Atlas tipograf final.pdf

CZU 551.58(478)(084.42)=135.1=111R 47

Proiect finanat de Fondul Ecologic Naional

Conductor de proiect: dr. hab. Maria Nedealcov

Consultant tiinific: Ioan Donisa, dr. n geografie, prof. univ. (Facultatea de Geografie, Universitatea Alexandru Ioan Cuza, Iai, Romnia)Redactori tiinifici: Liviu Apostol, dr. n geografie, prof. univ. (Facultatea de Geografie, Universitatea Alexandru Ioan Cuza, Iai, Romnia); Valentin Sofroni, dr. hab. n geografie, prof. univ. (Facultatea de Geografie, Universitatea de Stat din Tiraspol)

Recenzent: Catedra de geografie general, Facultatea de Geografie, Universitatea de Stat din Tiraspol

Redactor: Mihai PapucCorectori: Maria Cornesco, Valeria IamandiRedactor tehnic: Nina DuduciucMachetare computerizat: Olga CiuntuCopert: Vitalie Ichim

Hri: Valentin RileanuFotografii: Valentin RileanuPrezentare grafic (figuri, tabele): Maria Nedealcov, Ana Gmureac, Valentina RusuActualizarea bazei de date: Rodica Cojocari, Galina MleavaiaRedactarea i verificarea bazei tiinifice a hrilor: Editura Strih SRL

Traducere n limba englez: Rodica Srbu

Toate drepturile asupra acestei ediii aparin ntreprinderii Editorial-Poligrafice tiina.

Descrierea CIP a Camerei Naionale a CriiAtlas. Resursele climatice ale Republicii Moldova = Atlas. Climatic resources of the Republic of

Moldova / colectiv de aut.: Maria Nedealcov, Valentin Rileanu, Lazr Chiric .a.; red. t.: Liviu Apostol, Valentin Sofroni; Acad. de tiine a Moldovei, Ministerul Mediului al Rep. Moldova, Inst. de Ecologie i Geogr. Ch.: .E.P. tiina (n colaborare cu editura Strih SRL), 2013 (Combinatul Poligr.) 76 p.

Tit., text paral.: lb. rom., engl. ISBN 978-9975-67-894-0

551.58(478)(084.42)=135.1=111

ISBN 978-9975-67-894-0

Maria Nedealcov, Valentin Rileanu, Lazr Chiric, Rodica Cojocari, Galina Mleavaia, Rodica Srbu, Ana Gmureac, Valentina Rusu, 2013 Fotografii: Valentin Rileanu, 2013 .E.P. tiina, 2013

3SEMNE CONVENIONALE. NOTE EXPLICATIVE . . . . . . . . .5INTRODUCERE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

TEMPERATURA

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n ianuarie . . . .8Temperatura medie a aerului n ianuarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n februarie . .10Temperatura medie a aerului n februarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n martie . . .12Temperatura medie a aerului n martie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n aprilie . . .14Temperatura medie a aerului n aprilie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n mai . . . . .16Temperatura medie a aerului n mai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n iunie . . . .18Temperatura medie a aerului n iunie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n iulie . . . . .20Temperatura medie a aerului n iulie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n august . . .22Temperatura medie a aerului n august . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n septembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Temperatura medie a aerului n septembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n octombrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Temperatura medie a aerului n octombrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n noiembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28Temperatura medie a aerului n noiembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n decembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30Temperatura medie a aerului n decembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n anotimpul de iarn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32Temperatura medie a aerului n anotimpul de iarn . . . . . . . . .33

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n anotimpul de primvar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34Temperatura medie a aerului n anotimpul de primvar . . . . .35

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n anotimpul de var . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36Temperatura medie a aerului n anotimpul de var . . . . . . . . .37

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii n anotimpul de toamn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38Temperatura medie a aerului n anotimpul de toamn . . . . . . .39

Estimarea spaio-temporal a temperaturii medii anuale . . . . .40Temperatura medie anual a aerului . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41

CUPRINS CONTENTS

CONVENTIONAL SIGNS. NOTES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

TEMPERATURE

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in January . . 8Average air temperature in January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in February. .10Average air temperature in February . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in March . . 12Average air temperature in March. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in April . . 14Average air temperature in April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in May . . 16Average air temperature in May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in June . . 18Average air temperature in June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in July . . 20Average air temperature in July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in August . .22Average air temperature in August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Average air temperature in September . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Average air temperature in October . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Average air temperature in November . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Average air temperature in December . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in the winter season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Average air temperature in the winter season . . . . . . . . 33

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in the spring season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Average air temperature in the spring season . . . . . . . . . 35

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in the summer season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Average air temperature in the summer season . . . . . . . 37

Spatio-temporal estimation of average temperature in the autumn season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Average air temperature in the autumn season . . . . . . . . 39

Spatio-temporal estimation of average annual temperature . . 40Annual average air temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

4PRECIPITAII

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n ianuarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n ianuarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n februarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n februarie . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n martie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n martie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n aprilie. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n aprilie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n mai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n mai . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n iunie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n iunie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n iulie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n iulie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n august . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n august . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n septembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n septembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . .59

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n octombrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n octombrie . . . . . . . . . . . . .61

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n noiembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n noiembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n decembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n decembrie . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n anotimpul de iarn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n anotimpul de iarn. . . . . . .67

