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PROIECT MINSTUDENTI:

TANASE ALEXANDRU VIOREL

TANASA CONSTANTIN FLORINGRUPA:4132C

ACADEMIA NAVALA MIRCEA CEL BATRAN - CONSTANTA

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Modelarea riscului de esuare a

navei – O revizuire de literaturadintr-o pespectiva degestionare a riscurilor

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Abst !"t: A""#$%&t%'% $% %s(! % ! &!)%# *+##&$ (&(' $#&t % t#,( #'% !./ % $% !""#$%&t%

! #t# %* s(&t %s(! # s% +#"!t#)% ,(&!&$ #&,% #"/' s#st% %'% t !&s,/ t!t/! % ! #t# % I&,'(s* #s"( #'% !s/"#!t% "( !"%st% %s(! # ,/t +#"!t!st /+!'% ,%&t ( s#st% * s/"#%t!t% s# %$#('

#&"/&.( !t/

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IntroducereA""#$%&t(' $% %s(! % ! &!)%# %st% (& t#, $% !""#$%&t ! #t#"! % # ,'#"! # ,!"t(' (&%# &!)% ,% +(&$(' ! ## s!( #& ,! t%!(&%# "!# &!)# !b#'% P/! % % ('t! #& !)! #% %! ,! t##s(b % s#b#'% ! "/"!# &!)%# s# #& ,! t#"('! st ("t( ! $% ,% +(&$! ,(t%! $("% '! ,!t (&$% %! !,%# * "! % #&t -(& +#&!' ,/!t%"/ , / #t% #&t% #t!t%! s# st!b#'#t!t%! st ("t( ## &!)%# s# #& +#&!'s# ( !&t! Es(! #'% s%)% % !,'#"! t%&s#( % t % % !s(, !st ("t( ## &!)%# I& !""#$%&t%'% !# ,(t#& !)% * ,/t % ('t!&( !# "!t%)! !)! #% # '! "/"! &!)%# t/t(s# "%'% !# s% #/!s%!""#$%&t% ,/t $("% b %s% #& "/"!* s"( % # $% ! +( # *,#% $% %! t/t!'! ! &!)%#* s# "%' !# "( ,'#t s"%&! #( * ,#% $% #/ %&%st# I& ,% s,%"t#)! '/b!'! ! %)#$%&t%'/ $% %s(! % 153$#& &!)%'% "/ % "#!'% s(+% ! / %s(! % s# %st% !' $/#'%! "! s#+ %")%&t! $(,! "/'# #(&%! #&t % &!)%

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P #& ( ! % !"%st ! t#"/' ! % t %# /b#%"t#)%P # (' /b#%"t#) #s# , /,(&% (& "!$ ( %t/$/'/ #"!$%")!t ,%&t ( /$%'! %! #s"('(# b! !t! ,%"(&/!st% %* #&$%,'# %! %"/ !&$! #'/ $!t% $%"!t % %)!'(! %! +/ !'! $% s%"( #t!t% %'#b% !t! $%IMO A' $/#'%! /b#%"t#) #s# , /,(&% !&!'# ! %"%& ##'/s# ! $#s"(t##'/ "( , #)# % !s(, ! /$%'%'/ $% #s"% #st%&t% )!'!b#'% #& '#t% !t( ! $% )/'t!t! ,% b! !%'("#$! ## "! ( #'/ $% &!)% %s(!t% A' t %#'%! /b#%"t#)

#s# , /,(&% %'!b/ ! %! (&%# '#st% "( %"/ !$! #'% $%/$%'% "! % !( "%'% !# ,(t#&% #s"( # $% '(!t #&

"!'"(' s# !# , %)%$% s# %"/ !&$! # ,%&t ($% )/'t! %! %$%'%'/ ('t% #/! % $% "/ b!t% % !

