PDL�PLF �D�UDWHL�GREkQ]LL��de comparat

FX� SXQFWXO� GH� HFKLOLEUX� '� FH� UH]XOW � GLQ� YDULDELOLWDWHD�

schimburilor valutare).

r IS0 IS2 IS1 LM0 LM1

B ExIm1

r2 D ExIm0

r1 C

r0

A

Y0 Y2 Y1 Y

)LJ�����3ROLWLFL�EXJHWDUH�GH�VXV LQHUH�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL în cazul capitalurilor mobile

Page 62: Modelare Cap 12

6XV LQHUHD� EXJHWDU � vQ� DFHVW� FD]� LPSOLF � R� DPHOLRUDUH�

H[WHUQ �UHODWLY�SXWHUQLF �GDWRULW � LQWU ULORU�GH�FDSLWDO��$IOX[XO�GH�

FDSLWDO�P UHúWH�PDVD�PRQHWDU ��/0�VH�GHSODVHD] �VSUH�GUHDSWD���

FHHD� FH� HYLW � FUHúWHUHD� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL� úL� VWLPXOHD] � FUHúWHUHD�

SXWHUQLF �D�YHQLWXOXL��/D�OLPLW ��FkQG�I→∞, deci curba ExIm este

RUL]RQWDO ��SROLWLFD�EXJHWDU �HVWH�H[WUHP�GH�HILFLHQW �GLQ�FDX] �F �

UDWD� GREkQ]LL� QX� FUHúWH�� Dstfel încât efectul asupra venitului este

PD[LP��1RXO�SXQFW�GH�HFKLOLEUX�VH�J VHúWH�GHSODVDW�VSUH�GUHDSWD��

VXE� FXUED� ([,P� RUL]RQWDO �� )HQRPHQXO� DWHQX ULL� FUHúWHULL�

YHQLWXOXL� GDWRULW � FUHúWHULL� UDWHL� GREkQ]LL� HVWH� QXPLW� HYLF LXQH�

ILQDQFLDU .

'DF � YROXPXO� Iluxurilor comerciale este variabil (ExIm =

YDULDELO��� LDU� RIHUWD� GH� EDQL� HVWH� IL[ � �/0� � IL[��� HILFLHQ D�

UH]XOWDW �HVWH�UHGXV ��(FKLOLEUXO�WUHFH�GLQ�$�vQ�%�úL�VH�IL[HD] �vQ�'�

�GDWRULW �WUHFHULL�FXUEHL�([,P�GLQ�([,P0 în ExIm1, iar a curbei IS

din IS0 în IS1 úL� DSRL� vQ� ,62��� UH]XOWkQG� R� FUHúWHUH� PDL� PLF � D�

YHQLWXOXL�GHFkW� vQ� FD]XO�SUHFHGHQW� OD�R�FUHúWHUH�PDL�PDUH�D� UDWHL�

dobânzii.

6XV LQHUHD� EXJHWDU � vQ� DFHVW� FD]� DQWUHQHD] � R� UHYDORUL]DUH�

PRQHWDU �� FHHD� FH� GHWHULRUHD] � VROGXO� H[WHUQ� �GHSODVDUHD� VSUH�

stânga a�FXUEHORU�([,P�úL�,6��úL�FRQWULEXLH�OD�UHGXFHUHD�YHQLWXOXL�

Page 63: Modelare Cap 12

12.2.3.3. Efectele politicilor economice în modelul economiei

deschise

Efectele politicilor economice care pot fi promovate în

contextul modelului economiei deschise IS-LM-ExIm sunt

GLIHUHQ LDWH� GXS � WLSXO� SROLWLFLL� �PRQHWDU � VDX� EXJHWDU ��� GXS �

VHQVXO� DFHVWHLD� �VXV LQHUH�UHODQVDUH� VDX� DXVWHULWDWH�IUkQ ��� GXS �

GLQDPLVPXO�VFKLPEXULORU�H[WHUQH� �IL[H�VDX�YDULDELOH���FD�úL�GXS �

PRELOLWDWHD�FDSLWDOXULORU��SX LQ�PRELOH�VDX�PRELOH���

Tabelul 12

Schimburile comerciale externe Politici fixe variabile

Efectele politicii Eficacitatea politicii

Efectele politicii Eficacitatea politicii

1 2 3 4 5

I. MONETARE $&% '( ) *+, -,

2. austeritate

Timpul UNU: −

.

r,

/

Y − deteriorare B −

.