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n anotimpul de primvar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n anotimpul de primvar . .69

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n anotimpul de var . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n anotimpul de var . . . . . . .71

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii n anotimpul de toamn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72Cantitatea medie de precipitaii n anotimpul de toamn . . . .73

Estimarea spaio-temporal a cantitii de precipitaii anuale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74Cantitatea medie de precipitaii anuale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75

PREciPiTATion

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in January . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Average amount of precipitation in January . . . . . . . . . . 43

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Average amount of precipitation in February . . . . . . . . . 45

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Average amount of precipitation in March . . . . . . . . . . 47

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Average amount of precipitation in April . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in May . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Average amount of precipitation in May . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Average amount of precipitation in June . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54Average amount of precipitation in July . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in August . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Average amount of precipitation in August . . . . . . . . . . 57

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in September . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Average amount of precipitation in September . . . . . . . . 59

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in October . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60Average amount of precipitation in October . . . . . . . . . 61

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62Average amount of precipitation in November . . . . . . . . 63

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64Average amount of precipitation in December . . . . . . . . 65

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in the winter season . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66Average amount of precipitation in the winter season . . . . 67

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in the spring season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68Average amount of precipitation in the spring season . . . . . 69

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in the summer season . . . . . . . . . . . . 70Average amount of precipitation in the summer season . . . 71

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of precipitation in the autumn season . . . . . . . . . . . . 72Average amount of precipitation in the autumn season . . . . 73

Spatio-temporal estimation of the amount of annual precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74Average amount of annual precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . 75

5SEmNE CONvENIONalE CONvENTIONal SIGNS

Ph Valoarea P a altitudinii absolute. Absolute altitude P-value

Ph2 Valoarea P a altitudinii absolute la ptrat. Squared absolute altitude P-value

Px Valoarea P a coordonatei X. X coordinate P-value

Py Valoarea P a coordonatei Y. Y coordinate P-value

Pmodel Valoarea P a modelului regresional. Regression model P-value

F Raportul dintre variana explicat de factori i cea neexplicat. Ratio between the variance explained by factors and the unexplained one

R2 Indic cte procente din varian snt explicate de model. Shows how many percent of the variance is explained by the model

SEE Eroarea standard de estimare. Standard Error of Estimate

MAE Eroarea medie absolut. Mean absolute error

Mr Valoarea medie a reziduurilor. Average value of the residuals

Rfin Coeficientul de corelaie dintre valorile observate i cele calculate. Coefficient of the correlation between observed and calculated values

NOTE EXPlICaTIvE NOTES

Chiinu Capitala Capital

Municipii Municipialities

Centre raionale District Centers

Staii meteorologice Meteorological Stations

Posturi meteorologice Precipitation Stations

Frontiera de stat State Boundary

Limitele administrativ-teritoriale Administrative-territorial boundaries

Ruri Rivers

Lacuri de acumulare Accumulation Lakes

Lacuri Lakes

6 Atlasul tematic conine un set de hri ce reflect repartiia spaial a temperaturii medii lunare, sezoniere i anuale a aerului, a cantitii medii de precipitaii atmosferice lunare, sezoniere i anuale pentru o perioad de 30 de ani (19812010). Ca mate-riale de baz au servit datele nregistrate la staiunile i postu-rile meteorologice ale Serviciului Hidrometeorologic de Stat. Toate hrile au fost elaborate la scara 1:1 500 000 n proiecia Transversal Mercator, utiliznd metoda modelrii cartografice. Datele colectate corespund nlimii adpostului meteorologic (2 m).

Fiecare hart este precedat de o pagin cu informaii supli-mentare privind estimarea tendinei de modificare a fiecrui indi-ce climatic pentru o perioad de mai mult de un secol (pentru temperatura aerului a fost luat n calcul perioada observaiilor instrumentale 18872010, iar pentru cantitatea de precipitaii atmosferice perioada 18912010), precum i unele teste statis-tice ce denot validitatea modelului cartografic utilizat. Graficele (Fig. 1., Fig. 2.) conin valorile medii (verde sau albastru), medii atenuate (rou), tendina (negru) i diferenele dintre valorile medii (anii 19812010) i norma climatic (anii 19611990). Macheta conine harta propriu-zis, legenda acesteia, unele elemente sta-tistice (inclusiv valorile extreme), histograma distribuiei spaiale a valorilor climatice, graficul Valori observate Valori calculate. Cel din urm prezint o eviden a exactitii modelului carto-grafic utilizat. Harta distribuiei spaiale a indicelui climatic mai conine reeaua hidrografic (simplificat) pentru a accentua rolul reliefului, de asemenea, este redat poziionarea staiunilor i pos-turilor meteorologice, a municipiilor, a centrelor raionale, precum i limitele raioanelor. Astfel, consumatorii de informaie climatic au posibilitatea de a cunoate temperatura i cantitatea de preci-pitaii n fiecare raion administrativ aparte. Harta mai conine i o imagine referitor la perioada de timp analizat (lun, anotimp, an). Valorile axei verticale a histogramei reprezint numrul de pixeli pe imaginea hrii. Fiecare pixel corespunde unei suprafee de teren de 4 ha, egal cu rezoluia hrii. Pe grafic snt comparate valorile nregistrate la staiile i posturile meteorologice cu cele obinute prin modelarea cartografic. Coeficientul de corelaie Rfin caracterizeaz intensitatea relaiei dintre aceste dou seturi de valori.

