94214034 Analiza Mediul Cert Si Analiza Mediului Incert Transgaz SA

7/26/2019 94214034 Analiza Mediul Cert Si Analiza Mediului Incert Transgaz SA

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Calculele diagnosticului financiar

Indicator 2008 2009 2010

FR 121,333,612.00 -34,615,624.00 -93,170,507.00

NFR 33,334,496.00 -56,595,060.00 176,046,714.00TN 87,999,116.00 -60,056,622.00 -82,876,207.00

CF -148,055,738.00 -22,819,585.00

A.Varianta franceza

Indicator 2008 2009 2010

MC 0.00 0.00 0.00

PE 1,123,830,022.00 1,193,307,001.00 1,317,859,066.00

VA 758,895,767.00 876,114,549.00 994,232,361.00

EBE 426,325,509.00 526,640,133.00 591,805,532.00

RE 280,943,159.00 345,149,578.00 443,664,112.00

RF 4,199,475.00 16,133,927.00 7,840,409.00

RB 285,142,634.00 361,283,505.00 451,504,521.00

RN 239,519,812.56 303,478,144.20 379,263,797.64

B.Varianta anglo-saxona

Indicator 2008 2009 2010

EBITDA 434,070,996.00 567,443,040.00 631,358,556.00

EBIT 347,863,200.00 436,576,569.00 532,118,165.00EBT 331,278,178.00 423,931,469.00 526,656,056.00

RN 285,142,634.00 361,281,505.00 451,504,521.00

Indicator 2008 2009 2010CFD 493,694,893.00 338,486,976.00

Indicator 2008 2009 2010

ROE 0.152531885 0.136485496 0.159244294

Rec 0.117481505 0.112256954 0.132078588Gr indat 0.210929341 0.182456615 0.179081949

Levier 0.267313628 0.223176675 0.218148388

L generala 1.718976723 1.415525104 1.564990064

L rapida 1.603031826 1.311755602 1.487566111

L imediata 1.487086929 1.207986099 1.410142158

1. Analiza echilibrului fin

2. Analiza performantei financiare p

3.Analiza fluxuri

4.Diagnosticul rent


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Formula de calcul

FR=CPR + Dat > 1an - Imobilizari

NFR = Active circulante Disponibilitati Datorii < 1anTN=FR-NFR

CF=TN=TN1-TN0

Formula de calcul

MC=Venituri din vanzarea marfurilor-Cheltuieli privind marfurile

PE=Productia vanduta+Variatia stocurilor+Productia imobilizata

VA=MC+PE-Consumuri externeEBE=VA+ven din subventii-ch cu personalul-ch cu alte impozite,taxe si

varsaminte asimilate

RE=EBE+alt ven din exploatare-alte cheltuieli din exploatare

RF=Ven financiare-Chelt financiare

RC=RE+RFRN=RB-Impozit pe profit

Formula de calculEBITDA=Ven tot-chelt tot-ch cu dob-ch cu impz/profit-ajust de valoare

-ajustari pv provizioanele

EBIT=EBITDA-Ajust de valoare-Ajust pv provizioaneleEBT=EBIT-Chelt cu dob

RN=EBT-Impozit pe profit

Formula de calculPN+Dobanzi-(Imob1-Imob0)-(Acirc1-Acirc0-Dat1an)/(CPR+Dat>1an)

Levier=(Dat>1an)/CPR

Lichiditate generala=Active curente/Pasive curente

Lichiditate rapida=(Active curente-Stocuri)/Pasive curente

Lichiditate imediata=(Active curente -Stocuri-Creante)/Pasive curente

anciar pe baza bilantului

e baza contului de profit si pierdere

lor de trezorerie

bilitatii si al riscului


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1.1.2008 31.12.2008 31.12.2009

6 497.865.672 496,254,194 496,083,022

8 53.846.385 76,536,578 74,398,001

9 6.277.296 8,163,324 7,987,438

10 101.205.611 219 238 909 434,997,400

11 1.536.914.804 2,183,623,309 2,441,455,964

18 939,496 1,358,401 19,180,669

35 573.719.841 597,873,208 476,824,992

20 30.188.259 35,798,080 26,691,646

21 1.091.194 4,495,600 8,189,652

22 26,964 2,266 -

24 31.320.289 40,326,519 34,955,150

30 175.780.842 228,685,324 245,303,577

33 0 112,130,276 -

34 366.618.710 216,731,089 196,566,265

36 866.461 873,297 1,340,179

45 311.163.974 347,807,623 336,853,787

46 259.097.372 249,253,607 141,211,185

47 2.294.817.344 2,930,489,511 3,097,930,840

56 608.662.481 584,884,716 527,448,777

60 27.173.940 29,675,456 31,286,516

66 96.373.889 129605270 175,927,548

70 117.738.440 117738440 117738440

71 251.933.300 0 -

72 98.309.305 586393642 550825229

I. Capital

II. Prime de capital

III. Rezerve din

reevaluare

J. CAPITAL SI REZERVE

Total stocuri:

