Element Ch. Operationale Ch. Personal Achizitii Bunuri Investitii Imobilizari Residuals e (mil. Euro)Carne 367000 21000 150000 4900 78560.533985 78560.53399Peste 33000 2610 19157 720 -8018.661565 8018.661565Lactate 166900 11000 100000 4000 -17247.15493 17247.15493Paine 66320 19672 39878 4256 291.71894667 291.7189467Produse fainoase 11400 1333 6791 511 -4869.577048 4869.577048Ciocolata 51000 5913 31492 1591 -10225.31614 10225.31614Zahar 20500 1710 13299 593 -8777.848913 8777.848913Condimente 12300 1687 9234 345 -10985.76927 10985.76927Apa si sucuri 63000 5403 30488 2490 13139.552147 13139.55215Ceai si cafea 24000 2250 13002 584 -5284.028715 5284.028715Vin 40000 2245 17879 1326 7904.5935412 7904.593541Bere 42800 5801 23592 3494 16604.245424 16604.24542Alte bauturi alcoolice 38000 2167 13109 711 9818.4074969 9818.407497Tutun 47200 2759 19766 693 4513.1266146 4513.126615Haine piele 72300 9284 39403 1188 -12519.48471 12519.48471Lenjerie intima 22200 2282 7880 182 -469.0712436 469.0712436Accesorii 24100 2388 9115 260 -461.0423814 461.0423814Incaltaminte 38400 4790 19557 680 -5981.375015 5981.375015Bijuterii 26000 2121 10000 371 959.49795258 959.4979526Instrumente muzicale 14500 501 938 53 6657.7450527 6657.745053Echipamente sportive 19000 1172 4517 193 4475.5328175 4475.532818Calculatoare 84300 6139 50182 710 -24356.05055 24356.05055Televizoare 272200 31496 173680 7841 -46714.30448 46714.30448Jocuri 20000 1381 5000 441 6697.1724583 6697.172458Scaune 45000 27000 6350 754 6754.5730304 6754.57303Saltele 21000 4111 1145 147 10096.256842 10096.25684Cauciucuri 40000 5465 26378 1517 -10947.53963 10947.53963Obiecte de sticla 60330 10655 32218 3095 7643.0986551 7643.098655Obiecte de ceramica 43000 9583 24838 2698 2726.280131 2726.280131Obiecte de piatra 53000 7585 26944 2051 4018.0988224 4018.098822Obiecte din aluminiu 74700 5120 41086 1654 -4940.351986 4940.351986

Obiecte din otel 13000 3203 1221 170 3057.8775849 3057.877585 1Obiecte din fier 20400 9523 3397 631 4251.3665207 4251.366521Arme 24500 3632 9309 326 -1040.746201 1040.746201Unelte pt agricultura 56000 6000 30000 907 -8917.555133 8917.555133Barci 60300 9049 32214 1100 -10303.3803 10303.3803Trenuri 44000 5194 16264 462 3889.5801786 3889.580179

2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.968152788143928R Square 0.937319821190861Adjusted R Square 0.931621623117303Standard Error 18420.0011464388Observations 37

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3 167436763233 55812254411 164.494075 6.46E-20 2.65886650077Residual 33 11196782593.7 339296442.23Total 36 178633545827 ttabelat= 2.34833837244

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%Intercept 5930.38362310615 4280.57089973 1.3854188523 0.175217952 -2778.50331 14639.270557 -2778.5033104 14639.2705566Ch. Personal 0.984234924222906 0.66957009109 1.4699505508 0.151045748 -0.378015662 2.3464855104 -0.378015662 2.34648551041Achizitii Bunuri 2.06498799061229 0.16869979919 12.240607283 8.15687E-14 1.7217656702 2.408210311 1.72176567021 2.40821031102Investitii Imobilizari -9.77715298137261 4.11111465175 -2.378224353 0.023341248 -18.14127859 -1.413027375 -18.141278588 -1.41302737486

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Ch. Operationale Residuals1 288439.466014905 78560.53398512 41018.6615648993 -8018.66156493 184147.154925297 -17247.1549254 66028.2810533343 291.7189466665 16269.577047862 -4869.5770479

Ftabelat =

Achizitii Bunuri Line Fit PlotInvestitii Imobilizari Line Fit Plot

6 61225.3161370347 -10225.3161377 29277.8489127262 -8777.8489127 38 23285.7692670105 -10985.7692679 49860.4478528523 13139.5521471

