Creativitatea -cap.3 Prognoza Tehnologică

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    3

    Prognoza = HYDOXDUHD SUREDELO VWDELOLW vQ PRG WLLQ LILF D HYROX LHL FDOLWDWLYH L

    cantitative a unui domeniu ntr-un interval de timp (numit orizontul prognozei L VWDELOLUHD

    HYROX LLORULVW ULORUSRVLELOHDOHGRPHQLXOXLSUHFXPLSUREDELOLW LOHDVRFLDWHORUFXVFRSXOGHD

    IDFH ID vQ PRG LQWHOLJHQW L HILFLHQW VFKLPE ULORU H[LVWHQWHL D FHORU SUHYL]LELOH GH D SHUPLWH

    DSUHFLHUHDFRQVHFLQ HORUGHYLLWRUDOHGHFL]LLORUOXDWHDFXP

    SURJQR] WHKQRORJLF FHDFDUHVHRFXS GHHYROX LDWHKQRORJLLORULDSURGXVHORULGHIDSWFHDFDUHQHYDLQWHUHVDSHQRLLGHFDUHQHYRPRFXSDvQFHOHFHXUPHD]

    SURJQR] HFRQRPLF ; SURJQR] VRFLDO

    $XGLVS UXWFXWRWXO rigla de calcul tablele de logaritmi motorul de avion cu elice a fost practic total nlocuit n transportul aviatic civil de cel cu

    UHDF LH

    tuburile electronice cu vid ceasurile cu arc OHPQXOGLQUDFKHWHOHGHWHQLVGLQVFKLXULGLQSU MLQDGHODDWOHWLVP

    8OWLPDYHQLW FDUHDUSXWHDLHDvQFk LYDDQLV UHYROX LRQH]HXQDVDXFKLDUGRX UDPXUL

    LQGXVWULDOHHVWHEXWHOLDVWLFODGH3(7FDUHRvQORFXLHWHSHFHDGHVWLFO ODS VWUDUHDE XWXULORU

    ILLQGFRQVLGHUDELOPDLXRDU LPDLUH]LVWHQW ODRFXUL

    Caracteristicile prognozelor:

    Orizontul de timp; Gradul de detaliere; 1DWXUDGHFL]LHLFHWUHEXLHOXDW SHED]DVWXGLXOXL 6WDELOLWDWHDVLVWHPXOXLOHJHDGHHYROX LHDVLVWHPXOXLWLSXOGHPRGHO CostulLPSOLFDWGHDFWLYLWDWHDGHSURJQR] costul de punere a punct a metodei; FRVWXULOHGHDFWXDOL]DUHDPHWRGHLLDGDWHORU ; FRVWXULOHGHUHDOL]DUHSURSULX]LV DSURJQR]HL costurile de comparare a rezultatelor cu cele ale altor metode. Precizia 8XULQ DGHDSOLFDUH

    &HD PDLLPSRUWDQW FODVLILFDUH DWHKQLFLORUGHSURJQR] HVWH FHD FDUHOHvPSDUWH vQWHKQLFL

    cantitativeLcalitative.

    352*12=$7(+12/2*,&

    3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune3.2. Metode calitative de previziune3.3. 6FHQDULLOHFDPHWRG GHSURJQR]

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    3.1. Metode cantitative de previziune

    3HQWUXDUHDOL]DRSURJQR] FDQWLWDWLY WUHEXLHV GLVSXQHPGHXQQXP UGHYDORULP VXUDWH

    FXOHVHODPRPHQWHGLIHULWHGLQWUHFXW2E LQHPDVWIHOLUXO;W3HED]DYDORULORU;LFXLGHODOD

    t (t fiind momentul prezent) putem calcula valorile estimate pentru perioada (sau, uneori,

    SHULRDGHOH XUP WRDUH 6W 6WQ 3UH]HQW P vQ ILJ - VFKHPD GH FRUHVSRQGHQ D

    variabilelor.