II. Creante

III. Investitii pe termen

IV. Casa si conturi la banci

C. CHELTUIELI IN AVANS

D. DATORII: Sumele care

trebuie platite intr-o

perioada de pana la un an:

E. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE /

DATORII CURENTE NETE

F. TOTAL ACTIVE MINUS

DATORII CURENTE

G. DATORII: Sumele care

trebuie platite intr-o

perioada mai mare de unan:

H. PROVIZIOANE

I. VENITURI IN AVANS:

I. Stocuri

1. Materii prime si materiale

consumabile

2. Productia in curs de

executie

3. Produse finite si marfuri

4. Avansuri pentru

cumparari stocuri23 13,872 30,573 73,852

B. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE

I. Imobilizari necorporale

II.Imobilizari corporale

1. Terenuri si constructii 7 1.375.585.512 1,879,684,498 1,924,073,125

2. Instalatii tehnice si masini

3. Alte instalatii, utilaje si

mobilier

4. Avansuri si imobilizari

corporale in curs

Total imobilizari

III. Imobilizari financiare

Denumirea indicatorului Nr. rd.SOLD LA:

A. ACTIVE IMOBILIZATE 19 2.035.719.972,00 2,681,235,904 2,956,719,655


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77 888.133.215 1255277282 1397977997

78 - - -

79

-

- -

80-

- -

81 - - -

82 10.407.110 10,407,110 1,804,469

83 224.006.454 239,007,090 298,631,541

84 - - -

85 2.781.614 - -

87 - - -

88 1.566.931.990 2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738

1.566.931.990

Patrimoniul public

CAPITALURI - TOTAL

Sold D

Repartizarea profitului

CAPITALURI PROPRII -

TOTAL (rd. 70+71+72+77-

78+79-80+81-82+83-84-

85)

86 2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738

Sold C

IV. Rezerve

Actiuni proprii

Castiguri legate de

instrumentele de

capitaluri proprii

Pierderi legate de

instrumentele decapitaluri proprii

V. Profitul sau pierderea reportat:

Sold C

Sold D

VI. Profitul sau pierderea exercitiului financiar:


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31.12.2010

497,791,432

78,829,250

7,295,310

396,222,107

2,731,187,567

46,091,817

558,979,824

20,992,549

6,636,035

-

27,654,123

333,719,058

171,851,407

25,755,236

1,540,861

357,177,874

203,263,326

3,478,334,142

564,224,722

31,249,312

296,513,318

117738440

-

514995580

25,539

2,248,840,900

3,275,070,816


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1579143738

-

-

-

-

1,804,469

376,352,986

-

-

2,586,426,275

2,586,426,275


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31.12.2008 31.12.2009 31.12.2010

1. Cifra de afaceri neta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932

Productia vanduta 1,119,389,990 1,187,350,293 1,312,997,932

Venituri din vanzarea

marfurilor0 0 0

Venituri din dobanzi

inregistrate de entitatile

alcaror obiect de activitate

il constituie leasingul

0 0 0

Venituri din subventii de

exploatare aferente cifrei de

afaceri nete

0 0 0

2.Variatia stocurilor de

produse finite si a

productiei in curs de

executieSold C 3,404,406 3,694,052 0

Sold D 0 0 1,553,6173.Productia realizata de

entitate pentru scopurile

sale proprii si

capitalizata

1,035,626 2,262,656 6,414,751

4.Alte venituri din

exploatare14,488,080 26,707,803 25,074,305

VENITURI DIN

EXPLOATARE TOTAL1,138,318,102 1,220,014,804 1,342,933,371

5.a)Cheltuieli cu materii

prime si materiale

consumabile

214,797,022 171,736,850 154,042,611

Alte cheltuieli materiale 4,696,015 4,272,567 4,400,391b)Alte cheltuieli

externe(cu energia si

apa)

