Prognoze Si Scenarii Alternative de Dezvoltare a Economiei

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PROGNOZE SI SCENARII PROGNOZE SI SCENARII ALTERNATIVE DE DEZVOLTARE A ALTERNATIVE DE DEZVOLTARE A ECONOMIEI ROMANESTI IN PERIOADA ECONOMIEI ROMANESTI IN PERIOADA 2005-2014 2005-2014 Prezentare realizata de catre Prezentare realizata de catre Dr.ec. Catalin GHINARARU Dr.ec. Catalin GHINARARU - I.N.C.S.M.P.S.- - I.N.C.S.M.P.S.-

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Transcript of Prognoze Si Scenarii Alternative de Dezvoltare a Economiei

  • PROGNOZE SI SCENARII ALTERNATIVE DE DEZVOLTARE A ECONOMIEI ROMANESTI IN PERIOADA 2005-2014Prezentare realizata de catreDr.ec. Catalin GHINARARU- I.N.C.S.M.P.S.-

  • Premisele prognozelor de dezvoltareEconomia romaneasca a intrat pe un trend ascendent practic ireversibil, accentuat de faptul ca, nivelul de dezvoltare de la care s-a pornit a fost foarte scazut, masa critica a tranzitiei a fost atinsa foarte tarziu, iar, numarul de ani consecutivi de crestere economica acumulati pana in prezent este extrem de redus;Rata inflatiei va continua si in viitor sa fie paramerul de baza, ancora in jurul careia vor gravita evolutiile macro-economice si de la care pornesc, de o maniera quasi-normativa, toate prognozele. Ea este o functie de predictibilitate a intregului mediu economic si de afaceri. Neatingerea tintelor inflationiste, putand crea indoieli asupra perspectivelor generale de dezvoltare economica (Mugur Isarescu)Veniturile romanilor vor creste pe masura ce ritmul cresterii economice se va accentua. Maximul va fi atins in jurul anilor 2009-2010. Salariul mediu va fi in jur de 500 de EURO in anul 2009 (Calin Popescu Tariceanu)Migratia pentru munca in strainatate se va mentine pentru perioada de prognoza la cote ridicate si va influenta piata domestica a muncii;Valuta romaneasca va intra intr-un proces de apreciere;

  • Scenariile alternative de prognoza propuseScenariul cu punct de plecare la momentu limediat urmator atingerii masei critice a progresului in tranzitie (1999);Scenariul ce foloseste drept baza evolutiile economiei romanesti pe ultimii zece ani (1995-2004);Scenariul ce porneste de la momentul atingerii masei critice a progresului in tranzitie dar nu ia in considerare in prognoza veniturilor salariale decat influenta variatiilor indicelui preturilor de consum (castigurile de productivitate sunt ignorate);Scenariul tip FMI, ce ia in considerare evolutiile economiei romanesti pe intreaga perioada a tranzitiei (1990-2004), pentru realizarea prognozelor;

  • Scenariul avand drept punct de plecare momentul atingerii masei criticePorneste de la premisa ca, toate evolutiile anterioare acestui meoment au de a face exclusiv cu procesul tranzitiei de la plan la piata, fiind in consecinta irepetabile si neputand fi deci luate in considerare pentru prognoza;Rata inflatiei este fixata normativ dar ia in considerare mentinerea unei expectatii de variatie anuala a preturilor de consum ceva mai ridicata decat cea prevazuta de BNR, mentinand astfel un stimul mai puternic pentru cresterea economica;Cresterea salariilor ia in considerare nu doar variatiile preturilor de consum, din ce in ce mai mici de la un an la altul ci si o parte din castigurile de productivitate ce vor apare in urmatorii ani;Crestrea pensiilor ia in considerare impactul recalcularii dar le si indexeaza apoi progresiv folosind un mecanism ce ia in considerare atat rata inflatiei cat si cresterile salariului mediu;Salariul minim ia in considerare inflatia dar este legat oarecum si de cresterile salariului mediue, preluand o parte din variatiile crescatoare ale acesteia, insa, cu o tendinta descendenta a raportului dintre cele doua praguri ale pietei muncii;Acest scenariu foloseste si o masura mai putin traditionala, respectiv Big Mac Index, calculand productivitatea ca numar de ore locrate pentru cumnpararea unui Big Mac si estimand apoi ocuparea pe baza acestei masuri non-standard a productivitatii muncii;Scenariu prin definitie de expansiune. Comporta riscul unei asa-numite credit bubble;

  • Chart1

    79.7791453163

    410.4787330973

    310.8197276868

    2.511.0288844433

    2.311.1743023859

    2.211.2882256617

    2.111.382946765

    2.111.4629796553

    211.4330554912

    211.5855225446

    CPI%

    GDP%

    annual % change (Dec. to Dec.), of GDP and CPI

    Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei, modelul "masei critice"

    Sheet1

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.75668

    GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.96

    LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.62

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.26869

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955111597

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.2

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149

    GDP/w237424392515257427773153311929182898319634953783496760867391

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.2

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.177

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203264

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.867.6

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.133

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.9

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.91

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.27

    BMP72852832812860

    199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    GDP%-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.96

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Libidx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.62

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.26869

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955111597

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.2

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    GDP/w237424392515257427773153311929182898319634953783496760867391

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.2

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.177

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203264

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.867.6

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.133

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.9

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.91

    BMP72852832812860

    1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.27

    1834185918991906191219181940194819561966197719922002

    Pop.Rom.3.053.865.956.57.77182115.817.419.121.522.821.6

    1834185918991906191219181940194819561966197719922002

    Pop.Rom.3.053.865.956.57.77182115.817.419.121.522.821.6

    PopTer.Ro5.36.7899.79.54.44

    Basarb19183.1

    V.Reg19188.5

    1966197719922002

    Pop.Rom19.121.522.821.6

    1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002

    Pop.Rom.23.223.122.822.722.622.422.322.222.12221.921.821.7

    199019921992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

    AvGrowRo-5.6-8.9-10.7-6.25-4.22-2.3-1.44-2-2.4-2.48-2.09-1.45-0.9-0.57-0.13

    Sheet1

    0

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    GDP%

    %

    Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB) in Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in 2017

    Comparisons between alternative

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    GDP

    mld.USD

    PIB nominal al Romaniei (in mld. USD) pentru perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in 2017

    Outputs baseline Cata critical

    0

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    0

    Libidx

    Anii 1997 si 1998, marcati in rosu, reprezinta momentul atingerii "masei critice" a proceselor de reforma

    valori ale Indicelui Liberalizarii (scala de la 0 la 10, valori cumulative)

    Evolutia Indicelui Liberalizarii (masura a progresului in tranzitia de la "plan la piata") in perioada 1989-2004, pentru Romania si tendinta pana in 2007

    Sheet20

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    StbIdx

    valori ale indicelui stabilitatii (scalaa de la 0 la 100)

    Evolutia indicelui Stabilitatii Socio-Politice pentru Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Sheet21

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    GDP p.c.

    PIB pe locuitor la paritatea puterii de cumparare (PPC) pentru Romania in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Baseline taking only CPI%

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    Wshare

    % salariilor in totalul veniturilor disponibile

    Evolutia ponderii salariilor in totalul veniturilor disponibile ale populatiei pentru perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Outputs baseline with CPI%

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    GDP/w

    PIB/pers.ocupata (USD)

    Evolutia productivitatii muncii in Romania exprimata ca PIB/pers.ocupata (in USD), in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinte pana in anul 2017

    Outputs IMF-like scenario

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    Empl

    mil. pers. ocupate

    Evolutia ocuparii in Romania (mil. pers.ocupate) in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinte pana in anul 2017

    Outputs 10 year scenario

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    Uerate

    rata somajului (% someri in total populatie activa)

    Evolutia ratei somajului in perioada 1989-2004 in Romania si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    10yearsScenario

    0

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    CPI%

    variatia % anuala a indicelui preturilor de consum

    Evolutia ratei inflatiei in Romania in perioada 1989-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    IMF-like scenario

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    Avwage

    salariul mediu brut (USD)

    Evolutia salariului mediu brut in Romania (exprimat in USD) si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    BASELINE CATA-Critical mass

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    Avpens

    pensia medie (USD)

    Evolutia pensiei medii (exprimata in USD) pentru perioada 1990-2004, in Romania si tendinte pana in anul 2017

    Sheet4

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    Agrempl

    % pers. ocupate in agricultura in total populatie ocupata a Romaniei

    Evolutia ocuparii in agricultura, exprimata ca % din ocuparea totala, in Romania, in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2012

    Sheet5

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    OT

    Importurile si exporturile raportate % la PIB in val. nominala, in mld.USD

    Evolutia "deschiderii comerciale a Romaniei" (gradul de integrare a tarii in fluxurile comerciale internationale) pentru perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Sheet6

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    Prate

    BMP

    Rata saraciei ca% al celor aflati sub pragul de 50% din venitul median in totalul populatiei

    "Premiul" pietei negre (rata profitului ilicit al acesteia datorita lipsurilor de pe piata) exprimat in procente

    Evolutia ratei/incidentei saraciei (1989-2004) si "premiului" pietei negre (1989-1993), pentru Romania si tendinta ratei/incidentei saraciei pana in anul 2017

    Sheet7

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    GiniIdx

    Indicele Gini (al inegalitatii veniturilor;scala de la 0 la 1)

    Evolutia inegalitatii veniturilor in Romania in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Sheet8

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    Pop.Rom.

    serie reconstituita de catre Dr. C. Ghinararu, dupa monografii statistice de sec. XX

    populatia Romaniei (mil.loc.)

