Leadership Pentru Secolul XXI

8/12/2019 Leadership Pentru Secolul XXI

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Leadership pentruManagementul Resurselor Umane

in secolul XXI

Teme de Curs:

Context Economic si Tehnologic pentru Leadership Contemporan Leadership si Managementul Resurselor Umane Dezvoltare Personala si Institutionala Evaluarea si Managementul Talentului in Organizatii

Bibliografie curs si culegere de texte:

One !orld" The Ethics o# $lo%alization&' Peter (inger' )ale

Universit* Press +,,+

Development as -reedom&' .mart*a (en

The -uture o# -reedom&' -areed /a0aria

The Post .merican !orld&' -areed /a0aria

In De#ense o# $lo%al Capitalism&' 1ohan 2or%erg

O# $lo%alization and Its Discontents&' 1oseph (tiglitz' 2e3 )or0"

!4!4 2orton 5 Compan*' +,,+

Plan 6 74,8 Mo%ilizing to (ave Civilisation& Lester 6ro3n

The Commanding 9eights" The 6attle 6et3een $overnment and

the Mar0etplace That Is Rema0ing the Modern !orld&' Daniel )erginand

1oseph (tanisla3' :;;


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more %* the spontaneous explosion o# energ*? #rom eager Indian and Chineseentrepreneurs4

-riedman o##ers an engrossing tour o# -lat !orld' %ut he sometimesoverestimates its novelt*4 -or starters' the glee o# $lo%alization 74,s pla*ers atthe prospect o# a seemingl* %orderless 3orld is hardl* ne34 ?Merchants have nocountr*'? 1e##erson 3rote in :4 ?The mere spot the* stand on does notconstitute so strong an attachment as that #rom 3hich the* dra3 their gains4?(imilarl*' -riedman is right that China might no3 %e more leer* a%out attac0inghigh8tech Tai3an #or #ear o# snarling international trade and manu#acturing lines'giving the island its so8called silicon shield4 6ut his puc0ishl* named DellTheor* o# Con#lict Prevention 88 ?2o t3o countries that are %oth part o# a maGorglo%al suppl* chain' li0e Dells' 3ill ever #ight a 3ar against each other as long asthe* are %oth part o# the same glo%al suppl* chain? 88 s0ates past the #act that

potential %elligerents have al3a*s 3eighed the economic costs o# 3ar' o#ten 3ith%reathta0ing inaccurac*4 J(addam 9ussein thought go%%ling up u3ait in.ugust :;;, 3ould let him dominate the 3orld oil mar0et' not shatter his arm*and usher in a decade o# crippling sanctions4K .nd the argument that tradeinhi%its %elligerence dates %ac0 at least to ant4

-riedman also does not have a compelling re%uttal #or 9arvards Michael (andel'3ho calls -lat !orlds ne3 horizontal colla%oration ?Gust a nice name #or thea%ilit* to hire cheap la%or in India4? -or instance' Indian techies had themanpo3er and am%ition to do the ?huge' tedious Go%? o# #ixing the !ests )+computer %ug' giving India a surge o# IT %usiness that -riedman calls ?a secondIndian Independence Da*4? 6ut Indias )+ 3ind#all could %e read Gust as easil*as a sign o# dependence' o# reliance on tas0s that .merican 3or0ers no longer3ant4 -riedman rightl* notes that ?lo383age' lo38prestige Go%s in .merica 4 4 4

%ecome high83age' high8prestige Go%s? 3hen outsourced to India4 6ut in an era3here' as -riedman puts it' %oth pride and humiliation get served up to *ou via#i%er8optic ca%le' its not at all clear 3ell li0e the long8term geopoliticalconseuences o# having emerging po3ers reliant on scraps #rom the .mericaneconomic ta%le4

-riedmans evangelism never entirel* alla*s the suspicion that ?the single mostimportant trend in the 3orld toda*? is actuall* the empt* hal# o# the glass4 In asense' The !orld Is -lat serves as a sort o# %oo0end to this springs other

%loc0%uster economics %oo0' 1e##re* D4 (achss The End o# Povert*' 3hichangril* notes that some +,',,, people die unnecessaril* ever* da* #romstarvation and diseases li0e malaria 3hile the developed 3orld #iddles4 Much o#

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the 3orld is indeed #lat 88 #lat %ro0e4 ?)ou cannot drive economic gro3th'?-riedman ac0no3ledges' ?in a place 3here B, percent o# the people are in#ected3ith malaria or hal# o# the 0ids are malnourished or a third o# the mothers ared*ing o# .ID(4?

.nd then theres ;::4 ?The #lat 3orld 88 un#ortunatel* 88 is a #riend o# %othIn#os*s and al8aeda'? -riedman 3rites' since %oth rel* on the imaginative use o#the Internet and glo%al suppl* chains and since %oth are super8empo3ered %* a#latter pla*ing #ield magni#*ing the importance o# individuals and groups4 -airenough' %ut 3h* does RaGesh Rao matter more than Osama %in Laden' the Lexusmore than the olive tree' #lat83orld glo%alization more than the #ar8#lung struggle3ith Gihadism that -riedman himsel# has li0ened to !orld !ar IIIH 9e doesntuite sa*4 .s one 3ould expect #rom the author o# the %rilliant -rom 6eirut to1erusalem' his treatment o# ;:: and Middle Eastern issues is insight#ul and

deepl* in#ormed' %ut it doesnt convincingl* settle the uestion o# 3hether glo%altrade or glo%al terror is our ages central organizing principle4 I# al aeda ever

%u*s' %uilds or steals even a small nuclear %om% 88 ta0ing advantage o# the 6ushadministrations leisurel* %elie# that .merica can a##ord to 3ait until sometimea#ter +,,< to secure poorl* guarded Russian nuclear 3eapons and material 88 thesurging gro3th o# the Indian and Chinese entrepreneurial classes ma* seemlargel* o# academic interest4

!hile The !orld Is -lat is not a classic li0e -rom 6eirut to 1erusalem' it is stillan enthralling read4 To his great credit' -riedman em%races much o# his #lat3orlds complexit*' and his reporting %rings to vi%rant li#e some %eguilingcharacters and trends4 I# his %oo0 is marred %* an exasperating reliance on the#irst person and a surplus o# catch phrases J? -riedman' I said to m*sel#' loo0ingat this scene' *ou are so t3entieth8centur*4 4 4 4 )ou are so $lo%alization +4, ?K' itis also more livel*' provocative and sophisticated than the over3helming %ul0 o##oreign polic* commentar* these da*s4 !eve no real idea ho3 the +:st centur*shistor* 3ill un#old' %ut this terri#icall* stimulating %oo0 3ill certainl* inspirereaders to start thin0ing it all through4 N

!arren 6ass is a senior editor at 6oo0 !orld and a #ormer mem%er o# the ;::Commission sta##4 9e is the author o# ?(upport .n* -riend" enned*s MiddleEast and the Ma0ing o# the U4(48Israel .lliance'? 3hich 3as recentl* released in

paper%ac04

+,,B The !ashington Post Compan*

@


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tells -riedman' i# *ou had to choose %et3een %eing %orn a genius in Mum%ai or(hanghai and an average person in Pough0eepsie' *ou 3ould have chosenPough0eepsie %ecause *our chances o# living a prosperous and #ul#illed li#e 3eremuch greater there4 2o3' $ates sa*s' I 3ould rather %e a genius %orn in Chinathan an average gu* %orn in Pough0eepsie4