4,562,142 5,160,003 5,512,957

c)Cheltuieli privind

marfurile0 0 0

6.Cheltuieli cu personalul

din care:208,185,701 224,549,127 250,644,153

a)Salarii si indemnizatii 164,565,436 175,376,233 194,404,585

b)Cheltuieli cu

asigurarile si protectia

sociala

43,620,265 49,172,894 56,239,568

7.a)Ajustari de valoareprivind imobilizarile

corporale si necorporale

86,831,300 127,557,350 135,266,706

a.1)Cheltuieli 86,931,300 127,557,350 135,266,706

a.2)Venituri 0 0 0

b)Ajustari de valoare

privind activele

circulante

-3,125,020 1,698,061 -35,989,111

b.1)Cheltuieli 11,360,276 14,273,550 8,169,746

Denumirea indicatoruluiREALIZARI AFERENTE PERIOADEI DE RAPORTARE


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b.2)Venituri 14,485,296 12,575,409 11,158,857

8.Alte cheltuieli de

exploatare338,826,267 338,280,208 385,428,756

8.1.Cheltuieli privind

prestatiile externe140,879,076 136,023,032 159,670,746

8.2.Cheltuieli cu alte

impozite,taxe si

varsaminte asimilate

124,384,557 124,925,289 151,782,676

8.3.Cheltuieli cu

despagubiri,donatii si

active cedate

73,562,634 77,331,887 73,975,334

Cheltuieli privind

dobanzile de refinantare

inregistrate de entitatile

al caror obiect de

activitate il constituie

leasin ul

0 0 0

Ajustari privind

provizioanele2,501,516 1,611,060 -37,204

Cheltuieli 9,797,931 9,130,682 7,818,207Venituri 7,296,415 7,519,226 7,855,411

CHELTUIELI DE

EXPLOATARE TOTAL857,374,943 874,867,226 899,269,259

PROFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA DIN

EXPLOATARE

PROFIT 280,943,159 345,147,578 443,664,112

PIERDERE 0 0 0

9.Venituri din interese de

participare0 0 0

-din care,venituri

obtinute de la entitatileafiliate

0 0 0

10.Venituri din alte

investitii si imprumuturi

care fac parte din

activele imobilizate

38 100 171

-din care,veniturile

obtinute de la entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

11.Venituri din dobanzi 31,066,183 34,717,805 14,836,179

-din care veniturile

obtinute de la entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

Alte venituri financiare 6,501,895 3,735,189 19,340,175

VENITURI FINANCIARE

TOTAL37,568,116 38,453,094 34,176,525

12.Ajustari de valoare

privind imobilizarile

financiare si investitiile

detinute ca active

circulante

-997 0 0

-Cheltuieli 0 0 0


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-Venituri 997 0 0

13.Cheltuieli privind

dobanzile16,585,022 12,645,100 5,462,109

-din care cheltuieli in

relatia cu entitatile

afiliate

0 0 0

Alte cheltuieli financiare 16,784,616 9,674,067 20,874,007

CHELTUIELI FINANCIARE

TOTAL33,368,641 22,319,167 26,336,116

PTOFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA FINANCIARA

-Profit 4,199,475 16,133,927 7,840,409

-Pierdere 0 0 0

14.Profitul sau pierderea

curenta

-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521

- pierdere 0 0 0

15.Venituri extraordinare 0 0 0

16.Cheltuieli

extraordinare0 0 0

17.Profitul sau pierderea

sin activitatea

extraordinara

-profit 0 0 0

- pierdere 0 0 0

VENITURI TOTALE 1,175,886,218 1,258,467,898 1,377,109,896

CHELTUIELI TOTALE 890,743,584 897,186,393 925,605,375

PROFITUL SAUPIERDEREA BRUTA

-profit 285,142,634 361,281,505 451,504,521

-perdere 0 0 0

18.Impozitul pe profit 46,135,544 62,649,964 75,151,535

19.Alte impozite

nereprezentate la

elemente;e de mai sus

0 0 0

20PROFITUL SAU

PIERDEREA NETA A

EXERCITIULUI

FINANCIAR

-PROFIT 239,007,090 298,631,541 376,352,986-PIERDERE 0 0 0


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cv cf

925,382,226 25,901,301

-200,000,000

0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000


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12/42


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Series3

Series2

Series1


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An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 179,895,073.32 198,931,908.00

ChVariabile 114,654,525.95 126,787,483.31 140,204,373.03

ChFixe 3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91

EBE 44,816,285.06 49,898,428.10 55,518,373.06

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 38,158,785.06 43,240,928.10 48,860,873.06

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 38,158,785.06 43,240,928.10 48,860,873.06

Impozit pe profit 6,105,405.61 6,918,548.50 7,817,739.69

PN 32,053,379.45 36,322,379.60 41,043,133.37

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 38,710,879.45 42,979,879.60 47,700,633.37