    Seria "istorica" (evolutii seculare) a populatiei Romaniei (1834-2002;ani selectati si dupa 1912 recensaminte) si tendinta pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017

    Sheet9

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    0

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    Pop.Rom

    populatia Romaniei (mil.loc.)

    Populatia Romaniei (serie semicentenara-recensaminte) si tendinta pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017

    Sheet10

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    Pop.Rom.

    pop.Romaniei (mil.loc.)

    Evolutia populatiei Romaniei (serie decenala 1990-2002) si tendinte pe baza acesteia pana in anul 2017

    Sheet11

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    Pop.Rom.

    PopTer.Ro

    Basarb1918

    V.Reg1918

    serie statistica reconstruita de catre Dr.C. Ghinararu dupa monografii statistice de arhiva

    populatia Romaniei si a teritoriilor locuite de catre Romani (mil.loc.)

    Seria istorica (1834-2002) a evolutiei populatiei Romaniei si teritoriilor locuite de catre Romani, aflate astazi in granitele Romaniei si Rep.Moldova

    Sheet12

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    AvGrowRo

    variatii procentuale medii ale PIB obtinute prin adaugarea succesiva a valorilor anuale

    Media cresterii economice pentru Romania in perioada 1990-2004 si tendinta pana in anul 2017

    Sheet13

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    Base case scenario7543.83.63.33.132.82.7

    Best case scenario7432.52.32.22.12.122

    Worst case scenario7.56.65.75.76432.82.82.5

    The extremely worst cas8.27.887.765.5543.84

    The best ever case6.93.82.521.81.81.922.12

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario9.710.410.81111.111.211.311.411.411.5

    10 years scenario6.376.496.566.616.666.76.736.766.786.8

    IMF like scenario3.74.283.974.95.55.35.26.36.15.6

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.9.779.59.71111.811.811.111.111.211.3

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario35538443549556963872079811421389

    10 years scenario355453556662775779898114812791415

    IMF like scenario3553043243503834084294346361081

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.250268286304310316335385424469

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario119132152176206236270302290423

    10 years scenario157164163229240240251276289302

    IMF like scenario119121129140153163171173254432

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.110133161195232274280281313452

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario139143151160171181193205257294

    10 years scenario139153169185202202220258277298

    IMF like scenario139131134138143147150151181248

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.137119131146154161155159161164

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario10.410.310.29.89.89.19.338.899.2

    10 years scenario10.410.410.410.510.49.149.378.959.1210.2

    IMF like scenario10.410.410.511.111.211.211.211.310.911.2

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.10.410.310.29.889.929.179.478.969.19.46

    2005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    "Critical mass" scenario10.3109.879.788.178.386.66.67.57.7

    10 years scenario10.310.410.410.59.919.837.027.597.888.1

    IMF like scenario10.310.510.710.912.31212.912.911.811.4

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.10.3109.949.878.28.56.96.97.67.8

    Sheet13

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    Base case scenario

    Best case scenario

    Worst case scenario

    The extremely worst cas

    The best ever case

    Rata inflatiei (variatia % anuala a IPC/CPI)

    Evolutiile proiectate normativ ale variabilei ancora (rata inflatiei) pentru cele 5 variante ale scenariilor de prognoza

    Sheet14

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    variatii % anuale ale PIB

    Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB) in cele patru scenarii de prognoza

    Sheet15

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    USD

    Evolutia estimata a salariului mediu (in USD) pentru in cele patru scenarii alterantive de prognoza

    Sheet16

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    USD

    Evolutia salariului minim pe economie (in USD) pentru cele patru scenarii alternative de prognoza

    Outputs population projections

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    mil.pers. ocupate

    Evolutia ocuparii (pop.ocupate-mil.pers.) pentru cele patru scenarii alternative de prognoza

    Sheet17

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    % din pop.activa (met.ILO)

    Evolutia ratei somajului (%) pentru cele scenarii alternative de prognoza

    Sheet3

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    "Critical mass" scenario

    10 years scenario

    IMF like scenario

    Slow "crtical mass"scen.

    USD

    Evolutia pensiei medii in USD, in cele patru scenarii de prognoza

    6.9355.6533870339

    3.8384.4437775129

    2.5435.1402526056

    2492.1628681364

    1.8561.1995375507

    1.8620.7745194018

    1.9684.9643531067

    2739.9829193914

    2.1942.8058656467

    21024.3636666058

    CPI%

    Avwage

    Av.wage in USD

    CPI in % (YoY, Dec.)

    CPI% and Avwage in USD

    77664.4387033859

    47986.5168638196

    38342.810691167

    2.58462.7797890371

    2.38811.6711581018

    2.28901.9728047445

    2.19111.9392173625

    2.19194.8805745716

    29303.34019955

    29380.1981476802

    CPI%

    GDP/w

    CPI% and Labor productivity (GDP/worker in USD)

    79.7791453163

    410.4787330973

    310.8197276868

    2.511.0288844433

    2.311.1743023859

    2.211.2882256617

    2.111.382946765

    2.111.4629796553

    211.4330554912

    211.5855225446

    CPI%

    GDP%

    annual % change (Dec. to Dec.), of GDP and CPI

    Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei, modelul "masei critice"

    355.9143870339119.3233.5249162009

    384.6495103115132.62340304934.4790255788

    435.8910404408152.703180329935.0324200689

    495.0349917218176.887128694135.7322475486

    569.7958442713206.605822139136.2596224975

    638.9800343417236.867414747637.0696112581

    720.4435143514270.717093470137.5764495172

    798.0754730573302.228894006237.8697133554

    1142.317063374290.016966097425.3884823572

    1389.2438442271423.000485010330.4482533263

    Avwage

    Avpens

    Avp/Avs%

    Average pension & average salary in USD

    Average pension to average salary ratio (%)

    Salariul mediu si pensia medie, exprimate in USD si raportul dintre salariul mediu si pensia media (%), in modelul masei critice

    355.9143870339139.357158055139.1546852648

    384.6495103115143.637426546737.3424176286

    435.8910404408151.313656066134.7136421784

    495.0349917218160.180248758332.3573588609

    569.7958442713171.392376640730.0796115598

    638.9800343417181.769005151328.4467425244

    720.4435143514193.987527152726.9261258223

    798.0754730573205.632320958625.76602438

    1142.317063374257.267559506122.5215544576

    1389.2438442271294.306576634121.1846593999

    Avwage

    Minwage

    Min/Aw%

    Average & min. wage in USD

    %ratio of min. to av. wage

    Salariul mediu si salariul minim exprimate in USD si raportul dintre acestea (%), in modelul "masei critice"

    355.9143870339139.35715805517664.4387033859

    384.6495103115143.63742654677986.5168638196

    435.8910404408151.31365606618342.810691167

    495.0349917218160.18024875838462.7797890371

    569.7958442713171.39237664078811.6711581018

    638.9800343417181.76900515138901.9728047445

    720.4435143514193.98752715279111.9392173625

    798.0754730573205.63232095869194.8805745716

    1142.317063374257.26755950619303.34019955

    1389.2438442271294.30657663419380.1981476802

    Avwage

    Minwage

    GDP/w

    Average and min. wage in USD

    Labour productivity as GDP/worker in USD

    Average wage, min.wage and lab.productivity (GDP/W)

    22512.0735343.949916861.54043

    2399836956.9217470.544

    25618.739196.61118471.0827

    27460.18541876.78212519702.6827375

    29447.27344848.19677921087.1921953

    31623.50248130.97004422623.4533308

    33929.72151607.10564124249.5715987

    36360.47155304.27639125986.8286237

    38945.7859197.585627807.28692

    41836.2963591.160829871.11106

    Exrat$

    ExratEUR

    BM-PPP

    Exchange rate, ROL per USD and EURO

    Big Mac implicit PPP of the USD as against the ROL (in ROL)

    Cursul de schim prognozate LEU/USD si LEU/EURO precum si paritatea implicita a puterii de cumparare a USD la standardul Big Mac, in modelul "masei critice"