Modelarea cartografic a fost efectuat n dou etape. n prima etap s-a utilizat metoda regresiei multiple cu mai multe proceduri de pas, care a permis scoaterea n eviden a depen-denei valorilor ce reflect temperatura i precipitaiile atmosfe-rice de mai muli factori fizico-geografici locali (latitudinea i

The thematic atlas contains a set of maps reflecting the spa-tial distribution of monthly, seasonal and annual average air tem-perature, the average amount of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation for a period of 30 years (19812010). The data recorded from meteorological and precipitation stations of the State Hydrometeorological Service served as starting material. All maps were developed at the scale 1:1 500 000 in the Trans-verse Mercator projection, using cartographic modeling. The col-lected data correspond to the meteorological shelter height (2 m).

Each map is preceded by a page with additional information regarding the estimation of the modification tendency of each cli-matic index for a period of more than a century (the instrumental observations made during 18872010 were taken into account for the air temperature and those made during 18912010 were considered for the amount of atmospheric precipitation) and some statistical tests indicating the validity of the used cartographic model. The graphs (Fig. 1., Fig. 2.) contain the mean values (green or blue), the smoothed mean ones (red), the trend (black) and the differences between mean values (years 19812010) and cli-matic norm (years 19611990). The layout of the map contains the actual map, its legend, some statistical elements (including the extreme values), the histogram of spatial distribution of climate values, and the graph Observed values Calculated values. The last one presents the evidence of the accuracy of the cartographic model that was used. The map of spatial distribution of the cli-matic index also contains the (simplified) hydrographic network to emphasize the role of the relief. It is given the positioning of precipitation and meteorological stations, municipalities and district centers and the boundaries of districts. Thus, the climate information consumers have the opportunity to know the tem-perature and the amount of precipitation in each administrative district. The map also contains a picture relating to the analyzed period of time (month, season, and year). Values on vertical axis of histogram represent the number of pixels on the map image. Each pixel corresponds to an area of 4 hectares of land, equal to the map resolution. On the graph are compared the recorded values at meteorological stations with those obtained through cartographic modelling. The correlation coefficient Rfin indicates the intensity of the relationship between these two sets of values.

The cartographic modeling was performed in two stages. At the first stage it was used the method of multiple regression with several step procedures, that allowed to highlight the dependence of values reflecting the temperature and rainfall on several local physical-geographical factors (geographical latitude and longitude,

INTRODUCERE INTRODUCTION

7longitudinea geografic, altitudinea absolut i relativ, nclina-rea i orientarea versanilor). Ca indicatori ai validrii modelelor propuse au servit: testul semnificaiei P al fiecrui factor fizico-geografic luat aparte i al modelului n ntregime, coeficientul de determinare R2, eroarea standard de estimare SEE, eroarea medie absolut MAE. Cu ct valoarea P este mai mic, cu att nivelul de confiden CL (de ncredere) este mai mare. Valorii P 0,1 i corespunde CL = 90%. Pentru P 0,05 CL = 95%, iar pentru P 0,01 CL =99%. F este raportul dintre variana (dispersia) explicat de regresie i cea neexplicat. Coeficientul de determinare R2 reprezint procentajul instabilitii variabilei dependente, explicat de regresie. SEE este egal cu deviaia standard a reziduurilor (diferenele dintre valorile iniiale i cele obinute prin regresie), iar MAE cu media reziduurilor.

n etapa a doua au fost interpolate reziduurile regresiei (care snt determinate de factori necunoscui), utiliznd un interpolator local. Rezultatele acestei interpolri au fost sumate cu cele ale modelului de regresie. Interpolatorii locali iau n considerare numai datele din vecintatea punctului interpolat.

n cazul temperaturii aerului, ca interpolator, a fost utilizat procedura IDW (Distana Invers Ponderat). Influena punctelor nvecinate descrete n funcie de distana de la punctul interpolat. Exponentul funciei (de obicei egal cu 2) a fost optimizat.

Precipitaiile poart un caracter dinamic, dar i o variabilitate mare n spaiu. Din aceast cauz, a fost utilizat un set mai mare de date, iar ca interpolator local a fost utilizat Krigingul rezi-dual, care ine cont de structura spaial a datelor. n acest caz, a fost necesar ca reziduurile s ndeplineasc anumite condiii. n primul rnd, reziduurile trebuie s fie distribuite normal, iar media lor s fie egal cu 0. Coeficienii standardizai de asimetrie i exces necesit s fie plasai n intervalul 2. Analiza statistic denot c aceste condiii, n majoritatea cazurilor, snt ndeplinite. n cazul n care valorile standardizate ale reziduurilor se aflau n afara intervalului 2, aceste valori extreme (outliers) au fost eliminate din calcul (unele posturi meteorologice). n acelai timp, s-a inut cont de valorile trendului spaial, care, n majo-ritatea cazurilor, a fost aproximat cu un poligon de ordinul doi. O alt metod de testare utilizat a fost i validarea ncruciat, care a prevzut excluderea consecutiv a datelor i compararea rezultatelor cu datele iniiale. Analiza statistic a datelor a fost efectuat n programul Statgraphics Centurion XV, iar modelrile cartografice i elaborarea produsului final n cadrul programului ArcGIS 10.