R Timpul DOI: −

.

Ms − revenire la , 0 1 *2 *3 -( 2 *+ * *4 2 Timpul UNU: −

/

r,

.

Y − ameliorare B −

/

R Timpul DOI: −

/

Ms − revenire la , 0 1 *2 *3 -( 2 *+ * *4 2

*+, 5 * 0 *, + 6 *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6

.

r,

/

Y − deficit extern − depreciere 78 +, 64 - −

/

X,

.

M −

/

Y în continuare − ameliorare B −

/

r,

.

Y − excedent extern − revalorizare 78 +, 64 - −

.

X,

/

M −

.

Y în continuare − deteriorare B

, 5 * 0 *, + 6

clar *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6

Page 64: Modelare Cap 12

1 2 3 4 5

II. BUGETARE $&% '( ) *+, -, a. capitaluri 9( *+ 78 3 *2,

Timpul UNU: −

.

r,

/

Y − deteriorare B −

.

R Timpul DOI: −

.

Ms − revenire Y la + *:, 2 ( 2 *+ * *4 2 0( -

majorat

clar *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6

.

r,

/

Y − depreciere 78 +, 64 - −

/ X,

. M

/ Y în continuare

, 5 * 0 *, + 6

b. capitaluri mobile 2. austeritate

a. capitaluri 9( *+ 78 3 *2, b. capitaluri mobile

Timpul UNU: −

.

r,

/

Y − ameliorare B −

/

R Timpul DOI: −

/ Ms

/ Y,

. r

Timpul UNU: −

/ r,

.

Y − ameliorare B −

/

R Timpul DOI: −

/

Ms −

/ ; 0 6 -, + *:, 2 ( 2*+ * *4 2 0( - diminuat Timpul UNU: −

/

r,

.

Y − deteriorare B −

.

R Timpul DOI: −

.

Ms −

. ;< * / r în continuare

ef* 0 *, + 6 relativ *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6 puternic *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6

.

r,

/

Y − revalorizare 78 +, 64 - −

.

X,

/

M −

. ; 0 6 -, + *:, 2 ( 2*+ * *4 2 0( - diminuat −

/

r,

.

Y − revalorizare 78 +, 64 - −

.

X,

/

M −

.

Y în continuare −

/

r,

.

Y − depreciere 78 +, 64 - −

/

X,

.

M −

/

Y 0 6 -, + *:, 2 ( 2*+ * *4 2 0( -

majorat

relativ *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6 puternic *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6 clar *+, 5 * 0 *, + 6

Page 65: Modelare Cap 12

6LQWH]D�FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU�DFHVWRU�SROLWLFL�úL�D�HIHFWHORU�ORU�HVWH�

SUH]HQWDW �vQ�WDEHOXO����

În tabelul 12 au fost folosite simbolurile utilizate în model:

U� �UDWD�GREkQ]LL�SH�SLD D�LQWHUQ

<� �SURGXVXO�ILQDO�QD LRQDO

%� �VROGXO�EDODQ HL�GH�SO L

5� �UH]HUYHOH�YDOXWDUH�QD LRQDOH

Ms = oferta de bani

X = export

M = import,

SUHFXP�úL�XQ�VLPERO�GH�FUHúWHUH�úL�XQXO�GH�UHGXFHUH�

Eficacitatea politLFLORU�D� IRVW�SULYLW �GH�SH�R�SR]L LH�YL]kQG�

FUHúWHUHD�HFRQRPLF ��vQ�VSH �D�SURGXVXOXL�ILQDO�QD LRQDO��DGLF �D�

YHQLWXULORU� DJHQ LORU� HFRQRPLFL� QD LRQDOL�� 6HQVXO� DFHVWHL�

HILFDFLW L� VH� SRDWH�PRGLILFD� GDF � VH� VFKLPE � SR]L LD��$VWIHO�� vQ�

cazul în care se urm UHúWH�R�WHPSRUL]DUH�D�FUHúWHULL�HFRQRPLFH�vQ�

FRQGL LLOH�XQRU�VFKLPEXUL�FRPHUFLDOH�H[WHUQH�YDULDELOH��R�SROLWLF �

GH�WLSXO�DXVWHULWDWH�PRQHWDU �HVWH�HYLGHQW�HILFLHQW �

'LYHUVLWDWHD� RELHFWLYHORU� GH� SROLWLF � HFRQRPLF � úL�

PRGLILFDUHD�ORU�vQ�WLPS�VROLFLW �PDQDgementului strategic un mix

de politici, o combinare de mai multe politici úL�� LPSOLFLW��

Page 66: Modelare Cap 12

utilizarea unor instrumente, metode, tehnici diferite pentru

DWLQJHUHD�DFHVWRUD��ÌQ�OHJ WXU �FX�″arsenalul″ metodologic utilizat,

H[LVW � SXQFWH� GH� YHGHUH� QXDQ DWH�� (FRnomistul Jan Tinbergen

FRQVLGHU �F �HVWH�UHFRPDQGDELO�V �ILH�XWLOL]DWH�DWkWHD�LQVWUXPHQWH�

LQGHSHQGHQWH� FkWH� RELHFWLYH� XUP ULWH� H[LVW �� LDU� 7K�� 0XQGHOO�

QXDQ HD] �F �ILHFDUH�LQVWUXPHQW�WUHEXLH�DIHFWDW�RELHFWLYXOXL�SHQWUX�

FDUH�HO�DUH�HILFLHQ D�UHODWLY �FHD�PDL�ULGLFDW �

Modelul IS-LM-([,P� FUHHD] � PDQDJHULORU� VWUDWHJLFL� úL�

FRQVLOLHULORU�VSHFLDOLúWLORU� SH� SUREOHPH� GH� PDFURHFKLOLEUX� úL�

FUHúWHUH� HFRQRPLF � SRVLELOLWDWHD� GH� D� DOHJH� vQWUH� RELHFWLYHOH�

LQWHUQH� úL� FHOH� H[WHUQH�� DVWIHO� vQFkW� V � VH� DGDSWH]H� SROLWLFLOH�

economice chiar unor obiective aparent neconcordante. Astfel, se

SRDWH� IRUPXOD� R� SROLWLF � PDFURHFRQRPLF � vQ� FDUH� RELHFWLYHOH�

LQWHUQH� V � ILH� XUP ULWH� SULQ� LQVWUXPHQWH� LQWHUQH�� vQ� FRQGL LLOH� vQ�

FDUH�VH�S VWUHD] �R�DQXPLW �DXWRQRPLH�D�SROLWLFLORU�FRQMXQFWXUDOH�

ID �GH�H[WHULRU�

Caracteristicile diferitelor politici financiar-monetare

FRQWXUHD] �R�DQXPLW �UHJXO �GH�DIHFWDUH a lor: politicile bugetare

sunt mai indicate pentru obiective vizând echilibrul intern, iar

politicile monetare pentru cel extern, deoarece LQIOXHQ HD] �

EDODQ D�GH�SO L�SULQ�UDWD�GREkQ]LL�

Page 67: Modelare Cap 12

$FHDVW � UHJXO �HVWH�QXDQ DW �QX�QXPDL�SULQ�″specializarea″

WLSXULORU� GH� SROLWLFL�� GDU� úL� SULQ� IDSWXO� F � VXJHUHD] � SRVLELOLWDWHD�

XWLOL] ULL� SROLWLFLORU� EXJHWDUH� úL� SHQWUX� RELHFWLYH� GH� HFKLOLEUX�

extern. AstfHO��R�VXV LQHUH�EXJHWDU ��GH�H[HPSOX��P UHúWH�SURGXVXO�

LQWHUQ��GDU� DIHFWHD] � � úL� VFKLPEXULOH� H[WHUQH� úL�� LPSOLFLW�� EDODQ D�

GH�SO L��'DF �HFRQRPLD�VH�FRQIUXQW �DWkW�FX�GH]HFKLOLEUH�LQWHUQH��

FkW� úL� FX� FHOH� H[WHUQH�� XWLOL]DUHD� H[FOXVLY � D� SROLWLFLL� EXJHWDUH�

JHQHUHD] �GLOHPD�RS LXQLL�vQWUH�FHOH�GRX �RELHFWLYH��UHHFKLOLEUDUHD�

H[WHUQ � VDX� LQWHUQ "� 'DF � HFRQRPLD� VXIHU � GH� XQ� GH]HFKLOLEUX�

FRPELQDW�� GH� GHILFLW� H[WHUQ� úL� JUDG� UHGXV�GH� RFXSDUH�D� IRU HL� GH�

PXQF �� VXV LQHUHD� EXJHWDU � DPHOLRUHD] � JUDGXO� GH� RFXSDUH�� GDU�

DJUDYHD] � GHILFLWXO� H[WHUQ�� ÌQ� DVWIHO� GH� FD]XUL� HVWH� UHFRPDQGDW�

PL[XO� GH� SROLWLFL�� FRPELQkQG� VXV LQHUHD� EXJHWDU � FX� R� SROLWLF �

PRQHWDU � FDUH� V � DPHOLRUH]H� GH]HFKLOLEUXO� H[WHUQ�� ÌQWUH� HIHFWHOH�

LQGXVH� GH� DVWIHO� GH� SROLWLFL� SRW� IL� LQFOXVH�� FKLDU� GDF � vQ� IRUPD

HIHFWHORU�DGLDFHQWH��FHOH�SULYLQG�UHHFKLOLEUDUHD�SLH LL�PXQFLL�

12.2.4. 0XOWLSOLFDWRULL�FUHúWHULL�vQ�HFRQRPLD�GHVFKLV

2� SULP � LSRWH] � FH� SRDWH� IL� IRUPXODW � UHIHULWRU� OD�

schimburile economice externe�HVWH�F �DFHVWHD�VXQW�fixe. Pentru a

determina mai lesne multiSOLFDWRULL� GH� FUHúWHUH� FH� GHFXUJ� GLQ�

Page 68: Modelare Cap 12

diferitele politici economice pe care le poate utiliza statul, se

IRUPXOHD] �FkWHYD�LSRWH]H�VLPSOLILFDWRUH�

− VH� FRQVLGHU � FRQVWDQ L� LQGLFDWRULL� OHJD L� GH� IDFWRULL� H[WHUQL�

�YHQLWXO� úL� UDWD� GREkQ]LL� SHQWUX� ″restul lumii″), cursul de

VFKLPE� úL� SUHGLF LLOH� SHQWUX� XQLL� LQGLFDWRUL�PDFURHFRQRPLFL�

�LPSR]LWHOH�QHWH�úL�FKHOWXLHOLOH�JXYHUQDPHQWDOH��

− exporturile sunt considerate ca date exogen, ceea ce

vQVHDPQ � F � vQ� ORFXO� UHOD LHL� ������� DSDUH�X = X0, unde X0

HVWH�YDORDUHD�GDW �H[RJen a exportului;

− IXQF LD� GH� LPSRUW� VH� FRQVLGHU � I U � FRPSRQHQWD� LQGXV � GH�

FXUVXO� GH� VFKLPE� UHDO�� FHHD�FH� vQVHDPQ �F � vQ� ORFXO� UHOD LHL�

(24.2) apare: 0 P <= ∗ �

− IXQF LD� EDODQ HL� GH� FDSLWDO� VH� FRQVLGHU � I U � FRPSRQHQWH�

induse de rata dobânzii pe piD D� PRQHGHORU� VWU LQH� úL� GH�

YDULD LD�FXUVXOXL�GH�VFKLPE�DQWLFLSDW��FHHD�FH�vQVHDPQ �F �vQ�

ORFXO�UHOD LHL��������DSDUH�� %N I U= ∗ �

Cu aceste ipoteze acceptate se rescrie modelul IS-LM-ExIm,

astfel:

(i) modulul IS:

( )& F < 7 &== ∗ − + 0 (30.1)

, D < E U ,= ∗ − ∗ + 0 (30.2)

Page 69: Modelare Cap 12

0 P <= ∗ (30.3)

< & , * ; 0= + + + − (30.4)