    25.11.1911459594

    27.21.1419711921

    27.91.0654388521

    28.251.0006995358

    28.390.930494408

    28.460.8901966085

    28.530.8462886055

    28.530.8186979357

    28.60.6120492339

    28.60.5406140341

    Apr/Depr%

    wh/bm-avs

    appreciation/depreciation rate of the ROL as against the USD in %

    hours worked for a Big Mac

    Gradul de apreciere/depreciere al valutei nationale fata de USD (la standardul Big Mac) si productivitatea muncii exprimata ca nr.de ore de munca necsare in vederea cumparari unui Big Mac

    9952850.383973438.9913073585

    10264619.9489168.9652447318

    10174871.67757438.9246825916

    10239083.33528698.890370754

    10421207.90799178.8531620362

    10484685.65120248.8318042025

    10538363.99362238.8085329609

    10692157.35240598.7939099059

    10743869.0357628.684386094

    10936326.98852958.6465254381

    EmpbyPro

    EbyPBM

    Employment in persons using the traditional measure (GDP/w)

    Employment by productivity in mil.pers. using the measure "hours worked for the purchase of a Big Mac"

    Ocuparea (in mil.pers.) masurata prin intermedul productivitatii muncii, exprimata ca PIB/lucrator (scala din dreapta) sau ca ore de munca pentru cumpararea unui Big MAC (scala din stanga)

    10.423937538810.368010824230.8676372533

    10.320986577610.042468624730.1016416237

    10.26751792119.873394884729.1552416074

    9.84209953179.781124639828.862958136

    9.88567212498.172857460128.1727732522

    9.10620824938.381143286428.1216718841

    9.33482018386.617188267727.4812845763

    8.80111018796.620686561226.8379893944

    9.00297967857.560486662826.5395061418

    9.29676218187.715270258926.1852213467

    Empl

    Uerate

    Agrempl

    Employment in mil.pers and the unemployment rate (%)

    Share of agriculture in total employment (as % of total)

    Ocuparea (in mil.pers.) estimata folosind drept variabila explicativa cresterea economica, rata somajului si ponderea agriculturii in ocuparea totala

    Regression of Employment on labour productivity as expressed by hours of work for a Big Mac (2005-14)ac (2005-14)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.7689497907

    R Square0.5912837806

    Adjusted R Square-1.25

    Standard Error0.3335588128

    Observations1

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression101.28768287360.128768287411.5734830684

    Residual80.89009185290.1112614816

    Total182.1777747266

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept0.89009185290.8900918529

    X Variable 11.28768287361.2876828736

    X Variable 20.53125059630.53125059591.00000000070.3465935068-0.69381626691.7563174595-0.69381626691.7563174595

    X Variable 3-00

    X Variable 400

    X Variable 5-10.921148287927.6456524809

    X Variable 6-00

    X Variable 721779105490573314000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000002177910549057331400000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    X Variable 8254326008511628600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000-254326008511628600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    X Variable 98.36225209660.421580406119.83548565010.00000004357.3900853089.33441888517.3900853089.3344188851

    X Variable 101.84140511630.5412741733.40198222630.00933307620.59322382783.08958640470.59322382783.0895864047

    Regression of Employment on Labour productivity expressed as hours of work for a Big Mac (2005-2014)Mac (1997-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.8558690704

    R Square0.7325118656

    Adjusted R Square-1.3333333333

    Standard Error0.4555504483

    Observations1

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression83.40984273440.426230341816.430901518

    Residual61.24515726560.2075262109

    Total144.655

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept0.34375029820.6054469410.000000856.24200123297.92425581916.24199877637.9242533624

    X Variable 100

    X Variable 200

    X Variable 3-13.27830267521.3853049414

    X Variable 410317041599884116000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001031704159988411600000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    X Variable 5-00

    X Variable 60-0

    X Variable 77.0831285260.77958396979.08578010970.00009978695.17555387658.99070317555.17555387658.9907031755

    X Variable 81.39507023850.344163954.05350484370.00669951360.55293077452.23720970240.55293077452.2372097024

    19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322784.887028212986.651107508191.828257155493.334386533396.024932160398.313109939999.9538686991102.5849141602

    GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.989.77914531639.50314612559.704877828611.096064910111.862840558811.814554903711.101548794611.188543404711.265849078111.3325511931

    LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.451245117970.010096982470.110077071370.138017673771.154601237270.582965041770.877649418571.0213606465

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111637.738402740411874.6375376112454.588563919512536.047109946212704.023998012612933.88180586213114.113272744913282.8866005998

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079772.783108884573.330472092175.082596610375.504411297875.012941853675.296069763176.444020302377.0067801589

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37432.52.32.22.12.122

    GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968342.8106911678462.77978903718811.67115810188901.97280474459111.93921736259194.88057457169303.340199559380.1981476802

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.320986577610.28881486769.88127546669.92637731989.17850924919.47032232958.9604181139.10629268089.464677334

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.04246862479.94073815879.87688046928.21405767798.53679652546.97079784886.93584595427.67287411057.8159105507

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253250.3666466708268.0485802676286.2253676553304.4018525284310.6983496005316.0978953285335.1241579245385.9637244304424.345776685469.6658811796

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876110.347929717133.3821497069161.1043482312195.8214131275232.4425902228274.934560124280.0120811735281.4040083444313.8113745868452.7406759249

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.155241607428.86295813628.172773252228.121671884127.481284576326.837989394426.539506141826.1852213467

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.280895848381.26643487281.980490977183.345414254585.080871661484.620646377887.620401626589.7073022733

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639964.20471967923.61720882743.20873711133.83183643623.6131040573.42738691823.26046073133.1156661332

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24974282010.24765917390.24621050180.24114979750.23997573920.23637069090.23527325090.2343263402

    Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9137119.7767076889131.9902929035146.6697674716154.2132014641161.444862293155.9923572304159.0152089384161.8283522156164.4626511027

    Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.072399825618.727460.18529447.27331623.50233929.72136360.47138945.7841836.29

    ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949936956.9239196.61141876.78212544848.19677948130.97004451607.10564155304.27639159197.585663591.1608

    BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661

    BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317470.54418471.082719702.682737521087.192195322623.453330824249.571598725986.828623727807.2869229871.11106

    Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.127.227.928.2528.3928.4628.5328.5328.628.6

    BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228859893.9165843267600.65317628777291.26005728488708.5457675783102204.617705355117540.098496059134984.683261516154710.846091066178527.981072307

    PoPToT

    Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691754.719748745244.68470139646.114114197748.182941809849.634380633951.074323707646.547631241141.199521839338.135963901835.0169466621

    wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.69330056391.63872779851.62255097641.62739248231.7064520861.79949904081.81933508141.69286049691.64760514171.5991042763

    Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691744.07453276449.760438788356.285838516364.329901904774.812946551486.977662359483.554728763172.909444730873.951808131296.3963306825

    US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8

    EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610174871.677574310239083.335286910421207.907991710484685.651202410538363.993622310692157.352405910743869.03576210936326.9885295

    EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260879.25744929899.22852573329.21995201759.22251801569.26441960569.31373449169.32424759319.25721606349.23323072519.2075252665

    9.77914531637

    9.50314612554

    9.70487782863

    11.09606491012.5

    11.86284055882.3

    11.81455490372.2

    11.10154879462.1

    11.18854340472.1

    11.26584907812

    11.33255119312

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Rata inflatiei (%)

    Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)

    Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei in scenariul "de la masa critica", varianta "incetinita"

    7250.3666466708110.347929717137

    4268.0485802676133.3821497069119.7767076889

    3286.2253676553161.1043482312131.9902929035

    2.5304.4018525284195.8214131275146.6697674716

    2.3310.6983496005232.4425902228154.2132014641

    2.2316.0978953285274.934560124161.444862293

    2.1335.1241579245280.0120811735155.9923572304

    2.1385.9637244304281.4040083444159.0152089384

    2424.345776685313.8113745868161.8283522156

    2469.6658811796452.7406759249164.4626511027

    CPI%

    Avwage

    Avpens

    Minwage

    Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim (in USD)

    Rata inflatiei (%)

    Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim in USD;scenariul de la "masa critica", varianta "incetinita"

    9.7791453163710.423937538810.3680108242

    9.5031461255410.320986577610.0424686247

    9.7048778286310.28881486769.9407381587

    11.09606491012.59.88127546669.8768804692

    11.86284055882.39.92637731988.2140576779

    11.81455490372.29.17850924918.5367965254

    11.10154879462.19.47032232956.9707978488

    11.18854340472.18.9604181136.9358459542

    11.265849078129.10629268087.6728741105

    11.332551193129.4646773347.8159105507

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Empl

    Uerate

    Ocuparea in mil.pers., rata somajului in % si cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)

    Rata inflatiei (%)

    Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea si rata somajului

    3.77053551327

    4.28918931375

    3.97001953994

    4.93721121813.8

    5.59310669583.6

    5.328279043.3

    5.24514725173.1

    6.39071539043

    6.11463681332.8

    5.66463824882.7

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Cresterea economica si rata inflatiei in asa-numitul "IMF-like scenario" de dezvoltare a economiei romanesti