    V a l RULP VXUDWH9DORULSURJQR]DWH

    Valorile X(1) X(2) X(3) ..... X(t-1) X(t) S(t+1) S(t+2) S(t+3)

    Perioada 1 2 3 ..... t-1 t t+1 t+2 t+3

    momentul actual

    Fig. 3.1. -9DORULOHP VXUDWHYDORULOHSURJQR]DWHLWLPSXO

    S(t+1) = F [ x(1), x(2), ....., x(t)]

    (URDUHDFDOFXODW FkQGHYHQLPHQWXOV-a produs) : e(t+1) = S(t+1) - x (t+1)

    3.1.1. Tehnicile de regresie.

    0HWRGDFHORUPDLPLFLS WUDWH

    y = f(t) astfel nct: [y(t) - x(t)]2 = minim

    Pentru dreapta: y = a + b t

    a = [( X) - b ( t)] / nb = [n ( X.t ) - ( X)( t) ] / [n ( t2 ) - ( t)2 ]

    Pentru plinomiala: y = a + b t + c t2 + d t3 + .....

    FRHILFLHQ LLDEFGVHFDOFXOHD] FXDMXWRUXOXQRUUHOD LLVLPLODUHFHORUGHPDLVXV

    3HQWUXDOWHIXQF LLVHIDFHRlinearizare. Exemple:

    y = a ebt (logaritmare) ln y = ln a + b t similar cu y' = a' + bt ;

    y = a + b / x (x' = 1 / x) y = a + b x'

    $OHJHUHDIXQF LHLRSWLPH

    Criteriul lui Gauss. ,QGLFHOHGHFRQFRUGDQ vQWUHPXO LPHDSXQFWHORU;WLQWURGXVHLDpunctelor Y(t) calculate cu

    IXQF LDDOHDV

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    0HWRGHGHSURJQR] SULQILOWUDMDGDSWLY

    Metoda mediilor mobile:

    S(t+1) = [X(t) + X(t-1) + ...... + X(t -n +1)] / n

    0HWRGDQHWH]LULLH[SRQHQ LDOH

    S(t+1) = x(t) + (1-) x(t-1) + (1-)2 x(t-2) + (1-)3 x(t-3) + ...... [ 0

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    3.2.1. Metoda curbelor logistice

    Fig.3.2.-(YROX LDXQHLWHKQRORJLLGXSDRFXUE ORJLVWLF

    y = p / (1 +a e-bx) unde: p = plafonul; a,b = parametrii.

    'HPRQVWUD LH3HQWUXSHULRDGDLQL LDO VHSRDWHDGPLWHF FUHWHUHDYDILSURSRU LRQDO FX

    nivelul atins, deci:dy / dt = k.y(t)

    9DORDUHDOXLNYDULD] SHP VXU FHQHDSURSLHPGHSILHEN- y(t) / p)

    dy / dt = k ( 1 - y / p) y

    ceea ce prin separarea variabileloULLQWHJUDUHQHG \WS>S\- 1) e-bx ]

    DGLF H[DFWHFXD LDORJLVWLFLLFXDS\R-XQGH\RHVWHYDORDUHDLQL LDO DOXL\

    Tab. 2.2.-1 Caracteristicile economice ale diferitelor tipuri de procese tehnologice

    Tehnologii emergente evolutive mature n declin

    &XPS -

    U WRUL

    cu venituri mari WRWPDLPXO L FRQVXPGHPDV U PkQFHLILGHOL

    Produs FDOLWDWHPHGLRFU

    OLSV VWDQGDUGH

    PRGLILF ULIUHFYHQWH

    GLIHUHQ LHULPDUL

    GXS ILUP

    ILDELOLWDWHEXQ

    FDOLWDWHIRDUWHEXQ

    norme respectate de

    WR L

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    noilor produse

    DS UXWH

    Riscuri

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    nalte minime, acoperite

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    mici certitudinea

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    curnd.

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    UHQ

    cteva firme multe firme, dar

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    DFHUE SULQSUH XUL vQVF GHUH

    )DEULFD LH serii scurte, costuri

    mari

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    serii mari

    RSWLPL]DW FRVWXUL

    minime

    supra-capacitate

    Vnzare UHFODP IVXV LQXW vQFUHWHUH

    PDUFDW

    segmen-WDUHSLD UHGXFHUHSLD

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    Fig. 3.2. - (YROX LD vQ WLPS D

    familiilor posednd produse din

    domeniul electro - PHQDMHUvQ )UDQ D

    1985.