%s(! ##

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2. Cadrul metodologicI& "/&t% t(' !&!'# %# $% #s"* , % %&t!t% #&"!,#t/'(' 6 ! #$('(# FSA7IMO 20128* #s"(' %st%$%+#t "! (& , /$(s #&t % , /b!b#'#t!t%7P8 s#"/&s%"#&t% 7C8 !'% !"t#('/ $!t%:

R9 P C

S% s( % %! ! $% )/'t! %! '!&t('(# "!( !' $%%)% t%&t% "! % "/&$(" '! !""#$%&t * "%%! "%

#&s%! &! "! $%+#t#! #s"('(# #&"'($% / #&t%'% % % #&!&( #t% s"%&! ## "/&$("!&$ '! s#t(!t## &%$/ #t%

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2. !e"initia C/&s#$% !&$ t !+#"(' ! #t# "! (& s#st% * / b#&% "/ ,(s!!, /,#% % $% #s" ,/!t% +# ( !t! 7 !# %s 200; A)%& 2011b8* (&$%

#s"(' % #st%&t $#& "!$ (' s#st% ('(# ,/!t% +# %$%+#t "! s# (& s%t"/ ,'%t $% t #,'%t# 7

C8C( t/!t% !"%st%! * $%s" ##&$ #s"(' "! (& s%t "/ ,'%t $% t #,'%t# *

%st% # %!'# !b#' $%/! %"% "(&/st#&t%'% &/!st % !s(, ! s#st% ('(#"#/$!t! &( s(&t "/ ,'%t%* !st+%' * s#st% (' &( ,/!t% +# "! !"t% # !t "(, %"# #%

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2.# $cenariulU& st!$#( +(&$! %&t!' s# , /b!b#' "%' !# # ,/ t!&t $#& / #"%

!&!'# ! $% #s" * "! % '! !&$(' s!( !+%"t%! ! t/t# ,!s## $% ( !t #&!&!'# ! %st% s"%&! #(' $% #$%&t#+#"! % #&s%! &! $%s" #% %! !$%")!t! !"(&/st#&t%'/ ,% (& s#st% s# !s(, ! /b#"%#('(# '(# I&t(#t#)* # ,/ t!&t!!"%st(# ,!s ,! % %)#$%&t!* $%s# &( #&t/t$%!(&! , # %st% " %$#t%

$!t/ !t% U& s"%&! #( ,/!t% +# $%+#t "! / %!'# ! % ! (&(# '!&t $%%)% %&t% $%"'!&s!t $% (& %)% %&t #t#!t/ 7IE8 IE ,/!t% "!( !#s"! %! s#st% ('(# $#& t !#%"t/ #! s! %+#"#%&t! s# #& "/&$#t## $%

s# ( !&t! , %$%+#&t% 7SO8 * "!t % (& s%t $% t !#%"t/ ## 7SI8 "! % &(%st% '! +%' $% s# ( s# %+#"!"% , %"( SO* $! !st! &( #&s% !&! "!t/!t% &/#'% s%t( # $% t !#%"t/ ## s(&t &%s# ( % S#st% (' +##&$ ,%

t !#%"t/ #! s! SI "!'!t/ %st% , #& st! # #.'/"## )! #!t% 7MS8 #& "! %t !& #t#! #! '/" * %$# %"t#/&!&$ s#st% (' "!t % "/&$#t#! s! +#&!'! 7ES8A"%!st! $#& ( ! ,/!t% +# (& %)% %&t $/ #t s!( &%$/ #t *

, %"( (& !""#$%&t * s!( / /,% !t#(&% s# ( ! ! MTS* "! % #&s%! &!!"%%! "! s#st% (' s% ,/!t% #&t/! "% '! (& !&( #t ,(&"t "!t % S0,%&t ( / $#s"(t#% !, /+(&$!t! ,% !"%!st! t% !* (& "#t#t/ %st%

