8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

1/9

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

2/9

2

Tabel V.1. Indicele Big Mac 21 iulie 2010. Meniul MacMonede

Sursa: www.economist.com

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

3/9

3

6. n Raportul BNR asupra inflaiei din noiembrie 2011 se afirm c nintervalul iulie-septembrie, leul s-a depreciat n termeni nominali cu 7% in raportcu dolarul SUAi cu 8,2% n termeni reali. Explicai aceast diferen prin evoluiapreurilor n cele dou ri.

7. Cursul real se calculeaz dup formula n f

PP

S R = , unde: S este cursul

nominal, nP nivelul preurilor n ar , f P nivelul preurilor n str in tate. Dac rata infla iei a teptate n zona euro este de 2%, rata infla iei a teptate n Romniaeste de 3,5%, iar gradul estimat de apreciere a monedei EUR ar fi de 0,05%, ctanticipa i c va fi modificarea procentual a cursului real?

8. Enumerai o serie de factori care determin deviaii de la teoria PPP petermen scurt.

9. Comentai figura de mai jos, care ilustreaz evoluia cursului real(2005=100) vis-a-vis de dolarul american pentru Germania, Romniai China.

Sursa: ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set 1

10. Explica i de ce exportatorii sunt dezavantaja i atunci cnd moneda lorna ional se apreciaz n termeni reali n raport cu monedele str ine ? Dar dac moneda na ional se depreciaz n termeni reali ?

11. De ce sunt pre urile rigide (en. sticky prices ) pe termen scurt? Ave i nvedere costul meniurilor.

1 http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Germania Romania China

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

4/9

4

12. Comentai prin prisma efectului Balassa Samuelson urm toarele grafice:

Figura V.1 2. Rata de cre tere a productivit ii n sectorul bunurilortranzac ionabile i n cel al bunurilor netranzac ionabile

Diferen a dintre rata de cre tere a pre urilor n sectorul bunurilor

tranzac ionabile i n cel al bunurilor netranzac ionabile

Sursa: Mihaljek, D. i Klau, M. 2003. The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: adisaggregated analysis. BIS Working Paper Nr. 143.

2 Nota ii: CZ = Cehia, HR = Croatia, HU = Ungaria, PL = Polonia, SI = Slovenia, SK = Slovacia, XM = zona euro. Perioadele aferente: zona euro (1992:12001:3), Croatia (1995:12001:3), Cehia (19932001:3), Ungaria (1994 2001:3), Polonia (19942001:3), Slovacia (19952001:3) i Slovenia (19922001:3).

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

5/9

5

The Big Mac index -Why China needs more expensive burgers

A WEAK currency, despite its appeal to exporters and politicians, is no free lunch. But it can providea cheap one. In China, for example, a McDonalds Big Mac costs just 14.5 yuan on average in Beijingand Shenzhen, the equivalent of $2.18 at market exchange rates. In America, in contrast, the sameburger averages $3.71.

If a currency war is in the offing, Americas congressmen seem increasingly determined to armthemselves. A bill passed by the House of Representatives last month would treat undervaluedcurrencies as an illegal export subsidy and allow American firms to request countervailing tariffs.The size of those tariffs would reflect the scale of the undervaluation.

How does the bill propose to calculate this misalignment? It relies not on Big Macs, but on the lessdigestible methods favoured by the IMF. The fund uses three related approaches. First, it calculatesthe real exchange rate that would steadily bring a countrys current-account balance (equivalent tothe trade balance plus a few other things) into line with a norm based on the countrys growth,income per person, demography and budget balance.

The funds second approach ignores current-account balances and instead calculates a directstatistical relationship between the real exchange rate and things like a countrys terms of trade (theprice of its exports compared with its imports), its productivity and its foreign assets and liabilities.The strength of Brazils currency, for example, may partly reflect the high price of exports such assoyabeans.

That makes Chinas yuan one of the mostundervalued currencies in the Big Mac index, ourgratifyingly simple guide to currencymisalignments, updated this week (see chart).The index is based on the idea of purchasing-power parity, which says that a currencys priceshould reflect the amount of goods and services itcan buy. Since 14.5 yuan can buy as much burgeras $3.71, a yuan should be worth $0.26 on theforeign-exchange market. In fact, it costs just$0.15, suggesting that it is undervalued by about40%.

The tensions caused by such misalignmentsprompted Brazils finance minister, GuidoMantega, to complain last month that his countrywas a potential casualty of a currency war.Perhaps it was something he ate. In Brazil a BigMac costs the equivalent of $5.26, implying thatthe real is now overvalued by 42%. The index alsosuggests that the euro is overvalued by about29%. And the Swiss, who avoid most wars, are inthe thick of this one. Their franc is the mostexpensive currency on our list. The Japanese areso far the only rich country to intervene directlyin the markets to weaken their currency. Butaccording to burgernomics, the yen is only 5%overvalued, not much of acasus belli .

Oct 2010

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

6/9

6

Third, the fund also calculates the exchange rate that would stabilise the countrys foreign assetsand liabilities at a reasonable level. If, for example, a country runs sizeable trade surpluses,resulting in a rapid build-up of foreign assets, it probably has an undervalued exchange rate.