* *= 0 (30.5)

7Q 7Q= 0 (30.6)

; ;= 0 (30.7)

(ii) modulul LM:

0G O < O U /= ∗ − ∗ +1 2 0 (31.1)

0V 0 5= +0 (31.2)

0V 0G= (31.3)

(iii) modulul ExIm:

%F ; P <= − ∗0 (32.1)

%N I U= ∗ (32.2)

BkBcB += (32.3)

ÌQ� UHOD LD� GH� HFKLOLEUX� D� ILHF UXL� PRGXO� VH� VXEVWLWXLH�

H[SUHVLLOH� FRPSRQHQWHORU� DFHVWXLD�� VH� VHOHFWHD] apoi variabilele

IL[H�úL�VH�DSOLF �RSHUDWRUXO�GH�YDULD LH�∆��VH�RE LQH�

− SHQWUX�PRGXOXO�,6��XQGH�IL[H�VH�FRQVLGHU �LQYHVWL LLOH�DXWRQRPH�

(I0), consumul autonom (C0��úL�H[SRUWXO��;0), avem:

( )1 0 0− − + = − ∗ − ∗F D P < * F 7Q E U∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ (31.1)

Page 70: Modelare Cap 12

− pentru modulul LM, unde IL[ � VH� FRQVLGHU � FHUHUHD� DXWRQRP �

GH�PDV �PRQHWDU ��/0), avem:

∆ ∆ ∆ ∆0 5 O < O U0 1 2+ = ∗ − ∗ (31.2)

− pentru modulul ExIm, unde fix este exportul (X0), avem:

∆ ∆ ∆% P < I U= − ∗ + ∗ (31.3)

Caracterul de invariabilitate a schimburilor externe este

presupus de egalitatea:

∆B = ∆R. (31.4)

'LQ�FRPELQDUHD�FHORU�SDWUX�UHOD LL������-������VH�RE LQH�

( )1 1

20 0

20− − + +

+ ∗+

= − ∗ +

+F D P

O P E

O I< * F 7Q

E

O I0∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ,

(32)

HFXD LH� FDUH� H[SOLF � VSRUXO� GH� YHQLW� SH� VHDPD�GLIHULWHORU� WLSXUL� GH�

SROLWLFL� HFRQRPLFH�� SROLWLFD� EXJHWDU � �D� FKHOWXLHOLORU� EXJHWDUH���

SROLWLFD�ILVFDO ��SROLWLFD�PRQHWDU �

( )∆∆<

*F D P

O P E

O I0

1

2

1

1= − − + ++ ∗

+

(32.1)

( )∆∆<

7QF F D P

O P E

O I0

1

2

1

1= − ∗ − − + ++ ∗

+

(32.2)

Page 71: Modelare Cap 12

( )∆∆<

0

E

O IF D P

O P E

O I0 2

1

2

1

1=+

∗ − − + ++ ∗

+

(32.3)

ÌQ� VWUXFWXUD� ILHF UXLD� GLQWUH� FHL� WUHL� LQGLFDWRUL� VH� UHJ VHVF�

factorii de LQIOXHQ �GLQ�PRGHOXO�HFRQRPLHL�vQFKLVH���- c - a),

�FRPSOHWD L� GH� ″frâna″� FRPHU XOXL� H[WHULRU� �P�� H[SULPDW � GH�

vQFOLQD LD� PDUJLQDO � VSUH� LPSRUW�� GDU� úL� GH� ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU �

JHQHUDW � GH� SDUDPHWULL� �O1, l2� úL� E�� DL� IXQF LLORU� GH� FHUHUH�RIHUW �

PRQHWDU ��″Frâna″�ILQDQFLDU �DF LRQHD] �FRUHODW�FX�FHD�D�FRPHU XOXL�

H[WHULRU��vQ�FDUH��vQ�DIDUD�SDUDPHWUXOXL�P��HVWH�LQFOXV�úL�SDUDPHWUXO�I�

�vQFOLQD LD� PDUJLQDO � D� EDODQ HL� GH� FDSLWDOXUL� vQ� UDSRUW� FX� UDWD�

dobânzii).