    PDLQLGHVS ODWUXIH

    PDLQLGHVS ODWYDVH

    Fig. 3.2. -6LWXDUHDSHORJLVWLF DFXSWRDUHORU

    FXPLFURXQGHvQGLYHUVH ULvQDQXO

    Fig..3.2. - (YROX LD GLIHULWHORU

    PDVH SODVWLFH SULQ SULVPD VLWX ULL ORU SH

    ORJLVWLF vQ

    Fig.3.2.-6XFFHVLXQHDXQRUWHKQRORJLLvQGRX YDULDQWH$%GH

    HYROX LHDGRPHQLXOXLWHKQRORJLF

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    Fig. 3.2.-6 Efectele

    economice ale unei

    noi tehnologii

    6SD LXOWUDQVIHUXULORUGHWHKQRORJLH

    3URJQR]DH[SORUDWLY

    Nivelul tehnologic:

    Treapta 1: 5HVXUVHWLLQ LILFH.Treapta 2: Resurse tehnologice.

    Treapta 3: Tehnologii elementare.

    Treapta 4: Sisteme tehnologice.

    NivelulFRQVHFLQ HORU:

    Treapta 5: Aplicatii.

    Treapta 6: Mediul ambiant.

    Treapta 7: Sistem social

    Treapta 8: Societatea.

    3URJQR]DQRUPDWLY

    0HWRGDDUERULORUGHSHUWLQHQ

    PrognozD QRUPDWLY VH WUDQVSXQH vQSUDFWLF GH UHJXO SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQHL PHWRGH FDUH

    SRDUW QXPHOHGHPHWRGDDUERULORUGHSHUWLQHQ 0HWRGD DUERULORU GH SHUWLQHQ LQWURGXFH HOHPHQWH GH WHRULD JUDIXULORU GHVFRPSXQkQG

    sistemul n mai multe nivele n cadrulF URUDWRDWHSUREOHPHOHDXHJDO LPSRUWDQ

    12345678 :

    prognozprognoz

    explorativnormativ

    alte ramuriindustriale

    alte firmealte ri

    Prognoza normativ

    8. Obiective globale7. Obiective naionale

    6. Misiuni

    5. Sarcini de ndeplinit

    4. Uzine noi

    3. Tehnologii noi2. Cereri de brevete

    1. Contracte de cercetare

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    'XS FH DUERUHOH D IRVW FRQVWUXLW SDVXOXUP WRU vL SURSXQH V VWDELOHDVF RUGLQHD GH

    UH]ROYDUH DSUREOHPHORUFULWHULXO RS LXQLLILLQGP VXUDSHUWLQHQ HLQRGXULORU, anume aportul pecare rezolvarea nodului l aduce la rezolvarea unui obiectiv de la nivelul imediat superior.

    ([HPSOX F GRULP V UH]ROY P SUREOHPD PRWRUXOXL SHQWUX XQ DYLRQ GH WUDQVSRUW ORQJ-

    courier Problemele pe care le ntlnim la nivelul imediat inferior sunt turbina, compresorul,

    giroscRSXOLVLVWHPXOGHFLUFXOD LHDJD]HORU

    Tab.3.2. -&DOFXOXOSHUWLQHQ HLSUREOHPHORUGHUH]ROYDWGHODQLYHOXOi + 1.