relative and absolute altitude, aspect and angle of slopes). As indica-tors of model validation were used: the test of signifiance P of each physical-geographical factor taken separately and that of the entire model, the coefficient of determination R2, the standard error of esti-mation SEE, and the mean absolute error MAE served as indicators of the validation of models. The smaller the P value, the higher the confidence level CL. CL equal to 90% corresponds to value P 0,1. CL equal to 95% corresponds to P 0, 05, and CL equal to 99% corresponds to P 0,01. F is the ratio of the variance explained by regression to the inexplicable one. The coefficient of determination R2 represents the percentage of the dependent variable variability explained by regression. SEE is equal to the standard deviation of residues (differences between baseline values and those obtained via regression) and MAE is equal to the average residues.

At the second stage, the regression reziduals, that are deter-mined by unknown factors, were interpolated using a local interpolator. The results of this interpolation were summed with those of the regression model. The local interpolators take into account only the data neighboring with the interpolated point.

In the case of air temperature, the IDW procedure (Weighed Inverse Distance) was used as an interpolator. The influence of neighboring points decreases according to the distance from the interpolated point. The function exponent (usually equal to 2) was optimized.

The precipitation have a dynamic character and a high variabil-ity in space. Therefore, we used a larger set of data, and the Residual Kriging that takes into account the spatial structure of the data was used as a local interpolator. In this case, it was necessary that the residuals satisfy certain conditions. Firstly, the residues should be normally distributed and their mean should be equal to 0. The standardized coefficients of asymmetry and excess need to be placed in the range of 2. Statistical analysis shows that these conditions are satisfied in most cases. When the standardized values of residu-als were outside the range 2, these extreme values (outliers) were removed from the calculation (for some precipitation stations). At the same time, the values of the spatial trend, which in most cases was approximated to a polygon of second order, were taken into account. The cross validation was another testing method; it provided the subsequent exclusion of data and the comparison of the results with the original data. The statistical analysis of data was performed in the program Statgraphics Centurion XV, while the cartographic modelling and the final product development were performed within the program ArcGIS 10.

8Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Ianuarie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. January

Cele mai reci luniColdest months

Anii Years 1963 1954 1893 1924 1947 1950 1940 1987 1896 1889t, C -11,7 -10,3 -10,1 -9,9 -9,4 -8,7 -8,6 -8,5 -8,3 -8,0

Cele mai calde luniwarmest months

Anii Years 2007 1936 1895 1948 1921 1994 1899 1902 1975 1989t, C 3,9 3,8 3,0 2,7 2,0 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,3

Temperatura medie a lunii ianuarie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0174 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n ultimele dou decenii, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c, n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna ianuarie este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instru-mentale a fost luna ianuarie a anului 2007, cnd temperatura medie a fost de +3,9 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost luna ianuarie a anului 1963, cnd temperatura medie a atins valori de -11,7 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost selectate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea geografic. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9998. Sub aspect spaial, cursurile inferioare ale rurilor mici din sudul Republicii Moldova i al rului Prut se caracterizeaz prin cele mai nalte valori termice, acestea fiind cuprinse n limitele -1,4 -1,3 C. Cele mai sczute valori snt nregistrate n extremitatea de nord a republicii i la altitudine (n nord-estul i centrul rii), unde valorile snt de -3,4 -3,6 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n ianuarie este egal cu 2,3 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in January records an increase of 0,0174 C/year throughout 18872010. In the last two decades, the positive thermal deviations prevail over the negative ones; this means that at the current stage, the thermal regime in January is increasing (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instru-mental observations was the January of 2007, when the average temperature was +3,9 C. The coldest month was the January of 1963, when the average temperature was -11,7 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and the geographical latitude were selected as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9998. In spatial aspect, the lower courses of small rivers in southern Republic of Moldova and the Prut River are characterized by the highest thermal values which are within the limits of -1,4 -1,3 C. The lowest values are recorded in the extreme north of the country and at altitude (in the north-east and central regions) where the values are -3,4 -3,6 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in January is equal to 2,3 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n ianuarie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in January (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna ianuarie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in January referred to the baseline period 19611990

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N IANUARIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN JANUARY

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Ianuarie Model validation. January

Model Ph Py Pmodel F R2, % SEE, oC MAE, oC Mr, RegresieRegression 0,0046 0,0008 0,0001 25,77 82,4 0,22 0,15 0,00000

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Temperatura, CTemperature, C

Histograma temperaturiiHistogram of temperature

Graficul Valori observate Valori calculateGraph Observed values Calculated values

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10

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N FEBRUARIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN FEBRUARY