The %oo0 is done in -riedmans trademar0 st*le4 )ou travel 3ith him' meet his3i#e and 0ids' learn a%out his #riends and sit in on his intervie3s4 (ome #ind thisirritating4 I thin0 it 3or0s in ma0ing complicated ideas accessi%le4 .nother Indianentrepreneur' 1err* Rao' explained to -riedman 3h* his accounting #irm in6angalore 3as a%le to prepare tax returns #or .mericans4 JIn +,,B' an estimated>,,',,, .merican I4R4(4 returns 3ere prepared in India4K .n* activit* 3here 3ecan digitize and decompose the value chain' and move the 3or0 around' 3ill getmoved around4 (ome people 3ill sa*' )es' %ut *ou cant serve me a stea04 True'

%ut I can ta0e the reservation #or *our ta%le sitting an*3here in the 3orld' Raosa*s4 9e ended the intervie3 %* descri%ing his next plan' 3hich is to lin0 up 3ithan Israeli compan* that can transmit C.T scans via the Internet so that.mericans can get a second opinion #rom an Indian or Israeli doctor' uic0l* andcheapl*4

!hat created the #lat 3orldH -riedman stresses technological #orces4Paradoxicall*' the dot8com %u%%le pla*ed a crucial role4 Telecommunicationscompanies li0e $lo%al Crossing had hundreds o# millions o# dollars o# cash 88given to them %* gulli%le investors 88 and the* used it to pursue incredi%l*am%itious plans to 3ire the 3orld' la*ing #i%er8optic ca%le across the ocean#loors' connecting 6angalore' 6ang0o0 and 6eiGing to the advanced industrialcountries4 This excess suppl* o# connectivit* meant that the costs o# phone calls'Internet connections and data transmission declined dramaticall* 88 sodramaticall* that man* o# the companies that laid these ca%les 3ent %an0rupt46ut the deed 3as done' the 3orld 3as 3ired4 Toda* it costs a%out as much toconnect to $uangdong as it does 2e3 1erse*4

The next %lo3 in this one8t3o punch 3as the dot8com %ust4 The stoc0 mar0et

crash made companies ever*3here cut spending4 That meant the* needed to loo0#or 3a*s to do 3hat the* 3ere doing #or less mone*4 The solution" outsourcing4$eneral Electric had led the 3a* a decade earlier and %* the late :;;,s man*large .merican companies 3ere recognizing that Indian engineers could handlemost technical Go%s the* needed done' at a tenth the cost4 The preparations #or)+' the millennium %ug' gave a huge impetus to this shi#t since most !esterncompanies needed armies o# cheap so#t3are 3or0ers to recode their computers4


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!elcome to 6angalore4

. good %it o# the %oo0 is ta0en up 3ith a discussion o# these technological #orcesand the 3a* in 3hich %usiness has reacted and adapted to them4 -riedmanexplains the importance o# the development o# 3or0 #lo3 plat#orms' so#t3arethat made it possi%le #or all 0inds o# computer applications to connect and 3or0together' 3hich is 3hat allo3ed seamless cooperation %* people 3or0ingan*3here4 It is the creation o# this plat#orm' 3ith these uniue attri%utes' that isthe trul* important sustaina%le %rea0through that has made 3hat *ou call the#lattening o# the 3orld possi%le' Microso#ts chie# technolog* o##icer' Craig 14Mundie' told -riedman4

-riedman has a #lair #or %usiness reporting and #inds amusing stories a%out !al8Mart' UP(' Dell and 1et6lue' among others' that relate to his %asic theme4 Did

*ou 0no3 that 3hen *ou order a %urger at the drive8through McDonalds onInterstate BB near Cape $irardeau' Mo4' the person ta0ing *our order is at a callcenter ;,, miles a3a* in Colorado (pringsH J9e or she then zaps it %ac0 to thatMcDonalds and the order is read* a #e3 minutes later as *ou drive around to the

pic0up 3indo34K Or that 3hen *ou call 1et6lue #or a reservation' *oure tal0ing toa house3i#e in Utah' 3ho does the Go% part timeH Or that 3hen *ou ship *ourToshi%a laptop #or repairs via UP(' its actuall* UP(s gu*s in the #unn* %ro3nshorts 3ho do the #ixingH

China and India loom large in -riedmans stor* %ecause the* are the t3o %igcountries %ene#iting most #rom the #lat 3orld4 To ta0e Gust one example' !al8Mart alone last *ear imported Q:< %illion 3orth o# goods #rom its B',,, Chinesesuppliers4 J-riedman doesnt do the math' %ut this 3ould mean that o# !al8Marts@',,, suppliers'


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annuall* 88 a trul* %reathta0ing pace4

-riedman descri%es his honest reaction to this ne3 3orld 3hile hes at one o#Indias great outsourcing companies' In#os*s4 9e 3as standing' he sa*s' at thegate o%serving this river o# educated *oung people #lo3ing in and out4 4 4 4 The*all loo0ed as i# the* had scored :@,, on their (.Ts4 4 4 4 M* mind Gust 0epttelling me' Ricardo is right' Ricardo is right4 4 4 4 These Indian techies 3ere doing3hat 3as their comparative advantage and then turning around and using theirincome to %u* all the products #rom .merica that are our comparative advantage44 4 4 6oth our countries 3ould %ene#it4 4 4 4 6ut m* e*e 0ept 4 4 4 telling mesomething else" Oh' m* $od' there are Gust so man* o# them' and the* all loo0 soserious' so eager #or 3or04 .nd the* Gust 0eep coming' 3ave a#ter 3ave4 9o3 inthe 3orld can it possi%l* %e good #or m* daughters and millions o# other *oung.mericans that these Indians can do the same Go%s as the* can #or a #raction o#

the 3agesH

9e ends up' 3isel*' understanding that theres no 3a* to stop the 3ave4 )oucannot s3itch o## these #orces except at great cost to *our o3n economic 3ell8

%eing4 Over the last centur*' those countries that tried to preserve their s*stems'Go%s' culture or traditions %* 0eeping the rest o# the 3orld out all stagnated4 Thosethat opened themselves up to the 3orld prospered4 6ut that doesnt mean *oucant do an*thing to prepare #or this ne3 competition and ne3 3orld4 -riedmanspends a good chun0 o# the %oo0 outlining 3a*s that .merica and .mericans can

place themselves in a position to do %etter4

People in advanced countries have to #ind 3a*s to move up the value chain' tohave special s0ills that create superior products #or 3hich the* can charge extra4The UP( stor* is a classic example o# this4 Delivering goods doesnt have highmargins' %ut repairing computers Jand in e##ect managing a suppl* chainK does4In one o# -riedmans classic anecdote8as8explanation shtic0s' he recounts that oneo# his %est #riends is an illustrator4 The #riend sa3 his %usiness %eginning to dr*up as computers made routine illustrations eas* to do' and he moved on tosomething ne34 9e %ecame an illustration consultant' helping clients conceive o#

3hat the* 3ant rather than simpl* executing a dra3ing4 -riedman explains this in-riedman metaphors" the #riends 3or0 %egan as a chocolate sauce' 3as turnedinto a vanilla commodit*' through upgraded s0ills %ecame a special chocolatesauce again' and then had a cherr* put on top4 .ll clearH

O# course it 3ont %e as eas* as that' as -riedman 0no3s4 9e points to thedramatic erosion o# .mericas science and technolog* %ase' 3hich has %een

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mas0ed in recent decades %* another aspect o# glo%alization4 .merica no3imports #oreigners to do the scienti#ic 3or0 that its citizens no longer 3ant to door even 0no3 ho3 to do4 2earl* one in #ive scientists and engineers in the United(tates is an immigrant' and B: percent o# doctorates in engineering go to#oreigners4 .mericas soaring health care costs are increasingl* a %urden in aglo%al race' particularl* since .merican industr* is especiall* disadvantaged onthis issue4 .n .merican carma0er pa*s a%out Q@',,, per 3or0er #or health care4I# it moves its #actor* up to Canada' 3here the government runs and pa*s #ormedical coverage' the compan* pa*s onl* Q