10 29284.0287154271 -5284.028715411 32095.4064588437 7904.5935411612 26195.7545761325 16604.245423913 28181.5925030778 9818.4074969214 42686.8733853885 4513.1266146115 84819.4847118171 -12519.48471216 22669.0712435979 -469.071243617 24561.0423814246 -461.0423814218 44381.3750152051 -5981.375015219 25040.5020474166 959.49795258320 7842.25494732341 6657.7450526821 14524.4671824862 4475.5328175122 108656.050551042 -24356.05055123 318914.304479031 -46714.30447924 13302.8275417341 6697.1724582725 38245.4269695577 6754.5730304426 10903.7431575758 10096.256842427 50947.5396276131 -10947.53962828 52686.9013448998 7643.098655129 40273.7198690191 2726.2801309830 48981.9011775993 4018.098822431 79640.3519862338 -4940.351986232 9942.12241509638 3057.877584933 16148.6334793447 4251.3665206634 25540.7462005661 -1040.746200635 64917.5551327074 -8917.555132736 70603.3803024737 -10303.38030237 40110.4198214441 3889.58017856

4

Residuals78560.5339850948 6171757500.02 484856564828339 3.809059064E+19

-8018.66156489933 64298933.2924 -515591385055.744 4.134352823E+15-17247.1549252969 297464353.017 -5130413781240.71 8.848504132E+16

291.7189466657 85099.9438437 24825265.9794077 7242000442.2086-4869.57704786195 23712780.6251 -115471212272.797 562295964972408-10225.3161370347 104557090.102 -1069129300664.45 1.093218509E+16-8777.84891272623 77050631.5346 -676338802241.289 5.93679982E+15-10985.7692670105 120687126.388 -1325840923997.04 1.456538248E+1613139.5521471477 172647830.628 2268515173623.47 2.980727342E+16

-5284.02871542711 27920959.4655 -147535151577.758 7795799774717627904.59354115634 62482599.0509 493899548892.331 3.904075184E+1516604.2454238675 275700966.096 4577806504655.76 7.601102271E+169818.40749692221 96401125.7756 946505536027.07 9.293177051E+154513.12661461151 20368311.8395 91924770257.6207 414868127191716

-12519.4847118171 156737497.449 -1962272703086.51 2.456664311E+16-469.071243597868 220027.83157 -103208728.580893 48412246665.594-461.042381424613 212560.07747 -97999204.3124209 45181786533.916-5981.37501520509 35776847.0725 -213994739202.383 1.279982786E+15959.497952583384 920636.321012 883348665.084631 847571235565.976657.74505267659 44325569.1864 295108338958.093 1.964756084E+15

4475.5328175138 20030394.0006 89646685697.6091 401216683820994-24356.0505510421 593217198.445 -14448428073071.9 3.519066445E+17

-46714.304479031 2182226242.96 -101941181155747 4.762111375E+186697.17245826588 44852118.9358 300382375631.404 2.011712573E+156754.57303044227 45624256.8236 308172374674.512 2.081572811E+1510096.2568424242 101934402.228 1029155905974.85 1.039062236E+16

-10947.5396276131 119848623.898 -1312047559440 1.436369265E+167643.09865510018 58416957.0516 446486565876.085 3.412540871E+152726.28013098094 7432603.35258 20263358841.6052 552435925968054018.09882240074 16145118.1466 64872680212.2866 260664839966969

-4940.35198623376 24407077.7479 -120579555029.92 595705444191246

et2 et

3 et4

3057.87758490362 9350615.32426 28593037005.0986 87434006942211 54251.36652065527 18074117.2929 76839697149.6379 326673715919261-1040.7462005661 1083152.65399 -1127287009.27607 1173219671851.6-8917.5551327074 79522789.5449 -709148860073.12 6.323874057E+15

-10303.3803024737 106159645.657 -1093803201984.08 1.126987037E+163889.5801785559 15128833.9654 58844812716.5413 228881617153093

11196782593.7 365171385468837 4.352905792E+19

3.51492016741k= 12.8467863261

JB= 171.154109166val critica= 9.48772903699 Deci respingem ipoteza nula a distributiei normale

S2=

6

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.87107111684R Square 0.7587648906Adjusted R Square 0.73683442611Standard Error 7259.41376415Observations 37

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 3 5469954990.086 1823318330 34.59867 2.6612699E-10Residual 33 1739069910.572 52699088.199Total 36 7209024900.658

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%Intercept 2128.15131872 1686.994211394 1.2615048139 0.215972 -1304.0641938 5560.36683125 -1304.064193819 5560.36683124983Ch. Personal 0.04247189212 0.263880892118 0.1609509949 0.873113 -0.4943978169 0.57934160114 -0.494397816902 0.579341601135534Achizitii Bunuri 0.44587550183 0.066485427146 6.7063644015 1.23E-07 0.31060988393 0.58114111974 0.3106098839255 0.581141119738096Investitii Imobilizari -3.3125950047 1.620210664032 -2.0445458595 0.048944 -6.6089383692 -0.01625164017 -6.60893836915 -0.0162516401652886

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted e Residuals1 53669.6708051 24890.863179982 8395.57154238 -376.9099774793 33932.5122965 -16685.35737134 6645.87730266 -6354.158355995 3519.97083647 1349.6062113956 11150.4602681 -925.144131044

Am calculat valoarea absoluta a erorilor si am construit un model de regresie: e = α1 + α2x2 + α3x3 + α4x4 + uIn urma testarii parametrilor se observa ca α3 si α4 sunt semnificativi (p_value fiind mai mic decat α=0.05), ceea ce inseamna ca modelul este heteroscedastic.

