UE CA Actor Global / dimensiunea Economica
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Transcript of UE CA Actor Global / dimensiunea Economica
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Uniunea European ca actor global
Note de curs
Gabriela Carmen Pascariu
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Repere Shared values: liberty, democracy, respect for
human rights and fundamental freedoms, and therule of law.
Largest economic body in the world.
Worlds most successful model for advancing peace and democracy.
A unique institution Member States voluntarilycede national sovereignty in many areas to carryout common policies and governance.
Not a super-state to replace existing states, nor justan organization for international cooperation.
Worlds most open market for goods andcommodities from developing countries.
27
7
30
490million
State Membre
Populaia
Procentul populaiei n total mondial
Procent in GDPmondial
55Pondere n asistena Mondial pentrudezvoltare
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1951
State fondatoare
BelgiumFrance
GermanyItaly
LuxembourgNetherlands
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2007
UE n prezent
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UE n viitor
Candidate Countries
Croatia
Former YugoslavRepublic of Macedonia
Turkey
Potential
Candidate Countries
Albania
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Montenegro
Serbia including Kosovounder UN Security Council
Resolution 1244
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UE, de la 6 la 27 de state membre
1957 2007 Nr. de state 6 27 Populatie- total 174 million 493 million Pondere populaie 6% 7,5% Pondere n GDP 30% Pondere n comer Limbi 4 23
Enlargement has been asuccess story for theEuropean Union and
Europe as a whole. It hashelped to overcome thedivision of Europe and contributed to peace and stability throughout thecontinent.
European Council
Declaration Dec. 15, 2006
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PIB i PIB/loc. (comparativ)
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PIB la preul pieei
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Dinamica economic
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Dispariti intra-EU importante
GDP/capita, PPS, 2008
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Populaie n declin-% mondial
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Piramida vrstei, 2008
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Piramida vrstei, 2008
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Presiune pe buget
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Economic and Trade Indicators 2005: Main Countries
Countries/economy
GDP(US $bn)
GDPGrowth(%)
Population(mn)
PerCapitaGDP(US$)
PPPGDP(US$bn)
Merchandise
Exports(US$
bn)
Service
Exports
(US$bn)
TotalMerchTrade(US$
bn)
Service
Trade(US$
bn)
Trade/
GDP(%)
FDIInflo
w(US$
bn)
FDI/GDP(%)
World 44384,8 3,6 6400,0 6835,1 61027,5 10431,0 2415,0 21214,0 4760,0 47,8 916,3 2,1
EU** 12815,6 ***1.8 459,3 27902,5 12097,3 1333,7 494,1 2806,4 919,0 21,9 421,9 3,3
US 12445,1 3,2 296,5 41973,4 12409,5 906,0 354,0 2641,0 635,2 21,2 99,4 0,8
China 2228,9 9,9 1304,5 1708,6 8572,7 761,9 73,9 1422,0 157,1 63,8 72,4 3,2
Indonesia 287,2 5,6 220,6 1302,2 847,4 86,2 5,1 155,7 22,3 54,2 5,3 1,8
Malaysia 130,1 5,3 25,3 5134,4 274,8 140,9 19,0 255,6 40,5 196,5 4,0 3,1
Philippines 98,3 5,1 83,1 1182,9 408,6 41,3 4,5 88,7 10,3 99,2 1,1 1,2
Singapore 116,8 6,4 4,4 26836,1 130,2 229,6 45,1 429,7 89,1 367,9 20,1 17,2
Thailand 176,6 4,5 64,2 2749,4 549,3 110,1 20,5 228,3 48,0 129,3 3,7 2,1
Vietnam 52,4 8,4 83,0 631,3 254,0 31,6 3,9 68,1 8,6 130,0 2,0 3,8
ASEAN-6 861,4 5,9 480,6 1792,3 2464,3 639,7 98,1 1226,1 218,8 142,3 36,2 4,2
India 785,5 8,5 1094,6 717,6 3815,5 95,1 56,1 229,9 108,3 29,3 6,6 0,8
Japan 4505,9 2,7 128,0 35214,5 3943,7 595,0 107,9 1109,8 240,5 24,6 2,8 >0.1
Korea 787,6 4,0 48,3 16309,0 1056,1 284,4 43,9 545,7 101,7 69,3 7,2 0,9
Taipei 346,4 4,1 22,7 15291,8 - 197,8 25,6 380,3 57,1 109,8 1.6* 0,5