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sta## 3riter at the 2e3 Repu%lic to tour the soccer capitals o# the 3orld4 9e setout to o%serve soccer as a 3a* to understand the conseuences o# glo%alization 88the increasing interdependence o# the 3orlds nations 88 %* stud*ing a sport in3hich ?national %orders and national identities had %een s3ept into the dust%in o#soccer histor*4? The result is a travelogue #ull o# important insights into %othcultural change and persistence4

-oer returned #rom this glo%al tour convinced that glo%alization has not and 3illnot soon 3ipe a3a* local institutions and cultures4 On the contrar*' he suspectsthat the opposite has happened" In response to the threat o# glo%al integration'local entities have launched counterattac0s that are success#ul %ut ?not al3a*s insuch a good 3a*4? Local %lood #euds and corruption have proved to %eremar0a%l* persistent4 (o persistent' in #act' that -oer %elieves that glo%alizationis not li0el* to deliver on the promise o# a more humane 3orld order that some o#

its proponents anticipate4 That 3ould reuire a li%eral nationalism' a developmentnecessar* ?to %lunt the return o# tri%alism4? (occer' at its %est' sho3s ho3 thismight 3or04 -or -oer' the sport demonstrates that ?*ou could love *our countr* 88even consider it a superior group 88 3ithout desiring to dominate other groups orclosing *oursel# o## to #oreign impulses4?

Regarding the ?not so good 3a*s? that locals respond to glo%alism' -oer #oundmuch to 3orr* a%out4 The 3orld o# soccer can %e uite ugl*4 In (er%ia' #ans o#Red (tar 6elgrade %ecame' as he puts it' ?Milosevics shoc0 troops' the mostactive agents o# ethnic cleansing' highl* e##icient practitioners o# genocide4? The?un#inished #ight over the Protestant Re#ormation? is 0ept alive in the stands in$lasgo34 .nd' at least as he reports it' Margaret Thatcher 3as not #ar o## themar0 3hen she said that the hooliganism that emerged in soccer during the :;


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national teams success#ul capture o# a !orld Cup %erth in :;;=4 The team itsel#3as at least to some extent a participant in the li%eral glo%al order" Its coach 3asa 6razilian 3ho 3ore a nec0tie' an accessor* that the ruling clerg* considered aEuropean imposition4 6ut the victor* cele%ration and its a#termath 3ere evenmore important4 -oer reports that man* o# the *ounger cele%rants 3ere 3omen'some o# 3hom danced 3ith uncovered heads4 -urther' at the o##icial cele%rationat the stadium' 3hen 3omen 3ere denied entrance the* mounted ademonstration4 The* shouted' ?.rent 3e part o# this nationH !e 3ant tocele%rate too4 !e arent ants4? Ultimatel* the* %ro0e through the police %arriersand Goined the mass victor* part*4 -oer compares this ?#oot%all revolution? to the6oston Tea Part*4 9e notes that the event 3ill ?go do3n as the moment 3hen the

people #irst realized that the* could challenge their t*rannical rulers4? .s theUnited (tates loo0s #or 3a*s to encourage li%eralism 3ithin Islam' an event suchas this deserves attention4 Its impact suggests that Paul !ol#o3itz' i# no one else'

should read this account4

U4(4 exceptionalism is no3here more evident than in soccer4 Millions o# 0idshave pla*ed it' and ?soccer mom? has %ecome part o# our political voca%ular*4)et as a commercial enterprise' soccer largel* has #ailed here4 There is no massmar0et #or the sport4 -oer does not reall* o##er an explanation o# this #ailure4Rather' he contents himsel# 3ith a di##erent argument" a class anal*sis o# theattractiveness o# the sport to *uppie parents4 9e argues that middle8class and

pro#essional parents reGect .merican #oot%all as too violent' %ase%all as toostress#ul J%ecause its pitcher%atter encounter is potentiall* ego8de#latingK and

%as0et%all as ghetto8tainted4 The* choose soccer %ecause it can ?minimize thepain o# competition 3hile still teaching li#e lessons4? Ma*%e' %ut -oer does notprovide enough evidence on this to %e convincing4

The vein o# optimism that #lo3s through the %oo0 is made explicit in his chapteron the -C 6arcelona clu% 88 his #avorite team4 This clu%' he 3rites' possesses amodernist aesthetic' rooted in its 3or0er8cooperative origins and rein#orced %* itss*m%olic role in Catalan opposition to -ranco4 The sophistication o# the team 88 it

possesses its o3n art museum' season tic0et holders vote #or the teams

administration' and its #ollo3ers are 0no3ledgea%le a%out %oth sport and politics88 redeems the game ?%* sho3ing that #ans can love a clu% and a countr* 3ith

passion and 3ithout turning into a thug or terrorist4?

-oer %elieves that nationalism need not %e xenopho%ic and that patriotism andcosmopolitanism are compati%le4 9is reading o# soccer does not ignore theugliness that can %e associated 3ith sport and there#ore societ*4 6ut it does hold

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out hope that sport can %e a vehicle #or li%eralism Jas it has %een in IranK andencourage a %enign #orm o# group identi#ication Jas it has done in (painK4

2ot3ithstanding contemporar* claims o# civilizations in con#lict' -oers soccerod*sse* lends 3eight to the argument that a humane 3orld order is possi%le4 6utglo%alization alone cannot %e relied upon to accomplish that goal4 . 3orld ordero# tolerance and respect also reuires the institutions o# a vi%rant domesticli%eralism4 N

1a* R4 Mandle is the !4 6rad#ord !ile* Pro#essor o# Economics at ColgateUniversit* and the author o# ?$lo%alization and the Poor4?

+,,> The !ashington Post Compan*

/# The +nd of 0o!ert,: +conomic 0ossibilities for 1ur Time

Intervie3 cu autorul' 1e##re* D4 (achs' de 1oanne 14 M*ers in cadrul Pu%lic.##airs Programal Carnegie Councilhttp"3334carnegiecouncil4orgresourcestranscriptsB:7+4htmlSresidsaS-ile:TheSEndSo#SPovert*4pd#

2#Ma3ing globalisation 4or3 for e!er,one: The +uropean Union and 4orldtrade6rosura a Comisiei UEhttp"ec4europa4eupu%lications%oo0letsmove7=en4pd#

5# The +U6s $lobal $o!ernance 7ersus China6s *armonious &orld 8ARI9

!ang )ouming la Institutul Regal Elcanohttp"3334realinstitutoelcano4org3ps3cmconnect@;;e+#7e@%B


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3hat I had to sa*4 The EU vie3s China 3ith a com%ination o# a3e' ignorance'#ear' con#usion and am%ition4 It is a3ed %* Chinas rise4 It is largel* ignorant o#China4 Real 0no3ledge o# China' and .sia more generall*' is pathetic in6russels' as it is in all European capitals 3ith the partial exception o# London4European sophisticates constantl* disparage .merican insularit*' %ut 0no3ledgeo# .sia is #ar superior inside the 6elt3a*' and in thin0 tan0s and universities inthe United (tates' than it is an*3here in Europe4 Ignorance mixed 3ith arroganceis not an .merican preserveA it is #ound in a%undance on the Old Continent' asan* visit to a Parisian intellectual salon 3ill reveal4Then there is #ear o# China' especiall* 3hen relations 3ith it are vie3ed inmilitaristic' zero8sum terms4 Perhaps that re#lects an atavistic -rench 3orld8vie34.nd con#usion reigns' #or the EU' %eing a non8nation8state h*%rid' has no #oreign

polic* to3ards China and is o#ten undermined %* the #oreign policies o# its %igthree mem%er8states JU' -rance and $erman*K4 Last' despite these dra3%ac0s'

the EUs am%ition is to %e a privileged interlocutor and at the top ta%le 3ithChina4 That re#lects the EUs sel#8image as a po3er& in the 3orld4EU po3erThe EU is a po3er& in one sense" its mar0et size4 It is the %iggest economicspace on the planet' the %iggest trading region Jaccounting #or a%out a #i#th o#3orld tradeK' and the %iggest region #or #oreign direct investment Jaccounting #oralmost hal# the stoc0s and #lo3s o# out3ard and in3ard -DIK4 This real economic

po3er has t3o pillars" the (ingle Mar0et and the Common Commercial Polic*4The EU can promote or restrict access to its internal mar0et' 3hich it uses as a%argaining chip to gain access to #oreign mar0ets4 It is no accident that internal8mar0et and trade policies are the t3o most centralised components o# EU polic*8ma0ing4 The* are as hard& as EU po3er gets4 .nd the* encourage the EU toexport its regulator* model& to the rest o# the 3orld through trade negotiationsand other means4 That applies to la%our and environmental standards' climatechange' product and #ood8sa#et* standards' competition rules' government

procurement regulations' all the 3a* to Corporate (ocial Responsi%ilit*' humanrights' democrac* and animal 3el#are4

