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http://www3.uni-bonn.de/Press-releases/global-warming-threatens-plant-diversity

Global Warming threatens Plant

DiversityInitiators of climate change are getting away with it

In the coming decades, climate change is set to produce worldwide changes in theliving conditions for plants, whereby major regional differences may be expected tooccur. hus today!s cool, moist regions could in future provide habitats foradditional species, and in arid and hot regions the climatic prere"uisites for a highdegree of plant diversity will deteriorate. his is the conclusion reached in a newstudy by scientists at the #niversities of $onn, G%ttingen and &ale, and published inthe Proceedings of the 'oyal (ociety )ondon. he study was funded by the*cademy of (ciences and )iterature +ain and the German -ederal +inistry for

ducation and 'esearch /$+$-0.

Dr. Jan enning !ommer of "onn #niversity$s %ees Institute for "iodiversity of Plantsasserts& 'climate change could bring great confusion to the e(isting pattern of plantdiversity& with scarcely predictable conse)uences for our ecosystems and man*ind+. ,he

potential impact of climate change on global plant diversity has now& for the first time& been )uantified and modeled on a regional basis. ,he researchers have investigated thenumbers of plant species to be found in different regions under current climaticconditions& and the subse)uent interrelationship they uncovered has now been applied to

different climate change scenarios for the year 00.

owever& the study does not permit any predictions regarding the degree to which the biodiversity of any given region will& in fact& adapt to new conditions or& in other words&whether additional species will migrate into favoured regions& or whether disadvantagedareas will in reality suffer mass losses of species. ',hat would be fortune-telling. ,headaptability of species and their interactions in the ecosystem can& li*e human landuse&e(ert great influence on their distribution. ,his is a field about which we still *now fartoo little+& !ommer e(plains. %evertheless& the published results do provide an important

pointer to the li*elihood of the scales of immigration or losses to be e(pected in givenareas.

Globalisation in the Plant 1ingdom

It is possible that the worst effects of global warming on plant species numbers could befelt in the tropical 1ma2onian rain forests in !outh 1merica. or 4ermany and othertemperate regions worldwide& on the other hand& scientists are e(pecting future climaticconditions which will promote the provision of habitat space for an increased number ofspecies. '"ut this can scarcely be described as a gain as the intensified redistribution of

plant species will promote worldwide uniformity in the regional composition of species atthe e(pense of uni)ue species which have adapted to special habitat conditions+& says

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!ommer. 1nd as a result& globalisation would also come to the plant *ingdom.

In their study& the researchers have emphasised the clear division of our planet into two parts as regards the impact of climate change on plant diversity. '1dditional capacity for plants species richness could be created everywhere where today cool and moist climatic

conditions prevail+& says Dr. olger 5reft& the young research scientist from "onn andco-author of the study& who has meanwhile assumed an appointment as 6unior professorat 47ttingen #niversity.' 8n the other hand& in areas which today have a hot tropical orsub-tropical climate the prere)uisites for high species numbers will deteriorate+.

he main 2riginators of 3limate 3hange less affected

,his division also has a political dimension: favoured areas coincide largely with theindustrialised nations& who are responsible for the ma6ority of global warming due to theirhigh amount of greenhouse gas emissions. ,he study also points clearly to theconse)uences of a half-hearted climate policy. !hould the global temperature rise by

. 9 with respect to the year 000& then the proportion of favoured and disadvantagedregions in terms of species richness would still remain in balance. ';ven if the climate protection goals agreed in openhagen are achieved& we would still tend to be headingfor a rise in temperature of up to