%$# %"t#/&!t "!t % /,% ! / # #!'! ! '(#

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C!&$ )#&% )/ b! $% %st#/&! %! #s"( #'/ * s"%&! #(' $% !""#$%&t,/!t% +# $#)# !t #& 2 +! %: , %-!""#$%&t s# ,/st-!""#$%&t 7+# ( ! 18 C(t/!t% !"%st%! * "%'% 2 !b/ $! # $#+% #t% ! $# #&(! ## #s"('(# ,/t +#st($#!t%* ,/ %"'#&$(-s% : , /!"t#"! s# %!"t#)! It#!t/ (' s% ,/!t% ! !,% !"t#( ,%&t ( ! %$("% , /b!b#'#t!t%! !""#$%&t('(# * #&t ("!t #& "%'%$#& ( ! s% ! %! ! ,% s"!$%! %! $% "/&s%"#&t% ! (&(# !""#$%&t

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2.) ConsecinteleC/&s"%"#&t%'% s(&t "/&s#$% !t% % ('t!t%'% s( b % !'% (&(#

s"%&! #( , #& ( ! % * #&t% , %t! %! '/ ,/!t% $%,#&$% $% !b/ $! %!!$/,t!t! !s(, ! %st#/&! ## #s"('(# 7, /!"t#)% s# %!"t#)%8

ACADEMIA NAVALA MIRCEA CEL BATRAN - CONSTANTA

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#. Revizuirea modelelor e*istente#. $copul revizuirii D(,! "( s-! %&t#/&!t* st!$#(' +(&$! %&t!' ! /$%'! ## #s"('(# *t#&!&$ "/&t $% ,% s,%"t#)! %st#/&! ## #s"('(# * %st% (& , /"%s !s"%&! #('(# $% #$%&t#+#"! % $%-! '(& (' %)!'(! ## ! "(&/st#&t%'/

%&% !'% $%s, % !&!'# ! s#st% ('(# * #& / $#&% ,%&t ( ! $%t% #&!/,t#('% $% "/&t /' "/ %s,(& !t/! % #s"('(# I& "/&t#&(t(' !"%st%'(" ! # * t !&s,/ t(' ! #t# %st% $%+#t "! +##&$ (& s#st% * s#s"%&! ##'% /$%'%'/ %)# (#t% s(&t %)!'(!t% !s! "( %# t/t## ,! t!s%s" !"%'!s# ES %&t#/&!t% , %"( !""#$%&t(' $% %s(! % !&!)%#

ACADEMIA NAVALA MIRCEA CEL BATRAN - CONSTANTA

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#.2 Modele analiticeM!"$(++ ! %&t#/&!t "! , /b!b#'#t!t%! !""#$%&t('(# $% %s(! % ! t %b(#%st# !t "! / "/ b#&!t#% $% 2 , /b!b#'#t!t# * !s! &( #t(' %/ %t #"7PG8 s# "!( !'#t!t%! 7PC8 P /b!b#'#t!t%! %/ %t #"! ! %s(! ## $!, /b!b#'#t!t%! s!( &( ! (' &!)%'/ "! % s(&t "!&$#$!t# !# %s(! ## *

!s( !&$(-s# &!)# !t#! /! b! * "! % %st% $%+#t! "! s# &%%+%"t(! %!$% !&%) % %)! #)% ! %s(! ## P /b!b#'#t!t%! "!( ! ## % , # !, /b!b#'#t!t%! !"%%! "! &!)! "! % )! '/)# +(&$(' &( )! s(st ! % $!"!$#& "!( ! )! #%t!t## $% /t#)%

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#.2.2 Pedersen + ,,) si $imonsen + ,, S# #'! % "( F#.#* /$%'%'% '(# P%$% s/& s# S# /&s%& %st# %! !