K 0.1043025

1+K 1.104303 1.219484 1.346679

CFD ACTUALIZAT 35,054,597.32 35,244,315.79 35,420,931.62

Calcul VAN 134,625,803.35

CFD I0 1 2

CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica

CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)

PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit

Calculul amortizarii anuale


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CFDn 46,630,000.00 38,710,879.45 42,979,879.60

CFDa -46,630,000.00 35,054,597.32 35,244,315.79

Indicator Valoare An

VAN 134,625,803.35 1

IP 3.887107084 2

RIR 71% 3TRn 2 ani si 96 zile 4

TRa 2 ani si 268 zile 5

calcul TRn


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81

Element Valoare ProcentCA2010 1,312,997,932.00 -

Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

219,983,256.29 243,262,297.81 9,500,000.00

155,041,063.22 171,447,799.85 0.00

3,209,161.91 3,209,161.91 0.00

61,733,031.16 68,605,336.05 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

55,075,531.16 68,605,336.05 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

55,075,531.16 68,605,336.05 9,500,000.00

8,812,084.99 10,976,853.77 1,520,000.00

46,263,446.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

52,920,946.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00

1.487141 1.642254 1.642254i0

35,585,689.00 35,091,093.78 4,859,175.83 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00

3 4 5 VR

Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010


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47,700,633.37 52,920,946.17 57,628,482.29 7,980,000.00

35,420,931.62 35,585,689.00 35,091,093.78 4,859,175.83

CFDn CFDncum An CFDa

38,710,879.45 22,564,330.26 1 35,054,597.32

42,979,879.60 65,544,209.86 >I0 2 35,244,315.79

47,700,633.37 113,244,843.23 3 35,420,931.6252,920,946.17 166,165,789.41 4 35,585,689.00

57,628,482.29 223,794,271.69 5 35,091,093.78

2 ani 95.54 zile calcul TRa 2 ani

96.00 zile


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19/42

CFDacum

20,433,106.20

55,677,421.99 >I0

91,098,353.61126,684,042.61

161,775,136.39

267.59 zile

268.00 zile


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BET-C Indicator Valoare(Lei) Rf 6%

30.11.2011 2,585.64 - BETA i 0,75

29.11.2011 2,558.59 -0.01046 E(RM) 0.00093

28.11.2011 2,549.68 -0.00348

25.11.2011 2,586.31 0.014367

24.11.2011 2,584.46 -0.00072

23.11.2011 2,620.85 0.01408 E(Ri)=Rf-Bi(E(RM)-Rf)22.11.2011 2,658.61 0.014408 E(Ri)=k

21.11.2011 2,678.70 0.007557 =>k=0.06-0.75(0.00093-0.06)

18.11.2011 2,706.68 0.010445 0.10430317.11.2011 2,732.97 0.009713

16.11.2011 2,749.54 0.006063

15.11.2011 2,755.01 0.001989

14.11.2011 2,764.05 0.003281

11.11.2011 2,780.34 0.00589410.11.2011 2,757.49 -0.00822

09.11.2011 2,770.44 0.004696

08.11.2011 2,776.41 0.002155

07.11.2011 2,777.34 0.00033504.11.2011 2,754.68 -0.00816

03.11.2011 2,724.70 -0.01088

02.11.2011 2,719.09 -0.00206

01.11.2011 2,730.66 0.004255

31.10.2011 2,795.41 0.023712

28.10.2011 2,838.51 0.015418

27.10.2011 2,852.16 0.00480926.10.2011 2,752.62 -0.034925.10.2011 2,754.24 0.000589

24.10.2011 2,764.37 0.003678

21.10.2011 2,757.07 -0.00264

20.10.2011 2,724.65 -0.0117619.10.2011 2,736.85 0.004478

18.10.2011 2,713.68 -0.00847

17.10.2011 2,739.45 0.009496

14.10.2011 2,724.26 -0.00554

13.10.2011 2,702.67 -0.0079312.10.2011 2,737.60 0.01292411.10.2011 2,732.27 -0.00195