6ut EU po3er is severel* constrained in ever* other 3a*4 Unli0e the United(tates and China' the EU has no collective militar* po3er4 Rather it advertisesso#t po3er& through diplomac*' support o# international organisations'international la3 and #oreign aid4 6ut this is a %it o# a Go0e 88 mere postmodernhot air4 It is no su%stitute #or hard po3er4 .s Les $el%' the president emeritus o#the Council #or -oreign Relations in 2e3 )or0' uips' so#t po3er is li0e

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#orepla*A it isnt the real thing4 .sians are acutel* a3are o# this' #or .sian elitesare almost 3ithout exception hard8%oiled realists4 The* do not %u* e##eminateso#t8po3er tal04 (o#t po3er as a replacement #or hard po3er is in realit* thedenial o# po3er4 -or the EU' given its ina%ilit* to exercise real political andmilitar* po3er in the 3orld' so#t po3er translates into h*peractivit* ininternational organisations and the elevation o# process over su%stance46ureaucratic running around in international #orums is the EUs #oreign polic*A itis an end in itsel#4 EU #oreign polic* is impotence in search o# iagra F that nevercomes4 The EUs choice o# a ne3 president and #oreign8polic* chie# is as vividan illustration as an* o# this pathetic realit*4International organisations and multilateralism have their place4 6ut the EUvastl* overestimates their importance in terms o# their a%ilit* to solve glo%al

pro%lems4 Usuall*' large8group activit* in international organisations is a lot o#

sound and #ur* that delivers stalemate' not results4 That is the U2 3a*&' and itcan also %e seen in !TO negotiations' the IM- and the !orld 6an04 Moreimportant #or glo%al pro%lem8solving' inside and outside internationalorganisations' is small8group cooperation4 That usuall* reuires cooperationamong %ig po3ers that have %oth hard and so#t po3er4 Emerging non8!estern

po3ers F China in the lead F must inevita%l* pla* %igger roles in these concerts4(ince :;>B' such cooperation has almost invaria%l* reuired the initiative andleadership o# the United (tates4 9ere the EU is incapa%le o# leading or co8leadingA and there remains no su%stitute #or U( leadership4

The EU also su##ers #rom a paradox4 !ith enlargement and greater mar0et size itis 3eightier in the glo%al econom*4 6ut at the same time its decision8ma0ing has

%ecome more #ragmented' ma0ing it more di##icult to coordinate nationalpositions and spea0 3ith one voice4 That decreases its a%ilit* to 3ield collectivepo3er a%road4 In the one arena 3here the EU is a glo%al heav*3eight 88 tradepolic* 88 competence is divided on several issues' nota%l* services andinvestment4 .n enlarged EU ma0es it extra8di##icult to have credi%le positions ininternational negotiations on services and investment4 The Lis%on Treat* issupposed to overcome these pro%lems %* streamlining decision8ma0ing4 6ut that

ma* not %e the result' especiall* 3ith greater po3er #or the European Parliament4On trade polic*' mar0et8sceptical #orces and single8issue #etishists in the EP ma*complicate decision8ma0ing and tilt polic* outcomes in a more protectionistdirection4-inall*' the glo%al economic crisis has made the EU more de#ensive and in3ard8loo0ing4 .s a rule o# thum%' the EU has a more li%eral trade polic* 3hen the

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internal mar0et is opening up and integrating4 6ut trade polic* %ecomes moreprotectionist 3hen the internal mar0et is under stress and deprived o# the ox*geno# mar0et re#orms4 That is roughl* the situation toda*4 The internal mar0et is

%u##eted %* crisis8induced mem%er8state measures Jmost o%viousl* on su%sidiesKthat result in protectionism against other mem%er8states4 .nd there is nostructural re#orm agenda4 That inevita%l* ma0es the EU more de#ensive 3iththird countries4EU8China relationsThe EU and China have the 3orlds second most important trade8and8investmentrelationship Ja#ter the transatlantic relationshipK4 The EU is Chinas %iggesttrading partner4 China is the EUs second %iggest trading partner and its %iggestsource o# goods imports4 European multinationals have poured investment into

China and are prominent in east8.sian suppl* chains Jin 3hich China is usuall*the last assem%l* stage %e#ore #inished products are exported %ac0 to the !estK4(uch deep commercial relations lead inexora%l* to commercial and politicaltensions' as the* do in U(8China relations4EU8China relations parallel U(8China relations in some 3a*s4 The EU' li0e theUnited (tates' claims un#air& Chinese competition #rom an allegedl*undervalued exchange rate' trade surpluses and hidden export su%sidies4 .nd itcomplains o# lac0 o# access to the Chinese mar0et due to 3ea0 intellectual8

propert* rights' standards reuirements meant to protect domestic producers' andrestrictions on services' investment and government procurement4 China %emoansits lac0 o# mar0et8econom* status& in the United (tates and EU' in addition toother protectionist measures such as trade remedies' standards restrictions and

pea0 tari##s46ut the EU and United (tates also have di##erent approaches to China F 3ith thecomparison #avouring the United (tates4 -irst' the EU has tried to cop* the U(8China (trategic and Economic Dialogue' the high8level #orum used to addressmar0et8access issues and de#use %ilateral tensions4 6ut the EU8China 9igh8Level

Dialogue has come to nought4 It has not gone %e*ond o##icial exchanges o#esta%lished positions and shallo3 summitr*4 It has not led to deeper engagementon 0e* issues4 That 3as a%undantl* clear at the last EU8China summit in

2ovem%er4(econd' the EU is 3orse than the United (tates at pushing mar0et8access

priorities 3ith the Chinese4 The latter ta0e .merican negotiators seriousl*

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%ecause the* ma0e concrete demands #rom a relativel* #ocused priorit* list4 Thisis %ac0ed up %* mar0et intelligence and vigorous lo%%*ing %* U( companies andindustr* associations4 EU negotiators have a reputation #or presenting theirChinese counterparts 3ith a long laundr*8list o# demands rather than a #ocused

priorit* list4 .nd European companies and industr* associations are not nearl* asvigorous and e##ective as their .merican counterparts4Third' the EU has a ha%it o# mixing non8trade issues 3ith its trade priorities4La%our and environmental standards' climate change' democrac*' human rights'and even animal 3el#are' 0eep intruding on the trade agenda' sometimes 3ith thethreat o# trade sanctions4 (ome non8trade issues' including human rights' should

%e raised 3ith the Chinese' %ut 0ept on separate trac0s #rom trade' 3ithoutthreatening trade sanctions4 Mixing them up allo3s the Chinese to exploit intra8EU divisions4 This o#ten translates into %loc0age on the trade agenda and supine