&( ! (' ,/t%&t#!' $% %s(! #7N 8* (&$% P" %, % #&t! , /b!b#'#t!t%!"!( !t/! % C( t/!t% !"%st%! * %'% %&t%'% " %#% !'% /$%'('(# !( +/st% t#&s% "!t % t#,(' &!)%# s# "!t % t/&!.(' $%!$ %# t7"'!s! &!)%#8*

&( ! (' !&&(!' $% t !&sb/ $! # 7 8 * #&t% )!'(' $% t# , %$#( #&t %,/ #t##'% )% #+#"!t% $% "!t % &!)# !t/ 7!8* s# '!t# %! "!&!'('(# &!)# !b#'7$8

I& ,'(s * #& '/" $% $%&s#t!t%! t !+#"('(# * $#st #b(#t! !"t(!'! !&!)%'/ 7+8 , #& t !)% s! "// $/&!t%'/ /bst!"/'('(# 7 8 %st% +/'/s#t I&

#'%'% &/!st %* (&(' ,/!t% +/'/s# $!t%'% AIS ,%&t ( % t ! % %! "(!"( !t%t% ! , /, #%t%t#'/ t !+#"('(# %!' , %"( $#st #b(t#! &!)%'/ #&!&( #t% t !s%%

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#.2.) CO/I +2001CO I 7200>8 ! %+%"t(!t FSA , #& # ,'% %&t! %! !b/ $! ##

P%$% s%& * , % %&t!t! #& s%"t#! 3 2 2 P #& ( ! %* M/$%'(' CO I *%st% !'t! %)# (# % ! /$%'('(# P%$% s%& *#& t# , "% +/'/s%st%$#st #b(# %! "( s('(# $%!s(, ! +(&$('(# !,%# 7COG8 ! &!)%'/ #&)%"#&!t!t%! !'( #'/ 7+# ( !48 C! !$!/s "!t % % , %s#! '(# P%$% s%&$% , /b!b#'#t!t% ! %s(! ##* CO I % , # ! , /b!b#'#t!t%! $% %s(! % 7P 8"! +##&$: P 9 F7!18 F7!28

ACADEMIA NAVALA MIRCEA CEL BATRAN - CONSTANTA

U&$% * F %st% $#st #b(t#! G!(ss#!& ! $ ( ('(# $%!s(, ! +(&$('(# ! &!)%#$#& )%"#&!t!t%! !'( #'/ P! ! %t (' +##&$ % t !s "( !.(t/ (' AIS !1 s# !2+#.&$ (& #( #'% COG "! % $%s" #( #&t% s%"t! %! t !#%"t/ #%# &!)%# "( !'( #'%"%'% !# !, /,#!t%

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#.2. Monte3'a et al +20 M/&t% =! * $% !s% %&%! ! "/&s#$% !t !&%) !b#'#t!t%! (&%#&!)% #&$#)#$(!'%* (&$% #&t% !"t#(&%! $#&t % &!)! s# t! %st% %)!'(!t!#& $#+% #t% '/"!t## P%&t ( !"%st /t#)* / +(&"t#% (t#'! !st% $%+#t! "! %#&"!$ %! ! (& s%t $% )! #!b#'% , %"( "! !"t% #st#"#'% &!)%# # , %(&!

"( "! !"t% #st#"#'% &!)%# , #& !,! s# ! t !+#"('(# C! !"t% #st#"#'% &!)%#s(&t /$%'!t% $% "!t % ,%s"!.(' ! # * "( b! $% # !t#%* s# 2"/%+#"#%&t# * #& "! % (&(' $%s" #% $#st!&t! ,!&! '! "! % $% !st (' ,/!t%+# $%t%"t!t s# "%'!'!'t %, % #&t! %" #,! %t(' t% " $%t#&(t $% "!t %&!)!