7 6166.10771533 2611.741197392 78 5174.17050802 5811.5987589869 7703.11769007 5436.434457075

10 6086.43086807 -802.40215264811 5802.80783759 2101.78570356412 1319.41865783 15284.8267660413 5709.91481413 4108.49268278914 8762.87810005 -4249.7514854315 16155.9298983 -3636.4451864516 5135.67884011 -4666.6075965117 5432.45469508 -4971.4123136518 8799.01426811 -2817.6392529119 5448.01647348 -4488.518520920 2392.09342214 4265.6516305421 3552.61718215 922.915635362522 22411.868244 1944.18230700523 54931.4457595 -8217.1412804224 2955.32811383 3741.84434443225 3608.50520899 3146.06782145726 2326.32925112 7769.92759130527 9096.35757439 1851.18205322628 6693.42470782 949.6739472829 4672.4338528 -1946.1537218230 7669.83778722 -3651.7389648231 15185.8161369 -10245.464150732 2245.46162611 812.415958793933 1957.00277913 2294.36374152934 5353.15830592 -4312.4121053535 12754.7240571 -3837.1689244436 13232.0583814 -2928.6780788937 8070.05059601 -4180.47041745

8

Residuals78560.533985095 6171757500.02-8018.661564899 -86579.195549994 7495957102.08413 64298933.2924

-17247.1549253 -9228.4933603975 85165089.7029014 297464353.017291.7189466657 17538.873871963 307612096.696611 85099.9438437

-4869.577047862 -5161.2959945277 26638976.3431272 23712780.6251-10225.31613703 -5355.7390891727 28683941.1912926 104557090.102-8777.848912726 1447.4672243084 2095161.36544718 77050631.5346-10985.76926701 -2207.9203542843 4874912.29086297 120687126.38813139.552147148 24125.321414158 582031133.336444 172647830.628-5284.028715427 -18423.580862575 339428331.799834 27920959.46557904.5935411563 13188.622256583 173939757.026848 62482599.050916604.245423867 8699.6518827111 75683942.8803595 275700966.0969818.4074969222 -6785.8379269453 46047596.370769 96401125.77564513.1266146115 -5305.2808823107 28146005.2402114 20368311.8395-12519.48471182 -17032.611326429 290109848.597184 156737497.449-469.0712435979 12050.413468219 145212464.755039 220027.83157-461.0423814246 8.0288621732543 64.4626277971139 212560.07747-5981.375015205 -5520.3326337805 30474072.3875817 35776847.0725959.49795258338 6940.8729677885 48175717.5549768 920636.3210126657.7450526766 5698.2471000932 32470020.0137207 44325569.18644475.5328175138 -2182.2122351628 4762050.23929421 20030394.0006-24356.05055104 -28831.583368556 831260199.537987 593217198.445-46714.30447903 -22358.253927989 499891518.708433 2182226242.966697.1724582659 53411.476937297 2852785868.6234 44852118.93586754.5730304423 57.40057217639 3294.82568617692 45624256.823610096.256842424 3341.6838119819 11166850.699262 101934402.228-10947.53962761 -21043.796470037 442841369.872355 119848623.8987643.0986551002 18590.638282713 345611831.758686 58416957.05162726.2801309809 -4916.8185241192 24175104.3991221 7432603.352584018.0988224007 1291.8186914198 1668795.53150155 16145118.1466-4940.351986234 -8958.4508086345 80253840.890724 24407077.74793057.8775849036 7998.2295711374 63971676.2726163 9350615.324264251.3665206553 1193.4889357517 1424415.83976162 18074117.2929-1040.746200566 -5292.1127212214 28006457.0541131 1083152.65399-8917.555132707 -7876.8089321413 62044118.953461 79522789.5449-10303.38030247 -1385.8251697663 1920511.40115787 106159645.6573889.5801785559 14192.96048103 201440127.216069 15128833.9654

15195974265.9236 11196782593.7

(d) DW= 1.3571732896205 k=4,T=37di= 1.25 Nu exista corelatie intre 1.72 si 2.28ds= 1.72

et-et-1 (et-et-1)2 et2

9