    7355.9143870339119.32139.3571580551

    5304.6872596975121.874903879131.6530889546

    4324.1796369253129.6718547701134.5669455388

    3.8350.1919743823140.0767897529138.4667961573

    3.6383.767963103153.5071852412143.5011944654

    3.3408.1152423088163.2460969235147.1502863463

    3.1429.4933876043171.7973550417150.3550081406

    3434.9071694706173.9628677882151.1660754206

    2.8636.0070209863254.4028083945181.329053148

    2.71081.6753322039432.6701328816248.1782998306

    CPI%

    Avwage

    Avpens

    Minwage

    Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim in USD

    Rata inflatiei (%)

    Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie, salariul minim (in USD) in asa-numitul "IMF-like scenario" de dezvoltare a economiei romanesti

    3.7705355132710.423937538810.3680108242

    4.2891893137510.4937221810.5886774923

    3.9700195399410.549688487410.7656490778

    4.93721121813.811.167360680910.9291725251

    5.59310669583.611.224322981212.3485792458

    5.328279043.311.26092951712.0538978041

    5.24514725173.111.266810110212.9591151571

    6.3907153904311.31880177612.9949364193

    6.11463681332.810.9175159211.8146691174

    5.66463824882.711.286406744311.4417230981

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Empl

    Uerate

    Rata inflatiei (%), ocuparea (mil.pers.) si rata somajului (%)

    Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)

    Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea si rata somajului in "IMF-like scenario"

    6.37452150336.9

    6.48976090913.8

    6.54699850652.5

    6.58048371532

    6.60436403291.8

    6.62368360271.8

    6.64119137551.9

    6.65807165182

    6.674428532.1

    6.69034260072

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Rata inflatiei(variatii % anuale la Decembrie)

    Cresterea economica (variatii % anuale)

    Rata inflatiei si cresterea economica in scenariul de evolutie "pe zece ani" al economiei romanesti

    6.9355.6533870339157.244139.3170080551

    3.8449.3515966954162.966153.3407395043

    2.5548.625428437160.925168.2188142656

    2651.3963146138225.2796314614183.6294471921

    1.8761.3018264394235.9561826439200.1132739659

    1.8766.0605079396236.432050794200.8270761909

    1.9883.5074958543248.3337495854218.4451243781

    21131.8103265878273.3210326588255.6915489882

    2.11263.2121495618286.6182149562275.4028224343

    21397.3746667517299.8774666752295.5262000128

    CPI%

    Avwage

    Avpens

    Minwage

    Salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim exprimate in USD

    Rata inflatiei (%)

    Rata inflatiei, salariul mediu, pensia medie si salariul minim (in USD), in scenariul de evolutie "pe 10 ani" al economiei romanesti

    6.37452150336.910.423937538810.3680108242

    6.48976090913.810.447031143310.4410353276

    6.54699850652.510.459412378210.4801861464

    6.5804837153210.513903194210.5035578997

    6.60436403291.810.45558011999.935772753

    6.62368360271.89.17517816979.8607295766

    6.64119137551.99.35203964797.0954623945

    6.658071651828.91686222097.554176828

    6.674428532.19.04638133667.7798509743

    6.6903426007210.0743180557.9827045777

    GDP%

    CPI%

    Empl

    Uerate

    Rata inflatiei (%), ocuparea (mil.pers.) si rata somajului(%)

    Cresterea economica (variatia % anuala a PIB)

    Cresterea economica, rata inflatiei, ocuparea (in mil.pers.) si rata somajului in scenariul de evolutie "pe 10 ani" al economiei romanesti

    19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.905743717684.663237877286.130569300190.590159336291.704936246693.613298640894.981634443396.168333632297.5401917421

    GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.986.37452150336.48976090916.54699850656.58048371536.60436403296.62368360276.64119137556.65807165186.674428536.6903426007

    LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.333176676469.442802006169.954809585970.011016668769.995930933770.58373120270.248035441870.407146784670.4861874215

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611450.829667016711623.86836458811836.490358429312341.364086219512335.556209460712446.621042952812573.290911720112683.573279601912785.9609288854

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.92241674472.709174621173.165633286574.733639830975.05412512674.490568862874.723632280375.651852085376.0105063954

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.36.93.82.521.81.81.922.12

    GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597982.35966953988327.54284370428427.63146138418738.58264394058807.25079396498970.64958543059039.03265878079110.41495618549177.4666751701

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.447031143310.459412378210.513903194210.45558011999.17517816979.35203964798.91686222099.046381336610.074318055

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.441035327610.480186146410.50355789979.9357727539.86072957667.09546239457.5541768287.77985097437.9827045777

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.6533870339449.3515966954548.625428437651.3963146138761.3018264394766.0605079396883.50749585431131.81032658781263.21214956181397.3746667517

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876157.244162.966160.925225.2796314614235.9561826439236.432050794248.3337495854273.3210326588286.6182149562299.8774666752

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.111528641929.19271354728.948878138428.342779017528.364206757127.87046255627.419071558727.294040938127.0678617327

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.575605724581.228558000781.147532145381.758336813982.838517752484.106281257883.51059016584.758289585785.2960677607

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.18996202864.27983229383.78930585193.46455483174.10590746383.92946481723.76487929953.60955336093.4616497476

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25322980830.25000158090.24826168520.24710979430.24256583740.24162941970.23850340690.23751696280.2365875819

    Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3170080551153.3407395043168.2188142656183.6294471921200.1132739659200.8270761909218.4451243781255.6915489882275.4028224343295.5262000128

    Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.06923997.99825618.69527460.1829447.26831623.49833929.71936360.4738945.78141836.29

    ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635321.43626136908.92092439068.50987541739.473644700.95282448004.46996451539.24316155267.914459236.53290163591.1608

    BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661

    BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816845.781232717436.945346818381.413662519606.5685220984.123176822534.904674824202.068562725961.3755827834.549680729871.11106

    Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.1727.3428.2528.628.7428.7428.6728.628.5328.6

    BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454176.032444363259778.730993527567272.481536154176914.215515737688274.9601740034101804.586755063117309.846530263134852.471243973154862.527367517178527.981072307

    PoPToT

    Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.172130263434.124890315730.661869746928.190126820226.285668445326.215563145424.724761861522.591377988121.801787018121.1486730828

    wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.1909060570.97565900480.84239771410.75678167230.69302406810.73961725030.68874210410.57672454740.55401598940.5374683948

    Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691744.212709827236.266923540229.332399057534.584112069330.993775983430.863365014128.107712809524.14901386222.689634124821.4600617723

    US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8

    EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310260843.548574210166652.933068210220020.855766610366687.943274210412436.115646510435509.463306210507942.390390210555867.553198610628226.1973201

    EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99118021028.87709927268.80647078858.76109428638.72730275618.75199714278.72503331528.66566401018.65362847448.6448582492

    19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322785.539497593887.938189892295.169903770897.8677831441103.5256122557111.1278338922115.9541329147128.7857877673

    GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.983.77053551324.28918931373.97001953994.93721121815.59310669585.328279045.24514725176.39071539046.11463681335.6646382488

    LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.477410518570.160992596170.411455473370.667388181173.132715664772.088309477173.535435582474.4275638731

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111679.513925553611969.253299802812765.286554444213254.016032883213725.122327934414792.614639144515658.332610220616578.9923155498

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079773.020869121973.758540084176.017674116676.726537015876.518926184177.037896785679.200353350781.206931438

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37543.83.63.33.132.82.7

    GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968390.20053769468551.57334469899003.67383880189154.90741578089517.65653397669669.01402055719967.767069936610132.6754140162

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.4937221810.549688487411.167360680911.224322981211.26092951711.266810110211.31880177610.9175159211.2864067443

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.588677492310.765649077810.929172525112.348579245812.053897804112.959115157112.994936419311.814669117411.4417230981

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.9143870339304.6872596975324.1796369253350.1919743823383.767963103408.1152423088429.4933876043434.9071694706636.00702098631081.6753322039

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876119.32121.874903879129.6718547701140.0767897529153.5071852412163.2460969235171.7973550417173.9628677882254.4028083945432.6701328816

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.038400958728.645154635427.72596287727.447876106926.269260059624.577211826622.80736934921.2238339003

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.438533550781.558711800782.548513154684.852061721388.721253857590.1398182474100.9840965717112.6408394641

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639963.98496674853.19841691532.57012598933.14226553112.80325219962.51751313282.26723884292.0532319313

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24896345170.24617390050.24394562510.2374914290.23562105670.23030121330.22851909580.2269911885

    Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3571580551131.6530889546134.5669455388138.4667961573143.5011944654147.1502863463150.3550081406151.1660754206181.329053148248.1782998306

    Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.0723998.0125618.7127460.19829447.28631623.51333929.73136360.4838945.78841836.297

    ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949937196.915539452.813442233.78452445231.03129648478.84542951946.41816155631.534459509.16406463884.025519

    BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661

    BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317638.5373518650.4208819952.579866821355.171807222866.962250324487.086862726215.9060828025.389044830076.1139133

    Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.126.527.227.3427.4827.6927.8327.928.0428.11

    BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228860469.84482625868256.996840832878271.576507872489835.8689999386103304.703340445118691.358732193136174.591746648155924.296520773179753.203175368

    PoPToT

    Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.154685264843.209253017541.509993291139.540253999737.392697739836.056062379335.007525722234.758239466328.510542677122.9438808894

    wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.19114595941.45553280191.44649472781.4325404571.39909901091.40876915531.43349067081.51559294461.10790891180.6990997437

    Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691733.5249162009404040404040404040

    US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8

    EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610195167.232237110283276.111608110570118.984174110690199.113907310877216.664221911493191.927943911632909.567520712709949.002134

    EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99130735859.1314323859.12664220579.11924644229.10152247589.10664765239.11975005559.16326426068.94719172338.7305228642

    19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

    GDP30.829.226.124.425.93035.53432.131.334.237.440.145.7566876.283011691981.978560322784.887028212986.651107508191.828257155493.334386533396.024932160398.313109939999.9538686991102.5849141602

    GDP%-18-5.6-12.2-8.71.53.97.13.9-6.1-5.4-3.21.85.54.64.989.779145316310.478733097310.819727686811.028884443311.174302385911.288225661711.38294676511.462979655311.433055491211.5855225446

    LibIdx00.220.581.031.612.2933.724.475.276.157.057.978.479.179.6210.2875819038

    StbIdx60.836.651.66764.45764.459.661.365.36766.467.2686969.226829429269.335856894169.451245117970.010096982470.110077071370.138017673771.154601237270.582965041770.877649418571.0213606465

    GDP p.c.34703032277727502800409043604300429039705647638068407795955110481.957915740811082.080268715611455.651503424111637.738402740411874.6375376112454.588563919512536.047109946212704.023998012612933.88180586213114.113272744913282.8866005998

    Wshare92.679.286.384.283.981.382.846.7545751.14862.86368.268.7591315669.937628079772.783108884573.330472092175.082596610375.504411297875.012941853675.296069763176.444020302377.0067801589

    CPI%16.870157210.4256.1136.732.338.8154.859.145.8403020149.37432.52.32.22.12.122

    GDP/w2374243925152574277731533119291828983196349537834967608673917664.43870338597986.51686381968342.8106911678462.77978903718811.67115810188901.97280474459111.93921736259194.88057457169303.340199559380.1981476802

    Empl12.310.79.710.0610.811.110.91110.810.710.710.69.29.29.210.423937538810.320986577610.26751792119.84209953179.88567212499.10620824939.33482018388.80111018799.00297967859.2967621818

    Uerate151.338.210.410.99.56.68.810.311.510.58.88.17710.368010824210.04246862479.87339488479.78112463988.17285746018.38114328646.61718826776.62068656127.56048666287.7152702589

    Avwage50138.697.682.6103.1109.8138.3138.4121.8153127.7131145161203253355.9143870339384.6495103115435.8910404408495.0349917218569.7958442713638.9800343417720.4435143514798.07547305731142.3170633741389.2438442271

    Avpens61.9443646.646.755.353.248.755.344.544.9465158.876119.32132.623403049152.7031803299176.8871286941206.6058221391236.8674147476270.7170934701302.2288940062290.0169660974423.0004850103

    Agrempl2931333636.534.435.537.638.141.241.440.935.234.13330.867637253330.101641623729.155241607428.86295813628.172773252228.121671884127.481284576326.837989394426.539506141826.1852213467

    OT29.132.140.94242.350.257.361.364.255.262.266.869.174.272.979.184149579980.593800666481.280895848381.26643487281.980490977183.345414254585.080871661484.620646377887.620401626589.7073022733

    Prate62.1624.1729.418.825.524.12622.450.639.732.734.433.818.9169.918.32510198315.16255639964.20471967923.61720882743.20873711133.83183643623.6131040573.42738691823.26046073133.1156661332

    GiniIdx0.340.460.580.390.330.290.260.360.360.350.360.350.30.30.270.26010923420.25313985160.24974282010.24765917390.24621050180.24114979750.23997573920.23637069090.23527325090.2343263402

    Minwage2562.571.83739.337.734.427.829.0639.429.339.1848.152.975.385.9139.3571580551143.6374265467151.3136560661160.1802487583171.3923766407181.7690051513193.9875271527205.6323209586257.2675595061294.3065766341

    Exrat$163276.74307.97601655.092033.283082.67167.948875.5515332.9321692.7429060.8633055.4633200.073259422512.072399825618.727460.18529447.27331623.50233929.72136360.47138945.7841836.29

    ExratEUR87.79400927.41967.142629.513862.98090.929989.2516295.5719955.7526026.8931255.2537555.874047635343.949936956.9239196.61141876.78212544848.19677948130.97004451607.10564155304.27639159197.585663591.1608

    BMPriUS2.422.562.432.512.542.492.7133.2163.428283.659813.922884.206754.517644.84715.194355.563685.97661

    BM-PPP11688.90311689037.44003214307.463641619436.6950424178.6355225386.5932824222.77107222800.1548816861.5404317470.54418471.082719702.682737521087.192195322623.453330824249.571598725986.828623727807.2869229871.11106

    Apr/Depr%-63.072-1.8246.68810.416.823.227.0430.04825.127.227.928.2528.3928.4628.5328.5328.628.6

    BMPriRO28287.14554265623135.8464819234767.13664908848786.104550461413.734220863212.617267265643.7096051268400.4646454226.7140228859893.9165843267600.65317628777291.26005728488708.5457675783102204.617705355117540.098496059134984.683261516154710.846091066178527.981072307

    PoPToT

    Min/Aw%5045.093795093873.565573770544.79418886238.118331716834.33515482724.873463485220.086705202323.858784893325.751633986922.944400939729.908396946633.172413793132.857142857137.093596059133.9525691739.154685264837.342417628634.713642178432.357358860930.079611559828.446742524426.926125822325.7660243822.521554457621.1846593999

    wh/bm-avs2.78883415442.2201307192.65998433832.59297709922.34262068972.10981366461.67330049261.34260869571.19114595941.14197119211.06543885211.00069953580.9304944080.89019660850.84628860550.81869793570.61204923390.5406140341

    Avp/Avs%44.660894660945.081967213143.58353510945.198836081542.531876138439.98553868438.439306358439.983579638836.143790849734.847298355534.274809160331.72413793131.677018633528.965517241430.039525691733.524916200934.479025578835.032420068935.732247548636.259622497537.069611258137.576449517237.869713355425.388482357230.4482533263

    US-CPI%2.72.32.22.122.32.52.62.72.8

    EmpbyPro12299915.754001710701107.01107019701789.2644135210062160.062160110803024.846957111259118.300031710900929.785187611000685.400959610800552.104899910700876.095118910701001.430615210600052.86809419200724.783571579201445.941505099200378.839128679952850.3839734310264619.94891610174871.677574310239083.335286910421207.907991710484685.651202410538363.993622310692157.352405910743869.03576210936326.9885295

    EbyPBM10.956479474510.165981699310.777378230210.684238167910.336242758610.01264099389.40588768478.9462260878.99130735858.96524473188.92468259168.8903707548.85316203628.83180420258.80853296098.79390990598.6843860948.6465254381

    SUMMARY OUTPUTRegression of population evolution on the GDP% annula variation for Romania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.6221684815

    R Square0.3870936194

    Adjusted R Square0.3399469747

    Standard Error0.4329608056

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression11.53908423071.53908423078.21041713880.0132600328

    Residual132.43691576930.1874550592

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept22.25281473280.1118181205199.0090214531022.011246416722.494383048922.011246416722.4943830489

    X Variable 1-0.05388950390.0188070888-2.86538254670.0132600328-0.0945197411-0.0132592666-0.0945197411-0.0132592666

    Regression of population evolution on the GDP% annual variation for Romania (1990-2004)n on the CPI% annual variation for Romania(1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.7017161927

    R Square0.4924056152

    Adjusted R Square0.4533598932

    Standard Error0.3940124241

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression11.95780472581.957804725812.6110004130.0035482687

    Residual132.01819527420.1552457903

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept21.82090853550.1601189042136.2794021152021.474992740222.166824330821.474992740222.1668243308

    X Variable 10.00565839520.00159337693.55119703940.00354826870.00221611440.00910067590.00221611440.0091006759

    Regression of population evolution on the GDP% annual variation for Romania (1990-2004)n on the Avwage evolution for Romania (1990-2004)0mania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.7180464608