3ROLWLFLOH� EXJHWDUH� �D� FKHOWXLHOLORU� EXJHWDUH� úL� ILVcale) sunt

puternic dependente de factorul f: cu cât acesta este mai mare, cu

atât ″frâna″� ILQDQFLDU � HVWH� PDL� VODE �� LDU� SROLWLFLOH�PDL� HILFLHQWH��

3HQWUX� FDSLWDOXUL� LPRELOH� �I� � ��� FHOH� GRX � SROLWLFL� VXQW� FHO� PDL�

SX LQ�HILFLHQWH��LDU�SHQWUX�FDSLWDOXUL�SHUfect mobile (f = ∞) sunt cele

mai eficiente.

3ROLWLFD� PRQHWDU � GHSLQGH� úL� HD� GH� IDFWRUXO� I�� GDU� LQYHUV�

GHFkW�SUHFHGHQWHOH��FX�FkW�I�HVWH�PDL��PDUH�FX�DWkW�SROLWLFD�PRQHWDU �

HVWH�PDL�SX LQ�HILFLHQW ��ÌQ�FD]XO�PRELOLW LL�SHUIHFWH�D�FDSLWDOXULORU�

Page 72: Modelare Cap 12

(f = ∞), mXOWLSOLFDWRUXO� PRQHWDU� HVWH� QXO�� R� UHODQVDUH� PRQHWDU �

DQWUHQHD] � R� LHúLUH� PDVLY � GH� FDSLWDOXUL�� FDUH� JHQHUHD] � R�

FRPSHQVDUH� FH� OLPLWHD] � �VDX� vPSLHGLF � FKLDU�� FUHúWHUHD�YHQLWXOXL��

GXS � FXP� DXVWHULWDWHD�PRQHWDU � DQWUHQHD] � LQWU UL� GH� FDSLWDOXUL� úL�

diminuarea venitului.

2� DOW � LSRWH] � SULYLQG� schimburile economice externe este

F � DFHVWHD� VXQW� variabile. În cazul schimburilor perfect flexibile

DMXVWDUHD� VH� HIHFWXHD] � SULQ� YDULD LD� FXUVXOXL�YDOXWDU� FX� RELHFWLYXO�

GH�S VWUDUH�D�VWDELOLW LL�UH]HUYHL�YDOXWDUH�(R) úL� GH� UHDOL]DUH� D� XQHL�

EDODQ H�GH�SO L�HFKLOLEUDWH��%� ����

0RGLILF ULOH�VSHFLILFH�FDUH�LQWHUYLQ�vQ�PRGHOXO�,6-LM-ExIm

sunt:

�L��PRGXOXO�,6��HFXD LD�GH�HFKLOLEUX�SUHLD�VROGXO�EDODQ HL�FRPHUFLDOH

������������������������%F��vQ�ORFXO�GLIHUHQ HL�FH�H[SULPD exportul net,

astfel încât devine:

( ) 0CTnYcC +−∗= (33.1)

, D < E U ,= ∗ − ∗ + 0 (33.2)

< & , * %F= + + + (33.3)

* *= 0 (33.4)

7Q 7Q= 0 (33.5)

(ii) PRGXOXO�/0�QX�VH�PRGLILF �úL�U PkQH�vQ�IRUPD�������-(31.3).

Page 73: Modelare Cap 12

(iii) modulul ExIm: include obiectivul dH�PHQ LQHUH�D�HFKLOLEUXOXL

���������������������������������EDODQ HL�GH�SO L�úL�GHYLQH�

%N I U= ∗ (34.1)

% %F %K= + = 0 (34.2)

În modulul IS se� FRQVLGHU � IL[H� FRQVXPXO� DXWRQRP� úL�

LQYHVWL LD� DXWRQRP �� DVWIHO� vQFkW� GLQ� UHOD LD� GH� HFKLOLEUX�� SULQ�

VXEVWLWXLUHD� � LQGLFDWRULORU�GHILQL L�SULQ�FHOHODOWH�HFXD LL� úL�DSOLFDUHD�

RSHUDWRUXOXL�GH�YDULD LH�∆��VH�RE LQH�

( )1 0 0− − = − ∗ − ∗ +F D < * F 7Q E U %F∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ (35.1)

