UE CA Actor Global / dimensiunea Economica

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    Uniunea European ca actor global

    Note de curs

    Gabriela Carmen Pascariu

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    Repere Shared values: liberty, democracy, respect for

    human rights and fundamental freedoms, and therule of law.

    Largest economic body in the world.

    Worlds most successful model for advancing peace and democracy.

    A unique institution Member States voluntarilycede national sovereignty in many areas to carryout common policies and governance.

    Not a super-state to replace existing states, nor justan organization for international cooperation.

    Worlds most open market for goods andcommodities from developing countries.

    27

    7

    30

    490million

    State Membre

    Populaia

    Procentul populaiei n total mondial

    Procent in GDPmondial

    55Pondere n asistena Mondial pentrudezvoltare

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    1951

    State fondatoare

    BelgiumFrance

    GermanyItaly

    LuxembourgNetherlands

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    2007

    UE n prezent

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    UE n viitor

    Candidate Countries

    Croatia

    Former YugoslavRepublic of Macedonia

    Turkey

    Potential

    Candidate Countries

    Albania

    Bosnia & Herzegovina

    Montenegro

    Serbia including Kosovounder UN Security Council

    Resolution 1244

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    UE, de la 6 la 27 de state membre

    1957 2007 Nr. de state 6 27 Populatie- total 174 million 493 million Pondere populaie 6% 7,5% Pondere n GDP 30% Pondere n comer Limbi 4 23

    Enlargement has been asuccess story for theEuropean Union and

    Europe as a whole. It hashelped to overcome thedivision of Europe and contributed to peace and stability throughout thecontinent.

    European Council

    Declaration Dec. 15, 2006

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    PIB i PIB/loc. (comparativ)

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    PIB la preul pieei

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    Dinamica economic

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    Dispariti intra-EU importante

    GDP/capita, PPS, 2008

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    Populaie n declin-% mondial

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    Piramida vrstei, 2008

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    Piramida vrstei, 2008

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    Presiune pe buget

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    Economic and Trade Indicators 2005: Main Countries

    Countries/economy

    GDP(US $bn)

    GDPGrowth(%)

    Population(mn)

    PerCapitaGDP(US$)

    PPPGDP(US$bn)

    Merchandise

    Exports(US$

    bn)

    Service

    Exports

    (US$bn)

    TotalMerchTrade(US$

    bn)

    Service

    Trade(US$

    bn)

    Trade/

    GDP(%)

    FDIInflo

    w(US$

    bn)

    FDI/GDP(%)

    World 44384,8 3,6 6400,0 6835,1 61027,5 10431,0 2415,0 21214,0 4760,0 47,8 916,3 2,1

    EU** 12815,6 ***1.8 459,3 27902,5 12097,3 1333,7 494,1 2806,4 919,0 21,9 421,9 3,3

    US 12445,1 3,2 296,5 41973,4 12409,5 906,0 354,0 2641,0 635,2 21,2 99,4 0,8

    China 2228,9 9,9 1304,5 1708,6 8572,7 761,9 73,9 1422,0 157,1 63,8 72,4 3,2

    Indonesia 287,2 5,6 220,6 1302,2 847,4 86,2 5,1 155,7 22,3 54,2 5,3 1,8

    Malaysia 130,1 5,3 25,3 5134,4 274,8 140,9 19,0 255,6 40,5 196,5 4,0 3,1

    Philippines 98,3 5,1 83,1 1182,9 408,6 41,3 4,5 88,7 10,3 99,2 1,1 1,2

    Singapore 116,8 6,4 4,4 26836,1 130,2 229,6 45,1 429,7 89,1 367,9 20,1 17,2

    Thailand 176,6 4,5 64,2 2749,4 549,3 110,1 20,5 228,3 48,0 129,3 3,7 2,1

    Vietnam 52,4 8,4 83,0 631,3 254,0 31,6 3,9 68,1 8,6 130,0 2,0 3,8

    ASEAN-6 861,4 5,9 480,6 1792,3 2464,3 639,7 98,1 1226,1 218,8 142,3 36,2 4,2

    India 785,5 8,5 1094,6 717,6 3815,5 95,1 56,1 229,9 108,3 29,3 6,6 0,8

    Japan 4505,9 2,7 128,0 35214,5 3943,7 595,0 107,9 1109,8 240,5 24,6 2,8 >0.1

    Korea 787,6 4,0 48,3 16309,0 1056,1 284,4 43,9 545,7 101,7 69,3 7,2 0,9

    Taipei 346,4 4,1 22,7 15291,8 - 197,8 25,6 380,3 57,1 109,8 1.6* 0,5

    HongKong 177,7 7,3 6,9 25593,6 214,5 292,1 62,2 592,3 94,6 333,3 35,9 20,2

    TOTAL 34954,1 - 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 - 34954,1 -