    R Square0.5155907198

    Adjusted R Square0.4783284675

    Standard Error0.3849087102

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression12.04998870212.049988702113.83681038450.0025712319

    Residual131.92601129790.1481547152

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept23.46852110020.339750561169.0757390474022.734534778524.202507421922.734534778524.2025074219

    X Variable 1-0.00857147690.0023042928-3.71978633590.0025712319-0.0135495979-0.0035933559-0.0135495979-0.0035933559

    Rgression of the population evolution on the evolution of the GDP p.c. for Romania for the period (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.8721639524

    R Square0.7606699598

    Adjusted R Square0.7422599567

    Standard Error0.2705516074

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression13.02442376033.024423760341.31829615060.0000224274

    Residual130.95157623970.0731981723

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept23.19914847070.1619455159143.2527992296022.849286521723.549010419822.849286521723.5490104198

    X Variable 1-0.00017569720.0000273334-6.42793093850.0000224274-0.0002347474-0.000116647-0.0002347474-0.000116647

    Regression of the population evolution on the evolution of the OT for Romania for the period 1990-2004

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9772119478

    R Square0.954943191

    Adjusted R Square0.9514772826

    Standard Error0.1173901688

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression13.79685412743.7968541274275.52464890430.0000000004

    Residual130.17914587260.0137804517

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.21934900330.1218699737198.7310595066023.956064982624.48263302423.956064982624.482633024

    X Variable 1-0.03585049410.0021598069-16.59893517380.0000000004-0.0405164722-0.0311845159-0.0405164722-0.0311845159

    Regression of the popilation evolution on the share of wages in total disposable income for Romania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.7262423955

    R Square0.527428017

    Adjusted R Square0.491076326

    Standard Error0.3801767002

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression12.09705379572.097053795714.50903665130.0021696257

    Residual131.87894620430.1445343234

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept20.55014715260.459496904144.7231460506019.557464634721.542829670619.557464634721.5428296706

    X Variable 10.02463528260.00646752713.80907293860.00216962570.01066304240.03860752280.01066304240.0386075228

    Regression of the population evolution on the labor productivity (GDP/w) for Romania for the period (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.7906862399

    R Square0.62518473

    Adjusted R Square0.5963527861

    Standard Error0.3385791026

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression12.48573448642.485734486421.68375234360.0004491334

    Residual131.49026551360.1146358087

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept23.29420563660.238681337197.5954212588022.778566056523.809845216622.778566056523.8098452166

    X Variable 1-0.0002889650.0000620552-4.65658161570.0004491334-0.000423027-0.000154903-0.000423027-0.000154903

    Regression of population evolution on CPI%,OT and GDP p.c. for Romania (1990-2004)GDPp.c. and OT for Romania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9857650872

    R Square0.971732807

    Adjusted R Square0.9640235726

    Standard Error0.1010806875

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression33.86360964081.2878698803126.04789935150.0000000085

    Residual110.11239035920.0102173054

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.0384299990.16949411141.8245743146023.665375789524.411484208523.665375789524.4114842085

    X Variable 10.00027002620.00058986230.45777839470.6560216798-0.00102825260.0015683051-0.00102825260.0015683051

    X Variable 2-0.00004132450.0000190921-2.16448497760.053286549-0.00008334590.0000006969-0.00008334590.0000006969

    X Variable 3-0.02888192440.0033092777-8.72756133920.0000028287-0.0361655993-0.0215982495-0.0361655993-0.0215982495

    Regression of the population evolution on theshare of wages in total disposablwe income and the labor productivity (GDP/w) for Romania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9412213541

    R Square0.8858976375

    Adjusted R Square0.8668805771

    Standard Error0.194437435

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression23.52232900671.761164503346.58436256870.0000022068

    Residual120.45367099330.0378059161

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept21.82028614950.313080519169.6954451498021.138142309322.502429989621.138142309322.5024299896

    X Variable 10.01817540380.0034710395.2363006130.00020904390.01061265960.02573814810.01061265960.0257381481

    X Variable 2-0.00022961170.0000373959-6.14001571540.0000502165-0.0003110905-0.0001481329-0.0003110905-0.0001481329

    Regression of population evolution on the CPI%, GDP p.c., OT,p.c.,OT,Wshare and GDP/w for Romania forf the period 1990-2004

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.992486895

    R Square0.9850302368

    Adjusted R Square0.9767137017

    Standard Error0.0813222523

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression53.91648022160.7832960443118.44238315460.0000000624

    Residual90.05951977840.0066133087

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.31132187370.43048493856.4742682694023.337496545525.285147201823.337496545525.2851472018

    X Variable 1-0.00043484630.0005848892-0.74346782560.4761578351-0.00175795850.000888266-0.00175795850.000888266

    X Variable 2-0.00019465670.000062102-3.13446754580.0120347772-0.0003351413-0.0000541721-0.0003351413-0.0000541721

    X Variable 3-0.03073800550.0046179095-6.65625981290.0000930694-0.0411844506-0.0202915605-0.0411844506-0.0202915605

    X Variable 4-0.00337352970.0035720797-0.9444161340.3696185204-0.01145414160.0047070822-0.01145414160.0047070822

    X Variable 50.00026180330.00010779582.42869706290.03806381080.00001795210.00050565450.00001795210.0005056545

    Regression of Populatoon evolutionon the stability index for Romania (1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.6744948486

    R Square0.4549433007

    Adjusted R Square0.4130158623

    Standard Error0.4082933934

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression11.80885456371.808854563710.85072969050.0058139567

    Residual132.16714543630.1667034951

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.89960614890.808231514530.8075170325023.153528454626.645683843323.153528454626.6456838433

    X Variable 1-0.0427766770.012986065-3.29404457930.0058139567-0.0708313594-0.0147219946-0.0708313594-0.0147219946

    Regressions of Populationon a selected set of variables

    GDP%CPI%OTStbIdxPop

    1990-5.67029.160.823.2

    1991-12.215732.136.623.1

    1992-8.7210.440.951.622.8

    19931.5156.1426722.7

    19943.9136.742.364.422.6

    19957.132.350.25722.4

    19963.928.857.364.422.3

    1997-6.1154.861.359.622.2

    1998-5.459.164.261.322.1

    1999-3.245.855.265.322

    20001.84062.26721.9

    20015.53066.866.421.8

    20024.62069.167.221.7

    20034.91474.26821.6

    20046972.96921.5

    Regression of Population on GDP%,CPI% and OT

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9813671011

    R Square0.9630813872

    Adjusted R Square0.9530126746

    Standard Error0.1155179658

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression33.82921159551.276403865295.65089667970.0000000366

    Residual110.14678840450.0133444004

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.03019373240.1938741092123.947410167023.603479479424.456907985523.603479479424.4569079855

    X Variable 1-0.00697780840.0069452051-1.00469436640.3366334488-0.02226410950.0083084926-0.02226410950.0083084926

    X Variable 20.0003985220.00071433230.55789444730.5880906985-0.00117371350.0019707576-0.00117371350.0019707576

    X Variable 3-0.03297236060.0029142247-11.31428230210.0000002125-0.0393865291-0.0265581921-0.0393865291-0.0265581921

    Regression of Population on OT and the StbIdx

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9803549574

    R Square0.9610958426

    Adjusted R Square0.9546118163

    Standard Error0.1135352111

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression23.82131707011.910658535148.22516246710.0000000035

    Residual120.15468292990.0128902442

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.48686483190.227161613107.7949065083023.991922203624.981807460223.991922203624.9818074602

    X Variable 1-0.03352987880.0026834818-12.49491560570.0000000308-0.0393766832-0.0276830743-0.0393766832-0.0276830743

    X Variable 2-0.00639064160.0046389606-1.37760203950.1934760289-0.01649806840.0037167851-0.01649806840.0037167851

    Regression of Population on all the above selected variables (GDP%,CPI%,OT and the StbIdx)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9819856877

    R Square0.9642958909

    Adjusted R Square0.9500142473

    Standard Error0.1191467741

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression43.83404046230.958510115667.51995186670.0000003378

    Residual100.14195953770.0141959538

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept24.21489509790.374534626664.6532880425023.380379800525.049410395423.380379800525.0494103954

    X Variable 1-0.00428909090.0085185949-0.50349746410.6255196959-0.02326970650.0146915246-0.02326970650.0146915246

    X Variable 20.00039355140.00073682120.53412062260.6049278223-0.00124818880.0020352915-0.00124818880.0020352915

    X Variable 3-0.03234826660.0031905629-10.13873339950.0000014008-0.039457285-0.0252392482-0.039457285-0.0252392482

    X Variable 4-0.00353391260.0060592027-0.58323063060.5726555949-0.01703465980.0099668346-0.01703465980.0099668346

    Regression of the Population evolution (Romania 1990-2004) on the GDP%, the CPI%, GDPp.c.,OT and the share of wages-Wshare in total disposable income