EU %ac0trac0ing 3hen #aced 3ith Chinese piue and threats on human rights' #orexample4 This relates to a #ourth point4 The Chinese are generall* s0il#ul andsuccess#ul at exploiting intra8EU divisions' especiall* among the 6ig Three4.nd #i#th' to repeat' the EU has no hard po3er4 That' in com%ination 3ith all thea%ove' causes Chinese leaders and o##icials to treat their EU counterparts 3ithless seriousness' and even respect' than their .merican counterparts4 One thingthe Chinese do not respect is 3impishness4 .nd there is a strong 3hi## o# that3ith EU so#t po3er4

""# A 8short9 to>do list for the $%?Daniel $ros :, 2ovem%er +,:,http"3334ceps4eus*stem#iles%oo0+,:,::2ov+,D$+,on+,$+,4pd#

"%#China6s Rise and the Changing Rules of the $ame in the International1rder a CEP( report %* Maai0e O0ano89eiGmans 5 -rans8Paul van der Putten

http"3334ceps4eus*stem#iles%oo0:


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6ut such #ailures' i# #ollo3ed %* an appropriate change o# strateg*' are li0el* to%e permanentl* or #atall* damaging to the Union itsel#4 . continuing loss o#political legitimac*' ho3ever' could pose a mortal threat to %oth the EU and the3ider process o# European integration4 The 3arning signals in recent *ears o# agro3ing popular unease a%out the evolution o# the EU can no longer %e ignored4Opinion polls con#irm that the gul# %et3een the EU institutions and citizens inman* o# its += Mem%er (tates is still gro3ing4

The EU 3ill not %e a%le to con#ront the challenges o# glo%alisation unless it%ecomes less technocratic and diplomatic' and more political and democratic4This must involve political parties giving voters in European elections a greaterchoice o# alternative polic* strategies4

The European pu%lic is %e3ildered %* the complexities o# polic*8ma0ing anddecision8ta0ing in the EU4 This is' in part' due to the speed o# developments'especiall* the Jnecessar*K enlargement o# the Union and seemingl* constantchanges in %oth EU polic* and governance4 oters have little idea ho3 to engage3ith the European process or 3hat democratic choices the* are %eing called on toma0e4 EU a##airs tend to %e dismissed as excessivel* technocratic and diplomatic'and insu##icientl* political and democratic4

!hat passes #or pu%lic de%ate on Europe in man* Mem%er (tates does not help4The political elites in most countries conduct their pu%lic discourse a%out EUa##airs in a ludicrousl* short8sighted 3a*4 uic0 to demonise the Union and its

institutions 3hen unpopular decisions are ta0en F ver* o#ten at the instigation o#the Mem%er (tates themselves F governments have not surprisingl* #ound itdi##icult to mo%ilise support #or the EU 3hen the* have desperatel* needed to intheir o3n interests4 It is less 3idel* appreciated that national politicians and

political institutions are held in even lo3er esteem than the EU and its institutionsin most Mem%er (tates4

Opinion polls reveal a startling decline in pu%lic con#idence in national politicalparties and government s*stems' irrespective o# the political orientation o#speci#ic governments4 -i#t* *ears ago' one in :: o# the electorate %elonged to a

political part*A toda*' the #igure is Gust one in


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against unpopular Mem%er (tate governments4 The re#erenda on the proposedConstitutional Treat* provided an irresisti%le opportunit* #or voters in -rance andthe 2etherlands to punish deepl* unpopular national administrations' mainl*

%ecause o# domestic economic' political or social issues uite unrelated to theEU4 6ut as a conseuence o# the t3o V2o votes' the proposed EU treat* has %eenderailed4

!h* should voters #eel so disenchanted 3ith national politiciansH There has %eena stri0ing decline in Videological politics since the end o# the Cold !ar4 oterstoda* are no3 uncertain 3hat the %asic Vmission and values o# mainstream

parties reall* are4 .ccelerating %ureaucratisation and the pro#essionalisation o#part* politics has also marginalised the in#luence o# voluntar* part* mem%ers4Parties across Europe report a massive decline in mem%ership4 The energ* andthe idealism 3hich led *ounger people to Goin political parties in the past no3

tend to lead them into support #or single8issue campaigns and activit* involuntar* organisations4

.t the same time' glo%alisation is restricting the political space 3hich partiesneed to develop alternative national polic* strategies that sharpl* di##erentiatethem #rom each other' %ut 3hich are credi%le in the ne3 glo%al environment4Mainstream parties have #ound themselves driven into an ever smaller and morecro3ded space in the political centre4 This loss o# polic* di##erentiation restrictsthe political choices open to voters4

More 3orr*ing than the implosion o# mem%ership o# political parties has %een thedo3n3ard trend in voter participation in %oth national and European elections4Even in the larger EU Mem%er (tates' governments tend to %e seen asincreasingl* marginal actors in the dramas generated %* the sometimes pain#uladGustment to the ne3 patterns o# emplo*ment and social 3el#are policiesreuired to survive and prosper in a glo%al econom*4 Onl* extreme Vpopulist andxenopho%ic parties %ene#it %* exploiting pu%lic unease at the apparent impotenceo# national governments and mainstream parties to respond to the challenges o#glo%alisation4

.t the European level' these pro%lems have %een rein#orced %* a sense that EUdecision8ma0ing is too remote' too esoteric' too technocratic and too elitist4 Man*citizens %elieve that the* are denied the in#ormation the* need to adeuatel*understand Jlet alone pass Gudgement onK 3hat is %eing done in their name %*their governments and %* the EU institutions4

More can %e done to improve pu%lic 0no3ledge and understanding o# ho3 the

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Union #unctions and the 0e* polic* issues it #aces4 The recent initiatives ta0en %*European Commission ice8President Margot !allstrWm to address these

pro%lems are 3elcome4 6ut to %e e##ective' an EU communications strateg*reuires Mem%er (tates to ta0e shared o3nership 3ith the EU institutionsJnota%l* the CommissionK o# the messages delivered to the pu%lic4Communications cannot simpl* %e le#t to V6russels4

Than0s to the Convention on the -uture o# Europe' a European CitizensInitiative 3as included in the Constitutional Treat*4 This gives citizens the rightto propose that the Commission introduce ne3 legislation' although it is stillunclear 3hat the minimum num%er o# Mem%er (tates in 3hich signatures need to

%e collected should %e4 It is encouraging that this has %een retained in the ne3 EURe#orm Treat*4

Improved in#ormation or a more structured s*stem o# consultation 3ith citizens F3hile indispensa%le F ma* not su##ice to close the gap %et3een the pu%lic and theEU institutions4 .dvocates o# the more radical versions o# Vdirect democrac*recognise that it is vulnera%le to the charges o# Vcorporatism and elitism4Consultative democrac* 3ill tend to appeal most to organised special8interestadvocates4 -or the mass o# people' involvement in the European governance

process 3ill onl* have meaning 3hen the* are as0ed to choose in Europeanelections %et3een parties 3ith di##erent programmes and values' led %*

personalities 3ho present themselves as aspirant leaders o# the EU executive4

The gro3th and complexit* o# EU a##airs has made democratic accounta%ilit*3ea0 to non8existent 3hen it is exercised purel* through elected Mem%er (tategovernments and scrutin* %* national parliaments4 More can %e done tostrengthen the po3ers o# national parliaments to scrutinize the %ehaviour o#governments in the Council o# Ministers4 6ut onl* a dedicated' elected EuropeanParliament can reall* %e charged 3ith holding the EUs executive institutions toaccount4 This means not onl* the Commission' %ut also the Council o# MinistersJ3hen governments legislate under Communit* la3K4