10.10.2011 2,715.05 -0.0063

07.10.2011 2,747.02 0.011775

06.10.2011 2,627.23 -0.04361

05.10.2011 2,579.67 -0.0181

04.10.2011 2,565.37 -0.00554

03.10.2011 2,600.03 0.013511

30.09.2011 2,648.19 0.018523

29.09.2011 2,661.96 0.005228.09.2011 2,643.38 -0.00698

27.09.2011 2,671.84 0.010767

26.09.2011 2,596.95 -0.02803

23.09.2011 2,618.48 0.00829

22.09.2011 2,662.06 0.016643

21.09.2011 2,742.50 0.030217

20.09.2011 2,725.87 -0.00606

Data Indice BET-

C

Calculul ratei de actualizare ca fiin

Sursa

http://www.kmarket.ro/

http://www.bvb.ro/Indic

http://www.bvb.ro/Liste
http://www.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGNhttp://www.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011http://www.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1http://www.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1http://www.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011http://www.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN


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19.09.2011 2,709.49 -0.00601

16.09.2011 2,735.47 0.009589

15.09.2011 2,756.67 0.00775

14.09.2011 2,746.67 -0.00363

13.09.2011 2,711.76 -0.01271

12.09.2011 2,737.05 0.009326

09.09.2011 2,841.75 0.038253

08.09.2011 2,868.53 0.009424

07.09.2011 2,879.62 0.003866

06.09.2011 2,803.42 -0.02646

05.09.2011 2,805.83 0.00086

02.09.2011 2,867.95 0.02214

01.09.2011 2,916.15 0.01680631.08.2011 2,917.41 0.00043230.08.2011 2,867.52 -0.0171

29.08.2011 2,862.96 -0.00159

26.08.2011 2,798.17 -0.02263

25.08.2011 2,817.99 0.007083

24.08.2011 2,803.65 -0.00509

23.08.2011 2,779.13 -0.00875

22.08.2011 2,761.88 -0.0062119.08.2011 2,730.20 -0.0114718.08.2011 2,796.60 0.02432117.08.2011 2,898.65 0.036491

16.08.2011 2,854.80 -0.01513

12.08.2011 2,865.28 0.003671

11.08.2011 2,735.79 -0.04519

10.08.2011 2,752.11 0.005965

09.08.2011 2,666.86 -0.03098

08.08.2011 2,759.96 0.03491

05.08.2011 2,980.86 0.080037

04.08.2011 3,131.60 0.050569

03.08.2011 3,172.90 0.01318802.08.2011 3,230.15 0.018043

01.08.2011 3,276.17 0.014247

29.07.2011 3,221.67 -0.01664

28.07.2011 3,226.01 0.001347

27.07.2011 3,229.19 0.000986

26.07.2011 3,256.70 0.008519

25.07.2011 3,261.44 0.001455

22.07.2011 3,274.70 0.004066

21.07.2011 3,256.41 -0.00559

20.07.2011 3,254.55 -0.00057

19.07.2011 3,247.98 -0.00202

18.07.2011 3,240.00 -0.00246

15.07.2011 3,288.38 0.014932

14.07.2011 3,277.44 -0.00333

13.07.2011 3,306.28 0.0088

12.07.2011 3,301.19 -0.00154

11.07.2011 3,351.59 0.015267

08.07.2011 3,383.29 0.009458

07.07.2011 3,400.04 0.004951

06.07.2011 3,397.01 -0.00089

05.07.2011 3,415.94 0.00557304.07.2011 3,351.16 -0.01896


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01.07.2011 3,318.73 -0.00968

30.06.2011 3,312.27 -0.00195

29.06.2011 3,320.98 0.00263

28.06.2011 3,310.01 -0.0033

27.06.2011 3,278.59 -0.00949

24.06.2011 3,312.73 0.010413

23.06.2011 3,310.64 -0.00063

22.06.2011 3,366.38 0.016837

21.06.2011 3,357.50 -0.00264

20.06.2011 3,343.71 -0.00411

17.06.2011 3,353.58 0.002952

16.06.2011 3,349.16 -0.00132

15.06.2011 3,390.12 0.0122314.06.2011 3,401.11 0.00324210.06.2011 3,380.75 -0.00599

09.06.2011 3,400.90 0.00596

08.06.2011 3,430.08 0.00858

07.06.2011 3,388.22 -0.0122

06.06.2011 3,353.04 -0.01038

03.06.2011 3,313.12 -0.01191

02.06.2011 3,307.82 -0.001601.06.2011 3,342.86 0.01059331.05.2011 3,285.94 -0.0170330.05.2011 3,275.12 -0.00329