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    Ponderea in economia globala

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    Contributia la dinamica economica

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    Ponderea C/D in PIB

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    Investiia C/D

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    Dependenta energetica

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    Comerul exterior Strengths: Rather stable World Market Share Trade Balance more or less in equilibrium (deficit due to energy

    prices) Increasing surplus for industrial products Very good performance in exports of up-market products

    Weaknesses: Suboptimal geographical orientation of exports Loosing ground regarding exports of high technology products

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    % n total exporturi mondiale

    0,0

    5,0

    10,0

    15,0

    20,0

    25,0

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    % share of EU in World Exports % share of USA in World Exports% share of Japan in World Exports % share of China in World Exports

    Source: Eurostat (Comext) , WTO, IMF

    %

    B l i l

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    Balana comercial EU/China/USA

    -5,0 -3,3

    -17,4 -43,8 -56,8-138,9

    -90,7-41,5 -61,9 -67,6

    -119,7-183,6

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Exports Imports(Billions of euro)

    21 ,8 20,247,4 50,1 42,0 48,3 50,8

    65,3 58,2 66,9

    128,8

    193,6

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Billions of eur oBalance Imports Ex ports

    -135,1 -143,5 -174,3 -221,2-319,2

    -486,0 -482,9 -522,4 -500,3 -558,3-654,2

    1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

    Exports Imports(Billions of euro)

    EU

    USA China

    B l d l i

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    24

    -21

    25 33 40 5785 56 17

    -55 -22

    35 30 1

    -51-103-200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1.000

    1.200

    1.400

    1.600

    1.800

    2.000

    1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Credit, Goods+services Debit, Goods+services

    Balana de pli- EU/China/USA

    3,9

    -9,8

    6,4 9,1 13,837,8 39,1 28,7 3 1, 3 3 1, 4 39,5 31,9 39,6

    100,3

    166,4

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Credit, Goods+services Debit, Goods+services

    I

    EU

    China

    -30,2 -60,0 -82,8 -73,7 -81,9 -95,2-146,8

    -247,1

    -408,8 -405,1 -445,3 -437,5-491,4

    -576,1 -609,5

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Cred it , Goods+services Debit , Goods+services

    : I

    USA

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    EU 25 Bilateral Export and I mpor ts Goods Trade with OtherMain Partners in the World 2005 (mn EUR/shares)

    Country/ economy

    2005

    ImportsShare of total

    EU imports

    ExportsShare of total

    EU imports

    Total = Imports

    & Exports

    US 162.545 13,75 251.699 23,69 414.244

    Japan 73.417 6,21 43.631 4,11 117.048

    China 158.481 13,40 51.646 4,86 210.127

    Korea, Republic of 33.879 2,87 20.156 1,90 54.035

    India 18.915 1,60 21.092 1,98 40.007

    ASEAN 71.137 6,02 45.012 4,24 116.149

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    EU 25 Bilateral I mport and Expor ts Services Trade with Other MainPartners in the World 2005 (bn EUR)

    Country/ economy

    2005

    Imports ExportsTotal = Imports &

    Exports

    US 114.060 119.830 233.890

    Japan 11.790 19.907 31.697

    China 8.778 10.952 19.729

    Korea, Republic of 3.402 5.698 9.100

    India 4.643 5.085 9.728

    ASEAN 13.475 14.687 28.162

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    Soldul balanei pe principalii

    parteneri

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    A DynamicTransatlantic Economy

    EU and U.S. together account for 40%of total global trade (more than $1.5

    billion in transatlantic trade every day).

    The $3 trillion EU-U.S. transatlanticeconomy employs 14 million workers on both sides of the Atlantic.

    In 2005, Europe accounted for roughlytwo-thirds of total global investmentflows into the U.S. by far the mostsignificant source of foreign investmentin the U.S. economy.

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    EU- Balana comercial ptr. Prod. Manufact.( bn)

    57,0

    -2,8

    29,7

    39,5

    -26,2

    4,7

    6,2

    5,5

    -2,6

    150,2

    29,9

    69,0

    77,6

    -43,0

    2,8

    7,4

    7,2

    0,0

    -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200

    Manufactured products

    Machinery

    Transport equipment

    Chemicals

    Tex tiles and clothing

    Iron and steel

    Paper and a rticles of papers

    Non-metal mineralmanufactures

    Others products19992006

    Source: EUROSTAT

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    Piaa produselor up-market ntrirea poziiei pe pia (specializri intra-ramur i pe produs)

    performan ridicat Domeniu cheie de dezvoltare: din totalul exporturilor europene; 1/3 dinimporturi