!ithout dou%t' political parties Jnational and EuropeanK 3ill need to re8invent

themselves at the national level i# the* are to survive the pro#ound changes inpolitical culture %rought a%out %* glo%alisation4 .t the EU level' genuinel*European parties 3ith their o3n identities' programmes and Jeventuall*Kmem%ership still have to %e %uilt4 O# course the* 3ill retain close lin0s 3ith theirnational a##iliates in the Mem%er (tates F in the same 3a* that man* regional

parties in Mem%er (tates do4 .t present' European Parliament elections lac0su##icient political conseuence to engage voters4 The* are Vnot a%out enough in

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terms o# the European political choices o##ered voters and' there#ore' tend to %e#ought on purel* national issues4 !hen the* act together through sharedsovereignt* to meet the challenges o# glo%alisation' EU Mem%er (tates can createne3 space #or polic* alternatives at a European level in a 3a* 3hich 3ould %eimpossi%le #or an* single state acting alone4

O# course' the realities o# glo%alisation 3ill al3a*s impose some limits on the#reedom o# action open to the Union4 6ut the %alance o# po3er 3hich 3ould exist

%et3een the glo%al mar0et and the huge potential o# the European economies i#collectivel* mo%ilised %* the Mem%er (tates 3ould %e ver* di##erent to that3hich exists %et3een the glo%al mar0et and individual countries acting alone4

In this perspective' it %ecomes possi%le to o##er voters #ar more 3ide8ranging andsigni#icant choices on issues such as Go%s' prosperit*' social Gustice andsustaina%ilit*4 Moreover' i# Mem%er (tates are #orced %* changes in the glo%alenvironment to ta0e the construction o# an EU Common -oreign and (ecurit*Polic* more seriousl*' a health* democratic de%ate a%out alternative Europeanstrategies in these areas too %ecomes possi%le4 Ta0en together' thesedevelopments 3ould impl* a cultural revolution #or European politicians4 The*have F #or good reasons F traditionall* seen consensus rather than con#lict andchoice as central to the d*namic o# European integration4

Toda* the EU has evolved to the point 3here' 3ithout democratic political choice%et3een di##ering strategies' no popular consensus is li0el* to remain intact #or

long4 On the assumption that the Re#orm Treat*' 3hich 3as agreed %* EU 9eadso# $overnment in Lis%on at the end o# +,,=' is rati#ied in all += Mem%er (tatesthe 3a* 3ill %e open #or EU parties to elect the President o# the Commission4 TheEU parties should have gone to voters alread* in the +,,; European Parliamentelections presenting serious programmatic alternatives to exploit the space #orcollective action and also presenting voters 3ith their candidates #or thePresidenc* o# the European Commission as part o# their lists4 Indeed there is noreason 3h* the* should not also ma0e pu%lic 3ho the* 3ill support #or the ne3

posts o# President o# the European Council and the enhanced 9ighRepresentative #or -oreign and (ecurit* Polic*4

This 3ould give voters the po3er to help shape the EU executive Jthe nearesteuivalent to a Mem%er (tate governmentK4 The maGor political groups in theEuropean Parliament are at last serious a%out achieving #ull part* status F adevelopment that the Constitutional Treat* 3ould have encouraged %* givingEuropean parties their o3n legal identities and %* providing #unding4 Change isalread* under 3a*4

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In a stud* o# voting patterns' (imon 9ix' Pro#essor o# European and ComparativePolitics at the London (chool o# Economics' states that Xon the positive side'and potentiall* #ar more pro#ound' is the emergence o# a genuine Vdemocratic

part* s*stem in the European Parliament4 -irst' voting in the Parliament is morealong transnational and ideological part* lines than along national lines' andincreasingl* so4& It is alread* possi%le to discern the outlines o# a developingEuropean demos F in the ever8gro3ing cross8%order activities o# %usiness' tradeunions' non8governmental organisations and other civil societ* interests as 3ellas through the still slo3l*8emerging political li#e o# the EU institutions' a%ove allthe European Parliament4

. more democratic European Union politics 3ill involve more con#lict %et3eenthe di##erent political #amilies and emerging European parties4 6ut through thiscontestation #or po3er and the political direction the Union should ta0e' the

evolution o# European democratic politics 3ill strengthen4 It 3ill also strengthenand certainl* not undermine democrac* at the national and su%8national levels4&ohn 'almer is a memer o# the (dvisory Board o# the )ederal Tr"st in *ondon

and the (dvisory Co"ncil o# the !"ropean 'olicy Centre in Br"ssels%

http:++www%e"roalter%com+,--.+gloalisation/demands/a/more/political/and/

more/democratic/e"rope+

"-# The Rise of the RestIts true China is %ooming' Russia is gro3ing moreassertive' terrorism is a threat4 6ut i# .merica is losing the a%ilit* to dictate to

this ne3 3orld' it has not lost the a%ilit* to lead4http"3334ne3s3ee04com+,,
http://www.euroalter.com/2009/globalisation-demands-a-more-political-and-more-democratic-europe/http://www.euroalter.com/2009/globalisation-demands-a-more-political-and-more-democratic-europe/http://www.newsweek.com/2008/05/03/the-rise-of-the-rest.print.htmlhttp://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1998/sen-lecture.pdfhttp://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb3book.pdfhttp://www.euroalter.com/2009/globalisation-demands-a-more-political-and-more-democratic-europe/http://www.euroalter.com/2009/globalisation-demands-a-more-political-and-more-democratic-europe/http://www.newsweek.com/2008/05/03/the-rise-of-the-rest.print.htmlhttp://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1998/sen-lecture.pdfhttp://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb3book.pdf


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Chinese havent #orgotten one o# the $reat 9elmsmans thoughts" respect *ourenem* Jthat is' an* pro%lemK strategicall*' and despise him tacticall*4The %litz0rieg8li0e implementation o# proGects is an illustration o# the latter tenet4Contrast the 3a* the giant Three $orges Dam has come up in China' 3ith the#ate o# the (ardar (arovar ProGect in $uGarat4.gitation' endless court cases' environmentalists' and other mani#estations o# ademocratic' rule8o#8la3 societ* have not onl* dela*ed implementation perhaps %*a decade' %ut also added enormousl* to the costs4.nd the direct cost escalation is perhaps onl* a small part o# the total cost to theeconom*4One can onl* imagine the output lost %ecause o# the dela*s in the starting o# the

proGect4Ta0e another instance 3here China is ahead o# us' namel*' la%our8intensivemanu#acture4

Our la%our la3s' 3hich protect existing emplo*ment' %ut at the cost o# creatingne3 Go%s' have created a %ias in #avour o# capital8intensive investments4.n .m%ani pre#ers a re#iner*' in 3hich the onl* comparative advantage comesout o# the dut* structure' to manu#acturing' sa*' to*s in %illions and exportingthem to the 3orld4China does not seem to %e treating P(Us as hol* co3s either 88 millions o# Go%s instate8o3ned enterprises have %een lost in preparation #or 3orld competition46ut ne3 ones 0eep getting created in larger num%ers4 In contrast' 3e not onl*condone over8manning' %ut also 0eep thousands emplo*ed in #actories that

havent produced an*thing #or decades42o 3onder resources are short #or the much8needed investments4 Organisedprivate industr*' a#raid o# la%our la3s' has produced #e3 ne3 ones in recent*ears4There is a positive side to our s*stem as 3ell" 3e avoided the millions o#starvation deaths that 3ere a corollar* to Maos ?$reat Leap -or3ard? inaugmenting steel output' and the social chaos o# his Cultural Revolution4Onl* an authoritarian s*stem 3ould permit such excesses4 6ut the #act remainsthat #ast gro3th in .sia has invaria%l* come under authoritarian governments4The correlation is strong' %ut as political correctness 3ill argue' correlation is not

necessaril* cause and e##ect4 .gain' is uarter o# a centur* too short a period tocompare the e##icac* o# enlightened' re#ormist' authoritarian regimes and

political democraciesHTo %e sure' there is one #ield 3here 3e have a good' i# #rightening' chance o#