27.05.2011 3,282.94 0.002388

26.05.2011 3,260.77 -0.00675

25.05.2011 3,246.71 -0.00431

24.05.2011 3,284.95 0.011778

23.05.2011 3,308.79 0.007257

20.05.2011 3,342.80 0.010279

19.05.2011 3,340.35 -0.00073

18.05.2011 3,342.50 0.000644

17.05.2011 3,353.29 0.00322816.05.2011 3,385.00 0.009456

13.05.2011 3,397.81 0.003784

12.05.2011 3,354.95 -0.01261

11.05.2011 3,372.45 0.005216

10.05.2011 3,405.11 0.009684

09.05.2011 3,431.89 0.007865

06.05.2011 3,437.91 0.001754

05.05.2011 3,424.47 -0.00391

04.05.2011 3,426.88 0.000704

03.05.2011 3,422.04 -0.00141

02.05.2011 3,481.33 0.017326

29.04.2011 3,528.33 0.013501

28.04.2011 3,558.14 0.008449

27.04.2011 3,530.61 -0.00774

26.04.2011 3,508.09 -0.00638

22.04.2011 3,519.62 0.003287

21.04.2011 3,501.96 -0.00502

20.04.2011 3,534.98 0.009429

19.04.2011 3,493.38 -0.01177

18.04.2011 3,509.41 0.004589

15.04.2011 3,532.67 0.00662814.04.2011 3,552.67 0.005661


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13.04.2011 3,578.17 0.007178

12.04.2011 3,549.77 -0.00794

11.04.2011 3,584.13 0.00968

08.04.2011 3,628.25 0.01231

07.04.2011 3,596.47 -0.00876

06.04.2011 3,569.61 -0.00747

05.04.2011 3,547.63 -0.00616

04.04.2011 3,525.54 -0.00623

01.04.2011 3,553.98 0.008067

31.03.2011 3,524.27 -0.00836

30.03.2011 3,537.63 0.003791

29.03.2011 3,539.62 0.000563

28.03.2011 3,567.15 0.00777825.03.2011 3,596.12 0.00812124.03.2011 3,500.78 -0.02651

23.03.2011 3,466.73 -0.00973

22.03.2011 3,468.60 0.000539

21.03.2011 3,441.86 -0.00771

18.03.2011 3,372.01 -0.02029

17.03.2011 3,409.42 0.011094

16.03.2011 3,393.69 -0.0046115.03.2011 3,337.51 -0.0165514.03.2011 3,425.67 0.02641511.03.2011 3,428.66 0.000873

10.03.2011 3,463.92 0.010284

09.03.2011 3,427.05 -0.01064

08.03.2011 3,410.41 -0.00486

07.03.2011 3,410.05 -0.00011

04.03.2011 3,403.78 -0.00184

03.03.2011 3,400.35 -0.00101

02.03.2011 3,358.13 -0.01242

01.03.2011 3,373.49 0.004574

28.02.2011 3,412.29 0.01150125.02.2011 3,337.51 -0.02191

24.02.2011 3,288.92 -0.01456

23.02.2011 3,344.78 0.016984

22.02.2011 3,293.18 -0.01543

21.02.2011 3,302.21 0.002742

18.02.2011 3,327.93 0.007789

17.02.2011 3,300.94 -0.00811

16.02.2011 3,278.29 -0.00686

15.02.2011 3,296.69 0.005613

14.02.2011 3,288.83 -0.00238

11.02.2011 3,276.50 -0.00375

10.02.2011 3,308.53 0.009776

09.02.2011 3,348.77 0.012163

08.02.2011 3,322.54 -0.00783

07.02.2011 3,327.01 0.001345

04.02.2011 3,303.52 -0.00706

03.02.2011 3,327.63 0.007298

02.02.2011 3,360.16 0.009776

01.02.2011 3,297.08 -0.01877

31.01.2011 3,293.47 -0.00109

28.01.2011 3,336.46 0.01305327.01.2011 3,354.92 0.005533


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26.01.2011 3,356.05 0.000337

25.01.2011 3,374.10 0.005378

24.01.2011 3,368.36 -0.0017

21.01.2011 3,359.58 -0.00261

20.01.2011 3,399.29 0.01182

19.01.2011 3,422.75 0.006901

18.01.2011 3,405.77 -0.00496

17.01.2011 3,393.23 -0.00368

14.01.2011 3,380.33 -0.0038

13.01.2011 3,385.97 0.001668

12.01.2011 3,382.19 -0.00112

11.01.2011 3,327.92 -0.01605

10.01.2011 3,291.20 -0.0110307.01.2011 3,272.99 -0.0055306.01.2011 3,251.26 -0.00664