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#.# Modelele pro4a4ilistice A"%st%! ,/t +# )! (t% "! (& )%' !# s(s $%"!t /$%'%'%!&!'#t#"% C! s# "/ ,'% %&t! "!t % /$%'%'% !&!'#t#"% * /$%'%'%, /b!'#st#"% !&!'# %! ! !""#$%&t(' $% %s(! % $#&t -(& (& # !#s#st% !t#" s# /'#st#"* (t#'# !&$ $#+% #t% %t/$% , %"( FTA s!(!b/ $! %! B! %s#!&

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#.#. 5mrozo3icz + ,,C( !"%st%! +##&$ s,(s%* A / / #" ! % %"(t!t (& FTA !s(, !

%s(! #'/ #& "! % s(&t # ,'#"!t% &!)% t#, t!&" E' ! !&!'# !t s"%&! ##'%, #& $%+# %! ! 2 ES "! +##&$ !'# %&t! %! s# %s(! #'% , #& $% #)!* st##&$+!,t(' "! !"%st%! s(&t %)% %&t% % "'(s#)% %"#, /"% F#%"! % t#, $%%s(! % ! +/st ,(s #&t -(& FT * "! +##&$ %)% %&t '#$% $(,! "! % ! +/sts,! t #& b("!t%'% "!t % %)% %&t%'% $% b! ! P #& # /'! %! !b/ $! ##(&(# s#st% $% !&!'# !* A / / #" ! +/'/s#t "(&/st#&t%'% s!'% $%

% ,% t ,%&t ( $% )/'t! %! FT-('(# P%&t ( %st# ! %! , /b!b#'#t!t## *$!t%'% #st/ #"% !( +/st +/'/s#t% #& !$#t#% ,%&t ( % ,% t# !

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#.#.2 Ram4ell +200 R! b%' #&"/ ,/ %! ! /$%'%'% !&!'#t#"% !'% '(# P%$% s%& "! ,% /,! t% ! /$%'%'(# s!( , /b!'#st#" 7+# ( !H8 S# #'! "( CO I 7200>8*R! b%' ! !,'#"!t / !b/ $! % ! s"%&! #('(# b! !t ,% ( ! # %! "!$ ('(#FSA #& , /"%s(' $% /$%'! % P /b!b#'#t!t%! "!( !t/! % ! +/st $%+#t!+/'/s#&$ BBN* #& t# , "% , /b!b#'#t!t%! %/ %t #"! ! &!)%# $%)%&$"!&$#$!t(' %s(! ## %st% !$!( !t "!t % %t%! $% "!t % &/$( # % , # !&$%'% %&t%'% /$%'('(# !&!'#t#" !' '(# P%$% s%& Ast+%'* R! b%'' ! #&'/"(#t

FTA-(' $#& /$%'(' '(# P%$% s%& "( (& BBN* ,!st !&$ !st+%' !"%'%!s#%'% %&t%

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#.#.2 Ram4ell +200 R! b%' #&"/ ,/ %! ! /$%'%'% !&!'#t#"% !'% '(# P%$% s%& "! ,% /,! t% ! /$%'%'(# s!( , /b!'#st#" 7+# ( !H8 S# #'! "( CO I 7200>8*R! b%' ! !,'#"!t / !b/ $! % ! s"%&! #('(# b! !t ,% ( ! # %! "!$ ('(#FSA #& , /"%s(' $% /$%'! % P /b!b#'#t!t%! "!( !t/! % ! +/st $%+#t!+/'/s#&$ BBN* #& t# , "% , /b!b#'#t!t%! %/ %t #"! ! &!)%# $%)%&$"!&$#$!t(' %s(! ## %st% !$!( !t "!t % %t%! $% "!t % &/$( # % , # !&$%'% %&t%'% /$%'('(# !&!'#t#" !' '(# P%$% s%& Ast+%'* R! b%'' ! #&'/"(#t

FTA-(' $#& /$%'(' '(# P%$% s%& "( (& BBN* ,!st !&$ !st+%' !"%'%!s#%'% %&t%

ACADEMIA NAVALA MIRCEA CEL BATRAN - CONSTANTA