    Criteriul :

    putere PDV manevrabilitate cost SHUWLQHQ

    Pondere : 0,4 0,3 0,1 0,2

    7XUELQ 0,25 0,4 0 0,2 0,26Compresor 0,25 0,4 0 0,3 0,28

    Giroscop 0 0 0,8 0,25 0,13

    &LUFXOD LHgaze

    0,5 0,2 0,2 0,25 0,33

    0HWRGDFXUEHORUGHVXEVWLWX LHLGHSURJUHVWHKQLF&XUEHGHVXEVWLWX LH

    Fig. 3.2. -9DULD LDFRVWXULORUGHIDEULFD LHSHQWUXIHUHVWUHOHFXWkPSO ULHGLQOHPQLGLQ39&

    (2) [curbaa]UHVSHFWLYSHQWUXF ]LOHGHEDLHGLQIRQW LGLQSODVWLFHFRPSR]LWH[curbab]

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    fig. 3.2 - 8. Ponderea maselor plastice n structura

    unei aeronave.

    (1) Helicoptere militare;

    DYLRDQHGHYkQ WRDUH

    (3) avioane civile.

    &XUEHOH L "indicatori de avanstehnologic".

    3.2.5. Metoda Delphi

    &RQVWLWXLUHDXQXLJUXSGHH[SHU L(circa 100 ).2. Elaborarea unui chestionar.

    $QDOL]DU VSXQVXULORU6HDOF WXLHWHXQDOGRLOHDFKHVWLRQDUFXDFHOHDLvQWUHE ULSUHFL]kQGWRWRGDW care esteYDORDUHDPHGLHDSURJQR]HLUH]XOWDW GLQSULPXOFKHVWLRQDULFDUHHVWHLQWHUYDOXOLQWHUTXDUWLOvQFDUH

    VHVLWXHD] GLQU VSXQVXUL

    Fig. 3.2. -9DULD LDLQWHUYDOXOXLLQWHUTXDUWLOSHP VXU FHvQDLQWHD] DQFKHWD'HOSKL>JUDILFXOa@L

    JUDILFDQRUPDODOXQXLU VSXQVODRDQFKHW 'HOSKL>JUDILFXOb].

    ([SOLFD LLSHQWUXb:

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    LQWHUHVDQWGHGHWDOLDWSRDWHDSDUHYUHRLGHHQRX EXQ GHH[SORDWDW

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    GRXDOLVW FXSURGXVHOHFHDUSXWHDILRE LQXWHvQXUPDUXSWXULLWHKQRORJLFHFHUkQGSHQWUXILHFDUHGLQ

    ele:

    LQGLFHOHGHGHVLUDELOLWDWHFkWDUILGHXWLOLFHIRORV ar aduce firmei) LQGLFHOHGHIH]DELOLWDWHFkWGHXRUL -DUILILUPHLV vOUHDOL]H]H RSUHYL]LXQHDWLPSXOXLSkQ ODUHDOL]DUHDUXSWXULLWHKQRORJLFHFXSUHFL]DUHDSUREDELOLW LORU

    GHL

    'LQFRORGH RGHWDOLHUHPDLILQ PHWRGD6221FRQGXFH ODXQ IHOGHDUERUHGHSHUWLQHQ

    VWUXFWXUDWLQRWDWGHF WUHH[SHU L

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    ULWPXO GH VFKLPEDUH HVWH GHRVHELW GH UDSLG vQ VSHFLDO vQ GRPHQLXOSROLWLF FDUHGHWHUPLQ GLUHFWVDXLQGLUHFWVFKLPE ULH[WUHPGHUDSLGHvQIDFWRULLGHWLSHFRQRPLFFXHIHFWHDVXSUD

    tehnologicului);

    UXSWXULOHGHULWPVXQWLHOHGHRVHELWGe rapide; factorii demografici, socio-FXOWXUDOLSROLWLFLOHHQHUJHWLFHFXQRVFGLQFRQWU XQJUDGPDUHGH

    LQHU LHFHHDFHFUHD] QXPHURDVHWHQVLXQL

    Fig. 3.3. - 1. Utilizarea scenariilor pentru stabilirea politicii firmei.

    &RQVWUXF LDXQXLVFHQDULX

    Fig. 3.3. - 2. Principalele etape ale construirii unui scenariu.