%eating China 88 population4 In most other areas' it is more com#orta%le to stopma0ing comparisons4

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"# &ill India 0ass China as Best $ro4ing +conom, 6ruce Einhorn'-e%ruar* :,' +,,;Tal0 a%out a tarnished prize4 .ccording to this Economic Times stor* J the ET isa content partner o# 6usiness!ee0K' India ma* soon pass China to %ecome the#astest8gro3ing maGor econom*4 India ma* pip export8dependent China'& the ET3rites' and emerge as the #astest gro3ing nation among all large economies4& To3hich 3e should all respond" 6ig deal4 I# India does pass China' the change 3ill

%e largel* a re#lection o# ho3 seriousl* the glo%al crisis is hammering theChinese econom* F not an* sign o# Indian strength4 Indeed' consider the other ETstor* that is running along 3ith the India8China one on 6usiness!ee0s .siaChanneltoda*" $DP $ro3th in India -alls to =4:& .nd that =4: num%er ismisleading4 .s the ET reporter points out' this is almost + percentage points

%elo3 previous #iscals gro3th o# ; despite t3o rounds o# #iscal stimuluspac0ages announced %* the center4&

2ot a prett* picture4 6ut according to the ET' the Indian government has%ecome h*per8active to achieve at least a @4B gro3th in > to register a 3inover China4& !h*H 9eres the ETs explanation' presuma%l* representing thevie3 o# Indian %ureaucrats" I# India achieves a %etter gro3th rate than Chinaeven #or one uarter' the message 3ill go across to the 3orld and help India in3ooing #oreign capital' 3aiting to chase gro3th stories4& Reall*H .ll it 3ill ta0eis one uarter o# anemic gro3th in India %eating slightl*8more8anemic gro3th inChina #or investors to #orgive India all its in#rastructure pro%lemsH The

%ureaucrats in 2e3 Delhi need to get out more4

Mean3hile' %ac0 on Planet Earth' the Chinese government is planning onspending almost Q@,, %illion in stimulus spending' versus Gust a #e3 %illion inIndia4 .nd investors in (hanghai have pushed up shares +> so #ar this *ear'compared to a #lat mar0et in Mum%ai4 China certainl* has a ton o# trou%le aheadas it tries to re%uild its econom*' %ut no3 is certainl* not the time #or an*%od* inIndia to start cele%rating4

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seems to %e pla*ing second #iddle4 Pundits around the 3orld laud Chinasleadership #or its 3ell8devised economic policies during the crisis' 3hich 3ere soe##ective in restarting economic gro3th that the* helped li#t the entire .sianregion out o# the do3nturn4 JRead ?.mid Recover*' Chinas Propert* Mar0et(oars4?K

2o3' ho3ever' India ma* #inall* have one up on its high8octane rival4 ThoughIndia still cant compete on top8line economic gro3th Z the !orld 6an0 proGectsIndias gross domestic product J$DPK 3ill increase @4> in +,,;' #ar short o# the trillion Frepresenting almost 7, o# $DP4 The stimulus plan 3or0ed 3onders' holding up

gro3th even as Chinas exports dropped :@ in +,,;46ut no3 China is #acing the conseuences o# its largesse4 -ears are rising that6eiGings eas*8mone* policies have #ueled a potential propert*8price %u%%le4.ccording to government data' average real estate prices in Chinese cities

Gumped =4,, %illion' or roughl*


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reduce ne3 lending4 JRead ?-oreign Luxur* Cars" Pic0ing Up (peed in India4?KIndia' mean3hile' isnt experiencing nearl* the same degree o# #allout #rom itsrecession8#ighting methods4 The government used the same tools as ever* otherto support gro3th 3hen the #inancial crisis hit F cutting interest rates' o##ering tax

%rea0s and increasing #iscal spending F %ut the scale 3as smaller than in China4$oldman (achs estimates that Indias government stimulus 3ill total Q7@ %illionthis #iscal *ear' or onl* 7 o# $DP4 6* comparison' Chinas t3o8*ear' QB #or India in +,,


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%?# 1+C@ peace and happiness indexhttp"3334oecd4orgpages,'7>:='enS>,,77>+@S>,,77


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over the *ears also pic0s up the happiness e##ect o# ageing 8 3hich 3e might#alsel* attri%ute to marriage4(o *ou have to #ind out' are 7,8somethings happier than +,8somethings and' i# so'can 3e strip that e##ect out o# the marriage e##ect that ma* have happened at thesame timeH (till 3ith meH .nd so on' #or ever*thing *ou can thin0 o# that mightmess up *our measurement o# the e##ect o# one thing on 3ell8%eing' rather thananother4(o even the eas* 3a* is not al3a*s eas*4 -or an interesting attempt to measurecause and e##ect tr* Mappiness' a proGect run %* the London (chool o#Economics' 3hich o##ers a phone app that prompts *ou to record *our mood andsituation49app* classesThe Mappiness 3e%site sa*s" ?!ere particularl* interested in ho3 peopleshappiness is a##ected %* their local environment 8 air pollution' noise' green

spaces' and so on 8 3hich the data #rom Mappiness 3ill %e a%solutel* great #orinvestigating4?!ill it 3or0H !ith enough people' it might4 6ut there are other pro%lems4 !eve

%een using happiness and 3ell8%eing interchangea%l*4 Is that o0H The di##erencecomes out in a sentiment li0e" ?!e 3ere happiest during the 3ar4? 6ut 3as our3ell8%eing also greatest thenH.nd 3hats the polic* responseH That 3hat 3e need is a 3arH .nd then *ouremem%er" 3eve got one 8 and its not ma0ing us happ*4 Ma*%e thats %ecause to

%e reall* happ* it has to %e a 3ar o# national survival4 Ma*%e 3hat 3e need to %e

reall* happ*' in other 3ords' is #or our circumstances to %e reall* misera%le46ut ma*%e this 3ar is improving our 3ell8%eing %* protecting us #rom terrorH (ovalues and political Gudgements a%out 3hat constitutes 3ell8%eing soon mudd*the 3aters' and these ma* %e di##erent #rom 3hat ma0es us happ*4!hats more' *our 3ell8%eing ma* not %e improved %* the same things as mine4The #act that *ou li0e to get stoned isnt going to see canna%is in Tesco4ContentiousOur leaders have to 3eigh up the pros and antis on each side o# an* #actor in @,m

peoples 3ell8%eing4 Ma*%e m* environmental 3ell8%eing 8 a categor* o#tendiscussed 8 is served %* rene3a%le energ*' *ours %* hillsides #ree #rom 3ind8

tur%ines4It all %egins to sound less li0e measurement than politics4 That might mean 3eare restricted to counting good or %ad things a%out 3hich #e3 disagree' li0e in#antmortalit*4.nother di##icult* is that some things that ma0e a %ig di##erence are hard tomeasure' li0e health8gain #rom an operation' and hard to add to other good things'li0e clean air' to produce a national total4 Or do *ou have masses o# di##erent'

7:
http://www.mappiness.org.uk/http://www.mappiness.org.uk/


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incommensurate indicatorsHThe OECDhas %een ta0ing a serious loo0 at this #or several *ears4 The )oung-oundationhas also given it thought4(ome o# the social indicators the OECD has considered include average *ears o#schooling' gender 3age gaps' participation in voluntar* groups and suicide rates46ut decide #or *oursel# 3hat 3e should count to3ards 3ell8%eing4In #act' 3e measure all this alread*' through the O##ice #or 2ational (tatisticsJO2(K and others4 olunteering is a great one 8 so good #or us' Evan Davis once