Temperatura medie a lunii februarie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0171 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n ultimele dou decenii, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c, n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna februarie este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instru-mentale a fost luna februarie a anului 2002, temperatura medie a fost de +4,9 C. Cea mai rece a fost luna februarie a anului 1929, cnd temperatura medie a atins valori de -13,5 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9999. Sub aspect spaial, cursurile inferioare ale rurilor mici din sudul Republicii Moldova i al rului Prut se caracterizeaz prin cele mai nalte valori termice, acestea fiind cuprinse n limitele -0,1 -0,5 C. Cele mai sczute valori snt nregistrate n extremitatea de nord a republicii i la altitudine (n nord-estul i centrul rii), unde valorile snt de -1,5 -2,3 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n februarie este egal cu 2,4 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Repu-blic of Moldova in February records an increase of 0,0171 C/year throughout 18872010. In the last two decades, the positive ther-mal deviations prevail over the negative anomalies; this means that at the current stage, the thermal regime in February is increasing (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instrumental observa-tions was the February of 2002, when the average air temperature was +4,9 C. The coldest month was the February of 1929, when the average temperature reached the values of -13,5 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9999. In spatial aspect, the lower courses of small rivers in southern Moldova and the Prut River are characterized by the highest thermal values, which are within the limits of -0,1 -0,5 C. The lowest values are recorded in the extreme north of the country and at altitude (in the north-east and central regions) where the values are -1,5 -2,3 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in February is equal to 2,4 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n februarie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in February (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna februarie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in January referred to the baseline period 19611990

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Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Februarie Model validation. February


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Februarie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. February


Anii Years 1929 1954 1985 1932 1956 1917 1976 1911 1909 1888t, C -13,5 -11,9 -10,0 -8,9 -8,9 -7,8 -7,6 -7,4 -6,7 -6,0


Anii Years 2002 1925 1995 1990 1989 1966 1977 1998 1910 1958t, C 4,9 4,7 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,2 3,1 3,1 2,6 2,5

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StatisticaStatisticsMinimum -2,3CMaximum 0,1CInterval Range 2,4CMedia Mean -1,1CDeviaia standard Standard deviation 0,48C



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ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N MARTIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MARCH

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n martie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in March (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna martie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

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Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Martie Model validation. March


Temperatura medie a lunii martie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0095 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n ultimele dou decenii, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna martie este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale este luna martie a anului 1990, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 9,0oC. Extrem de calde au fost i lunile martie din anii 2002, 2007, 2008, cnd valorile medii au fost de peste 7,0 oC. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1932 cu valoarea medie de -3,5 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9998. n sudul i sud-estul rii, temperatura medie este de 4,04,6 C. Extremitatea sudic n vile rurilor mici a avut valori de 4,54,6 C. Cele mai sczute valori snt caracteristice extremitii de nord a republicii i la altitudine, unde valorile ating 2,23,0 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii este egal cu 2,4 C.

The average air temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in March records an increase of 0,0095 C/year during 18872010. In the last two decades, the positive thermal deviations prevail over the negative anomalies; this shows that at the current stage, the thermal regime in March is increasing (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instrumental obser-vations was the March of 1990, when the average air temperature was 9,0 C. March was extremely warm in the years 2002, 2007, 2008, when the average values were more than 7,0 C. The coldest month was in 1932 when the temperature was -3,5 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin for the final model is equal to 0,9998. The average temperature in March in the southern and south-eastern parts of the country is 4,04,6 C. The southern extremity in the valleys of small rivers has temperature values of 4,54,6 C. The lowest temperature values are characteristic of the northern extremity and at altitude, where the temperature values reach 2,23,0C. The maximum difference of average temperatures is equal to 2,4 C.

Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Martie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. March


Anii Years 1932 1987 1929 1952 1969 1985 1996 1956 1907 1963t, C -3,5 -3,3 -3,0 -2,6 -2,0 -1,9 -1,6 -0,9 -0,8 -0,7


Anii Years 1990 2008 2002 2007 1989 1961 2001 1906 1913 1927t, C 9,0 7,3 7,2 7,1 6,9 6,5 6,0 5,9 5,9 5,9

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ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N APRILIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN APRIL

Temperatura medie a lunii aprilie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Repu-blicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0137 C/an pe parcur-sul anilor 18872010. n primul deceniu al secolului XXI, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c n etapa actual regimul termic din luna aprilie, mai ales din ultimii ani, este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale a fost luna aprilie a anului 1920, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 14,0 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1929, cu valoarea medie de 5,2 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9994. n vile rurilor mari i mici din partea de sud i cea de sud-est a republicii temperatura medie din luna aprilie este de 10,510,8 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 9,19,5 C, se observ fragmentar i doar la altitudini n prile de nord, nord-est i centru. Nordul republicii nsumeaz valori de 9,510,0 C. Restul teritoriului se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 10,0 i 10,5 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n aprilie este egal cu 1,7 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in April records an increase of 0,0137 C/year through-out 18872010. In the first decade of the XXIst century, the positive thermal deviations prevail over the negative anomalies; this means that at the current stage, the thermal regime in April, especially in recent years, is increasing (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instrumental observations was the April of 1920, when the average temperature was 14,0 C. The coldest month was in 1929, when the average temperature was 5,2 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9994. In the valleys of the large and small rivers in the south and south-east of the country, the average temperature in April is 10,510,8 C. The lowest temperature values of 9,19,5 C are fragmentarily observed and only at altitudes in the north, north-east and in the centre. In the north of the country, the temperature is 9,510,0 C. The remaining areas are characterized by thermal values between 10,0 and 10,5 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in April is equal to 1,7 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n aprilie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in April (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna aprilie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in April referred to the baseline period 19611990

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Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Aprilie Model validation. April


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Aprilie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. April