    GDP%CPI%GDPpcOTWsharePop

    1990-5.670303229.192.623.2

    1991-12.2157277732.179.223.1

    1992-8.7210.4275040.986.322.8

    19931.5156.128004284.222.7

    19943.9136.7409042.383.922.6

    19957.132.3436050.281.322.4

    19963.928.8430057.382.822.3

    1997-6.1154.8429061.346.722.2

    1998-5.459.1397064.25422.1

    1999-3.245.8564755.25722

    20001.840638062.251.121.9

    20015.530684066.84821.8

    20024.620779569.162.821.7

    20034.914955174.26321.6

    2004691159772.968.221.5

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9908806496

    R Square0.9818444617

    Adjusted R Square0.9717580516

    Standard Error0.0895584354

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression53.90381357990.78076271697.34330129930.0000001481

    Residual90.07218642010.0080207133

    Total143.976

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept23.26297913080.404463013257.5157143429022.34801953124.177938730622.34801953124.1779387306

    X Variable 1-0.01146589590.0063268373-1.81226343330.1033634354-0.02577820720.0028464153-0.02577820720.0028464153

    X Variable 2-0.00003772490.0005760356-0.0654905260.9492151133-0.00134080890.0012653592-0.00134080890.0012653592

    X Variable 3-0.00004935220.0000179203-2.7539775530.0223310438-0.0000898908-0.0000088135-0.0000898908-0.0000088135

    X Variable 4-0.02107528730.0047531712-4.43394238880.0016377841-0.0318277158-0.0103228588-0.0318277158-0.0103228588

    X Variable 50.00596563340.00291039972.04976425350.0706406913-0.00061815330.01254942-0.00061815330.01254942

    Po.ROVexplic.

    199023.2

    199123.1

    199222.8

    199322.7

    199422.6

    199522.4

    199622.3

    199722.2

    199822.1

    199922

    200021.9

    200121.8

    200221.7

    200321.6

    200421.521.5

    200521.4

    200621.37

    200721.35

    200821.33

    200921.32

    201021.31

    201121.3

    201221.3

    201321.29

    201421.29

    201521.28

    201621.28

    201721.27

    201821.27

    201921.321.3

    202021.34

    202121.38

    202221.4

    202321.42

    202421.44

    202521.45

    202621.46

    202721.46

    202821.47

    202921.47

    203021.5

    203121.6

    203221.7

    203321.9921.99

    203422

    203522.01

    203622.01

    203722.02

    203822.03

    203922.04

    204022.03

    PopRO-C

    18343.04

    18603.9

    18995.95

    19127.7

    191818

    193018.7

    194020.4

    194815.8

    195617.4

    196619.1

    197721.5

    199222.8

    200221.6

    201221.3

    202221.4

    203221.6

    204022.03

    Pop-RCP

    18343.04

    18603.9

    18995.95

    19127.7

    191818

    193018.7

    194020.4

    194815.8

    195619.2

    196624.1

    197728.6

    198729.5

    23.21990

    23.11991

    22.81992

    22.71993

    22.61994

    22.41995

    22.31996

    22.21997

    22.11998

    221999

    21.92000

    21.82001

    21.72002

    21.62003

    21.521.5

    21.42005

    21.372006

    21.352007

    21.332008

    21.322009

    21.312010

    21.32011

    21.32012

    21.292013

    21.292014

    21.282015

    21.282016

    21.272017

    21.272018

    21.321.3

    21.342020

    21.382021

    21.42022

    21.422023

    21.442024

    21.452025

    21.462026

    21.462027

    21.472028

    21.472029

    21.52030

    21.62031

    21.72032

    21.9921.99

    222034

    22.012035

    22.012036

    22.022037

    22.032038

    22.042039

    22.032040

    Po.RO

    Vexplic.

    Populatia in mil. locuitori

    Evolutia populatiei Romaniei intre 1990-2004 si prognoza pana in 2040, pe baza a trei variabile explicative

    GDP%

    Wshare

    CPI%

    3.04

    3.9

    5.95

    7.7

    18

    18.7

    20.4

    15.8

    17.4

    19.1

    21.5

    22.8

    21.6

    21.3

    21.4

    21.6

    22.03

    PopRO-C

    Populatia in mil.loc.

    Populatia Romaniei la recensaminte (pentru 1834 date statistice aproximative, 1918 -date valide fara recensamant,1940-date estimative;dupa 2002 date bazate pe prognoza, cu recensaminte presupuse la fiecare 10 ani)

    3.04

    3.9

    5.95

    7.7

    18

    18.7

    20.4

    15.8

    19.2

    24.1

    28.6

    29.5

    Pop-RCP

    Populatia in mil.loc.

    Populatia prezumata a Romaniei la recensaminte in cazul in care tara ar fi urmat o cale de dezvoltare naturala (capitalista) dupa cel de al doilea razboi mondial, luand in considerare, totusi, pierderea Bsarabiei si a Nordului Bucovinei

    19901990199019901990

    19911991199119911991

    23.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.0333333333

    22.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.8666666667

    22.722.722.722.722.7

    22.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.5666666667

    22.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.4333333333

    22.322.322.322.322.3

    22.222.222.222.222.2

    22.122.122.122.122.1

    2222222222

    21.921.921.921.921.9

    21.821.821.821.821.8

    21.721.721.721.721.7

    21.621.621.621.621.6

    21.868709277621.503573658322.174199457121.665321432521.2167157175

    21.914622181821.427632252421.627661773521.753282064920.8240039818

    22.024177763121.377330960822.159445857121.871769423920.4352660204

    21.801155751321.351653681721.503344978321.856701164320.3697606006

    21.834986088221.33472404322.136858399321.849521066520.3603603132

    21.838814749121.322128282721.720447191221.842527646420.4143977932

    21.839965170621.311943230121.850692597721.83512588420.4973785222

    21.840427524721.303568355821.845374920621.83007215220.5937449021

    21.84060058121.296551708921.844994462721.827268543320.6818474875

    21.840661468721.290550886621.84497633221.826132797620.7695554634

    21.84069129621.285325940221.844977435921.825192318420.8704567991

    21.840704376621.280752023521.844977518921.824423436520.9778915407

    21.840710272221.276630142321.844977499621.8237916721.0775812396

    21.840713025321.272833536321.844977503521.82325772421.159984907

    21.840714347221.269259918221.844977504421.822791607121.2283499109

    21.840715015321.265885066621.844977504721.822144760921.2838676063

    21.824619577521.262665475321.844977504821.821368682221.3282015975

    21.804389286121.259588291521.844977504921.820493967721.3631368888

    21.790563349821.256629161721.844977504921.813617672721.3903857762

    21.808918379721.25380402221.844977504921.813302140221.4114749799

    21.852836420221.251075499321.844977504921.812991357921.4277114542

    21.917168268521.248440806321.844977504921.819036075621.4401630476

    21.950963360821.245895630621.861389072421.818780475921.4496901114

    21.899680514121.243463214122.011440067621.818718972821.456972351

    21.837826848121.241136936721.864857292821.818628022321.4625443642

    21.794683576321.238917977621.940782036921.818674065621.4654903531

    21.817560531821.236792644721.723320658621.818854494121.4659817155

    21.826204343921.234746081721.868804759321.819164826121.4640057409

    21.831874818621.232760122121.776574488621.819469168821.6614295252

    21.835985363221.230830688121.843302601921.819749891421.8636625229

    21.838537774221.228941138421.844936768921.819987610422.0706604959

    21.84005882921.227093802521.846454836521.820042826922.078887388

    21.840894711521.225285824521.849691741221.820055062122.0860019367

    21.841296910121.223525896121.852359271421.819987007622.091036664

    21.841530666821.221804408821.854309221921.820035527422.0984488536

    21.841713795121.220115950321.855910999521.820008916922.1037832898

    PFgdppc

    PFCPI

    PFOT

    PFGDP%

    PFWshar

    mil.pers.