    &RQVWUXF LDED]HL

    &RQGL LL

    V ILHGHWDOLDW LDSURIXQGDW SHSODQFDOLWDWLYLFDQWLWDWLY V ILHJOREDO OXkQGvQ FRQVLGHUD LHIDFWRULLWehnologici, economici, politici, sociologici, de

    SURWHF LHDPHGLXOXL

    V ILHGLQDPLF OXkQGvQFRQVLGHUD LHDWkWIDFWRULLGLQWUHFXWFDUHDXFRQGXVODVLWXD LDGHD]LFkWLHOHPHQWHOHFDUHYRUDYHDRLQIOXHQ QRWDELO GHDFXPvQFROR

    V ILH explicativ V SUH]LQWH vQ PRGOLPSHGHFXDUJXPHQWHMXVWLILFDWLYH WRDWH DILUPD LLOHI FXWH&RQVWUXF LDED]HLFRPSRUW ODUkQGXOHLPDLPXO LSDLDQXPHGHOLPLWDUHDVLVWHPXOXL

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    Delimitarea sistemului LPSOLF PDL vQWkL VWDELOLUHD OLPLWHORU VLVWHPXOXL GH VWXGLDW

    Determinarea variabilelor. WUHEXLHI FXW ROLVW FRPSOHW DYDULDELOHORUFDUHWUHEXLHV FRQ LQ

    variabilele interne, cele care caraFWHUL]HD] GRPHQLXOQRVWUX YDULDELOHOH H[WHUQH FHOH FH DSDU LQ HQYLURQPHQWXOXL H[SOLFDWLY L FDUH SRW LQIOXHQ D

    comportarea domeniului interesant pentru noi;

    GHWHUPLQDQ LL YDULDELOHOH DWkW LQWHUQH FkW L H[WHUQH FX FHD PDL PDUH LQIOXHQ DVXSUDevolX LHLSUH]HQWHLYLLWRDUH

    1. CONSTRUIREA BAZEI

    2. ELABORARE SCENARIU

    3. ELABORARE PROGNOZE

    4. DEFINIRE STRATEGII

    5. ALEG(5(175(23 ,81,675$7(*,&(

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    VHPQDOHOHVODEHDFHOHYDULDELOHFDUHVHPDQLIHVW H[WUHPGHGLVFUHWSHPRPHQWGDUFDUHYRUDYHDRHYROX LHSXWHUQLF GHYHQLQGODXQPRPHQWGDWGHWHUPLQDQ L

    YDULDELOHOHGHULYDWHFHOHFHHYROXHD] FDXUPDUHDDF LXQLLGHWHUPLQDQ LORU2DOW FODVLILFDUHPDLDSURSLDW GHWHRULDVLVWHPHORUGLVWLQJHYDULDELOH

    explicative ( variabile independente comandabile), de releu (intermediare), autonome (independente necomandabile), UH]XOWDQWHGHLHLUH

    /LVWD YDULDELOHORU VH IDFH DSHOkQG OD FRQVXOWDUHD VSHFLDOLWLORU EUDLQVWRUPLQJ VDX OLVWH GH

    vQWUHE UL FKHFN-list),. Pornind de la trecut spre prezent (retrospectiva) se pot separa elementele

    aleatorii de moment (ale prezentului) de tHQGLQ DJHQHUDO LQYDULDQ LLGHWHUPLQDQ L'HDVHPHQHD

    se pot identifica germenii de schimbare, semnalele slabe.

    Strategia actorilor. 7UHEXLH LQXWVHDPDGHIDSWXOF GLIHUL LLDFWRULQXDXLQWHUHVHLGHQWLFHL

    nici strategii convergente.Deci vor treEXLVWDELOLWHVWUDWHJLLOHDFHVWRUDUDSRUWXULOHGHIRU HGLQWUHHL

    LHYHQWXDOHOHPHQWHOHFDUHSRWGHWHUPLQDHYROX LDvQYLLWRUDUDSRUWXULORUGHIRU H9RUUH]XOWDDVWIHO

    VHQVXOLW ULDIRU HORUUH]XOWDQWHFHOHFDUHGHWHUPLQ vQIRQGHYROX LDVLVWHPXOXL.

    &RQVWUXF LDVFHQDULXOXLPentru n ipoteze vor rezulta 2n scenarii posibile !