Anii Years 1929 1933 1893 1955 1896 1965 1931 1987 1907 1940t, C 5,2 5,8 6,0 6,1 6,3 6,3 7,0 7,0 7,1 7,2


Anii Years 1920 1972 1998 1950 1968 2000 1961 1966 1951 1994t, C 14,0 13,4 13,4 13,2 13,2 13,2 12,8 12,8 12,7 12,6

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ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N MAISPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY

Temperatura medie a lunii mai (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Repu-blicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0063 C/an pe par-cursul anilor 18872010. Dei se observ o tendin de majorare a acesteia, pentru luna mai este caracteristic o alternare frecvent a anomaliilor pozitive cu cele negative pe tot parcursul perioadei examinate (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale este luna mai a anului 2003, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 20,6 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1919, cu valoarea medie de 11,4 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9994. n vile rurilor mari i mici din partea de sud i cea de sud-est a republicii temperatura medie din luna mai este de 16,516,9 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 15,0 15,5 C, se observ fragmentar i doar la altitudini: n prile de nord, nord-est i centru. Nordul republicii a avut valori de 15,516,5oC. Restul teritoriului se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 16,0 i 16,5 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n luna mai este egal cu 1,9 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in May records an increase of 0,0063 C/year during 18872010. Although there is a tendency to its increase, a frequent alternation of positive and negative anomalies during observed period is characteristic of May (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instrumental observations was the May of 2003, when the average air temperature was 20,6 C. The coldest month was in 1919, when the average value of the temperature was 11,4 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9994. In the valleys of the large and small rivers in the south and south-east of the country, the average temperature in May is 16,516,9 C. The lowest values of 15,015,5 C are observed fragmentarily and only at altitudes: in the north, north-east and in the centre. The north of Moldova has values of 15,516,5 C. The remaining areas are characterized by thermal values between 16,016,5C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in May is equal to 1,9 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna mai (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in May (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna mai raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in May referred to the baseline period 19611990

\ [

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Mai Model validation. May


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Mai Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. May


Anii Years 1919 1912 1933 1940 1978 1980 1902 1918 1991 1917t, C 11,4 12,7 13,2 13,2 13,2 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 13,7


Anii Years 2003 1958 1907 1996 2007 1963 1923 1968 1924 1949t, C 20,6 20,1 19,5 19,3 18,9 18,7 18,6 18,4 18,3 18,1

t,C

t,C

AniiYears

AniiYears

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18

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N IUNIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN JUNE

Temperatura medie a lunii iunie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Repu-blicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,011 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n primul deceniu al secolului XXI, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c, n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna iunie, mai ales din ultimii ani, este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale a fost luna iunie a anului 2007, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 23,2 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1919, cu valoarea medie de 16,4 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9996. n vile rurilor mari i mici din partea de sud i cea de sud-est a republicii, temperatura medie din luna iunie este de 20,520,9 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 17,8 18,5 C, se observ fragmentar i doar la altitudini n prile de nord, nord-est i centru. Nordul republicii a avut valori de 17,819,0 C. Restul teritoriului se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 19,0 i 20,0 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n iunie este egal cu 3,1 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in June records an increase of 0,011 C/year throughout 18872010. In the first decade of the XXIst century, the posi-tive thermal deviations prevail over the negative anomalies; this means that at the current stage, the thermal regime in June, espe-cially in the recent years, is increasing (Fig. 2). The hottest month in the series of instrumental observations was the June of 2007, when the average temperature was 23,2C. The coldest month was in 1919 when the average air temperature was 16,4 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9996. In the valleys of the large and small rivers in the south and south-east of the country, the average temperature in June is 20,520,9 C. The lowest values, 17,818,5 C, are fragmentarily observed at altitudes in the north, north-east, and in the center. The northern part of the country has temperature values of 17,819,0 C. The remaining areas are characterized by thermal values between 19,0 and 20,0 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in June is equal to 3,1 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna iunie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in June (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna iunie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in June referred to the baseline period 19611990

\ [

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Iunie Model validation. June

Model Ph Py Pmodel F R2, % SEE, oC MAE, oC Mr, RegresieRegression 0,0014 0,0013 0,0000 28,18 83,7 0,28 0,21 -0,00007

Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Iunie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. June


Anii Years 1919 1933 1949 1887 1894 1890 1913 1966 1920 1911t, C 16,4 16,8 16,8 17 17,1 17,3 17,3 17,4 17,5 17,7


Anii Years 2007 1946 1964 1924 1999 1954 1892 2009 1953 1979t, C 23,2 22,7 22,7 22,5 22,4 22,3 22 21,7 21,6 21,5

t,C

t,C

AniiYears

AniiYears

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20

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N IULIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN JULY