    Population Forecasts (RO-2040), smoothed series (moving averages) using different explanatory variables

    23.223.223.223.223.2

    23.123.123.123.123.1

    22.822.822.822.822.8

    22.722.722.722.722.7

    22.622.622.622.622.6

    22.422.422.422.422.4

    22.322.322.322.322.3

    22.222.222.222.222.2

    22.122.122.122.122.1

    2222222222

    21.921.921.921.921.9

    21.821.821.821.821.8

    21.721.721.721.721.7

    21.621.621.621.621.6

    21.521.521.521.521.5

    21.410720974921.895964297423.422598371222.506127832720.5501471526

    21.372175782321.863881897119.960386949421.737738712620.4218647927

    21.349096125221.855462077123.095352250621.828666743920.333786116

    21.333689137621.850759518721.454295734921.837061797320.3536308932

    21.321386866121.842341603721.860927212321.839229723320.3936639305

    21.311308844421.834481816621.846118626421.840152726720.495898556

    21.303133979721.828554231721.845031954321.840513061720.6025730801

    21.296262243321.827180407721.844974181121.840616785820.6827630702

    21.290258903721.826070990421.844977252821.840671895720.7602063122

    21.285131512721.825146994821.844977562121.840695724620.8656970078

    21.280587404121.8243589721.844977492821.840706267820.9854670772

    21.276537153621.823764344721.844977501821.840711137321.0825105371

    21.272765869221.823251695321.84497750421.840713411421.1647661046

    21.26919758621.82275713221.844977504621.840714527221.2326780792

    21.265816299521.822365994121.844977504821.840715103121.2876055487

    21.262641314321.821311156621.844977504821.840715415621.331319191

    21.25953881221.820428895821.844977504921.792428213721.3656800527

    21.256584748221.819741850821.844977504921.780024229121.3924114228

    21.25376392521.800682271421.844977504921.799237606521.4130658532

    21.251063392721.819482298221.844977504921.847493303521.4289476637

    21.248399180221.81880950421.844977504921.911778350621.4411208456

    21.245859845821.818816424721.844977504921.992233151421.4504206337

    21.243427865721.818715498821.894212207321.948878580521.4575288548

    21.241101930721.81862499522.295130490621.757929810421.4629675644

    21.238881013721.818543573121.405229180721.806672153521.4671366735

    21.236770988421.818853628822.121986439521.819448765121.4663668215

    21.23472593221.819166280321.642746355621.826560676721.4644416514

    21.232741324821.819474569321.841681482621.832603589821.4612087497

    21.230813109521.819766656821.845295627521.836460189322.0586381744

    21.2289376321.820008448121.842930695621.838892310622.0711406446

    21.227072675621.820187726421.846583983721.840260822622.0822026688

    21.22527110221.819932306321.849849830321.841023353722.0833188507

    21.223513695921.820045153721.852641409521.84139995822.0924842907

    21.221792890421.819983562921.854586574421.841467418522.0973068507

    21.2201066421.820077865621.855699681621.841724623922.1055554192

    21.218448320621.819965322221.857446742321.841949342722.1084875993

    PopF-CPI

    PF-GDP%

    PPopF-OT

    PF-gdppc

    PFWshar

    mil.pers.

    Population forecasts (RO-2040), non-smoothed series using different explanatory variables

    23.223.0333333333

    23.122.8666666667

    22.822.7

    22.722.5666666667

    22.622.4333333333

    22.422.3

    22.322.2

    22.222.1

    22.122

    2221.9

    21.921.8

    21.821.7

    21.721.6

    21.621.2167157175

    21.520.8240039818

    20.550147152620.4352660204

    20.421864792720.3697606006

    20.33378611620.3603603132

    20.353630893220.4143977932

    20.393663930520.4973785222

    20.49589855620.5937449021

    20.602573080120.6818474875

    20.682763070220.7695554634

    20.760206312220.8704567991

    20.865697007820.9778915407

    20.985467077221.0775812396

    21.082510537121.159984907

    21.164766104621.2283499109

    21.232678079221.2838676063

    21.287605548721.3282015975

    21.33131919121.3631368888

    21.365680052721.3903857762

    21.392411422821.4114749799

    21.413065853221.4277114542

    21.428947663721.4401630476

    21.441120845621.4496901114

    21.450420633721.456972351

    21.457528854821.4625443642

    21.462967564421.4654903531

    21.467136673521.4659817155

    21.466366821521.4640057409

    21.464441651421.6614295252

    21.461208749721.8636625229

    22.058638174422.0706604959

    22.071140644622.078887388

    22.082202668822.0860019367

    22.083318850722.091036664

    22.092484290722.0984488536

    22.097306850722.1037832898

    22.1055554192

    22.1084875993

    PFWshar

    PFWshar

    mil.pers.

    Population Forecast (RO-2040), non-smoothed series (left axis) & smoothed series (right axis) using the share of wages in total disposable income as explanatory variable

    GDP%CPI%Wshare

    1990-5.67092.6

    1991-12.215779.2

    1992-8.7210.486.3

    19931.5156.184.2

    19943.9136.783.9

    19957.132.381.3

    19963.928.882.8

    1997-6.1154.846.7

    1998-5.459.154

    1999-3.245.857

    20001.84051.1

    20015.53048

    20024.62062.8

    20034.91463

    20046968.2

    Regression of the share of wages (Wshare) on the GDP% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.1028988596

    R Square0.0105881753

    Adjusted R Square-0.0655204266

    Standard Error16.2167607434

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression136.586056237636.58605623760.13911929850.7151690475

    Residual133418.7832770957262.9833290074

    Total143455.3693333333

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept69.37163429614.188202910716.56358007830.000000000460.323573745778.419694846560.323573745778.4196948465

    X Variable 1-0.26274277950.7044287951-0.3729869950.7151690475-1.78456837581.2590828168-1.78456837581.2590828168

    Regressiion of the share of wages on the CPI% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.356010914

    R Square0.1267437709

    Adjusted R Square0.0595702148

    Standard Error15.2351385195

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression1437.9465391227437.94653912271.88681049920.1927868223

    Residual133017.4227942106232.1094457085

    Total143455.3693333333

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept62.8394573616.191260824510.14970280570.000000151449.464054111176.214860610949.464054111176.2148606109

    X Variable 10.08462898590.06161053711.37361220840.1927868223-0.04847246160.2177304334-0.04847246160.2177304334

    Regression of the share of wahes on the annual % variation of GDP and CPI (Romania 1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.4011775772

    R Square0.1609434485

    Adjusted R Square0.0211006899

    Standard Error15.5436221571

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression2556.1190561812278.05952809061.15088868440.3489373005

    Residual122899.2502771521241.6041897627

    Total143455.3693333333

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept59.81920231637.65176870527.81769609370.000004756943.147430776976.490973855843.147430776976.4909738558

    X Variable 10.63855425820.9130441810.69936841120.4976547454-1.35079808342.6279065999-1.35079808342.6279065999

    X Variable 20.12464697060.08500165651.46640637030.1682479254-0.0605557260.3098496672-0.0605557260.3098496672

    Regression of the GDP% annual variation on the CPI% annual variation (Romania 1990-2004)

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.6731654411

    R Square0.4531517111

    Adjusted R Square0.4110864581

    Standard Error4.721595318

    Observations15

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression1240.1583228271240.158322827110.77258969890.0059484139

    Residual13289.815010506222.2934623466

    Total14529.9733333333

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%

    Intercept4.72983306531.91876352712.46504219960.02839837410.58459728178.8750688490.58459728178.875068849

    X Variable 1-0.06266967010.0190940189-3.28216235110.0059484139-0.1039197822-0.021419558-0.1039197822-0.021419558

    GDP%CPI%AvWageGDPpcOTWshareGDP/wStbIdxPop

    1990-5.670138.6303229.192.6237460.823.2

    1991-12.215797.6277732.179.2243936.623.1

    1992-8.7210.482.6275040.986.3251551.622.8

    19931.5156.1103.128004284.225746722.7

    19943.9136.7109.8409042.383.9277764.422.6

    19957.132.3138.3436050.281.331535722.4

    19963.928.8138.4430057.382.8311964.422.3

    1997-6.1154.8121.8429061.346.7291859.622.2

    1998-5.459.1153397064.254289861.322.1

    1999-3.245.8127.7564755.257319665.322

    20001.840131638062.251.134956721.9

    20015.530145684066.848378366.421.8

    20024.620161779569.162.8496767.221.7

    20034.914203955174.26360866821.6

    2004692641159772.968.273916921.5

    Moving averages smoothing

    PFgdppcPFCPIPFOTPFGDP%PFWshar

    GDP%CPI%GDPpcOTWshareGDP/wPopF-CPIPF-GDP%PPopF-OTPF-gdppcPFWsharPFGDP/w1990

    1990-5.670303229.192.6237423.223.223.223.223.21991

    1991-12.2157277732.179.2243923.123.123.123.123.1199223.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.033333333323.0333333333

    1992-8.7210.4275040.986.3251522.822.822.822.822.8199322.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.866666666722.8666666667

    19931.5156.128004284.2257422.722.722.722.722.7199422.722.722.722.722.7

    19943.9136.7409042.383.9277722.622.622.622.622.6199522.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.566666666722.5666666667

    19957.132.3436050.281.3315322.422.422.422.422.4199622.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.433333333322.4333333333

    19963.928.8430057.382.8311922.322.322.322.322.3199722.322.322.322.322.3

    1997-6.1154.8429061.346.7291822.222.222.222.222.2199822.222.222.222.222.2

    1998-5.459.1397064.254289822.122.122.122.122.1199922.122.122.122.122.1

    1999-3.245.8564755.2573196222222222220002222222222

    20001.840638062.251.1349521.921.921.921.921.9200121.921.921.921.921.9