The IMF has typically assessed its members policies one at a time. But the funds managingdirector, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now proposes to assess its biggest members all at once to makesure their macroeconomic strategies do not work at cross-purposes. He is keen to identify the ways inwhich a countrys policies, including its exchange-rate policies, spill over to its neighbours.

Those spillovers depend on the size of the economy as much as the scale of any misalignments. Butthe biggest economies are also the hardest to bully. The funds last annual report on the Chineseeconomy, in July, included the governments rebuttal of every criticism the fund offered. In adecorous compromise the report concluded that the yuan was substantially undervalued butrefrained from quantifying the size of the problem.

Big revaluations of the kind required to satisfy the fund or equalise the price of burgers are unlikely. A recent study of the Big Mac index by Kenneth Clements, Yihui Lan and Shi Pei Seah of theUniversity of Western Australia showed that misalignments are remarkably persistent. As a result,

the raw index did a poor job of predicting exchange rates: undervalued currencies remain too cheapand overvalued currencies remain too pricey.

But since this bias is systematic, it can be identified and removed. Once that is done, the threeeconomists show that a reconstituted index is good at predicting real exchange rates over horizons ofa year or more. Since The Economist costs just $6.99 (a little less than two burgers) on the news-stand, the index provides decent value for money for would-be currency speculators, the authorsconclude. The Big Mac index may itself be undervalued.

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

7/9

7

ANEXA V.1. Efectul Balassa-Samuelson

= 1)()( T T T T K L AY

(BS.1) = 1)()( NT NT NT NT K L AY

(BS.2)

unde: A reprezint factorul total de productivitate, L exprim input-urile demunc , iar K pe cele de capital.

T T T T K R LW Y = (BS.3) NT NT NT NT K R LW Y P = (BS.4)

unde: P reprezint nivelul preurilor din sectorul NT relativ la sectorul T, W estesalariul (acela

i n sectoarele T

i NT), iar

R este rata dobnzii.

Substituind primele dou relaii n urm toarele dou obinem:T T T T T T K R LW K L A = 1)()( (BS.5)

NT NT NT NT NT NT K R LW K L AP = 1)()( (BS.6)

Maximizarea profitului presupune c productivitatea muncii i a capitalului trebuies fie egale cu preul celor doi factori (salariuli respectiv rata de dobnd ).

W K L AL

T T T T

T ==

11 )()(0 BS.7

RK L A

K T T T

T

T ==

)()()1(0

BS.8

W K L APL

NT NT NT NT

NT ==

11 )()(0 BS.9

RK L AP

K NT NT NT

NT

NT ==

)()()1(0

BS.10

n continuare, logaritm m relaiile BS7-10, le scriem pentru dou momente, 1 i 0,sc dem relaiile de la momentul 0 din cele de la momentul 1 i utiliz maproximarea ln(1+x)=x:

)/(%)()1((%)(%)(%) T T T LK AW ++= (BS.11)

)/(%)()1((%)(%)(%)(%) NT NT NT LK APW +++= (BS.12)

)/(%)((%))1(%)((%) T T T LK A R += (BS.13)

)/(%)((%)(%))1(%)((%) NT NT NT LK AP R ++= (BS.14)

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

8/9

8

Notnd modificarea procentual a variabilelor cu litere mici, iar )/(%)( LK cu k,relaiile BS.11-14 devin:

T T k aw += )1( (BS.15) NT NT k a pw ++= )1( (BS.16) T T k a = (BS.17) pk a NT NT = (BS.18)

Substituind BS.17 n BS.15, iar apoi BS.18 n BS.16, obinem:

T T T T akkkw ==+= )1( (BS.19)

NT NT NT k k pk pw =++= )1( (BS.20)

Rescriem ecuaia BS.16 n funcie de BS.20i obinem:

. NT T NT NT NT aaawak p ===

(BS.21)

Relaia BS.21 ilustreaz mecanismul de transmisie intern a efectului Balassa-Samuelson, sau modul n care creterea productivit ii n sectorul T relativ lasectorul NT afecteaz inflaia. S nu uit m c am normalizat pre urile din sectorul

T la nivelul 1, deci variabila PPPPPP p (%)lnln

0

0101

=== exprim modificarea

procentual a nivelului preurilor, T NT

PP

P = . Modificarea procentual a niveluluirelativ al pre urilor se poate scrie astfel:

T NT T NT p pPPP p === (%)(%)(%) .

Relaia BS.21 devine:

. NT T T NT aa p p =

(BS.22)

De asemenea, vom completa modelul lund n considerare o economie extern , cea a

zonei euro, pentru care variabilele vor fi notate cu *.Cursul real de schimb Q se calculeaz conform urm toarei formule:

RO

ZE

PPS

Q =

Scriind relaia de mai sus n modific ri procentuale i notnd modific rileprocentuale ale variabilelor cu litere mici, obinem:

8/14/2019 V PPP.pdf

9/9