Go0ed' that it ought to %e made compulsor*4 Ma*%e thats 3hat the 6ig (ociet* isa%out4Other research has suggested that 3hat people sa* improves their 3ell8%eing 8li0e having children 8 is at odds 3ith 3hat the* report a%out their happiness in themoment" ?Oh no' not the school holida*s]?Emotional resilience

.nd even i# 3e could agree 3hat 3as good #or 3ell8%eing' that doesnt tell usho3 %est to achieve it4 That loneliness and isolation are o#ten %ad #or us mightmean that the state should do more 8 or less' i# 3e thin0 peoples relationshipsthrive 3hen the state gets out o# their 3a* and reminds #amilies o# their o3nresponsi%ilities4(o is 3ell8%eing too 3ooll*' too contentious' too value8laden to %e use#ulH I# so'should 3e give upH9eres an argument #or giving it some thought" even i# 3e cant agree 3here theresponsi%ilit* lies #or addressing isolation' sa*' at least 3e might rethin0 the

3eight 3e attach to it among other priorities4 )es' a polic* might help economicgro3th' %ut have 3e properl* considered the so#ter costs and %ene#itsHOn the practical side' there is evidence that children can %e taught emotionalresilience 8 lessons derided %* some as ?happ* classes? 8 %ut this does indeedimprove their su%Gective sense o# 3ell8%eing4The simple exercise o# introducing #eelings to the national accounts' or thin0ingo# them as a legitimate o%Gective o# polic*' or o# stretching the measure o#national progress to include things that are not easil* monetized' is horri%l*di##icult' %ut might %e a 3a* o# reminding ourselves o# 3hat 3e most care a%out4

%%# +conomia cri;elor# Curs>fulger despre !iitorul finanDelor

#ragmente din 2ouriel Rou%ini preluat dinCritic.tac'B noiem%rie +,:,2ouriel Rou%ini este pro#esor de economie la (tern (chool o# 6usiness J2e3)or0 Universit*K ^i pre^edinte al #irmei de consultan_` economic` R$E Monitor4Imediat dup` o%_inerea doctoratului n Economie interna_ional` J:;


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6ureau o# Economic Research î n echipa de consultan_i a -MI4Rou%ini este printre pu_inii economi^ti care au prezis criza din +,,K î PoliticalC*cles and the Macroeconom* J:;;=K4(tephen Mihm scrie despre economie î istorie pentru The 2e3 )or0 TimesMagazine' The 6oston $lo%e î alte pu%lica_ii4 . primit mai multe %urse pentrucercetare' printre care î o %urs` postdoctoral` de cercetare a Istoriei a#acerilor' la

9arvard 6usiness (chool4Este pro#esor asociat la Universit* o# $eorgia' unde pred` cursuri de istorie

politic`' cultural` î economic` american`4 Este autorul c`r_ilor . 2ation o#Counter#eiters" Capitalists' Con Men' and the Ma0ing o# the United (tates J+,,=Kî .rti#icial Parts and Practical Lives" Modern 9istories o# Prosthetics J+,,+K4

PER(PECTIE Jultimul capitol din cartea Economia crizelor4 Curs8#ulger despreviitorul #inan_elorKn timpul crizei #inanciare glo%ale din +,,=F+,,


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nu s-a mai v`zut din anii :;=,4Pot ap`rea î alte necazuri4 O permisivitate extrem` a politicilor monetare î arelax`rii cantitative F n com%ina_ie cu apetitul crescnd al investitorilor pentruopera_iuni carr* trade pe dolar F poate stimula un %alon speculativ nc` î mai

mare dect cel care tocmai s-

a spart4 Dac` e s` se dezum#le %rusc' valoareaactivelor riscante î a avu_iei glo%ale va sc`dea puternic' existnd pericolul uneirecesiuni glo%ale cu minime du%le4.r putea avea loc î alte evenimente' tot att de nspìmnt`toare4 UniuneaMonetar` European` s-ar putea rupe4 (au 1aponia s-ar putea ntoarce iar lade#la_ie î cvasirecesiune' declan^nd o criz` maGor` a datoriei na_ionale4 Pn` îChina se con#runt` cu riscuri tot mai mari" redresarea ei %azat` pe investi_ii î-ar

putea pierde su#lul' eventual declan^nd o cre^tere a creditelor neper#ormante î'n cele din urm`' o criz` %ancar`4 Toate aceste scenarii ar putea duce la oin#lamare a sentimentelor antiglo%alizare4Multe depind de #elul n care î revine F sau se clatin` F economia glo%al` nurm`torii c_iva ani4 Iat`' aâdar' n continuare' o scurt` privire de ansam%luasupra pericolelor pe termen apropiat cu care ne con#runt`m4 JPentru o analiz`mult' mult mai detaliat`' cititorii sunt ruga_i s` viziteze site-ul Rou%ini $lo%alEconomics de la adresa 3334rou%ini4com4K'Usau!HParcursul redres`rii se poate reprezenta n #orme di#erite' care re#lect` gradulrelativ de vigoare î de sustena%ilitate ale procesului4 O redresare n #orm` de este iute î viguroasÀ

o redresare n #orm` de U este lent` î decep_ionantÀ iar una n #orm` de ! esteo redresare du%lu minimal`' n care economia trece printr-o remisiune trec`toare'doar ca s` plonGeze iar spre zero4 Cel mai pro%a%il scenariu la ora actual` este orevenire n #orm` U pentru economiile avansate' avnd n prim-plan o cre^terede%il`' su% cur%a de tendin_`' pentru un num`r de ani4 Iat` de ce4n primul rnd' condi_iile de pe pia_a muncii r`mn n continuare proaste4 n+,:,' rata ômaGului din (tatele Unite a atins :, la sut`4 JUn indicator ceva maicuprinz`tor' care i ia n calcul î pe lucr`torii cu angaGare par_ial` î pe ceidescuraGa_i' a dep`ît := la sut`4K Multe sluG%e din domeniul imo%iliar' din cel al

construc_iilor î din sectorul #inanciar au disp`rut pentru totdeauna4 La #el' multelocuri de munc` din produc_ie î din servicii' care au #ost externalizate n a#aragrani_elor _`rii' nu se vor mai ntoarce acas` niciodat`4Pn` î lucr`torii care î-au p`strat sluG%ele au avut parte de sc`derea veniturilor4Multe #irme' n numele solidarit`_ii î la rù' nu numai la %ine' le-au cerutangaGa_ilor lor s` munceasc` ore mai pu_ine' s` plece n concediu sau chiar sàccepte reduceri de salariu4 (c`derea num`rului de ore lucrate a echivalat cu

7>


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pierderea altor 7 milioane de posturi cu norm` ntreag`' peste cele la sut` la s#rîtul anului +,,;' studiile ntreprinse de -MI îde al_i cercet`tori serioî sugereaz` c` aceast` rat` tre%uie s` creasc` la cel pu_in +' martie +,,=' online lahttp"3334princeton4educeps3or0ingpapers:>+%linder4pd#4

B=


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+ Evan Tanner ^i )asser .%dih' Re%uilding U4(4 !ealth' -inance andDevelopment >@' no4 > Jdecem%rie +,,;K' pp4 +7F7B' online la http"3334im#4orgexternalpu%s#t#andd+,,;:+tanner4htm47 ezi de exemplu http"3334visualeconomics4comgdp8vs8national8de%t8%*8countr*4> Rou%ini ^i (etser' 6ailouts or 6ail8InsH' pp4 +=:F=B4B ezi de exemplu Organisation #or Economic Co8Operation and Development'Economic (urve* o# 1apan +,,;' 7, septem%rie +,,;' online lahttp"3334oecd4orgdocument7=,'77>7'enS+@>;S7>B;B S>7=

Leadership Pentru Secolul XXI

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