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    matrice):

    p (i / j) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF VHFRQILUP LSRWH]Dj;

    p (i /j ) = probabilitatea ca ipoteza i V VHFRQILUPHGDF LSRWH]Dj QXVHFRQILXUP

    4. 1RUPDOL] PGDWHOHDVWIHOvQFkW0 p(i) 1p(i/j) . p(i) = p(j/i). p(j) = p(i,j)

    DWHQ LHSLMSLSMGHRDUHFHSLLSMQXVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWHvQWUHHOH p(i/j).P(j) + p(i/j ).p(j ) = p(i)

    5. 3ULQLWHUD LLVXFFHVLYHVHUHFDOFXOHD] SLSLMLSLj ), folosind fie metoda Monte CarloILHPHWRGDODQ XULORU0DUNRY

    6. &DOFXODUHDSUREDELOLW LORUGHUHDOL]DUHDVFHQDULLORU36P(Sj) = p(i)

    7. 6HHOLPLQ YDULDQWHOHDEVXUGH.8. 6HUHFDOXOHD] SHQWUXFHOHS VWUDWHYDORUL P(Sj) = k.P(Sj)

    XQGHNVHFDOFXOHD] DVWIHOvQFkW P(Sj) = 1,

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    Descompunerea sistemului n subsisteme independente la momentul m

    (YROX LDILHF UXLVXEVLVWHPWHQGLQ HVWUDWHJLLLQYDULDQ LDPG.

    5HFRPSXQHUHDVLVWHPXOXLHYLGHQ LHUHFRQIOLFWHWHQGLQ HQRL

    FRQVHFLQ HHYROX LHUXSWXUL

    Fig. 3.3. -(YROX LDVXEVLVWHPHORUvQWUHPRPHQWHOHPLP

    0RGXOvQFDUH6+(//LDGHFL]LLSHVHDPDVFHQDULLORUSRDWHILLOXVWUDWvQVFKHPDXUP WRDUH

    Incertitudini RISC intuitiv Obiective pe termen lung

    SCENARII STRATEGII

    variabile cheie Criterii

    beneficiu sperat Beneficii cerute IXUHW EHQHILFLL RISC cuantificat Beneficii posibile

    GHFL]LHVWUDWHJLF

    6FHQDULXSULYLQGHYROX LDXQXLDHURSRUWFLYLO

    Ne intereseD] HYROX LDXQXLDHURSRUWFLYLOGDWSHXQLQWHUYDOGHWLPSGDW,SRWH]HOHGHOXFUX

    vor fi:

    1. 1XP UXOGHWXULWLFHIRORVHVFDHURSRUWXOODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSGDWYDILGHPLQLPXP17 2.

    1XP UXOPHGLXGHORFXULDODYLRDQHORUGHSDVDJHULYDILGHPLQLPXP&33. DatoULW DJORPHUD LHLDYLRDQHOHYRUGHFRODLDWHUL]DFXRvQWkU]LHUHPHGLHPDLPDUHGH01PLQXWH

    4. 3UH XOXQXLELOHWGHDYLRQYDVF GHDFXFHOSX LQ65. 3kQ ODRUL]RQWXOGHWLPSVWXGLDWYHQLWXOSRSXOD LHYDFUHWHvQPHGLHFX9SHDQ6. ([WLQGHUHDRUDXOXLspre aeroport va impune o anulare a zborurilor de noapte cu un procent de

    RZ %

    (unde evident NT, CP, MN, S,V,RZ primesc valori numerice concrete)

    6 SUHVXSXQHP GH DVHPHQHD F LQL LDO FHORU LSRWH]H OL V-DX DWULEXLW SUREDELOLW LOH SS

    egale resSHFWLYFXLDUSUREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHVXQWFHOHGLQ

    tab. 3.3. - 1.