HongKong 177,7 7,3 6,9 25593,6 214,5 292,1 62,2 592,3 94,6 333,3 35,9 20,2
TOTAL 34954,1 - 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 34954,1 - 34954,1 -
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Ponderea in economia globala
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Contributia la dinamica economica
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Ponderea C/D in PIB
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Investiia C/D
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Dependenta energetica
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Comerul exterior Strengths: Rather stable World Market Share Trade Balance more or less in equilibrium (deficit due to energy
prices) Increasing surplus for industrial products Very good performance in exports of up-market products
Weaknesses: Suboptimal geographical orientation of exports Loosing ground regarding exports of high technology products
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% n total exporturi mondiale
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
% share of EU in World Exports % share of USA in World Exports% share of Japan in World Exports % share of China in World Exports
Source: Eurostat (Comext) , WTO, IMF
%
B l i l
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23
Balana comercial EU/China/USA
-5,0 -3,3
-17,4 -43,8 -56,8-138,9
-90,7-41,5 -61,9 -67,6
-119,7-183,6
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports Imports(Billions of euro)
21 ,8 20,247,4 50,1 42,0 48,3 50,8
65,3 58,2 66,9
128,8
193,6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Billions of eur oBalance Imports Ex ports
-135,1 -143,5 -174,3 -221,2-319,2
-486,0 -482,9 -522,4 -500,3 -558,3-654,2
1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Exports Imports(Billions of euro)
EU
USA China
B l d l i
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24
-21
25 33 40 5785 56 17
-55 -22
35 30 1
-51-103-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Credit, Goods+services Debit, Goods+services
Balana de pli- EU/China/USA
3,9
-9,8
6,4 9,1 13,837,8 39,1 28,7 3 1, 3 3 1, 4 39,5 31,9 39,6
100,3
166,4
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Credit, Goods+services Debit, Goods+services
I
EU
China
-30,2 -60,0 -82,8 -73,7 -81,9 -95,2-146,8
-247,1
-408,8 -405,1 -445,3 -437,5-491,4
-576,1 -609,5
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Billions of euro Balance, Goods+services Cred it , Goods+services Debit , Goods+services
: I
USA
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EU 25 Bilateral Export and I mpor ts Goods Trade with OtherMain Partners in the World 2005 (mn EUR/shares)
Country/ economy
2005
ImportsShare of total
EU imports
ExportsShare of total
EU imports
Total = Imports
& Exports
US 162.545 13,75 251.699 23,69 414.244
Japan 73.417 6,21 43.631 4,11 117.048
China 158.481 13,40 51.646 4,86 210.127
Korea, Republic of 33.879 2,87 20.156 1,90 54.035
India 18.915 1,60 21.092 1,98 40.007
ASEAN 71.137 6,02 45.012 4,24 116.149
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EU 25 Bilateral I mport and Expor ts Services Trade with Other MainPartners in the World 2005 (bn EUR)
Country/ economy
2005
Imports ExportsTotal = Imports &
Exports
US 114.060 119.830 233.890
Japan 11.790 19.907 31.697
China 8.778 10.952 19.729
Korea, Republic of 3.402 5.698 9.100
India 4.643 5.085 9.728
ASEAN 13.475 14.687 28.162
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Soldul balanei pe principalii
parteneri
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A DynamicTransatlantic Economy
EU and U.S. together account for 40%of total global trade (more than $1.5
billion in transatlantic trade every day).
The $3 trillion EU-U.S. transatlanticeconomy employs 14 million workers on both sides of the Atlantic.
In 2005, Europe accounted for roughlytwo-thirds of total global investmentflows into the U.S. by far the mostsignificant source of foreign investmentin the U.S. economy.
