Prof.univ.dr. Andreea STOIAN

Departamentul de Finanţe, CEFIMO

Academia de Studii Economice București

MACROECONOMIE FINANCIARA

http://ineteconomics.org/institute-blog/imf-and-human-development-little-progress-and-

worrisome-trends

Blanchard, Chouraqui, Hageman şi Sartor (1990): „o bunăgospodărire” a resurselor

Blanchard (1990): politici fiscale sustenabile, acele politici care nu

conduc la creşterea explozivă a gradului de îndatorare a statului, sau în

urma cărora nu se adoptă măsuri de creştere a impozitării, de reducere

drastică a cheltuielilor publice, de monetizare a deficitului bugetar sau de

repudiere a datoriei publice

Blanchard, O. (1990), „Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No.79

Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J.C., Hagemann, P.R., Sartor, N. (1990), „The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Ansewars to Old Questions”, OECD

Economic Studies No.15, Autumn 1990

Sustenabilitate fiscală. Definiţie

Aritmetica sustenabilității fiscale

Einstein's Blackboard is a blackboard which physicist Albert Einstein (1879–1955) used on 16 May 1931 during his lectures

while visiting the University of Oxford inEngland. The blackboard is one of the most iconic objects in the collection of

theMuseum of the History of Science in Oxford.

The lecture in which the blackboard was used was the second of three, delivered atRhodes House in South Parks Road. Einstein's

visit to give the Rhodes Lectures, and also to receive an honorary Doctor of Science degree from Oxford University on 23 May

1931, was hosted by the physicist Frederick Lindemann Einstein's first lecture was on relativity, the second on cosmological

theory, and the third one was on unified field theory.

The board itself was rescued by E. J. Bowen at the end of the lecture and donated by the Warden of Rhodes House, Sir Francis

James Wylie.[5][6] The blackboard included equations concerning the diameter, expansion, and age of the universe. "L.J." on the

blackboard indicates "light years" inGerman. However, the results were never published by Einstein subsequently.

The blackboard is considered a "mutant" object or artefact in that it is very different from most of the objects in the collection of

the museum (mainly scientific instruments such as astrolabes

Einstein returned to Oxford to lecture again in 1933.

Sursa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein's_Blackboard

Testarea empirică a sustenabilităţii

fiscale

Teste econometrice

Teste de tip unit root

Teste de cointegrare

VAR şi VECM

Funcţia de reacţie fiscală

Teste bazate pe modelul matematic

StabilizareUniunea Europeană

Dinamică vs. steady stateUniunea Europeană (1995-2013)

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Dinamică vs. steady stateUniunea Europeană (1995-2018)

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0

* )()( brhgEt nn

Blanchard taxation rate estimation (t*)

Year b0 t-1 y i g t*

2000 22.1 2.10 -16.7 36.1 42.0

2001 24.7 5.70 -15.2 35.4 38.8

2002 26 5.10 -10.2 37.1 39.0

2003 25 5.20 -6.9 32.0 32.8

2004 21.5 8.40 -3.6 32.2 32.2

2005 18.8 4.10 -2.2 32.4 32.9

2006 15.8 5.20 -0.36 34.5 34.7

2007 12.4 5.6 2.56 36.5 36.7

Data available from IMF (y), European Commission (g, I, b0), National Institute of

Statistics (for inflation rate)

b0: the initial debt level was considered the debt level from previous year (as ratio to

GDP)

g: annual primary government expenditure (as ratio to GDP)

i: real interest rate estimated as difference between implicit interest rate (European

Commission[1]) and inflation rate

Rată sustenabilă a impozitării România (2000-2007)

Sursa: Stoian, A. (2010), ESTIMATING TAXATION RATE BASED ON BLANCHARD’S

APPROACH , Theoretical And Applied Economics

Figure 2

Blanchard taxation rate vs. effective taxation rate

29,228,0 27,6 27,0 27,1

31,0

22,7

30,8

42,0

38,8 39,0

32,8 32,2 32,934,7

36,7

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Anul

Bla

nch

ard

taxati

on

rate

/Eff

ecti

ve t

axati

on

rate

Effective taxation rate(t) Blanchard taxation rate (t*)

Figure 3

Fiscal adjustments

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Anul

Taxati

on

rate

s (

%)

Effective taxation rate(t)

Blanchard taxation rate (t*)

Non-prohibitive effective taxation rate

Sursa: Stoian, A. (2010), ESTIMATING TAXATION RATE BASED ON BLANCHARD’S

APPROACH , Theoretical And Applied Economics

Rată sustenabilă a impozitării vs. Curba LafferRomânia (2000-2007)