05.01.2011 3,180.11 -0.02188

04.01.2011 3,183.12 0.000947

03.01.2011 3,147.95 -0.01105

0.00093=>E(Rm)=


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d o rata fara risc +prima de risc

actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN

esAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011

dCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1


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Stare

economica

Probabilitate de

aparitie(%)VAN

Declin 20.00% 47,588,322.66

Stabilitate 60.00% 134,625,803.35

Crestere 20.00% 190,256,497.26

Factor Declin Stabilitate Crestere

CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 3,209,161.91 1,500,000.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Declin 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67

Stabilitate 38,710,879.45 44,136,086.34 48,856,840.11 54,077,152.91 58,784,689.02

Crestere 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54

E(VAN) = 128,344,445.99

= 45,766,843.67

e-3 -8,956,085 0.0015

e-2 36,810,759 0.025

e-1 82,577,602 0.16

e 128,344,446 0.627

e+1 174,111,290 0.16

e+2 219,878,133 0.025e+3 265,644,977 0.0015

/E 0.356593878


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47,588,322.66 -80,756,123.33 6,521,551,455,691,960.00 1,304,310,291,138,390.00

134,625,803.35 6,281,357.35 39,455,450,209,542.90 23,673,270,125,725.70

190,256,497.26 61,912,051.27 3,833,102,092,493,090.00 766,620,418,498,618.00

2,094,603,979,762,740.00

[ ] * PVAN VAN - E(VAN) ()2

()2

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

47,588,322.66 134,625,803.35 190,256,497.26

PRO

BABILITATI

VAN


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CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00

An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 176,507,770.61 191,510,931.12

ChVariabile 136,651,177.25 148,266,527.32 160,869,182.14

ChFixe 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00

EBE 23,878,795.67 26,091,243.30 28,491,748.98

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 17,221,295.67 19,433,743.30 21,834,248.98


PN 14,465,888.36 16,324,344.37 18,340,769.14

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14

K 0.1150

1+K 1.1150 1.243225 1.386196

CFD ACTUALIZAT 18,944,742.92 18,485,667.82 18,033,720.63

Calcul VAN 47,588,322.66

CFD I0 1 2


DECLIN


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CFDn 46,630,000.00 21,123,388.36 22,981,844.37

CFDa -46,630,000.00 18,944,742.92 18,485,667.82


VAN 47,588,322.66 1

IP 2.020551633 2

RIR 28.51% 3TRn 2 ani si 172 zile 4

TRa 2 ani si 352zile 5

calcul TRn


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81


Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

207,789,360.26 225,451,455.88 9,500,000.00

174,543,062.62 189,379,222.94 0.00

2,150,000.00 2,150,000.00 0.00

31,096,297.64 33,922,232.94 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

24,438,797.64 33,922,232.94 9,500,000.00

3,910,207.62 5,427,557.27 1,520,000.00

20,528,590.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00

1.545608 1.723353 1.723353i0

17,589,248.36 16,534,435.84 4,630,507.10 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00

3 4 5 VR


Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA


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24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67 7,980,000.00

18,033,720.63 17,589,248.36 16,534,435.84 4,630,507.10


21,123,388.36 11,745,653.70 1 18,944,742.92

22,981,844.37 34,727,498.07 2 18,485,667.82

24,998,269.14 59,725,767.21 >I0 3 18,033,720.6327,186,090.02 86,911,857.23 4 17,589,248.36

28,494,675.67 115,406,532.90 5 16,534,435.84

2 ani 171.41 zile calcul TRa 2 ani

172.00 zile


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33/42

CFDacum

10,534,218.56

29,019,886.38

47,053,607.01 >I064,642,855.36

81,177,291.20

351.54 zile

352.00 zile


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CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 1,832,725.32 1,500,000.00

An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 182,201,569.67 204,065,758.03

ChVariabile 105,741,982.40 118,431,020.28 132,642,742.72

ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00

EBE 55,437,990.52 62,270,549.38 69,923,015.31

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 48,780,490.52 55,613,049.38 63,265,515.31


PN 40,975,612.04 46,714,961.48 53,143,032.86

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86

K 0.0880

1+K 1.0880 1.183744 1.287913

CFD ACTUALIZAT 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19 46,432,104.45

Calcul VAN 190,256,497.26

CFD I0 1 2

CRESTERE



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CFDn 46,630,000.00 47,633,112.04 53,372,461.48

CFDa -46,630,000.00 43,780,433.86 45,087,841.19


VAN 190,256,497.26 1

IP 5.080130758 2

RIR 92.95% 3TRn 1 an si 132 zile 4

TRa 1 an si 174 zile 5

calcul TRn


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81


Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

228,553,648.99 255,980,086.87 9,500,000.00

148,559,871.84 166,387,056.46 0.00

1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00

78,493,777.15 88,093,030.40 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