În modulul LM VH�FRQVLGHU �IL[ �FHUHUHD�DXWRQRP �GH�PDV �

PRQHWDU �� SUHFXP� úL� UH]HUYD� YDOXWDU �� DVWIHO� vQFkW� GLQ� UHOD LD� GH�

HFKLOLEUX�� SULQ� VXEVWLWXLUHD� FHORUODO L� LQGLFDWRUL� GHILQL L� SULQ� UHVWXO�

HFXD LLORU�úL�DSOLFDUHD�RSHUDWRUXOXL�GH�YDULD LH�∆��VH�RE LQH�

∆ ∆ ∆0 O < O U0 1 2= ∗ − ∗ . (35.2)

'LQ�PRGXOXO�([,P�VH�RE LQH�

%F I U= − ∗ . (35.3)

'LQ�FRPELQDUHD�FHORU�WUHL�HFXD LL�UH]XOWDQWH�������-(35.3) se

RE LQH�

( )0

200

2

1 Ml

fbTncGY

l

lfbac1 ∆++∆∗−∆=∆

∗++−− , (36)

Page 74: Modelare Cap 12

HFXD LH� FDUH� H[SOLF � VSRUXO� GH� YHQLW� SULQ� DFHOHDúL� WUHL� WLSXUL� GH�

SROLWLFL��D�FKHOWXLHOLORU�SXEOLFH��ILVFDO ��PRQHWDU ��

( )∆∆<

*F D

E I O

O0

1

2

1

1= − − ++ ∗

(36.1)

( )∆∆<

7QF F D

E I O

O0

1

2

1

1= − ∗ − − ++ ∗

(36.2)

( )∆∆<

0

E I

OF D

E I O

O0 2

1

2

1

1=+

∗ − − ++ ∗

(36.3)

6H� REVHUY � F � vQ� FD]XO� VFKLPEXULORU� YDULDELOH� GLVSDUH�

″frâna″� FRPHU XOXL� H[WHULRU�� GHRDUHFH� vQFOLQD LD� PDUJLQDO � VSUH�

LPSRUWXUL� QX�PDL� DF LRQHD] �� FD� HIHFW� DO� YDULD LHL� VFKLPEXULORU� FH�

HOLPLQ �GHILFLWXO�SO LORU�úL�WHQGLQ D�GH�″IXJ ″ spre importuri.

0XOWLSOLFDWRULL� EXJHWDUL� VXIHU � XQ� HIHFW� RSXV� ID � GH� FD]XO�

VFKLPEXULORU� IL[H�� SH� VHDPD� PLúF ULORU� GH� FDSLWDO�� $FHúWL�

PXOWLSOLFDWRUL� VXQW� LQYHUV� GHSHQGHQ L� GH� VHQVLWLYLWDWHD� I� �D�

capitalurilor în rapRUW� FX� UDWD�GREkQ]LL��� FHHD� FH�DPSOLILF �″frâna″

ILQDQFLDU �� (L� vúL� DWLQJ� YDORDUHD� PD[LP � GDF � PRELOLWDWHD�

FDSLWDOXOXL� HVWH� QXO � �I� � ��� úL� GHYLQ� QXOL� GDF � DFHDVW �PRELOLWDWH�

HVWH� SHUIHFW � �I� �∞��� GH� REVHUYDW�� GH� DVHPHQHD�� F � YDORDUHD� ORU�

Page 75: Modelare Cap 12

PD[LP �HVWH�HJDO �FX�YDORDUHD�PD[LP �GLQ�YDULDQWD�FX�VFKLPEXULOH�

comerciale externe fixe.

Multiplicatorul monetar este invers determinat de

VHQVLWLYLWDWHD� FDSLWDOXULORU� �I�� FDUH� DSDUH� OD� QXP U WRU�� VSUH�

GHRVHELUH�GH�YDULDQWD�SUHFHGHQW �FkQG�DS UHD�OD�QXPLWRU��'H�DFHHD��

eIHFWHOH�SROLWLFLL�PRQHWDUH�VXQW�RSXVH�vQ�DFHDVW �YDULDQW �ID �GH�FHD�

DQWHULRDU �