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29
EU- Balana comercial ptr. Prod. Manufact.( bn)
57,0
-2,8
29,7
39,5
-26,2
4,7
6,2
5,5
-2,6
150,2
29,9
69,0
77,6
-43,0
2,8
7,4
7,2
0,0
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
Manufactured products
Machinery
Transport equipment
Chemicals
Tex tiles and clothing
Iron and steel
Paper and a rticles of papers
Non-metal mineralmanufactures
Others products19992006
Source: EUROSTAT
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30
Piaa produselor up-market ntrirea poziiei pe pia (specializri intra-ramur i pe produs)
performan ridicat Domeniu cheie de dezvoltare: din totalul exporturilor europene; 1/3 dinimporturi
EU world market share in up-market products: 32% (USA: 18%; Japan: 15%)
Down-market products
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
E U 2 5 U S
A C h
i n a J a p
a n
O t h . D
e v B R I
O t h . E
m . R o
W
1995 2004
Up-market products
05
1015
2025
30
E U 2 5 U S
A C h
i n a J a p
a n
O t h . D
e v B R I
O t h . E m
. R o
W
1995 2004
World market share for up-market and down-market products (%) 1995-2004 Source: CEPII BACI
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31
Slab poziionare pe pieele dinamice O orientare geografic a exporturilor nefavorabil (slab poziionar
pe pieele emergente) UE export mai mult pe pieele care au crescut ntr -un ritm mai lent
dect media mondial
% of total exports going to the most/least dynamicmarkets
Contribution to the riseof world imports over a
ten year period
US Japan EU25
67.6%
0.7%
On 10 most dynamicmarkets *
78% 76% 46.9%
On 20 least dynamicmarkets **
1.8% 3.3% 5.3%
Source: Chelem Database
Share of most/least dynamic markets in EU, US and Japan exports
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32
Slab poziionare pe pieele Hi-tech
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ISD
Principalul investitor al lumii Investitor net de capital (balan deficitar) SUA
principala surs pentru intrri ISD SUA principala destinaie a ISD UE principalul investitor n economia SUA Destinaii principale ale intrrilor: Frana,
Germania, UK, Olanda, Spania, Italia, Suedia,Polonia
Piee emitente principale: Frana, UK, Germania,Olanda, Spania, Italia
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ISD fluxuri de intrri
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ISD fluxuri de ieiri
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European companies are the leadingforeign investors in the U.S.
The UK, Germany, France, and the Netherlands top four sources of jobs created by foreign investmentin the United States.
American companies invest far morein EU countries than in Asia.
U.S. businesses make 5 times the profit in the Netherlands - alone -as they make in China.
BMWs assembly plant is South Carolinas largest private sector employer.
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-5 000
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
IFDI OFDI Balance
V a
l u e
US Japan China Korea, Republic of India ASEAN
EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Flows with Partners (2005)
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EU25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks w ith Partne rs (2005)
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
IFDI OFDI
V a l u e
US Japan China Korea, Republic of India ASEAN
EU 25 OFDI and IFDI Stocks with Partners (2005)
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O economie afectat de criz
Scderi ale PIB Scderi ale ocupri
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What History Tells Us
Cycles keep repeating, despite changes in law, despitewarfare, despite human-caused and natural disasters
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The Modern Era
Despite ongoing shocks to the globaleconomic system, the Great Depression hasnot been repeated. Have we been smart or justluck ?
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Grim prospects for EU (worse
than US)
Note: following charts from European Commission Spring Forecast
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PIB i comerul exterior
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PIB, consumul i investiiile
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Evoluia FBCF
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PIB, ocupare, omaj
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Severe lagged impact on
(un)employment
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Economic Growth Rates
5.1
2.93.3
11.6
7.1
5
2.2
3.1
11.9
6.3
4.1
1.31.8
9.7
6
3.9
0.8
1.7
9.8
5.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
World US European Union China Malaysia
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Inflation Rates
3.6
3.2
2.3
1.5
3.63.95
2.9
2.4
4.8
2.1
4.7
3.1 3.1
5.9
2.4
3.6
22.2
3.6
2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World US Euro area China Malaysia
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Interest Rates5.3 5.3
2.8
3.6
4.3
5.0
5.3
0.4
0.91.1
1.5
3.73.5 3.6
3.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2006 2007 2008 2009
US dollar
Euro
Yen
Malaysia
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PIB
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FBCF
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Rata de ocupare
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Dinamica productiei industriale
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Rata somajului
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Dinamica in constructii
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O economie caracterizata de decalaje
Disparita i naionale Dispariti regionale
Dimensiune economic, social, spaial Indicatori:- PIB (nivel, structur, dinamic)
- demografie/piaa muncii - Productivitate/competitivitate- Cercetare/dezvoltare tehnologic
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