Temperatura medie a lunii iulie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republi-cii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0074 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n primul deceniu al secolului XXI, devierile termice pozitive prevaleaz asupra anomaliilor negative, ceea ce denot c, n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna iulie, mai ales din ultimii ani, este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale a fost luna iulie a anului 2007, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 25,8 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1912, cu valoarea medie de 18,6 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9992. n vile rurilor mari i mici din partea de sud i cea de sud-est a republicii, temperatura medie din luna iulie este de 22,023,2 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 19,820,0 C, se observ n extremitatea de nord i doar la altitudini n prile de nord, nord-est i centru. Nordul republicii a avut valori de 19,821,0 C. Partea central se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 20,0 i 22,0 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n iulie este egal cu 3,4 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Repub-lic of Moldova in July records an increase of 0,0074 C/year throughout 18872010. In the first decade of the XXIst century, positive thermal deviations prevail over the negative anomalies; this means that at present, the thermal regime in July, especially in recent years, is increasing (Fig. 2). The hottest month in the series of the instrumental observations was the July of 2007, when the average air temperature was 25,8 C. The coldest month was in 1912 when the average temperature was 18,6 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9992. In the valleys of the large and small rivers in the south and south-east of the Republic, the average temperature in July is 22,023,2 C. The lowest values, 19,820,0 C, are observed only in the far north and at altitudes in the north, north-east, and in the center. The north of Moldova has temperature values between 19,8 and 21,0 C. The central part is characterized by thermal values between 20,0 and 22,0 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in July is equal to 3,4 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna iulie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in July (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna iulie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in July referred to the baseline period 19611990

\ [

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Iulie Model validation. July


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Iulie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. July


Anii Years 1912 1917 1979 1913 1984 1902 1978 1933 1982 1935t, C 18,6 18,7 18,8 18,9 18,9 19,2 19,4 19,5 19,5 19,6


Anii Years 2007 1936 1959 1999 2001 1938 1994 2002 2009 1995t, C 25,8 25,2 24,5 24,5 24,5 24,2 24,2 24,2 23,9 23,4

t,C

t,C

AniiYears

AniiYears

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22

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N AUGUSTSPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN AUGUST

Temperatura medie a lunii august (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0115 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. n primul deceniu al secolului XXI, devierile termice pozitive se nregistreaz practic n fiecare an, ceea ce denot c, n etapa actual, regimul termic din luna august semnificativ este n cretere (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun din seria observaiilor instrumentale a fost luna august a anului 1992, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 25,1 C, iar luna august a anilor 2010 i 2007 ocup poziii nsemnate n topul celor mai calde luni din seria observaiilor instrumentale. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1934, cu valoarea medie de 16,2 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9999. n extremitatea de sud valoarea termic este de 22,022,8 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 19,120,5 C, se observ n extremitatea de nord i la altitudini, n nord-estul i centrul rii. Partea central se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 20,0 i 22,0 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n august este egal cu 3,7 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova in August increases of 0,0115 C/year du-ring 18872010. In the first decade of the XXIst century, positive thermal deviations are recorded almost every year; this means that at the current stage, the temperature in August has been significantly increasing (Fig. 2). The warmest month in the series of instrumental observations was the August of 1992, when the average temperature was 25,1 C; the August of 2010 and 2007 occupy significant positions in the top of the hottest months in the series of instrumental observations. The coldest month was in 1934, when the average temperature was 16,2 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9999. In the extreme south, the thermal values constitute 22,022,8 C. The lowest values, 19,120,5 C, are observed in the extreme north and at altitude, in the north-east and in the center of the country. The center is characterized by thermal values between 20,0 and 22,0C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in August is equal to 3,7 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna august (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in August (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna august raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in August referred to the baseline period 19611990

\ [

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. August Model validation. August


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. August Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. August


Anii Years 1934 1926 1976 1915 1912 1987 1914 1906 1919 1933t, C 16,2 17,2 17,7 17,8 18,3 18,3 18,4 18,6 18,6 18,7


Anii Years 1992 2010 1946 2007 1951 2008 1890 1929 2001 1905t, C 25,1 24,9 24,8 23,9 23,8 23,8 23,6 23,6 23,5 23,4

t,C

t,C

AniiYears

AniiYears

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24

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N SEPTEMBRIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER

Temperatura medie a lunii septembrie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0049 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. Analiza devierilor termice deno-t frecventa alternan contrarie. n ultimii 5 ani a crescut rolul anomaliilor pozitive, ceea ce permite s se concluzioneze c luna septembrie n ultimii ani devine mai cald (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun a fost nregistrat n 1994, cnd temperatura a fost de 20,5 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1934, cu valoarea medie de 11,0 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9999. n partea de sud a rii, temperatura este de 16,5 17,4 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 14,215,5 C, se observ n nordul rii. Partea central se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 15,5 i 16,5 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n septembrie este egal cu 3,2 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Repub-lic of Moldova in September records an increase of 0,0049 C/year throughout 18872010. Analysis of thermal deviations shows that these are characterized by their frequent contrastive alternation. In the last 5 years, the role of positive anomalies has increased and this allows us to conclude that September is getting warmer in the recent years (Fig. 2). September was the warmest in 1994, when the temperature was 20,5 C. It was the coldest in 1934, when the average temperature was 11,0 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9999. In the south of the country, the temperature constitutes 16,517,4 C. The lowest temperature, 14,215,5 C, is observed in the north of the country. The central part is characterized by thermal values between 15,5 and 16,5 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in September is equal to 3,2 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna septembrie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in September (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna septembrie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in September referred to the baseline period 19611990

\ [

Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Septembrie Model validation. September


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Septembrie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. September


Anii Years 1934 1996 1914 1889 1933 1959 1912 1915 1921 1971t, C 11,0 12,4 12,7 12,8 13,2 13,3 13,4 13,5 13,6 13,6