    EU world market share in up-market products: 32% (USA: 18%; Japan: 15%)

    Down-market products

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    E U 2 5 U S

    A C h

    i n a J a p

    a n

    O t h . D

    e v B R I

    O t h . E

    m . R o

    W

    1995 2004

    Up-market products

    05

    1015

    2025

    30

    E U 2 5 U S

    A C h

    i n a J a p

    a n

    O t h . D

    e v B R I

    O t h . E m

    . R o

    W

    1995 2004

    World market share for up-market and down-market products (%) 1995-2004 Source: CEPII BACI

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    Slab poziionare pe pieele dinamice O orientare geografic a exporturilor nefavorabil (slab poziionar

    pe pieele emergente) UE export mai mult pe pieele care au crescut ntr -un ritm mai lent

    dect media mondial

    % of total exports going to the most/least dynamicmarkets

    Contribution to the riseof world imports over a

    ten year period

    US Japan EU25

    67.6%

    0.7%

    On 10 most dynamicmarkets *

    78% 76% 46.9%

    On 20 least dynamicmarkets **

    1.8% 3.3% 5.3%

    Source: Chelem Database

    Share of most/least dynamic markets in EU, US and Japan exports

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    Slab poziionare pe pieele Hi-tech

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    ISD

    Principalul investitor al lumii Investitor net de capital (balan deficitar) SUA

    principala surs pentru intrri ISD SUA principala destinaie a ISD UE principalul investitor n economia SUA Destinaii principale ale intrrilor: Frana,

    Germania, UK, Olanda, Spania, Italia, Suedia,Polonia

    Piee emitente principale: Frana, UK, Germania,Olanda, Spania, Italia

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    ISD fluxuri de intrri

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    ISD fluxuri de ieiri

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    European companies are the leadingforeign investors in the U.S.

    The UK, Germany, France, and the Netherlands top four sources of jobs created by foreign investmentin the United States.

    American companies invest far morein EU countries than in Asia.

    U.S. businesses make 5 times the profit in the Netherlands - alone -as they make in China.

    BMWs assembly plant is South Carolinas largest private sector employer.

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    -5 000

    5 000

    10 000

    15 000

    20 000

    25 000

    30 000

    35 000

    IFDI OFDI Balance

    V a

    l u e

    US Japan China Korea, Republic of India ASEAN

    EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Flows with Partners (2005)

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    EU25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks w ith Partne rs (2005)

    100 000

    200 000

    300 000

    400 000

    500 000

    600 000

    700 000

    800 000

    900 000

    IFDI OFDI

    V a l u e

    US Japan China Korea, Republic of India ASEAN

    EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks with Partners (2005)

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    O economie afectat de criz

    Scderi ale PIB Scderi ale ocupri

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    What History Tells Us

    Cycles keep repeating, despite changes in law, despitewarfare, despite human-caused and natural disasters

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    The Modern Era

    Despite ongoing shocks to the globaleconomic system, the Great Depression hasnot been repeated. Have we been smart or justluck ?

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    Grim prospects for EU (worse

    than US)

    Note: following charts from European Commission Spring Forecast

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    PIB i comerul exterior

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    PIB, consumul i investiiile

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    Evoluia FBCF

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    PIB, ocupare, omaj

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    Severe lagged impact on

    (un)employment

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    Economic Growth Rates

    5.1

    2.93.3

    11.6

    7.1

    5

    2.2

    3.1

    11.9

    6.3

    4.1

    1.31.8

    9.7

    6

    3.9

    0.8

    1.7

    9.8

    5.5

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    World US European Union China Malaysia

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

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    Inflation Rates

    3.6

    3.2

    2.3

    1.5

    3.63.95

    2.9

    2.4

    4.8

    2.1

    4.7

    3.1 3.1

    5.9

    2.4

    3.6

    22.2

    3.6

    2.5

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    World US Euro area China Malaysia

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

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    Interest Rates5.3 5.3

    2.8

    3.6

    4.3

    5.0

    5.3

    0.4

    0.91.1

    1.5

    3.73.5 3.6

    3.8

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    2006 2007 2008 2009

    US dollar

    Euro

    Yen

    Malaysia

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    PIB

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    FBCF

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    Rata de ocupare

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    Dinamica productiei industriale

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    Rata somajului

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    Dinamica in constructii

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    O economie caracterizata de decalaje

    Disparita i naionale Dispariti regionale

    Dimensiune economic, social, spaial Indicatori:- PIB (nivel, structur, dinamic)

    - demografie/piaa muncii - Productivitate/competitivitate- Cercetare/dezvoltare tehnologic

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