71,836,277.15 88,093,030.40 9,500,000.00

11,493,804.34 14,094,884.86 1,520,000.00

60,342,472.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00

1.401250 1.524560 1.524560i0

47,814,436.83 48,537,383.29 5,234,297.64 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00

3 4 5 VR


Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA


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59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54 7,980,000.00

46,432,104.45 47,814,436.83 48,537,383.29 5,234,297.64


47,633,112.04 27,119,317.47 1 43,780,433.86

53,372,461.48 80,491,778.95>I0 2 45,087,841.19

59,800,532.86 140,292,311.81 3 46,432,104.4566,999,972.80 207,292,284.61 4 47,814,436.83

73,998,145.54 281,290,430.15 5 48,537,383.29

1 an 131.60 zile calcul TRa 1 an

132.00 zile


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39/42

CFDacum

24,925,843.26

70,013,684.45>I0

116,445,788.91164,260,225.74

212,797,609.03

173.29 zile

174.00 zile


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Analiza sensibilitatii

Factor Pesimist Baza Optimist

CA 8.50% 10.58% 12%

k 11.50% 10.43% 8.80%

%CV in CA 84.00% 70.48% 65%

CF 2,150,000.00 3,209,161.91 1,500,000.00

tabel VAN

Factor Pesimist Baza Optimist

CA 127,847,730.26 139,389,673.55

k 129,380,535.83 143,096,753.93

%CV in CA 50,735,286.08 168,616,335.74

CF 137,961,705.70 140,008,924.84

Elasticitati

Elasticitate VAN

Pesimist-Cert Optimist-Cert media

E(VAN/CA) 0.25587832 0.264112163 0.259995241

E(VAN/k) -0.379884661 -0.402572727 -0.391228694

E(VAN/%CV) -3.248023757 -3.248023757 -3.248023757

E(VAN/CF) -0.075078277 -0.075078277 -0.075078277

Ierarhizarea Elasticitati media

E(VAN/%CV) 3.248023757

E(VAN/k) 0.391228694

E(VAN/CA) 0.259995241

E(VAN/CF) 0.075078277

134,625,803.35


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An Vi Aa VramdeAm

1 26,630,000 6,657,500 19,972,500

2 26,630,000 6,657,500 13,315,000

3 26,630,000 6,657,500 6,657,5004 26,630,000 6,657,500 0

Element 1 2 3

CA 162,679,972.92 179,895,073.32 198,931,908.00

ChVariabile 114,654,525.95 126,787,483.31 140,204,373.03

ChFixe 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00

EBE 46,525,446.97 51,607,590.01 57,227,534.97

Amortizare 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00 6,657,500.00

EBIT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97

Dobanzi 0.00 0.00 0.00

EBT 39,867,946.97 44,950,090.01 50,570,034.97


PN 33,489,075.45 37,758,075.60 42,478,829.37

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

Acnete 0.00 0.00 0.00

CFD 40,146,575.45 44,415,575.60 49,136,329.37

K 0.1043025

1+K 1.104303 1.219484 1.346679

CFD ACTUALIZAT 36,354,690.36 36,421,613.72 36,487,032.56

Calcul VAN 140,008,924.84


CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica

CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)

PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit


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CA2009 1,187,350,293

CA2010 1,312,997,932

g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0 0.105821879

PN2010 376,352,986 I0 46,630,000.00

CA2010 1,312,997,932 CA2011 162,679,972.92

2011 162,679,972.92

2012 179,895,073.32

2013 198,931,908.00

2014 219,983,256.29

2015 243,262,297.81


Chfixe2010 25,901,301.00 0.0197

ChVariabile2010 925,382,226.00 0.7048

4 5 VR

219,983,256.29 243,262,297.81 9,500,000.00

155,041,063.22 171,447,799.85 0.00

1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 0.00

63,442,193.07 70,314,497.96 0.00

6,657,500.00 0.00 0.00

56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

56,784,693.07 70,314,497.96 9,500,000.00

9,085,550.89 11,250,319.67 1,520,000.00

47,699,142.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

54,356,642.17 59,064,178.29 7,980,000.00

1.487141 1.642254 1.642254i0

36,551,095.61 35,965,316.75 4,859,175.83 46,630,000.00 -46,630,000.00


Calcul g

Calcul CA2011

Estimare CA

94214034 Analiza Mediul Cert Si Analiza Mediului Incert Transgaz SA

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Transcript of 94214034 Analiza Mediul Cert Si Analiza Mediului Incert Transgaz SA