    Tab. 3.3.-3UREDELOLW LOHFRQGL LRQDWHLQL LDOHSLMSLj )

    1 2 3 4 5 6

    1 0,5 / 0,3 0,7 / 0,4 0,8 / 0,1 0,6 / 0,1 0,4 / 0,5

    2 0,8 / 0,3 0,5 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,6 0,7 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,6

    3 0,7 / 0,6 0,4 / 0,7 0,7 / 0,6 0,7 / 0,6 0.8 / 0,4

    4 0,8 / 0,1 0,6 / 0,3 0,4 / 0,4 0,4 / 0,1 0,1 / 0,7

    5 0,7 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6 0,8 / 0,6 0,6 / 0,6

    6 0,5 / 0,8 0,8 / 0,5 0,5 / 0,7 0,7 / 0,7 0,9 / 0,7

    ,QXUPDSUHOXFU ULLSULQPHWRGD0RQWH&DUORUH]XOW PDWULFHDGLQWDE- 2.

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    Tab. 3.3. -3UREDELOLW LOHSUHOXFUDWHSULQDSOLFDUHDPHWRGHL0RQWH&DUOR

    p(i / j) / p (i / j )p(i)

    1 2 3 4 5 6

    1 0,55 / 0,14 0,50 / 0,29 0,83 / 0,13 0,50 / 0,25 0,35 / 0,57 0,41

    2 0,89 / 0,51 0,57 / 0,83 0,85 / 0,55 0,66 / 0,69 0,77 / 0,42 0,67

    3 0,72 / 0,52 0,51 / 0,79 0,63 / 0,58 0,60 / 0,60 0,63 / 0,54 0,60

    4 0,81 / 0,11 0,51 / 0,18 0,42 / 0,38 0,47 / 0,28 0,31 / 0,62 0,40

    5 0,78 / 0,54 0,63 / 0,67 0,64 / 0,64 0,75 / 0,57 0,66 / 0,61 0,64

    6 0,59 / 0,78 0,81 / 0,48 0,73 / 0,66 0,54 / 0,81 0,72 / 0,68 0,70

    9RP HOLPLQD DD FXP DP VSXV 3 GDU L GH H[HPSOX 3 FDUH DU

    preVXSXQHF QXP UXOGHWXULWLDUVF GHDvQFRQGL LLOHvQFDUHSUH XOELOHWHORUVFDGHLDUYHQLWXULOH

    FUHVF5H]XOWDWHOHRE LQXWHILQDOYRUFODVLILFDVFHQDULLOHDVWIHO

    S 12 P(0,0,1,0,1,1) = 0,158

    S 14 P(0,1,0,0,1,1) = 0,110

    S 30 P(0,1,0,0,0,1) = 0,097 Nucleul (6 p ! 0,.5)S 01 P(1,1,1,1,1,1) = 0,092

    S 60 P(0,0,1,0,0,0) = 0,070

    :

    S 33 P(1,1,1,0,1,0) = 0,057

    : scenarii contrastante

    S 48 P(0,0,0,1,0,1) = 0,029

    :

    S 18 P(0,1,1,1,0,1) = 0,017

    S 63 P(1,0,0,0,0,0) = 0,014 scenarii posibile dar improbabile

    S 53 P(1,1,0,1,0,0) = 0,004

    S 36 P(0,0,1,1,1,0) = 0,0019RP FDOFXODDSRL PDWULFHD GHHODVWLFLWDWH SH FDUH R SUH]HQW P vQ WDE - 3. pentru o

    YDULD LHDSUREDELOLW LORUp = 0,1.

    Tab. 3.3. - 3. Matricea de elasticitate.

    1 2 3 4 5 6 6~~1 - 0,12 - 0,24 - 0,47 - 0,23 - 0,54 1,60

    2 0,4 - 1,1 (**) 0,24 (*) - 0,71 - 0,21 2,66

    3 - 0,28 - 0,96 - 0,64 - 0,74 - 0,64 3,26

    4 - 0,37 - 0,20(*) - 0,39 - 0,30 - 0,61 1,87

    5 - 0,13(*) - 0,71 - 0,74 - 0,26 - 0,69 2,53

    6 - 1,32(**) - 0,09(*) - 0,73 - 1,60(**) - 0,76 4,506~~ 2,50 2,08 3,20 3,21 2,74 2,69