Anii Years 1994 1892 1909 1924 1975 1932 1937 1918 1927 2009t, C 20,5 20,2 19,1 19,1 19 18,9 18,9 18,8 18,7 18,7

t,C

t,C

AniiYears

AniiYears

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TEMPERATURA MEDIE A AERULUI N SEPTEMBRIEAVERAGE AIR TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER

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26

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N OCTOMBRIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN OCTOBER

Temperatura medie a lunii octombrie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0015 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. Analiza devierilor termice demon-streaz c, pentru luna octombrie, acestea se caracterizeaz prin predominarea anomaliilor pozitive asupra celor negative, ceea ce denot faptul c aceast lun, n ultimii ani, devine mai cald (Fig. 2). Cea mai cald lun a fost nregistrat n 1896, cnd tem-peratura medie a fost de 15,0 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1920, cu valoarea medie de 5,0 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9999. n extremitatea de sud a rii, temperatura este de 10,511,5 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 8,79,5 C, se observ n nordul rii. Partea central se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 9,5 i 10,5 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n octombrie este egal cu 2,8 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Repub-lic of Moldova in October records an increase of 0,0015 C/year during 18872010. Analysis of the thermal deviations shows that in October these are characterized by the predominance of the positive anomalies over the negative ones; this shows that in recent years, this month is getting warmer (Fig. 2). October was the warmest in 1896, when the average temperature was 15,0 C. It was the coldest in 1920, when the average temperature was 5,0 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9999. In the extreme south of the country, the temperature is 10,511,5 C. The lowest values of 8,79,5 C are observed in the north of the country. The central part is characterized by thermal values between 9,5 and 10,5 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures in October is equal to 2,8 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna octombrie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in October (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna octombrie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in October referred to the baseline period 19611990

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Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Octombrie Model validation. October

Model Ph Py Pmodel F R2, % SEE, oC MAE, oC Mr, RegresieRegression 0,2293 0,0000 0,0000 37,64 87,3 0,24 0,17 -0,00007

Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Octombrie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. October


Anii Years 1920 1912 1946 1947 1951 1934 1922 1976 2010 1936t, C 5,0 5,7 5,9 6,2 6,2 6,9 7,3 7,3 7,5 7,6


Anii Years 1896 1918 1935 1966 1932 1923 1960 1967 1984 1892t, C 15,0 14,9 14,1 14,1 14,0 13,5 13,4 12,7 12,6 12,4

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28

ESTIMAREA SPAIO-TEMPORAL A TEMPERATURII MEDII N NOIEMBRIESPATIO-TEMPORAL ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN NOVEMBER

Temperatura medie a lunii noiembrie (Fig. 1), pe teritoriul Republicii Moldova, nregistreaz o cretere cu 0,0103 C/an pe parcursul anilor 18872010. Analiza devierilor termice indic predominarea anomaliilor pozitive asupra celor negative, n spe-cial n primul deceniu al secolului XXI, ceea ce denot faptul c aceast lun, n ultimii ani, devine mai cald (Fig. 2). Constatm, n acelai timp, c cea mai cald lun a fost nregistrat n 2010, cnd temperatura medie a fost de 10,3 C. Cea mai rece lun a fost n anul 1934, cu valoarea medie de -3,1 C (Tab. 1).

n modelul de regresie pentru anii 19812010, ca variabile independente semnificative au fost utilizate altitudinea absolut i latitudinea. Indicatorii statistici (Tab. 2) explic calitatea modelului de regresie propus. Rfin al modelului final este egal cu 0,9998. n extremitatea de sud a rii, temperatura este de 4,55,2 C. Cele mai sczute valori, de 2,53,5 C, se observ n nordul rii. Partea central se caracterizeaz prin valori termice cuprinse ntre 3,0 i 5,2 C. Diferena maxim n teritoriu a temperaturilor medii n noiembrie este egal cu 2,7 C.

The average temperature (Fig. 1) on the territory of the Repub-lic of Moldova in November records an increase of 0,0103 C/year throughout 18872010. Analysis of thermal deviations points to the predominance of the positive anomalies over the negative ones, especially in the first decade of the XXIst, century, which shows that in recent years, this month is getting warmer (Fig. 2). We note at the same time that November was the warmest in 2010, when the average temperature was 10,3 C. It was the coldest in 1934, when the average temperature was -3,1 C (Tab. 1).

The absolute altitude and latitude were used as significant independent variables in the regression model for 19812010. The statistical indicators (Tab. 2) explain the quality of the proposed regression model. Rfin of the final model is equal to 0,9998. In the extreme south of the country, the temperature constitutes 4,55,2 C. The lowest values of 2,53,5 C are observed in the north of the country. The central part is characterized by thermal values between 3,0 and 5,2 C. The maximum difference of average temperatures on the territory in November is equal to 2,7 C.

Fig. 1 Tendina de modificare a temperaturii medii n luna noiembrie (18872010)

The modification tendency of the average temperature in November (18872010)

Fig. 2 Evoluia anomaliilor termice n luna noiembrie raportate la perioada de referin 19611990

Evolution of thermal anomalies in November referred to the baseline period 19611990

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Tab. 2. Validarea modelului. Noiembrie Model validation. November


Tab. 1. Topul celor mai reci i al celor mai calde luni nregistrate n perioada 18872010. Noiembrie Top of the coldest and warmest months recorded in the period 18872010. November

C

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